The tea leaves did not look good for awhile and today we formally hear the Giants are not one of the teams Roki Sasaki RHP is considering signing with. He reportedly also informed the Yankees, Rangers, and Rays they are out of the running. That seems to narrow it down to the BJ's, The Hated Ones and that other team from SoCal. OK, let's stop kidding ourselves. It's going to be the Dodgers and poo on them! It seems MLB has jumped in the same boat as the NBA where players can collude and create super-teams.
TBH, the whole Sasaki situation has been weird from the beginning. First of all he's already an established star in Japan but somehow is considered an amateur international free agent subject to the bonus pool limits which apparently don't matter to him because he just wants to play or has enough endorsement income to not need the bonus money. Except the Dodgers and Padres are reportedly bailing on their longstanding agreements with their "normal" international prospects and telling them they are free to seek other deals or wait until next signing period. So maybe the money is not as irrelevant to Roki as he led us to believe? Which put the Giants in a tough position.
The Giants are reported to have a longstanding agreement in place to sign the consensus #1 international prospect(not named Roki Sasaki), Josuar Gonzalez SS, as well as two other highly regarded prospects who collectively are expected to take up all but about $800 K of their bonus pool. The Giants have also worked very hard for almost 10 years to build up their relationships with international trainers or "buscones" who broker these deals and finally seem to have a steady stream of serious international prospects on a yearly basis. In a vacuum, yes, Sasaki is a player you would sacrifice the rest of your international signing class to acquire but what about those longterm relationships with the "buscones" and their reputation with the Latin American talent pool? Through the whole process, the Giants were reported to be determined to honor the commitments they had in place while still hoping to sign Sasaki. Is Sasaki so narcissistic he wants teams to abandon those commitments as a sign of commitment to him?.....or maybe he really does need the bonus money after all? I am confused!
Then there was the weird "homework assignment" he gave the reported finalists to write up a personalized development plan for him. Like what? Buster Posey seemed pretty enthused about the prospect of signing Sasaki but he is also very old school and I could easily see him looking at that "homework assignment" and saying F this BS and not responding or walking away. Or in Buster's own immortal words, "not havin' it!" We will probably never know what really happened or how seriously the Giants were or were not a possible destination for him but I would love to see the look on Buster's face when he heard about that "homework assignment.".
So chins up, Giants fans. In all probability Roki was never coming to us and if the price was to bail on Josuar Gonzalez and the rest of their international commitments I am OK with that. Although Bobby Evans was the GM who started building up the international scouting effort, FZ continued it and that hard work is starting to pay off and will start paying dividends at the MLB level in just a few years.
Doc- Good info and excellent write-up for the Roki situation. I gave the Giants a very slim chance of signing Roki Sasaki, but hope was there. I am somewhat positive with the Giants going into the season with a rotation of Webb, Verlander, Ray, Hicks and Harrison. I believe I posted here earlier that I expect him to go to the Padres so he can be on the same team as Yu Darvish, who he considers a mentor.
ReplyDeleteThe one part I don't understand is the Josuar Gonzales piece. With Willy Adames at SS for the next seven years where will Josuar play? From what I have read he is a contact and speed player who may develop some power later. The profile of a contact/speed guy seems to me to be best at SS. How long do you think it will take to get Josuar ready for MLB play? Is the thought that he will slot to 2B? If it was an either/or, I would rather get Roki now then Josuar later. That's my two cents.
Josuar is 16 years old. It will take at LEAST 3-4 years before he is close to being MLB ready. By that time whatever logjam the Giants have will be a good problem. And of course, all things being equal you take the more proven talent but things are not equal and the ripple effect of walking away from the top international prospect on the market could have severely negative consequences on a source of talent that took years to build up.
DeleteIn the past, “buscones” were taking a huge portion of the players’ signing bonuses (yasial Puig) and I believe the take is now capped at 10%. The Giants might not be able to rely on buscones in the long term because MLB frowns on the system.
DeleteThe Dodgers were said to have lost an international prospect to the Pirates because they intended to give all the international money to Sasaki instead of the prospect. The buscone system may not be ethical but it’s not good to welch on previous commitments.
Unfortunately there is no good alternative to the buscone system. When Puerto Rico was included in the draft, the talent dried up because nobody was developing the players because there was no future payoff. Same thing would probably happen in the DR and other Latin American countries unless MLB invested a lot of $$ in a player development program. MLB obviously has the money to do so but as we all know most of the owners are cheapskate billionaires who would rather kill the sport than invest money they don't have to.
DeleteThe player the Dodgers lost to the Pirates is Darrel Morel, a shortstop. and they also returned an outfielder Orlando Patino to the market. So, that makes $3.6 million available for the Dodgers to use on Sasaki. It worked out well for Morel because he made an additional $600000 from Pittsburgh over what the original Dodgers agreement was for. I suppose Sasaki is a once in a lifetime player that the Dodgers would jeopardize their present and future Dominican relationships for but if I were a buscone, I would now think twice about dealing with LA.
DeleteThis would not be the first situation where the Dodgers can get away with something other teams can't but as great as it would be to get a player like Sasaki, I would not want to see almost 10 years of effort to build up a program get jeopardized by that one deal but I admit it's a debatable call.
DeleteI'll just say I am very happy the Giants are signing not just the top rated Latin American prospect on some boards but 2 others in the top 50 and are reportedly lined up to sign another highly rated Latin American prospect in January 2026.
