Hot Stove League Update: Scouting the Hitter Bargain Bin

In the wake of Corbin Burnes RHP signing with the D'Backs, Buster Posey was quoted from a text message to Andrew Baggerly in effect that he has confidence in the Giants young pitchers and will pursue upgrading the lineup.  While there is a handful of proven hitters still available on the free agent market such as Alex Bregman IF, Anthony Santander OF and Pete Alonso 1B, they all have their downsides and are likely to command prices out of anyone reasonable person's comfort zone.  There is also an interesting group of hitters most of whom were recently non-tendered contracts at the arbitration deadline and should be available for a more reasonable price both in terms of AAV and length of contract.  Let's break it down:

Dylan Carlson OF.  DOB: 10/23/1998.  B-S, T-R.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  3 Options.  Arb Eligible 2026.  Free Agent 2027.

2024(2 Teams):  .209/.287/.277, 3 HR, 2 SB, 8.3 BB%, 28.3 K%, 265 PA.  

The Good:  Carlson is a former #33 overall draft pick and Top 100 prospect.  Solid season in 2021 at age 22 with 18 HR.  Switch-hitter.  The Bad:  BA has declined 3 years in a row as has his defense.  Much better hitter from the right side which is the short side of a platoon.  Not a great sign that his performance didn't improve after midseason trade to the Rays or that the Rays non-tendered him despite a relatively low projected arbitration value.  Intriguing but at this point probably more of a guy you offer a minor league deal.

Austin Hays OF.  DOB:  7/5/1995.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 200 lbs.  Free Agent 2026.  

2024(2 Teams):  .255/.303/.395, 5 HR, 2 SB, 3.5 BB%, 23.1 K%, 255 PA.  

Hays battled injuries and a debilitating kidney infection in 2024 but hit a total of 54 HR's in 3 previous seasons with the Orioles.  Non-tendered by the Phillies in November.  Struggled against RHP's in 2024 but did not have a significant platoon split in the previous 3 seasons.

Ramon Laureano OF.  DOB:  7/15/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 203 lbs.  

2024(2 Teams):  .259/.311/.437, 11 HR, 8 SB, 4.9 BB%, 31.1 K%, 309 PA.  

Non-tendered by ATL despite slash-lining .304/.340/.514 after the All-Star break.  Continued to hit well in the DWL this fall.  Has a significant L vs R split with much lower nnumbers against RHP's.  Can play all 3 OF positions.  Career characterized by inconsistency since running up an fWAR of 3.8 in 2019.

Alex Verdugo OF.  DOB:  5/15/1996.  B-L, T-L.  6' 0", 209 lbs.  

2024(Yankees):  .233/.291/.356, 13 HR, 7.9 BB%, 15.0 K%, 621 PA.  

Looked like an up-and-comer in 2019 when he put up an fWAR of 2.1 in 377 PA for the Dodgers. Traded to the Red Sox with multiple players for Mookie Betts.  Mostly disappointing numbers since then.  Apparently hampered by a series of minor injuries and a health condition possibly related to a reaction to tattoos of all things.  Bats lefty and can play all 3 OF positions but mostly LF.

Jesse Winker OF.  DOB:  8/17/1993.  B-L, T-L.  6' 2", 206 lbs.  

2024(2 Teams):  .253/.360/.405, 14 HR, 14 SB, 12.4 BB%, 20.9 K%, 508 PA.  

Has a bit of a Michael Conforto/Joc Pederson feel to him but with much lower payroll cost.  Poor defensive OF.  Would be mainly a LH hitting DH.  Beat writers have questioned his work ethic.  

Summary:  These guys would all likely be available on relatively low-cost 1 year prove it deals.  Of course, there are reasons for that with each one.  One of the attributes of a good POBO/GM is being able to pick the guy out of a crowd like this who will put it together.  You can't build an entire team out of guys like this but they can be valuable additions to a roster in any given year.

Preliminary DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects

 Let's roll out the preliminary Top 50 prospect list and see what I missed or messed up on.  A couple of notes before we get to the list:

I know several commenters expressed support for Carson Whisenhunt LHP.  Although I like him as a prospect I don't think he quite has the ceiling of some of the younger guys and so rank him just a bit lower but still in the top 10.  Yes, I am aware of Josuar Gonzalez SS.  He will slot in at #2 when/if he signs which I will believe when I see it.  Finally, there is a fairly long list of players drafted in 2024 who did not make an appearance in a pro game yet.  I feel like at this point I just don't have enough information to rank them.  I expect some of them to make next year's list.  I just don't know which ones.

1.  Bryce Eldridge 1B

2.  Grant McCray OF

3.  Trevor McDonald RHP

4.  James Tibbs III

5.  Jhonny Level SS

6.  Rayner Arias OF

7.  Carson Whisenhunt LHP

8.  Mason Black RHP

9.  Diego Velasquez SS/2B

10.  Lisbel Diaz OF

11.  Wade Meckler OF

12.  Joe Whitman LHP

13.  Charlie Szykowny IF

14. Carter Howell OF

15.  Sabin Ceballos 3B

16.  Bo Davidson OF

17.  Dakota Jordan OF

18.  John Bertrand LHP

19. Trent Harris RHP

20.  Tyler Myrick RHP

21.  Juan Sanchez LHP

22.  Jack Choate LHP

23.  Nick Sinacola RHP

24.  Justin Wishkoski 3B

25. Victor Bericoto OF/1B

26. Aeverson Arteaga SS

27.  Hayden Wynja LHP

28.  Manuel Mercedes RHP

29.  Onil Perez C

30.  Cesar Perdomo LHP

31.  Jonah Cox OF

32.  Quinn McDaniel 2B

33.  Josh Bostick RHP

34.  Scott Bandura OF

35.  Cale Lansville RHP

36.  Gerelmi Maldonado RHP

37.  Ryan Vanderhei RHP

38.  Elijah Pleasants RHP

39.  Shane Rademacher RHP

40.  Drew Cavanaugh C

41.  Jeremiah Jenkins 1B

42.  Zander Darby SS

43.  Robert Hipwell 3B

44.  Maui Ahuna SS

45.  Jakob Christian OF

46.  Jose Ortiz OF

48.  Alix Hernandez RHP

49.  Hunter Bishop OF

50.  Will Bednar RHP

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Kayson Cunningham

Kayson Cunningham SS, HS.  DOB:  6/25/2006.  B-L, T-R.  5' 9", 170 lbs.

Cunningham has a short, compact frame with limited projectability but may have the best hit tool in the draft as he controls the strike zone and barrels the ball to all fields.  Speed to steal bases.  There is enough power to force pitchers to respect it.  Good chance to stick at SS.  Committed to Texas.  Again, it will be interesting to see how much the relaxed NCAA endorsement/sponsorship rules impact the signability of HS players in the draft.

Hot Stove League Update: Corbin Burnes Signs With D'Backs and Other News

 I think most of us had long since figured out that if the Giants were going to sign Corbin Burnes RHP it would have happened already but it's still a shock to the system to see the headline that he signed with another team, the D'Back no less!  The reported deal is 6 yr/$210 M with an opt-out after 2 years.  Several sources are saying the Giants and Blue Jays offered more guaranteed money but difference in state taxes was likely a big factor in his decision as well as the fact he has a home in Scottsdale.  It is also not known if the other offers included an opt-out or if they were for more seasons making the AAV less.

This news comes as a triple blow to the Giants as not only do they not get the pitcher they wanted and needed, he goes to a division rival and the starting pitcher free agent market thinned out considerably while they were waiting.  They still need at least one reliable veteran SP who can get deep into games to take pressure off Logan Webb RHP but the market is down to Jack Flaherty RHP and the "Brebbia Aisle."  There is Roki Sasaki RHP who would be a dream come true but the chances of signing him are likely much less than 1/30.  There may still be some opportunities on the trade market and I'm waiting to see Buster Posey impress me with a really savvy trade.

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In other Hot Stove League news, Teoscar Hernandez OF re-signed with the Dodgers for 3 yrs/$66 M with a $23 M signing bonus and $23 M in deferred money.  Hernandez is coming off the best season of his career but hit 116 HR's over his last 4 seasons so is a reliable HR and RBI man, especially in a stacked lineup like the Dodgers.

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And finally, Gleyber Torres 2B signed a 1 yr/ $15 M contract with the Tigers.  Am I crazy to think that would not have been a bad contract for the Giants to sign?

