Happy New Year, everybody! We'll celebrate by unveiling DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects.
I want to thank everybody for the discussion of the preliminary list. I ended up adding 3 players I overlooked: Walker Martin, Carson Ragsdale and Carson Seymour. This year's list is particularly challenging as after a clear #1 there is a large second tier with prospects ranging from guys who have appeared in MLB games all the way down to "Dominican Dandies." As always it is a challenge to give relative values to prospects who are close to "graduating" vs younger players who may or may not have higher ceilings, pitchers vs hitters, etc. While rankings have some approximate meaning, I've learned to see them as only a rough ranking and to not worry to much about being too precise with it. The main goal of the exercise is to develop a better understanding of the players who may be future Giants. With that said, on with the list:
1. Bryce Eldridge 1B
2. Grant McCray OF
3. Trevor McDonald RHP
4. James Tibbs III OF
5. Jhonny Level SS
6. Rayner Arias OF
7. Walker Martin SS
8. Carson Whisenhunt LHP
9. Carson Ragsdale RHP
10. Carson Seymour RHP
11. Mason Black RHP
12. Diego Velasquez SS/2B
13. Lisbel Diaz OF
14. Wade Meckler OF
15. Joe Whitman LHP
16. Charlie Szykowny IF
17. Carter Howell OF
18. Sabin Ceballos 3B
19. Bo Davidson OF
20. Dakota Jordan OF
21. John Bertrand LHP
22. Trent Harris RHP
23. Tyler Myrick RHP
24. Juan Sanchez LHP
25. Jack Choate LHP
26. Nick Sinacola RHP
27. Justin Wishkoski 3B
28. Victor Bericoto OF/1B
29. Aeverson Arteaga SS
30. Hayden Wynja LHP
31. Manuel Mercedes RHP
32. Onil Perez C
33. Cesar Perdomo LHP
34. Jonah Cox OF
35. Quinn McDaniel 2B
36. Josh Bostick RHP
37. Scott Bandura OF
38. Cale Lansville RHP
39. Gerelmi Maldonado RHP
40. Ryan Vanderhei RHP
41. Elijah Pleasants RHP
42. Shane Rademacher RHP
43. Drew Cavanaugh C
44. Jeremiah Jenkins 1B
45. Zander Darby SS
46. Robert Hipwell 3B
47. Maui Ahuna SS
48. Jakob Christian OF
49. Hunter Bishop OF
50. Will Bednar RHP
I decided to not do on Honorable Mention list this year. We can add one or two if it turns out we forgot someone who should have made the Top 50.
I will mention a few "Dominican Dandies" as this year's DSL squads looked exceptionally strong compared to previous seasons:
Angel Guzman 1B, Oliver Tejada CF, Evan Estevez LF, Juan Colorado SS, Yohendry Sanchez C, Jesus Alexander C, Argenis Cayama RHP, Frainer Mejia RHP, Randry DeLeon RHP, Albert Jimenez 3B, Santiago Camacho C.
Happy New Year Doc!
ReplyDeleteSeeing 4 pitchers in the top 10 of your list, and considering the pitchers on the 40 man roster > gives me a fair degree of optomism for the year. Yes I would like to the another veteran arms signed for the rotation would be good. If it does not barring a raft of injuries > I believe Buster knows what a good pitcher looks like, and I am feeling buoyant that the Giants can come out of the gate well.
Since this is New Years day > I am going to predict the boys will be in the hunt all season, and assuming Buster is always talking to other teams > he will add as required. Luck, healthy players and the baseball Gods > the Giants make us smile more then frown this year.
Richard in Winnipeg
Hard to argue with this list. Interesting that Black fell below all the Carson brothers.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year!
FWIW: there are still a baker's dozen Giants from pre-FZ, listed in no particular order (the last two have not appeared in the majors):
ReplyDeleteWebb, Ramos, Ty Rogers, Walker, Doval, Luciano, Matos, Hjelle, Rodriguez, Winn, Villar, Bericoto, & Pomares.
Adames is the first post-FZ significant signing of another baker's dozen added this off-season (some of whom were re-signees, originally by FZ).
Good list Doc..and Happy New Year to you and all in the WTGCTT Community! I look forward to the individual recaps and the discussions!
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Is it a coincidence that pitchers are mostly clumped together?
ReplyDeleteOnly #3 McDonald, #15 Whitman, and #50 Bednar are "isolated."
OTOH, 6 of the Top 7, 8 of 9 (#12-20), and 7 in a row (#43-49) are position players.
It does make sense in that pitchers sort of compete with pitchers.
OK, maybe I don't have anything better to do!
If there’s a noteable drop off, would it be fair to say it comes after the top 20?
ReplyDeleteAm curious why these sorts of lists never include Christian Koss. Did I miss something and he's been traded? Is he too old for AAA? Does he have bricks for hands? I am honestly puzzled. Thanks for whatever knowledge you can impart.