DeleteThe buscones system is really shady. The Giants employed a guy in the 90's that was accused of sexual abuse by 15 boys. I think there was another one who worked for another team that was convicted of abusing two brothers and returned to host a camp. Some of the buscones use PEDs on young kids. The training camps have conditions which look like labor camps. Manfred is trying to push through an international draft to fix the system but it is opposed by owners and by the Domincan government.
DeleteA draft alone won't fix the system. If Manfred really wants to fix it he will get the owners to fund a development program. I think we all know the chances of that happening.
DeleteThe draft is intended to provide some transparency for the kids because it will subject them to random drug testing and also include some basic education. I do not think this will ever fly because this would involve owners laying out millions of dollars and would actually help only the select few that make it. The system in place is really corrupt but a fix for it would be expensive. As you say, the owners will not go for it.
DeleteJosuar just signed. Yes!
DeleteJosuar is seen as Adames' heir apparent.
DeleteThe Dodgers also got something like $5 million of extra international pool money in the Lux trade … that would put their total available close to $10 million. At the same time one of LA’s top int’l targets, Darell Morel, slipped away and signed with the Pirates. What if Sasaki doesn’t wind up in LA?
ReplyDeleteThe Dodgers did not get any international bonus pool money in the Lux deal. They got a competitive balance round pick in the draft which comes with bonus pool money but the draft pool is separate from the international pool.
DeleteNo surprise really...I'm hoping he goes to the Dodgers though, so the Padres stay a little closer to the Giants :)
ReplyDeleteNever thought there was a .00078% chance that ROKI was coming...Just hate that it will be the Bums or, even worse, the Padres who i have learned to hate even more...Yet, they are both so much more relevant in the eyes of any FA..That has to be changed somehow, someway. still hoping a FA bat or pitcher that feels the Giants are relevant for a short term deal or it will be a long..or short season...
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I mean it's pretty easy to see why the Dodgers and Padres are more attractive to a free agent from Japan. Their names are Darvish, Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Dodgers are also coming off a World Series win and have accumulated a nucleus of superstars. I do think the Giants need to start a long term intentional effort to connect better with Japanese players and the Japanese fanbase. As far as long term relevance I don't think you can create that in one off season no matter how much money you spend. You do it by continuing to sign free agents that fit your needs like Chapman and Adames and by smart drafting and continuing to build the pipeline of international talent(BTW, the Giants are rumored to be in on another highly rated international prospect next signing period).
DeleteI agree that Giants need to keep developing young talent thru the draft and internationall signings to become relevant. Keep 1st base open for Bryce Eldridge, don't trade him. Hoping Luis Matos can break out in 2025 after being named MVP in winter league being managed by Ozzie Guillen. Maybe Marco Luciano can take steps forward in his career as an outfielder. A move that seemed long ovetdue.. Hopefully their prospects will be given more time to develop at one level of minors before being moved up under Buster Posey.
DeleteI agree that the Giants need to stress and improve the outreact to and the development of young talent that takes a long time to percolate. OTOH, teams can turn around really quickly (in either direction) with the right or wrong moves of MLB players.. I hope ADAMES and Verlander are the start of some better evaluation and filling of needs but more is needed for the next 2-3 years.
DeleteI know this is more of a "prospect" place where youth and long term building is stressed (and I love following the kids) but, hey, I am getting old (er) like a lot on here and I don't mind winning and contending NOW! I know, selfish!
SteveVA
I think a lot of us here are in the same boat in terms of our personal timelines. It's not like Buster is totally ignoring the present. Adames is a huge upgrade on what they got out of the SS position last season. There is a non-zero chance that Verlander is a significant upgrade on what they got out of Snell last season. I would still like to see him upgrade the back up catcher role, though not sure how. I know there is an anti-DH sentiment but I would like to see him add a left-handed bat who would mostly DH and occasional fill in elsewhere. I also know Jesse Winker is not a popular name but I think he is affordable within the Giants apparent payroll constraints and a guy who can really lengthen that lineup.
DeleteHow....do you hate the Padres more than the Bums, Steve?
DeleteSosaki to the Dodgers is infinitely worse than him going to the Pads...
As far as the timelines go, Buster feels that fielding a competitive team is the biggest carrot to attract free agents so they are looking to improve the team but they are not following a strict agenda. Verlander is an upgrade over Snell in mentorship/clubhouse role. They do not want to use a full time DH like Soler because that limits team flexibility so it will be rotating based on who needs more rest and some players will end up being the DH more so than others.
DeleteThe Sasaki sweepstakes was a dog and pony show. It may have been a blessing that the Giants were out early enough to concentrate on Josuar and the rest of the international signings. The Padres were eliminated early enough to sign two top 50 prospects.
DeleteI think the bigger problem here is, why are the Giants no longer seen as a premiere organization by the baseball world? I strongly believe the Giants should be one of the top 5 franchises in baseball. It's pretty sad these days that the Padres are held in higher esteem than the Giants.
ReplyDelete- Fan
I don't agree with the popular narrative that the Giants are not seen as a premiere organization. There is nothing wrong with the Giants a good POBO can't fix. For now, we have to trust Buster Posey is the guy who will get that mojo back
Delete...but it will take more than one offseason.
DeleteDo you think FZ would have been able to sign Adames, or did it take the magic touch of a former player/future HOF candidate?
DeleteNot just Adames. I think it's pretty clear that Giants ownership did not think FZ could get Chapman signed and that Buster Posey was the man to get it done. Willy Adames himself says buy into Buster's vision for the Giants was a major factor in his signing and Justin Verlander said he never even thought about the Giants until Buster personally gave him a call.
DeleteI’m 100% satisfied with Josuar.
ReplyDelete