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: A Review

 Before we grapple with DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospect list, I thought it might help to review the 2024 list and see where the players on that list stand.  The good news is several of those players "graduated" to the major leagues.  The bad news is there were so many graduations the top of the list thinned out considerably and there just weren't enough replacements coming up from below to completely fill the void.  So let's review:

1.  Kyle Harrison LHP- Graduated.  Started off hot the seemed to wear down near the end of the season and was finally shut down with shoulder soreness.

2.  Marco Luciano SS- Graduated.  A tumultuous season which saw him flub a chance to take over as starting SS due to a storm of errors.  Some debate among Giants fans if he was given enough time to work through the rookie jitters or if the organization should have known all along he is a bad fielder.  Was officially moved to the OF.  Status now unclear after change in management.

3.  Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP- Stock Up.  Moved to full time 1B.  Fantastic season across 4 minor league levels.  Now is the clear #1 prospect in the system.

4. Walker Martin SS- Stock Stable.  Got a late start on the season. Played in the ACL and A levels with mixed results.  Size and athleticism continue to be pluses.

5. Rayner Arias OF- Stock Down due to lingering injuries.  Did not show up until near the end of the ACL.  Stayed in the complex rather than moving up to A ball.  Assume the ceiling is still high if he can regain full health.

6.  Keaton Winn RHP- Graduated.  Pitched very well when healthy.  Injuries a continuing worry.

7.  Mason Black RHP- Stock Up.  Pitched at the MLB level with mixed results.

8.  Carson Whisenhunt LHP- Stock Stable.  Pitched in the upper minors with mixed results.

9.  Trevor McDonald RHP- Stock Up.  Late start due to injury but pitched 3 shutout innings in the final game of the season.

10.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP- Stock Down.  Got lit up at the MLB level and did not pitch effectively in AAA.  Dropped from the 40-man roster and re-signed as a minor league free agent.

11.  Hayden Birdsong RHP- Graduated.  Pitched very well at the MLB level and looks like a future rotation fixture.

12.  Joe Whitman LHP- Stock Stable.  Pitched in the lower minors with mixed results.  

13.  Reggie Crawford LHP- Stock Down due to injuries.  Moved to pitching full time.  Tried to fast track as a reliever.  Ended up requiring reconstructive shoulder surgery.  Interestingly he's currently listed as an infielder on the AAA Sacramento roster.

14.  Tyler Fitzgerald IF- Graduated.  Finished the season as the Giants starting SS.  Currently projected starter at 2B for 2025.

15.  Wade Meckler OF- Stock Up.  Lack of power a concern but he muscled up and hit a flurry of HR's at the end of the season.  If he continues to show power, he should get another MLB opportunity.

16.  Erik Miller LHP- Graduated.  Pitched out of the Giants bullpen all season with mixed results.

17.  Carson Seymour RHP- Stock Up.  Added to the 40-man roster in November.

18.  Landon Roupp RHP- Graduated.  Pitched well at the MLB level and looks like he can be a back-end SP or long RP.

19.  Aeverson Arteaga SS- Stock Down.  Missed most of the season due to injury.  Looking to bounce back in 2025.

20.  Grant McCray OF.  Stock Up.  Ended season as starting CF for the Giants.  He'll lose that in 2025 with Jung Hoo Lee coming back.  Retains prospect status to to not exceeding MLB service time thresholds.

21.  Diego Velasquez IF.  Stock Up.  I am impressed by a BA of over .300 at AAA as a 20 year old.  Some question if he is a true SS.  He's now blocked from SS at MLB level for the Giants for the forseeable future.

22.  Vaun Brown OF- Stock Down.  Career apparently derailed by injuries.

23.  Victor Bericoto OF/1B- Stock Stable.  Hit .261 with 11 HR's for AA Richmond.

24.  Zach Morgan C- Stock Down.  Bat has not progressed.

25.  Adrian Sugastey C- Stock Down.  Missed much of season due to injury.  Bat challenged by AA.

26.  Onil Perez- Stock Down.  Bat struggled at A+.

27.  Jack Choate LHP- Stock Stable.  Pitched effectively at A+.

28.  Hayden Wynja LHP- Stock Down. Missed time with injury.  Reminder that 6' 9" LHP's don't grow on trees.

29.  Daniel Blair RHP- Stock Down.  Struggled at A+.

30.  Cole Foster SS- Stock Down.  Bat extremely disappointing.

31.  Gerelmi Maldonado RHP- Stock Down due to injury.

32.  Alix Hernandez RHP- Stock Stable.  Pitched effectively at ACL level, not so much is short trial at A level.

33.  Maui Ahuna SS- Stock Down.  Hasn't played much due to lingering injury issues.

34.  Quinn McDaniel 2B- Stock Stable.  Gets on base, steals bases.  Strikes out too much.

35.  Thomas Szapucki LHP- Stock Down due to persistent injuries.

36.  Juan Sanchez LHP- Stock Stable.  Pitched pretty well for AAA Sacramento.

37.  Randy Rodriguez RHP- Graduated.  Pitched at MLB level with mixed results.

38.  Jose Cruz RHP- Released.  

39.  Heliot Ramos OF- Graduated.  Projected starting LF for the Giants in 2025.

40.  TJ Hopkins OF- DFA'd in Feb 2024.  Washed away in The Churn.

41.  Trenton Brooks 1B/OF- Out of Organization.  Minor league free agency.

42.  Nick Avila RHP- Out of Organization. Claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Released in Aug 2024.

43.  Chris Wright LHP- Stock Down.  Missed all of 2024 with injury.

44.  Manuel Mercedes RHP- Stock Down.  Extreme contact/groundball approach doesn't work in the launch angle age.

45.  Scott Bandura OF- Stock Stable.  Played well at A level but struggled after promotion to A+.

46. Guillermo Williamson- Stock Down.  Bad body, hits for power but doesn't make enough contact.

47.  Elian Rayo 3B. Stock Stable.  Mixed results at ACL level.

48.  Cesar Quintas OF- Lost in minor league portion of Rule 5 Draft.

49.  Ryan Reckley 2B- Stock Stable. Played at A level without a lot of success.

50.  Ubert Mejias RHP- Stock Stable.  SP at A level with mixed results.

Here is a list of Honorable Mentions whose stock is up:

John Bertrand LHP

Tyler Myrick RHP

Carson Ragsdale RHP

Nick Sinacola RHP

Carter Howell OF

Charlie Szykowny IF

Justin Wishkoski 3B

Question for the Team

Hey team!  As is my custom, I sat down the day after Christmas to jot down the first draft of my Giants Top 50 Prospects list.  There is a very clear #1 and then it's suddenly gets much harder.  It seems to me there is large second tier with quite a few candidates you could make an argument for #2.  So here is the question:

With Bryce Eldridge as the clear #1 Giants prospect, who is your #2?

Prospect Retrospective: Ehire Adrianza Retires

 Once upon a time, Ehire Adrianza was one of my favorite Giants prospects.  A lean, athletic, switch-hitting shortstop who was a minor league contemporary of Brandon Crawford, I thought he was more likely the Giants shortstop of the future.  I was wrong about that but Adrianza ended up having a surprisingly durable MLB career earning himself a nice living in the process.  

The season that had me convinced Adrianza was going to be a future MLB star was 2011 with A+ San Jose when he put up slash line of .300/.375/.470 at age 21.  His numbers took a hit after a promotion to AA which happened for almost all Giants hitting prospects but rebounded to a .300 BA in AAA.  By the time he was MLB ready, Crawford had locked down the SS position and Adrianza became a utility player.  

Adrianza hit the waiver wire in Jan 2017 to make room on the Giants roster for Nick Hundley C.  He finally hooked on with the Twins and became a useful utility player for them.  His best season was 2018 with a slash of .251/.301/.379, 23 2B, 6 HR, 5 SB, 366 PA.  His line was better in 2019 with a .272/.349/.416 but with 130 fewer PA's.  Overall his career line was .237/.307/.352, 22 HR, 19 SB, 8.2 BB%, 19.8 K%, 1578 PA over 12 seasons.  He earned a total of just over $9 M for his career plus two World Series Championship rings, one in 2014 with the Giants and another in 2021 with the Braves.  

In making his retirement announcement he posted this heartfelt message:

“This journey has been incredibly challenging, filled with ups and downs, but every step along the way has been a blessing that I cherish immensely,” Adrianza said.  “Since my childhood, I dreamed of the possibility of winning a World Series, a goal that once seemed so distant and almost unattainable.  However, thanks to my effort, dedication, and the unwavering support of each one of you, that dream has become a reality.  I still find it hard to believe that I have had the honor of playing more than a decade in the Major Leagues.  I never imagined I would achieve so much, and it’s astonishing to reflect on this experience.”

