Let's do a fun little Player A vs Player B exercise here. The context is you are Buster Posey and are working with a collective ownership edict to stay under the CBT threshold in total payroll and you are looking for a power bat for RF, 1B or DH.
Player A: 30 yo. 600 PA, 126 H, 27 2B, 29 HR, 60 BB. Salary $25 M/yr for 5 years($125 M total).
Player B: 27 yo. 600 PA, 141 H, 25 HR, 25 2B, 25 BB. Salary $760 K for 1 year(League Minimum).
Which player do you choose?
Player A is Pete Alonso
Player B is Jerar Encarnacion.
Counting stats from 2024 adjusted to 600 PA's.
How bout instead:
ReplyDeletePlayer C: 33YO 600PA 159H 26HR 42DB 43BB Salary Demands??? (Somewhere between A and B!!!)????
Player C's projection numbers based on the 2022 and 2023 season also being just as good or better
If I am Buster Posey, I would delve into what happened before those 600 PPAs. Once I did, I wouldn’t even give a second’s though to Player B (Encarnacion) as an option in putting together my team. I want somebody track record consistent and productive and can hit from the RHS. That is not Encarnacion who hasn’t even had 200 MLB PA in his entire insignificant career and is only a projection based on 115 ABs. OTOH, one has to consider Player A (Alonso) who has had over 600 PA 4 years in a row and one could easily go by the mean or the 2022 and 2023 seasons, where he was top 20 in the NL (at elast by All Star votes.
Now, a better exercise given the parameters you mention would be judging Alonso against a more meaningful alternative (Player C) who has had long term (over 4000 PAs) and recent success in MLB. Judge these two in terms of potential production based on the last 3-4 years and salary demands (price and terms), how long you want the guy, and if you want a full timer or a strict platoon. Me thinks somebody like Player C would fit Posey’s plan more.
Player C is Randal Grichuk, who has been rumored to be of interest to the Giants
SteveVA
Grichuk is growing on me. Not sure if idle speculation or real interest but I've read there may be some discussion between the Giants and his camp.
DeleteBut part of me is extremely curious to see what Jerar could do with 600 PA's.
DeleteGrichuk is a good one to consider but for him, we have to pay attention to home/away splits. In 2022 and 2023 he was Rockies and in 2024, he played for the Diamondbacks. in 2022-3, he was definitely helped by playing in Coors Field (+100 points BA in 2022, I think about +50 in 2023 traded mid-season) and about 30 points in 2024 playing at Chase. I'm thinking his 2025 production if he signs with SF will be more on the line of 15HR, .250BA and 300AB playing more of his games at sea level due to park effect.
DeleteGrichuk can be used all over the outfield but I can see that he would taking the most time away from Matos. Grichuk is a better player at the moment but I think Matos will pass him with more experience.
Matos is nothing but potential right now, even if he is having a good Winter League..Lee is nothing but a question mark right now....Yaz is just meh....And Ramos needs to prove that the first part of last year wasn't just a flash in the pan...Yeah, they desperately need a consistent OF bat to count on and that's not Encarnacion or matos..And may not be Grichuk either but it's closer to the mark
DeleteSteveVA
Foghorn thinks Canha on a short term deal would make sense.
DeleteEncarnación, and not just for those stats.
ReplyDeleteWho wants to be saddled for 5, or even 3, years for a declining player?
It's doubtful that Encarnación will be the player that Alonso WAS, but he is better "for-the-dollar" and he "might" be as good next year. At least he is on the ascendant track and Alonso definitely is not.
If the difference would be a sure shot at 89 wins, then maybe a year or 2, but not 5, and not even 3 years.
Plus SF loses another "high-ish" draft pick.
And, $25M would take SF over the threshold, although selling off Wade and Flores (if possible) for what little could be gotten might save that, but Alonso at his BEST 5 years ago (5.5 bWAR) might make the difference with Adames AND good years from Ramos, Lee, and Fitzgerald. Alonso is not getting better.
Not even if you believe that lightning can strike twice, there won't be another 2021 without the guys that brought it the last time, or are Adames Crawford, Bailey Posey, and Alonso Belt? Webb is still Webb, but Gausman, DeSlafani, and Wood started 90 games and Cueto another 21: where will that come from?
