Let's do a fun little Player A vs Player B exercise here. The context is you are Buster Posey and are working with a collective ownership edict to stay under the CBT threshold in total payroll and you are looking for a power bat for RF, 1B or DH.
Player A: 30 yo. 600 PA, 126 H, 27 2B, 29 HR, 60 BB. Salary $25 M/yr for 5 years($125 M total).
Player B: 27 yo. 600 PA, 141 H, 25 HR, 25 2B, 25 BB. Salary $760 K for 1 year(League Minimum).
Which player do you choose?
Player A is Pete Alonso
Player B is Jerar Encarnacion.
Counting stats from 2024 adjusted to 600 PA's.
How bout instead:
ReplyDeletePlayer C: 33YO 600PA 159H 26HR 42DB 43BB Salary Demands??? (Somewhere between A and B!!!)????
Player C's projection numbers based on the 2022 and 2023 season also being just as good or better
If I am Buster Posey, I would delve into what happened before those 600 PPAs. Once I did, I wouldn’t even give a second’s though to Player B (Encarnacion) as an option in putting together my team. I want somebody track record consistent and productive and can hit from the RHS. That is not Encarnacion who hasn’t even had 200 MLB PA in his entire insignificant career and is only a projection based on 115 ABs. OTOH, one has to consider Player A (Alonso) who has had over 600 PA 4 years in a row and one could easily go by the mean or the 2022 and 2023 seasons, where he was top 20 in the NL (at elast by All Star votes.
Now, a better exercise given the parameters you mention would be judging Alonso against a more meaningful alternative (Player C) who has had long term (over 4000 PAs) and recent success in MLB. Judge these two in terms of potential production based on the last 3-4 years and salary demands (price and terms), how long you want the guy, and if you want a full timer or a strict platoon. Me thinks somebody like Player C would fit Posey’s plan more.
Player C is Randal Grichuk, who has been rumored to be of interest to the Giants
SteveVA
Grichuk is growing on me. Not sure if idle speculation or real interest but I've read there may be some discussion between the Giants and his camp.
DeleteBut part of me is extremely curious to see what Jerar could do with 600 PA's.
DeleteEncarnación, and not just for those stats.
ReplyDeleteWho wants to be saddled for 5, or even 3, years for a declining player?
It's doubtful that Encarnación will be the player that Alonso WAS, but he is better "for-the-dollar" and he "might" be as good next year. At least he is on the ascendant track and Alonso definitely is not.
If the difference would be a sure shot at 89 wins, then maybe a year or 2, but not 5, and not even 3 years.
Plus SF loses another "high-ish" draft pick.
And, $25M would take SF over the threshold, although selling off Wade and Flores (if possible) for what little could be gotten might save that, but Alonso at his BEST 5 years ago (5.5 bWAR) might make the difference with Adames AND good years from Ramos, Lee, and Fitzgerald. Alonso is not getting better.
Not even if you believe that lightning can strike twice, there won't be another 2021 without the guys that brought it the last time, or are Adames Crawford, Bailey Posey, and Alonso Belt? Webb is still Webb, but Gausman, DeSlafani, and Wood started 90 games and Cueto another 21: where will that come from?
No to Alonso!
The problem is you actually have to do it for 600 pa
ReplyDeleteBuster sending Encarnacion to welcome Josuar might be a big clue to where this is heading.
ReplyDeleteThat thought crossed my mind.
DeleteAlonso's qualifying offer costs the Giants 3rd and 6th round picks and $500000 international pool money.
ReplyDeleteWe’ve got Encarnación, so why not add Grichuk if he’ll take a short-term deal?
ReplyDeletePicking up Alonso, at this point would feel a little like we are grabbing him because he was all that was available, not because he's actually a good fit. He really doesn't seem to be. Still, it's hard leaving those numbers on the table because they might, on some level, help the team. However, on many other levels he wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteI can imagine Buster walking by the draft room and seeing Alonso's name on the board in there, day after day and thinking, boy we could use those numbers. And then remembering he's got a kid coming up that will fill that spot before the return on that investment can be close to being realized. Then he leaves the room and goes about his business, only to walk by that same room again the next day with that same name on the board and thinking, "Boy, we could use those numbers...." and the analysis repeats.
The solution is to stop walking by that room and stop looking at that name on the board. It's not a good fit. Put it down and step away. There must be some other way.
A smart Alonso would have taken the Mets 3-year offer, maybe ask for an opt out.
ReplyDeleteThe 3-year trend on him isn't good.
2022 4.4 bWAR .271/.352/.518
2023 3.2 bWAR .217/.318/.504
2024 2.6 bWAR .240/.329/.459
Why would year-4 be better?