Although he never became the star I hoped he would be, I followed his career with interest and am happy Ehire Adrianza lived his dream and earned himself a few nice paychecks along the way.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Seth Hernandez

Seth Hernandez RHP, HS.  DOB:  6/28/2006.  6'4", 190 lbs.

Seth Hernandez is the top-rated pitcher in rankings for the 2025 draft for a reason.  He looks like he was built by an AI 3D printer who was instructed to design and build the perfect pitcher.   Wiry strong lower half which generates tremendous drive toward the plate.  Long, loose arms which get full extension and leverage in high-3/4 delivery.  Scouting report gives him a mid-high 90's FB.  Best secondary pitch is a changeup but he also has a solid slider and curveball for a 4-pitch mix.  Could be challenging to sign him away from Vanderbilt commitment especially now with expanded financial opportunities for college athletes.  The challenge, as for all pitching prospects, is staying away from injuries and why HS pitchers are considered the riskiest draft demographic.

Peace, Hope, Love

Hey team!  Let's gather around the Hot Stove and wish everybody a day of peach, hope and love.  Oh, and I am sure there isn't a Giants fan alive who would not be thrilled to find a contract for Corbin Burnes under the Christmas Tree.  We'll save Roki Sasaki for New Year's wishes.

Hot Stove League Update: The Hot Stove Is Roaring!

The popcorn is popping furiously on the Hot Stove with at least 10 major deals announced in the past 2 days.  We wake up with four more this morning.  Here's what we've got:

Sean Manaea LHP re-signs with the Mets for 3 yrs/$75 M.

2024(Mets):  12-6, 3.47, 181.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.8 fWAR.

Perhaps no player has used the opt-out clause as a ladder more effectively than Sean Manaea.  After partially rebuilding his stat line mostly out of the bullpen for the Giants in 2023, he opted out of the second year of his contract and signed a new 2 yr with opt-out deal with the Mets.  He put together a strong performance as a full time SP and now gets the big payoff.  Good for him!  FZ might look back and think maybe he should have been more aggressive in re-signing Manaea after 2023.

Walker Buehler RHP signs with the Red Sox for 1 yr/$21.05 M plus incentives.

2024(Dodgers):  1-6, 5.38, 75.1 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, -0.2 fWAR.

Buehler was kind of my white whale this offseason but I have to admit that while the reward is high, so is the risk.  Hewas a rising star in the NL from 2018-2021.  He showed some regression in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.  From what I remember he had some setbacks and missed all of 2023.  He struggled all season in 2024 but after one disaster start in the postseason looked like his old self with 10 consecutive scoreless innings to help The Hated Ones to a World Series win.  So is that 10-inning run a sign he is finally healthy and has his mojo back or is it because he was pitching for the Dodgers and.....well, you know?  The Red Sox are taking the one year gamble at a significant price.

Joc Pederson DH signs with the Rangers for 2 yrs/$37 M with an opt out.

2024(D'Backs):  .275/.393/.515, 23 HR, 7 SB, 18 HBP, 12.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, 449 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Joc Pederson is an extreme one-dimensional ballplayer doing one thing and only one thing well:  He kills RHP's.  He's terrible against LHP's and he is a terrible defender in the OF.  Just imagine.  He signed with the Giants before the 2022 season for 1 yr/$6 M.  He re-signed for 2023 but somehow got partially blamed for the chaos in the Giants clubhouse that got Gabe Kapler fired  involving an addictive Filipino card game of all things!  He signed with the D'Backs who used him exclusively at DH and almost exclusively against RHP and he rewarded them and himself by raking.

Andrew McCutchen OF/DH re-signs with the Pirates for 1 yr/$5 M.  

2024(Pirates):  .232/.328/.411, 20 HR, 3 SB, 11.3 BB%, 25.8 K%, 515 PA, 0.5 fWAR.

Not a terrible offensive season for Cutch and it's a bit surprising he didn't get more $ in this contract.  His WAR value was limited by playing mostly DH.  Hard to believe he is entering his age 38 season.

Summary:  As a Giants fan it's hard to watch this storm of Hot Stove League activity while we wait, hopefully not in vain, for a Corbin Burnes signing.  The downer here is not that any of these players are must-haves for the Giants but the back up options if they lose out on Burnes are dwindling rapidly.

Hot Stove League Update: The Hot Stove Is Still Hot

We woke up today to the news of the Phillies trading for Jesus Luzardo and a minor league catcher for a couple of prospects from the lower minors.  Let's break it down:

Phillies get:

Jesus Luzardo LHP.

2024:  3-6, 5.00, 66.2 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR.

When Luzardo has been healthy he's been really good.  He was not healthy last year missing a large part of the season with a stress reaction in his back.  He has only pitched one complete season in his career, 2023.  He as two years of team control of his contract.

Paul McIntosh C.

2024(AA):  .246/.340/.385, 12 HR, 8 SB, 10.4 BB%, 19.8 K%, 480 PA.

Decent AA numbers but he's not considered a significant prospect.

Marlins get:

Starlyn Caba SS.

2024(FCL):  .254/.427/.335, 2 HR, 37 SB, 22.7 BB%, 15.1 K%, 225 PA.

2024(A):  .179/.304/.190, 13 SB, 13.9 BB%, 13.0 K%, 115 PA.

Caba is a top 100 prospect who is a defensive whiz at SS.  He doesn't have much power but still seems to be able to draw a walk and get on base and then steal bases.  He just turned 19 yo so has time to develop some power.

Emaarion Boyd OF.

2024(A+):  .239/.317/.331, 3 HR, 27 SB, 6.8 BB%, 19.5 K%, 400 PA.  

Not a terrible stat line.  Has some speed.  Has time develop.

Summary:  Phillies are gambling on health and a big comeback by Luzardo.  Marlins get a boost to their rebuild by adding a top 100 prospect and a decent second prospect.  Although the upside is there, I don't think I would trade away a top 100 prospect on an oft-injured pitcher coming off another injury.  Is Dave Dombrowski the GM in Philly?  Yeah, that explains it.

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In a second trade of the day, the Nationals acquired Nathaniel Lowe 1B from the Rangers for Robert Garcia LHP in what appears to be straight up 1 for 1 trade.

Nationals get:

Nathaniel Lowe 1B.

2024(Rangers):  .265/.361/.401, 16 HR, 12.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 565 PA, 2.8 fWAR.

Solid offensive numbers and a decent fielder at 1B.  Two years of team control on his contract.

Rangers get:

Robert Garcia LHP.

2024(Nationals):  3-6, 4.22, 59.2 IP, 11.31 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 2.38 FIP, 1.5 fWAR.

Lefty reliever with better peripheral numbers than ERA.  

Summary:  

Although Garcia is a serious lefty bullpen arm, the Nationals get a solid position player with 2 years of control which I think is a good trade for them.  Buster might look back and tell himself he wished he traded for Lowe.

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Thanks to BaseballJeff1 on Blusky for noting the Giants signed Antonio Jimenez LHP to a minor league contract:

Antonio Jimenez LHP.  DOB:  5/6/2001.  5', 11", 145 lbs.

2024(AA):  3-0, 3.44, 36.2 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.68 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  1-0, 4.32, 25 IP, 7.92 K/9, 2.52 BB/9.  

Diminutive lefty who may be running out of time to add bulk to his frame which may consign him to the bullpen.  He has a 3-pitch mix with a low-mid 90's FB.  Best pitch seems to be a changeup per Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs.

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In addition to Nien-Hsi Yang RHP, the Giants signed a pair of 17 yo RHP's to contracts to finish out their 2024 international signing period, Mario Gonzalez and Carlos Toro.  We'll be watching for them in minor league boxscores this summer.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Tyler Bremner

Tyler Bremner RHP, College(UCSB):  DOB:  4/20/20204.  6' 2", 190 lbs.  

2024:  11-1, 2.54, 88.2 IP, 21 BB, 104 K.  

Bremner pitched like an ace in both starting and relief roles last season.  He has a strong lean frame with long loose arms.  His FB runs in the mid-upper 90's. He pairs that up with changeup that MLB rates as a 65.  The slider is a tick lower in grade but is improving giving him a full 3-pitch mix.  Does he have the stamina to be a full time SP?

