Scouting the Draft: Post First Round Thoughts

Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St).  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 207 lbs.

2018:  .321/.419/.604, 8 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 32 K, 12.56 BB%, 14.35 K%, 223 PA.
2019:  .288/.390/.513, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 41 BB, 43 K, 14.55 BB%, 15.25 K%, 282 PA.
2020:  .296/.466/.685, 3 2B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 23.29 BB%, 24.66 K%, 73 PA.

If you would like to read my pre-draft profile on Patrick Bailey, you can find it linked to the left, posted December 28, 2019.  Bailey is a plus defensive catcher who started switch-hitting at age 11 when a coach told him the second fastest route to the major leagues is switch-hitting catcher.  The fastest?  LHP!  I had Bailey ranked #10 on my draft board and had him mock drafted to the White Sox at #11 along with most other late mock drafts.  Fangraphs had him ranked at #12 and MLB Pipeline had him at #17.  So obviously, I think the Giants got nice value with the pick.  I mean, I had only 12 players in the entire draft ranked higher than #13 and Bailey was one of them!  Of course, I also had 3 other players ranked higher than Bailey who were also available at #13, Bryse Jarvis RHP, Garrett Mitchell OF, Cole Wilcox RHP.  Jarvis lasted until #18 to the D'Backs, Mitchell fell to #20 to the Mets and Cole Wilcox did not hear his name called on Day 1. So it's likely that Bailey was indeed the BPA on the Giants board here.

So, do you think we are starting to see a type for FZ's first round draft tendencies?  Patrick Bailey and Hunter Bishop are remarkably similar hitters.  Extreme 3 true outcomes! Do you get the idea FZ does not care about BA or K's as long as the OBP and SLG% are there?  That's old school Moneyball there and don't you forget it!

Lots of complaints on other sites about using a first round pick on a catcher when Joey Bart is already in the system.  First of all, Jarvis, Mitchell and Wilcox notwithstanding, Bailey was very likely the highest ranked prospect on the Giants draft board when their turn came.  Best.  Player.  Available!  Simple as that. Secondly, Bailey and Bart are both athletic enough to play other positions at least part of the time so there is room for both on one future roster.  That will be even more true with the almost certain advent of the universal DH.

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Other picks I liked:

Max Meyer RHP, Marlins #3.  Most mocks had Asa Lacy here.  I had Meyer ahead of Lacy so obviously think the Marlins made the right pick.

Bryse Jarvis RHP, D'Backs #18.  Actually I didn't like this pick.  I mean, I love Bryse Jarvis and all, but I hate that he ended up with the D'Backs.  Mike Hazen strikes again!

Jordan Walker 3B, Cardinals #21.  The Cardinals are a savvy organization.  I am pretty stoked that my bullishness on Jordan Walker was validated by the Cardinals taking him at #21 overall.  That might still be undervaluing him.  Some bust potential here, but the ceiling is to die for.

Bobby Miller RHP, Dodgers #29.  Again, I love the player, hate the team.

Justin Lange RHP, Padres #34.  Padres just keep adding high ceiling talent after high ceiling talent.  One of the more projectable HS pitchers in the draft.  Hey Farhan!  You might want to pay attention to what the Padres are doing in the draft because it's working!

Picks I did not like:

Heston Kjerstad OF, Orioles #2.  Hey!  I admit Austin Martin has his warts, but Kjerstad at #2 overall is a huge overdraft.  Kjerstad was mocked to the Pirates on quite a few boards.  The Bucs ended up with Nick Gonzalez.  The Orioles did the Bucs a favor!  Just sayin'

Reid Detmers LHP, Angels.  I actually liked the pick because it guaranteed the Giants would not draft him.  Multiple red flags that his stuff is not going to translate to the majors.

Garrett Crochet LHP, White Sox.  OK, I liked this one too.  Not only did it guarantee the Giants would not draft what I consider a huge injury risk but it enabled the Giants to take Bailey at #13, a player I ranked at #10.

Nick Yorke 2B.  Red Sox.  Truly bizarre!  This was such a bad pick that Dan O'Dowd actually speculated out loud on MLB's own channel that this might be a forfeit pick punting to a compensation pick in next year's draft.  Apparently that is not the case, but we'll see. Wow!

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As Day 2 dawns, let's look at who might be available to the Giants at #49 which is the 13'th pick in the round.  As I have been saying and as I predicted, college hitters have been jumping up the draft and HS hitters have remained surprisingly strong which means pitchers are piling up.  Of the top 15 remaining prospects, just one, Dillon Dingler, is a hitter.  Here's what I have with their placement on my draft board:

9.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Soph eligible).
18.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
24. Dillon Dingler C, College.
25.  Kyle Nicolas RHP, College.
28.  Ian Bedell RHP, College.
29.  Chris McMahon RHP, College.
31.  Franco Aleman RHP, JC.
33.  Tanner Witt RHP, HS(2-way player).
34.  Ryan Hagenow RHP, HS.
38.  Cole Henry RHP, College.
39.  Alex Santos RHP, HS.
40.  Alejandro Rosario RHP, HS.
41.  Nick Griffith LHP, HS.
43.  JT Ginn RHP, College(Soph eligible/TJ).
45.  Dax Fulton LHP, HS(TJ).

Usually when players of Wilcox and Kelley's caliber fall this far, it's because they are unsignable, so they may be effectively off the board for the Giants.