No to Alonso!
The problem is you actually have to do it for 600 pa
ReplyDeleteBuster sending Encarnacion to welcome Josuar might be a big clue to where this is heading.
ReplyDeleteThat thought crossed my mind.
DeleteAlonso's qualifying offer costs the Giants 3rd and 6th round picks and $500000 international pool money.
ReplyDeleteWe’ve got Encarnación, so why not add Grichuk if he’ll take a short-term deal?
ReplyDeleteNot a fan of Grichuk. His stats are inflated due to effects of playing home games at Coors and Chase Fields. He would be taking playing time away from Matos, who, in time, will be better than Grichuk.
DeleteBuster has said repeatedly he is looking to upgrade the lineup. He is rapidly running out of options that are clear upgrades. It will be interesting to see if he signs a free agent or makes a trade or just decides to roll with the kids.
DeletePicking up Alonso, at this point would feel a little like we are grabbing him because he was all that was available, not because he's actually a good fit. He really doesn't seem to be. Still, it's hard leaving those numbers on the table because they might, on some level, help the team. However, on many other levels he wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteI can imagine Buster walking by the draft room and seeing Alonso's name on the board in there, day after day and thinking, boy we could use those numbers. And then remembering he's got a kid coming up that will fill that spot before the return on that investment can be close to being realized. Then he leaves the room and goes about his business, only to walk by that same room again the next day with that same name on the board and thinking, "Boy, we could use those numbers...." and the analysis repeats.
The solution is to stop walking by that room and stop looking at that name on the board. It's not a good fit. Put it down and step away. There must be some other way.
The media tends to attach available free agents with teams that have openings. I've seen similar articles about Santander, Flaherty, and Alonso being linked to many teams, not just the GIants. Unless I hear it from Susan Slusser or Andrew Baggarly, its just noise.
DeleteA smart Alonso would have taken the Mets 3-year offer, maybe ask for an opt out.
ReplyDeleteThe 3-year trend on him isn't good.
2022 4.4 bWAR .271/.352/.518
2023 3.2 bWAR .217/.318/.504
2024 2.6 bWAR .240/.329/.459
Why would year-4 be better?
Player B especially because there are others in the farm as well.
ReplyDeleteYou have to play the guy first, guy has minimal MLB experience.
ReplyDeleteThe comments on this blog are all valuable to consider for the most part. I appreciate the good doctor and all of you that post. After reading the above I think Buster should stick with Jerar Encarnacion. I don't want Alonso, nor Grichuk both decliners. The Barry Zito signing still sticks in my craw. He had the short comeback that helped the Giants win a World Series at the end of his tenure with the team, but overall was a bust. If you looked at his numbers prior to the Giants signing him, he was already in decline mode.
ReplyDeleteI'd much rather get another look at Luis Matos than watch Randall Grichuk. I feel Grichuk would be another AJ Pollack or Mark Canha which were boring signings. Trying to catch lightning in a bottle is a strategy of hope, and hope is not a strategy.
Well in fairness, Jerar is probably more about catching lightning in a bottle than Alonso or Grichuk but at least he comes at no cost and does not block the back up plans which would be Matos, Luciano, Meckler and McCray in some order. of depth chart.
DeleteHi Doc,
ReplyDeleteI agree with your overall point here. However, I think also a key point here is variance. Alonso has a much tighter and predictable outcome than Jerar. Not enough though to justify the cost though.
Best,
Fan
BTW, if you normalize Jerar's 2025 projections to 600 PA's the outcome is not much different than projecting his 2024 stats.
Delete"...adjusted to 600 PA's..." that's the twist, right?
ReplyDeleteHa ha! Hey, I like Jerar. Just saw a post on Reddit this evening that stated he's the only player, at any professional league or level ever, to hit as many as 19 HRs in under 100 ABs. (He did that for Oaxaca in the Mexican League last year before the Giants became interested).
I"m just saying the potential is there and the cost is 1 year of league minimum salary: $760 M.
Delete