Hot Stove League Update: First Base Dominoes Fall

The Hot Stove is sizzling today.  No sooner had Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Paul Goldschmidt with the Yankees than the D'Backs moved aggressively to fill their hole at 1B with Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians.  The DBacks send Slade Cecconi RHP and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick to the Guardians.  

D'Backs get:

Josh Naylor 1B.

2024:  .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 6 SB, 9.2 BB%, 16.6 K%, 633 PA, 2.3 fWAR.

Good hitter, bad body.  Negative defensive metrics drag down his WAR value.  Free Agent next offseason.

Guardians get:

Slade Cecconi RHP.

2024: (AAA):  4-2, 3.06, 47 IP, 10.34 K/9, 2.68 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-7, 6.66, 77 IP, 7.48 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.

Former #33 overall draft pick in 2020.  I liked him from my predraft research.  Excellent control but is command within the zone a problem?  He gave up 16 HR in 77 IP.  Maybe was too afraid of walking batters?  Back of rotation pitching option for the Guardians.

Summary:  D'Backs win the trade in the short term but downgrade their defense at 1B and only control Naylor's contract for 1 season.  Cecconi's numbers could well improve with experience.  Naylor would have been an interesting bridge to Bryce Eldridge but I get the feeling Buster Posey is not that into bridge contracts and 1 year rentals.

Then, no sooner had the news sprung on the Naylor trade but the Guardians reunited with Carlos Santana on a 1 yr/$12 M contract.

Carlos Santana 1B/DH:

2024:  .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 10.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 594 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Santana had a solid season for the Twins in 2024 and actually had positive defensive WAR value at age 39.  How much longer can he keep it up?

Summary:  Assuming Josh Naylor was going to leave in free agency, the Guardians may have actually upgraded 1B for 2025 by trading him and signing Santana.  Again the question is how much longer can Santana keep up this level of play?  Santana has also been discussed in blogs as a possible bridge option at 1B for the Giants.  I think Buster has other priorities and is likely to stick with LMWJ and a RH platoon bat for 1B until Bryce Eldridge is ready.

Hot Stove League Update: Paul Goldschmidt Agrees To Terms With Yankees

 Paul Goldschmidt 1B, long time Giants nemesis, is signing with......the Yankees for 1 yr/$12.5 M.

2024:  .245/.302/.414, 22 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 26.5 K%, 654 PA, 1.1 fWAR.

I can't say I saw this coming.  Goldschmidt was someone I thought could be a nice bat for Buster Posey to add at a not-unreasonable cost.  His 2024 numbers are not great and have been declining for a couple of years now but they are also not terrible by Giants hitting standards.  I felt like he and Buster might have a mutual respect that goes back to the glory days for both players but here we are.  Goldy is going to play for the Yankees for a not-unreasonable price.  Yesterday's take:  He might have something left in the tank.  Today's take:  Nah, he's washed up!  Hey, at least he's in the other league now.  Buh bye!

So who's left on the first base free agent market? 

Pete Alonso(QO):  Love the HR power but not much else.  Definitely does not fit with Buster's stated philosophy for roster construction.

Josh Bell

Anthony Rizzo

Carlos Santana

Hey! Bringing back Brandon Belt as a lefthanded DH isn't looking so bad!  It's really looking like the Giants are content to ride out a platoon of LMWJ and Wilmer Flores or Jerar Encarnacion until Bryce Eldridge is ready and I can think of worse plans.

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Thanks to Nick San Miguel of Around the Foghorn for the heads up on an international signing from Asia.  No, not Roki Sasaki but Nien-Hsi Yang RHP out of Taiwan for a reported $500 K.   I read the Giants had about $2 M of unused bonus pool money for the 2024 international signing period and December 15 was the deadline. So they had some extra change lying around and used it on Yang.  Scouting report is he's 18 ho with a 3 pitch mix headlined by a 92 MPH FB.  He's a sturdy looking kid with a conventional windup and over-the-top delivery.  Maybe we'll see him in a San Jose Giants uniform in 2025?

Hot Stove League Update: Christian Walker Signs With Astros

 Christian Walker 1B signed a 3 yr/$60 M contract with the Houston Astros.

2024:  .251/335/.468, 26 HR, 10.0 BB%, 24.1 K%, 130 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Walker has been a consistent source of power and gold glove defense at 1B for the D'Backs since the departure of Paul Goldschmidt.  He was headed for one of his best seasons when he went down with an oblique injury on 7/29.  He did not return until 9/3 and hit just .141 in the month of September.  Oblique injuries tend to be slow healing but also usually don't cause problems once they are fully healed.  The contract covers his age 34-36 seasons.  The signing is a clear signal the Astros gave up on re-signing Alex Bregman.  Isaac Parades, acquired from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade will play 3B and Walker will play 1B.  I thought Walker would make a nice upgrade for the Giants and am sad to see him off the market although there was never any indication the Giants pursued him.

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The Giants re-signed Raymond Burgos LHP to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.  

2024(ACL):  1-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(A):  0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 4.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  2-2, 1.69, 26.2 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.69 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 9.00, 1 IP, 9 K/9, 9 BB/9.  

Burgos is an interesting lefthanded depth option.  He only got one MLB appearance lasting 1 inning and gave up a run on 3 hits, struck out 1, walked 1 but got 4 GB's in 7 PA's.  His numbers in AAA Sacramento suggest he is capable of pitching effectively at the MLB level.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Jamie Arnold

Jamie Arnold LHP, College(Florida State).  DOB:  3/21/2024.  6' 1", 188 lbs.

2023(College):  2-5, 6.34, 44 IP, 10.0 K/9, 5.5 BB/9.

2023(Cape Cod League):  1-1, 2.95, 18.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9.

2024(College):  11-3, 2.98, 105.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9.

Arnold is coming off a terrific sophomore season in which is racked up the 3'rd highest strikeout total in the NCAA.  He sports a 3-pitch SP mix including a mid-90's FB, sweeping slider and a decent changeup.  Although on the small side in stature, he plays up with a super-long stride reminiscent of Tim Lincecum and a sweeping arm action not dissimilar to Madison Bumgarner.  He as a low-3/4 release point with just a bit shorter arm action than Bum.  If he stays healthy and pitches up to his sophomore campaign, he'll be a high first round pick.

Hot Stove League Update: Top of the Market Congealed; Lower Level Signings Continue

While the top of the free agent market remains congealed, teams continued to add depth players and upside plays from the "Brebbia Aisle" as the Giants Blog would put it.  We have three new signings to report:

Mike Soroka RHP signs with the Nationals for 1 yr/$9 M.

2024(White Sox):  0-10, 4.74, 79.2 IP, 9.5 K/9, 5.0 BB/9.

After a strong age 21 season in 2019 for the Braves, Soroka was beset by a series of injures.  He surfaced in 2024 with the White Sox and struggled as a SP into 2024 but was much better after moving to the bullpen but continued to put up elevated walk rates. The Nationals apparently intend to try him as a SP again in an upside play although $9 M is a significant investment for a pitchers who hasn't proved he can control the strike zone.  Pitchers in this general demographic are not what the Giants need right now.

Max Kepler OF signs with the Phillies for 1 yr/$10 M.  

2024(Twins):  .253/.302/.380, 8 HR, 5.5 BB%, 20.1 K%, 399 PA.

Kepler is a good defensive OF who hit 36 HR's in 2019 but has not come close to that production since.  His 2024 season was impacted and shortened by injuries.  The Phillies take a flyer on a 1 year "pillow" contract hoping he can stay healthy and his numbers will bounce back.  Kepler fits in the same demographic as Mike Yastrzemski who has also battled injuries and is signed for 2024 for pretty much the same contract.  I'll bet on YtY's numbers next season.

Patrick Sandoval LHP signs with Red Sox for 2 yrs/$18.25 M.

2024(Angels):  2-8, 5.08, 79.2 IP, 9.2 K/9, 4.0 BB/9.  

Sandoval was a quality SP for the Angels for 3 years but struggled in 2024 and was shut down in June for Tommy John surgery.  He might help the Red Sox late in 2025 but they are betting on him coming back to full strength in 2026.  That's a very FZ kind of move which didn't really work out often for him and the Giants are not currently in need of that type of gamble.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Jace LaViolette

 Jace LaViolette OF, College(Texas A&M).  DOB:  12/4/2003.  B- L, T-L.  6'6", 230 lbs.