ReplyDeleteGood question. Koss has been around awhile and has never really hit enough to project as an MLB level player. Scouting reports I've seen say he's a good fielder at SS which has value in itself. He hit better after a slow start in AAA Sacramento. If he continues to hit he could be considered for a back up SS/utility role. I might add him as an Honorable Mention.
DeleteLast season, Koss tore up the Eastern League in Richmond, with an OPS of 1.079 in 25 games. Then he got promoted, struggled at first then found his footing. If you look at the Giants organizational stats, every AAA player with a better 2024 OPS has spent time on the Big Club. He's next? He is my pick for Dark Horse relevancy this season.
DeleteKoss once hit 3 HRs in a game accounting for all the runs in a 4-0 win.
DeleteHis big problems: age (27) and Giants seem to have SS-2B-3B staffed, if Fitzgerald plays out well. The leading b/u's (Schmitt & Wisely) are younger and on the 40-man roster, as is Villar who is 1-yr older (and without options). Nate Furman (turns 24 mid-season) may move up to Sacramento and be a candidate during 2025.
This assumes that Luciano is moved to the OF.
OTOH, if Koss gets an invite to Spring Training, he could turn the heads with a credible performance.
The Giants don't have near-ready infield candidates in the high minors.
As long as the Giants go with the Wade-Flores platoon at 1B, the infield is pretty set, although
Signing Alonso would change things.
I have been a little leery of Tyler Fitzgerald's 2024 season. He might have been lucky because the BABIP was .380. I think he will have a big dropoff in batting average down to .240 unless he gets away from the launch angle-three outcomes approach. The red flag is the 31.7% strikeout percentage. Fitzgerald may have to re-invent himself a bit because I don't think his 2024 success will carry over. Buster had a talk with Fitz and I think he was chosen to be the starting second baseman out of the gate so I hope I am wrong.
DeleteBleacher Report ranked the Giants’ farm system #30 out of 30. Seems a little low?
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I don't put a lot of stock in Bleacher Report for anything. Secondly, I have come to pretty much ignore all system rankings. It's not surprising the Giants system would rank low on paper right now due to 9 players "graduating" last year. Also many of their better prospects are still in the lower minors which rankings tend to discount, possibly more than they should. I think their farm system is fine. Hopefully they will add Josuar Gonzalez and we will see big steps up by prospects like Tibbs III, Raynor Arias, and Jhonny Level. So yeah, don't waste energy worrying about whether Bleacher Report ranked their system too low.
DeleteTrue about the Rankings but one only has to look at all the troubles/injuries of the guys that just graduated, the big misses and the huge chasm between ELDRIDGE and the rest of the prospects to know this is a bottom tier orgnaization in terms of propsects. Another thing that FZ left Posey with.
DeleteSteveVA
Thanks for the honest opinion on Bleacher Report. I felt it was wrong, also.
DeleteOn the contrary I look at the graduations, many of them more successful than anticipated as a sign the system is underrated. And I don't think the "chasm" is as wide as it appears. There are at least 4 players on the list who could easily graduate by the end of this season and several more who could take big steps forward with strong seasons. Hopefully Josuar Gonzalez is added in a few days too.
DeleteI am not saying Bleacher Report is right or wrong. I don't think there is a good way of measuring system strength and I just don't put a lot of stock in these rankings. Based on the arbitrary rules for these rankings, a system that just graduated 9 players is naturally going to rank lower than it should. Just my opinion, which is worth about as much as Bleacher Report's, the Giants lower minors are stronger than they have been for many years and the DSL is coming off a banner year.
DeleteDavid Villar (pre-FZ) is an interesting case.
DeleteThat he made it to January, he is out of options, he turns 28-yo this month, and he is still on the 40-man roster suggests that Posey/Melvin see something there as he backs up 3 IF positions with some pop.
So Spring Training is Villar's last chance: he makes the team as a b/u, he is traded, or he's cut. His primary competition: Flores, Wisely, Schmitt, and, to some extent, LMWJ. There's also Christian Koss who may have another year before free agency.
Wisely & Schmitt have options. Flores has a $3.5M contract. Villar can back up everywhere except SS, but Fitzgerald can do that.
So, if Villar has a good ST, he could make the team.
Ramos started in the farm and became an All-star. Harrison settled as part of the rotation with a huge upside. Fitz was the starting SS for most of the year. Miller, Roup and Walker became solid pieces of the pen. Birdsong impressed as a starter. McCray, Black, Winn, and McDonald all showed promise. That is not a bad system. There also others with high potential like Luciano.
DeleteDavid Villar was a PCL MVP a few years ago and now seems to have fallen through the cracks. Around the Foghorn seems to think that the only way he will stick is by being a utility guy, primarily at second. Dr B has him on the depth chart as a first baseman. I think that is going to be his route to the majors and it might come down to Villar or WIlmer Flores.
Deletequestion? at what level will Arias start out at in2025. Do you think high A is possible?
ReplyDeleteI would say most likely A San Jose to start the 2025 season for Raynor Arias.
Delete