2023(College):  .287/.414/.632, 21 HR, 18 SB, 17.1% BB, 26.8 K%, 280 PA.

2023(Cape Cod League):  .381/.500/.429, 19.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, 26 PA.

2024(College):  .305/.449/.726, 29 HR, 7 SB, 19.2 BB%, 24.3 K%, 334 PA.

Tremendous combination of size, athleticism and power.  Fast enough to play CF with an arm strong enough to play RF.  Unfortunately his shakiest tool is the most important one, hit.  He shows good plate discipline with high walk rates which often come with higher strikeout rates because if you are choosy about what balls you swing at in the zone, you are going to see more 2-strike pitches you don't strike out until after you get to two strikes.  So that may explain it but the MLB Pipeline scouting report talks about swing and miss within the strike zone which is a red flag, IMO.  On video he looks like a lefthanded version of Kris Bryant.  I don't see an arm bar.  He keeps his elbows bent which helps him get around on pitches on the inner half and his arms are long enough he should be able to also cover the outside corner.  The potential is obvious but also some bust potential if he doesn't show improvement in in-zone contact skills.

Hot Stove League Update: Yankees Trade for Cody Bellinger

 The Cubs remained one of the most active teams in the Hot Stove League, particularly in the trade market.  Yesterday the other shoe dropped after they traded for Kyle Tucker OF.  The takers were the Yankees who were in the market for a lefty hitting OF after losing Juan Soto OF to free agency and the Mets.  Lets break it down:

Yankees get:

Cody Bellinger OF/1B:  

2024:  .266/.325/.426, 18 HR, 9 SB, 7.9 BB%, 15.6 K%, 569 PA, 2.2 fWAR.

Cody Bellinger's MLB career started by hitting 111 HR's in his first 3 seasons then he dropped off a cliff.  While he did suffer a shoulder injury in the 2020 postseason which eventually required surgery, his production took a noticeable dropoff earlier in the COVID-delayed 2020 season.  His production never fully recovered.  He had a strong 2023 season after signing a 1 year contract with a player option with the Cubs hitting 26 HR's and accumulating a 4.4 fWAR.  The Cubs gave him a QO and he eventually signed a 3 yr/$80 M contract before the 2024 season.  2024 marked another regression.  The Cubs were rumored to be looking to trade him going into the Hot Stove League season ostensibly to reduce payroll and clear a crowded OF situation but the acquisition of Kyle Tucker OF makes it appear they just wanted out of his whole situaiton.  Yankee Stadium offers a perfect environment for him to rebuild his stat sheet but this has to be tough for Yankees fans to swallow after losing out on Soto.

Cubs get:

Cody Poteet RHP: 

2024(AA):  0-0, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 10.61 K/9, 0.96 BB/9.  

2024(AAA):  3-0, 3.92, 43.2 IP, 10.10 K/9, 3.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 2.22, 24.1 IP, 5.92 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.

Former 4'th round draft pick out of UCLA by the Marlins.  Missed 2023 after Tommy John surgery.  Missed time in 2024 with a triceps strain but pitched well when healthy.  His ERA at the MLB level outperformed his K rate but in a small sample. He adds to the Cubs rotation depth.

Summary:

Interesting trade on multiple levels.  Some may wonder why the Giants weren't more in on Bellinger since it seems like they could use another lefty power bat and they have at least 5 pitchers who fit Cody Poteet's general profile.  The question I ask is if Cody Bellinger is a better player than Mike Yastrzemski?  Maybe a little but if you translate Bellinger's home games from Wrigley Field to Oracle Park, I'm not sure he's that much better.  While he has more power than Lamonte Wade Jr, LMWJ has a far better OBP.  So it looks like the Giants just weren't that into Cody Bellinger either and definitely not at his salary point.

Hot Stove League Update: Orioles Sign Sugano

Tomoyuki Sugano, a veteran RHP from Japan, signed a 1 yr/$13 M contract with the Orioles.  That is of interest to Giants fans because there was early speculation the Giants might be in on him, although more recently the chase seems to have narrowed down to Corbin Burnes or bust.  

Tomoyuki Sugano RHP:  DOB:  10/11/1989.  6' 1", 198 lbs.

2024(NPB):  15-3, 1.67, 156.2 IP, 6.38 K/9, 0.92 BB/9.  

Sugano still pitched at a high level of success at age 34.  His FB velocity reportedly dipped from the mid-90's to the low 90's and his K rates are unimpressive, but his command is off the charts.  We will probably never know if the Giants made an offer.  He signed for an affordable price if they really wanted him.  For approximately equal offers it is possible he decided the Orioles were closer to a championship run and chose that.

Let's take a look at what's left on the free agent starting pitching market:

Corbin Burnes RHP(QO)- The clear top of what's left on the market.  What's taking so long?  You have to think the days going by with no news is not good news for the Giants.

Walker Buehler RHP(No QO):  Reportedly seeking a multi-year deal.  Personally I would do it for no more than 3 years.  IMO he's the highest ceiling for the lowest price in this FA class, but you have to respect the injury history.

Jack Flaherty RHP(No QO):  The type of innings eater the Giants needs but has been inconsistent and won't be cheap.

Andrew Heaney LHP(No QO):  Gives innings but ERA over 4 the last two years for the Rangers.

Sean Manaea LHP(QO):  I wanted FZ to resign him after the 2023 season.  While I would give up the draft picks for Burnes, probably would not for Manaea.

Nick Pivetta RHP(QO):  Would not give up draft picks to sign him.

Cal Quantrill RHP(No QO):  Nobody is talking about him.  He'll give you innings, should be affordable and his ERA should look a lot better pitching his home games in Oracle Park vs Coors Field.

Max Scherzer RHP(No QO):  Missed quite a bit of time with a hammy injury last season but pitched at least 145 innings/season the previous 3 seasons.  Does he have anything left in the tank?

Justin Verlander RHP(No QO):  K rate is down and ERA ballooned to 5.48 last season with the Astros.  Does he have anything left in the tank?

Roki Sasaki RHP(No QO):  I take it back that Walker Buehler is the highest ceiling for the lowest price. That would be Sasaki who is limited to signing for international prospect bonus pool money and would be an immediate ace.  The problem is it's a complete crapshoot as to who he will choose.  The Dodgers are the obvious frontrunner and there are several other teams likely ahead of the Giants in the Sasaki Line.

There are several potential trade candidates out there including Dylan Cease RHP but that is way more speculative than the free agent market.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Ethan Holliday

 I'm going to start a series of posts scouting players eligible for the 2025 MLB Amateur Draft and try to build a draft board.  No guarantees how far I will get on it.  I got a full first round draft board in 2023 which I thought was surprisingly accurate(I got Bryce Eldridge to the Giants right), but last year I kind of lost interest after the first 10 or so scouting reports.  I have more recreational time this year so maybe I can keep it going beyond the top 30?  

The Giants had bad luck in the draft lottery and will draft in the #13 slot, I think for the 3'rd time in 4 years.  They should be drafting as high as #9 base on W-L record.  So let's get started with the reviews.  We will work our way down through the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Draft Prospects.

Ethan Holliday SS/3B, HS.  DOB:  2/23/2007.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 200 lbs.  

The younger of the Holliday Boys is significantly bigger than his older brother, Jackson, who was the #1 overall pick in 2022.  He is a 5-tool player with the biggest being power.  He still shows some leanness in videos but his size will likely limit him to 3B by the time he reaches the MLB level of play.  On video he has a nice looking swing but bars his front arm to my eye.  Some analysts think arm-barring is a negative but it's controversial.  Most early draft prospect rankings have him at the top of the board and that's where we will put him for now.

Hot Stove League Update: A's, Rays Make Multiplayer Trade

 The A's have made some inneresting moves this Hot Stove League Season.  This one is a bit of a head-scratcher from their end and since they are dealing with the Rays, it's not hard to think the Rays got the better end of the deal even before analyzing it.  Let's break it down:

A's receive:

Jeffrey Springs LHP:

2024:  2-2, 3.27, 33 IP, 10.09 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.  

Springs missed most of 2022 and 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  He came back at the end of July to pitch well in 7 Starts but then was shut down on 9/3 due to "elbow fatigue".  He has two years remaining on a 4 yr contract with a club option for 2027.

Jacob Lopez LHP:

2024(AAA):  4-7, 4.26, 88.2 IP, 10.76 K/9, 4.57 BB/9.  

2024(MLB):  0-0, 5.23, 10.1 IP, 6.97 K/9, 6.10 BB/9.

Of the name Jacob Lopez sounds vaguely familiar, he was the Giants 26'th round draft pick in 2018.  FZ churned him to the Rays for Joe McCarthy in a 2019 midseason trade.  He has worked his way up through the Rays farm system.

Rays receive:

Joe Boyle RHP:  

2024(AAA):  1-3, 5.12, 45.2 IP, 13.99 K/9, 7.69 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-6, 6.42, 47.2 IP, 10.57 K/9, 7.55 BB/9.

Per Fangraphs, Boyle's FB velocity is 98 MPH, but he obviously has serious command/control issues.  Maybe the Rays can fix that?  Or maybe he has more potential as a reliever?

Jacob Watters RHP:

2024(A+):  6-3, 5.04, 8.31 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.

2024(A):  1-0, 9.00, 3 IP, 0.00 K/9, 15.00 BB/9.

Hasn't pitched above A+ ball and was Rule 5 Eligible this year.

Will Simpson 1B/OF:

2024(A+):  .270/.373/.480, 16 HR, 4 SB, 14.6 BB%, 24.7 K%.

2024(AA:  .348/.408/.493, 2 HR, SB, 9.2 BB%, 23.7 K%.  

15'th round draft pick in 2023 with excellent progress in first full pro season.

Rays also receive a compensatory draft pick.

Summary: 

Springs is probably the best players in the trade and this could work out pretty well for the A's if he is healthy.  Boyle's K rate indicates some upside if he can gain some control of the strike zone and Simpson looks like a legit hitter.  It's surprising the A's gave up a high draft pick and that could end up being the eventual difference maker in the trade.  It's interesting that the A's seem to suddenly want to add payroll.  Are they really trying to improve the team or did the MLBPA put the fear of god in them over a possible grievance for underspending their revenue-sharing money?  Maybe some of both?

Hot Stove League Update: Cubs Trade for Kyle Tucker; Yanks Get Devin Williams

The Hot Stove League has not seen many old-fashioned "blockbuster" trades the past few seasons because teams became severely averse to giving up top prospects for "rentals" of star players about to hit free agency.  Yesterday we saw the second blockbuster of this season when the Astros traded Kyle Tucker OF to the Cubs for two players with MLB experience and one of their top prospects.  Let's break it down:

Going to Cubs:

Kyle Tucker OF:  DOB:  1/17/1997.  B-L, T-R.  6' 4", 212 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 1, 5'th overall.  3'rd year arb eligible.  Free agent 2025/2026.

2024:  .289/.408/.585, 23 HR, 11 SB, 16.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, 339 PA, 4.2 fWAR.

Tucker missed significant time last season with a fractured tibia but did come back in September to hit .365 so appears free of injury worries next season.  He is obviously an excellent, consistent player putting up fWAR's of 5.0, 4.9 and 5.0 in the years 2021-2023. He likely would have gotten close to 8 fWAR in 2024 without the injury.  The problem is he only has one more season of team control of his contract.  As a Scott Boras client he will almost certainly resist efforts to extend his contract and will one of the most sought after free agents next Hot Stove League season.

Going to Astros:

Isaac Paredes IF:  DOB:  2/18/1999.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 213 lbs.  First year arb eligble.  Free Agent 2027/2028.  

2024(2 teams):  .238/.346/.393, 19 HR, 11.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, 641 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

Originally signed by the Cubs in 2015, Paredes has already been involved in 4 major trades:  Cubs to Tigers with Jeimer Candelario for Alex Avila C and Justin Wilson LHP, Tiger to Rays for Austin Meadows OF and Rays to Cubs for Ty Johnson RHP, Hunter Bigge RHP and Chris Morel IF/OF/DH.  Per MLBTR, Sarah Langs did a spray chart for Paredes and found he would have hit 26 HR's in 2024 if he played his home games in Houston.  Now Cubs to Astros.

Hayden Wesneski RHP.  DOB:  12/5/1997.  6'3", 210 lbs.  Pre-arb.  Arb eligible 2026.  FA 2030.

2024:  3-6, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 8.91 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.  

Wesneski was an effective swingman for the Cubs starting 7 of his 28 appearances(Opener?).  He comes with many years of team control.

Cam Smith 3B.  DOB:  2/22/2003.  B-R, T-R.  Drafted 2024 Round 1, #14 overall.

2024(A):  .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 14.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 57 PA.

2024(A+):  .333/.421/.500, HR, 10.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 57 PA.

2024(AA):  .263/.300/.474, 5.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 20 PA.

Already a very fast riser, Smith probably needs to start 2025 in AA but could see the majors by mid-late season depending on how he responds in his first full pro season.

Summary:

Probably a good trade for both teams.  Cubs get the best current player, by far, but only for one season.  This move likely signals that the Astros are entering another tear-down/rebuild phase after several tumultuous years of contention including a cheating scandal for prohibited use of electronic equipment to steal signs. They get 3 players who can all be solid parts to that rebuild. Does the acquisition of Tucker by the Cubs make a trade of Cody Bellinger OF and/or Seiya Suzuki OF more or less likely?

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Cubs also signed Carson Kelly C to a 2 yr/$11.5 M contract. Kelly was once a top catching prospect but has had a disappointing MLB career so far.    He hit .238/.313/.374 last season for two teams.  Kelly was someone I was hoping the Giants would sign as a back up or co-catcher to Patrick Bailey.  He will likely share catching duties with Miguel Amaya in Chicago.

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The Yankees acquired Devin Williams RHP in a trade with the Brewers for Nestor Cortes LHP and Caleb Durbin IF.  Let's break this one down:

Yankees get:

Devin Williams RHP.  DOB:  9/21/1994.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  3'rd yr arb eligible.  Free Agent 2025/2026.

2024:  1-0, 1.25, 21.2 IP, 15.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 14 Saves, 0.8 fWAR

Williams is an elite Closer when healthy.  He missed time with injuries in 2024.  Yanks bullpen came just a bit short in the postseason so that's what his acquisition is all about.

Brewers get:

Nestor Cortes LHP.  DOB:  12/10/1994.  5'11", 210 lbs.  3'rd yr arb eligible.  Free Agent 2025/2026.

2024:  9-10, 3.77, 174.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.1 fWAR.

Caleb Durbin IF.  DOB:  2/22/2000.  B-R, T-R.  5' 6", 185 lbs.  Drafted by Braves 14'th round in 2021.

2024(AAA):  .287/.396/.471, 10 HR, 29 SB, 12.5 BB%, 9.9 K%.

Yankees also send $2 M to the Brewers.  

Summary:  In terms of WAR value, a mid-rotation SP who racks up 170 IP is more valuable than even an elite Closer but Blown Saves can have an extremely pernicious impact on an entire team and that is amplified in the postseason as the Yankees found out the hard way in 2024.  Both of the main players in this trade will be free agents after one more season so that part is even.  The Brewers also get a MLB-ready IF whose small stature may work to his advantage in terms of strike zone control.  I give the Brewers a narrow win in this trade.

Hot Stove League Update: Red Sox Sell Farm For Garrett Crochet; Giants Play Rule 5 Musical Chairs

While rumors of Corbin Burnes RHP possibly signing with the Giants heated up, the Red Sox traded half their farm system for Garrett Crochet sending 4 prospects including their last two first round draft picks to the White Sox.  Let's break it down:

Garrett Crochet LHP:  DOB:  6/21/1999.  6' 6", 245 lbs.  Service Time:  4 years.  Options:  3.  Arbitration Eligible:  Now.  Free Agent:  2027(2 years of team control remaining).

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.25 GB/FB, 14.4 HR/FB%, 2.69 FIP, 97.2 vFA, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet had a breakout season in 2024 after missing all of 2022 and much of 2023 with Tommy John surgery.  The Red Sox gain control of his contract for 2 seasons through arbitration eligibility.  The ceiling is obvious but without a track record of sustained health and success.  Comps to Chris Sale are obvious but Sale had a much longer record of success before the Red Sox acquired him.  

Kyle Teel C:  DOB:  2/15/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 190 lbs.  Drafted first round #14 in 2023.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.

2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Athletic for a catcher with elite plate discipline, more gap power than HR power.  Should make his MLB debut in 2024, possibly as early as Opening Day.  Candidate for ROY.

Braden Montgomery OF:  DOB:  4/16/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 220 lbs.  Drafted first round #12 overall in 2024.

2024(College):  .322/.454/.733, 27 HR, 5 SB, 53 BB, 59 K, 295 PA.

2-way college player who transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M for his junior season.  Drafted as an OF.  Had surgery to repair a fractured ankle suffered during the college playoffs so did not appear in any pro games.  One of several big-time college hitters in the 2024 draft.

Chase Meidroth IF.  DOB:  7/23/2001.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 170 lbs.  Drafted 2022 round 4.  

2024(AAA):  .293/.437/.401, 7 HR, 13 SB, 18.8 BB%, 12.7 K%, 558 PA.

Played most innings at SS and second most at 3B so apparently has the arm for the left side of IF.  Elite plate discipline.  Coming off a full season of AAA experience, should be able to start at some position on Opening Day.

Wikelman Gonzalez RHP.  DOB:  3/15/2002.  6' 0", 167 lbs.  

2024(AA):  4-3, 4.73, 83.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.95 BB/9.

High walk rate suggests reliever risk or need for further development.  No scouting report but seems to be a hard thrower.

Summary:  The Red Sox get 2 years of control of an elite LHP with a limited track record of success.  It's unclear that the BoSox are at a place where one elite pitcher makes them contenders.  The White Sox are coming off one of the worse seasons in MLB history and are in desperate need of rebuilding. They get a huge haul of prospects which we rarely see in trades anymore.

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Yesterday the Rule 5 Draft was held.  Most of you know I am not a fan of the Rule 5 Draft which I believe to be more disruptive than benificial to both players and teams although there occasional success stories.  The Giants did not make a selection and did not lose any players in the major league phase.  There was a lot more action in the minor league phase but with questionable impact.  The Giants lose 6 players who probably did not figure to ever make their 40-man MLB roster and they gained 2 players who now have one season to prove they deserve to be added to the 40-man before next year's Rule 5 Draft. Note that unlike the major league phase, in the minor league phase the drafted players do not have to stay on the AAA roster and do not have to be offered back to their previous team so these transactions are final.

Players Lost:  

Wil Jensen RHP(AA)

Cesar Quintas OF(A+)

Julio Rodriguez RHP(AA)

Will Wilson SS(AA)

Andy Thomas C(AA)

Nick Swiney LHP(AA)

The most notable development here is probably the end of the Will Wilson saga.  If you recall one of the first big moves FZ made as POBO, was to essentially buy a second first round draft prospect for the cost of Zach Cozart's $12 M contract which was immediately dumped as a sunk cost.  Wilson just never found any traction on his pro career despite a lot of patience from the Giants.

Players Gained:  

C. J. Widger LHP:  DOB: 5/25/1999.  6'6", 170 lbs.  

2024(A):  3-4, 4.60, 29.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 3 Saves.

2024(A+): 2-1, 6.30, 10 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.

Son of former MLB catcher Chris Widger.  Love the height Very good K rates but walk rates too high.  Could be a MLB lefty reliever if he can find a way to cut those down just a bit.

Sadrac Franco RHP:  DOB:  6/4/2000.  6' 0", 155 lbs.

2024(ACL):  2-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 7.84 K/9, 5.23 BB/9.

2024(A):  0-1, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 17.28 K/9, 3.24 BB/9.

Has never pitched above A ball.

Summary:  Don't hold your breath until any of these players make it to the major leagues.

Hot Stove League Update: The Cost of Starting Pitching Remains High

It was a busy day at MLB's Winter Meetings starting off with the Rangers re-signing Nate Eovaldi RHP to a 3 yr/$75 M contract.  After being plagued by injuries and inconsistency early in his career, Eovaldi has been on of MLB's most consistent pitchers  over the past 5 seasons with ERA's ranging from 3.63 to 3.80 while averaging 152 IP/season over his last 4 seasons.  He enters his age 35 season.  MLBTR predicted a 2 yr/$44 M contract for him, so we once again see contracts for SP's outstripping predictions by a significant amount, both in years and in AAV.  

The Blockbuster deal of the day went to Max Fried LHP who agreed to terms with the Yankees for a whopping 8 years/$218 M.  Fried is a durable, consistent performer accumulating a career 3.07 ERA in 884.1 IP.  His deal tops MLBTR's prediction of 6 yr/$156 M.... by a lot!  His K rate is not outstanding but he has elite walk and groundball rates.  He has missed some time with forearm strains the past 2 seasons so that is something to watch going forward, especially in a pitcher who just got an 8 year contract to take him through his age 38 season.

The Guardians traded their gold-glove second baseman, Andres Gimenez, to the Blue Jays along with Nick Sandlin RHP for Spencer Horwitz IF and Nick Mitchell OF.  Gimenez' offensive production tailed off the last two seasons and this trade gets the last 5 years of his $106.5 M contract off their books while getting a potential 2B replacement in return along with a promising prospect.

The last big news of the day was the Rangers acquiring Jake Burger 3B/1B from the Marlins for three prospects.  The Rangers run-scoring faltered last season and Burger hit 29 HR's. He is a defensive liability who could end up DH'ing for most of his PA's.  

In Giants news, they are rumored to still be in on Corbin Burnes RHP who is not expected to command a deal well north of his MLBTR prediction of 6 yr/$200 M. Buster Posey gushed about Roki Sasaki RHP who will wait until a short window after the next international signing window opens on Jan 15.  Sasaki is widely expected to sign with the Dodgers his agent is pushing back on that notion.  Sasaki is rumored to be unhappy with aggressive sports media and San Francisco's sports media is believed to be more athlete-friendly than LA.  It is also emerging that being the second Japanese player in a given market hurts merch sales.  We'll see. All this seems vaguely familiar.  

With the addition of Willy Adames SS, the Giants 40-man roster is full so they will not be selecting in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft this AM.  They could still select someone in the minor league phase.

And is it just me or have the Giants been the victims of vaguely bad luck for awhile now?  They came out of the draft lottery dropping 4 slots from #9 to #13 as 4 teams improved their draft position including the Nationals at #1 overall, the Angels at #2, the Mariners at #3 and the Cardinals at #5.  The two teams with the worse records, the Rockies and Marlins dropped to #4 and #7 respectively.  Dropping from #9 to #13 may not seem like a big deal but we have seen drafts where a difference of just 1 or 2 slots makes a huge difference in available talent depending on where tiers break.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2024 Giants Draft

The Giants lost their 2'nd and 3rd round picks due to signing Matt Chapman and Blake Snell as free agents.

1.  James Tibbs III OF, College.

We covered him in the First Round Review.  Bat came to life in last 6 games at A+ level.  Should start back there in 2025. I think he will do well and will be a fast mover.  Probably more gap than HR power but should hit for average.

4.  Dakota Jordan OF, College.  

MLB predraft ranking of 34 who fell to the Giants at 116.  Went 0 for 7 in a cameo A level appearance at the end of 2024.  5-tool player who was a 2-sport HS athlete(football WR).  Dropped football to concentrate on baseball in college at Mississippi St.  Tools are still raw with a lot of swing and miss in his game. He is still learning how to use his WR speed on the basepaths and in the OF.  Will likely require some patience in his development.

5.  Jakob Christian OF, College.

2024(A):  .267/.378/.500, 4 2B, HR, 13.5 BB%, 21.6 K%, 37 PA.

6' 5", 225 lb size give him oodles of power potential.  Can he control the strike zone? Defensively limited to corner OF.

6.  Robert Hipwell 3B, College.

2024(A):  .196/.360/.402, 5 HR, 15.4 BB%, 29.4 K%, 136 PA.

First member of draft class to appear in a pro game.  Some extreme 3-true outcomes feel here.  May need to be more aggressive earlier in counts?

7.  Greg Farone LHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Big lefty with unimpressive college numbers(Alabama/SEC).

8.  Niko Mazza RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Small(5' 11") college SP with decent numbers.

9.  Zane Zielinski SS, College.

2024(College, Illinois-Chicago):  .363/.449/.583, 4 3B, 8 HR, 20 SB, 32 BB, 47 K, 268 PA.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Great size for a shortstop(6' 3", 175 lbs) with room to get stronger.

10.  Cade Vernon RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games. Good size for pitching prospect(6' 3", 210 lbs) with unimpressive college stat line.

11.  Andy Polanco OF, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Only HS player drafted by the Giants in 2024.  Tremendous size at 6' 4", 195 lbs.  Not much else available in the way of scouting reports.

12.  Zander Darby 3B, College.

2024(A):  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 15.8 BB%, 29.8 K%, 57 PA.

Showed some pop and a 3-true outcomes tendency.

13.  Drake George RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  NAIA college.  Decent line in small sample from Cape Cod League.

14.  Jeremiah Jenkins 1B, College.

2024(A):  .295/.367/.545, 2 HR, 8.2 BB%, 32.7 K%, 49 PA.

Classic big left-left slugging 1B. Will he hit at higher levels?

15.  Evan Gray RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  College reliever with strong ratios.

16. Tyler Switalski LHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Nice size(6'4", 235 lbs). Unimpressive college stat line.

17.  Hunter Dryden RHP, College.

Did not appear in any games with an affiliated pro team.  Small size(5' 11", 168 lbs) from a small college.  Good numbers across the board.  Pitched 30 innings for Mahoning Valley in the MLB developmental league prior to the draft. 

18.  Ryan Slater RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Big bodied college reliever with unimpressive stat line.

19.  Ryan Ure LHP, College.

Did not sign.  Too bad because 6' 8" lefties don't grow on trees.

20.  Fernando Gonzalez C, College.

2024(College, Georgia):  .292/.364/.532, 9 HR, 15 BB, 31 K, 200 PA.

Did not appear in any pro games.

Summary:

It's become really hard to get an early read on drafted players due to draft being moved so late in the season the short season leagues are already wrapping up.  I am bullish on first rounder James Tibbs III and think he will move fast.  Giants selected several college power bats hoping one or two will develop into something.  I look forward to seeing the names of the 10 signed players who did not make it into any pro games including 8 pitchers.

Hot Stove League Update: Dodgers and Yankees Reach Their Limits; Steve Cohen Has None

 Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets and a man with very deep pockets, put all that money to use by agreeing to sign Juan Soto OF to a record-breaking contract for 15 yrs/$765 M with escalators to an ultimate potential value of over $800 M.  This tops the absolute dollar amount of Shohei Ohtani's contract by $65 M in guaranteed money but most of Ohtani's contract is deferred which in MLB accounting makes it worth only about $470 M. Since none of Soto's money is deferred, he now has the richest contract in baseball history and by $ several hundred million.  The contract does have an opt-out after 2029 season. Does anybody care?  

As I have said before, I don't think there is any point in clucking about whether Soto or any ballplayer is worth this much money or whether his contract will place limits on future team spending.  It's obvious at least some MLB owners have, for all practical purposes, unlimited amounts of money to spend and they are going to spend it.  

The other side of that coin though is the Dodgers apparently do have a limit after all.  Though they already spent a lot of money this offseason and may well spend more, another team ended up with Juan Freaking Soto and the Dodgers so far have two injury prone Giants castoffs.  Which brings us to Michael Conforto.  Their is something satisfyingly symbolic that immediately after the Soto deal went down, we learned the Dodgers will sign Michael Conforto to a 1 yr/$17 M contract, which is not $51 M/yr but it's not nothing either.  I'll have to get back to you about why the Dodgers would want Michael Conforto, a player who was incredibly disappointing in his two years with the Giants.

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The more I think about the Giants signing Willy Adames, the more I am impressed by how Buster Posey got that deal done.  Don't forget that not only does Buster have personal knowledge of how players think about free agency, he also hired his own agent as an advisor to add an even stronger player/agent perspective to the process.  The comparison to FZ's completely tone-deaf and apparently off-putting approach is so striking.

No matter how good a player is or what their market value is, players are human and human's need to feel wanted when they form relationships.  Nobody wants to be someone else's second choice.  This is all speculation, of course, but it looks like Buster's approach worked on two levels:  1.  He let Adames know Adames was his first choice from Day 1 of free agency and Juan Soto was not a factor in Buster's priorities.  2.  Buster knew that as soon as the Soto shoe dropped, several other teams would immediately pivot to Adames, including the Dodgers who were also an obvious fit, possibly driving his price out of the Giants comfort zone.  Buster did not want to climb down the same ladder FZ did so many times.  In making Adames feel wanted Buster was able to get ahead of the market and get the deal he had to make done.  Very impressive work there but the Giants new President of Baseball Operations!

Hot Stove League Update: Buster Posey Gets It Done!

AnonymousDecember 7, 2024 at 6:48 AM

Doc, for the fun of it give me your 3 player signing/acquistions the Giants will make this week. I know i kind of asking you to give me the numbers I use to make when I purchase a lottery ticket, but I respect your views. That said I would be happy with Adames and anything after that > but again your top 3.

Richard in 

DrBGiantsfanDecember 7, 2024 at 8:16 AM

As you say, almost anything is possible but OK, let's see if we can break it down. I am going make two assumptions: 1. When Buster speaks, and he is a man of few words, he tells the truth. 2. Buster really really wants to start his tenure as POBO with an improved team. Here's where I'll go with that:

1. Willy Adames SS. Buster said he's going to go get a shortstop. There is really only one significant upgrade at shortstop available, Willy Adames. I think Buster is going to make an all-out effort to sign him.

2. Paul Goldschmidt 1B. First Base is the other position clearly in need of an upgrade but it's also Bryce Eldridge's position and Buster does not want to block Eldridge. Just a guess but I'll say I think there is a lot of mutual respect between Buster and Goldy.

3. Cal Quantrill RHP. I think J. T. Snow sent the signal when he went on the radio and said he would not bring Snell back and instead would bring in a couple of innings eating starting pitchers. Quantrill is affordable, gives you innings and his numbers should look a lot better with home games in Oracle Park instead of Coors Field.

I am not much for predictions when it comes to free agent signings or trades, but yesterday morning Richard in Winnepeg asked point blank and for some reason I was in a mood.  Just a few hours later Buster Posey made me look like a prophet as the news broke the Giants agreed to terms with Willy Adames on a 7 yr/$182 M contract.  The only detail we know is the agreement includes a $22 M signing bonus.

And what a statement from Buster Posey!  After years of mostly empty promises from FZ, Buster stated a goal at the beginning of the Hot Stove League season and achieved that goal with laser-like precision.  When he stated his goal was to go get a shortstop the there was only one clear upgrade on the market, Willy Adames, and many teams with records of more success in signing free agents were in the shortstop market.  It appeared Buster would have to rely on personal connections with Manager Bob Melvin and Jung Hoo Lee to sign Ha Seong Kim.  Now, a healthy Kim would also be an upgrade but he is coming off surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder with no guarantee he will play at all in 2025 or ever play shortstop again.  To me, it was Adames or bust.  It was Adames!

In Willy Adames, the Giants get a player who not only plays a premium defensive position but is an excellent all-around hitter who brings both gap and home run power to the plate and can hit in the middle of most any MLB lineup.  There is a small concern he is inexplicably coming off a down year in his defensive metrics but those metrics tend to have a lot of variance from season to season and he still graded out as a positive defender when it came to calculating fWAR and the bat is good enough to be an asset even with diminished defense.  Perhaps the best part of this contract is Adames just turned 29 years old in September which means his likely peak seasons will cover most of the 7-year contract which will conclude after his age 35 season.

This signing is great news for Giants fans and a huge accomplishment for Buster Posey.  Hey!  Maybe he will be the Jerry West of baseball executives!  

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2024 First Round

1.  Guardians:  Travis Bazzana 2B, College.

2024(A+):  .238/.369/.396, 3 HR, 5 SB, 13.9 BB%, 25.4 K%, 122 PA.

Disappointing BA for a guy who came advertised as a high average hitter with doubles power and a motor.  This line looks more like a 3-true outcomes guy without the power.  A+ is an aggressive post-draft placement even for a 1-1 from a major college program.

2.  Reds:  Chase Burns RHP, College.

Burns did not get into any game action after the draft so we'll have to wait on next season for early returns.  Has tools to be a fast riser.

3.  Rockies:  Charlie Condon OF, College.

2024(A+):  .180/.248/.270, HR, 4 SB, 3.7 BB%, 31.2 K%, 109 PA. 

I'm always skeptical of one-dimensional sluggers who put up huge numbers in college.  A+ is an aggressive post-draft placement but this line is scary bad.

4.  A's:  Nick Kurtz 1B, College.

2024(A):  .400/.571/.950, 4 HR, 28.6 BB%, 20.0 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AA):  .308/.400/.385, 13.3 BB%, 20.0 K%, 15 PA.

2024(AFL:  .353/.450/.608, 2 HR, 9 BB, 16 K, 60 PA.

Another of those one-dimensional college slugger types.  So far he's hit everything in sight in small samples and could rocket to the majors.  

5.  White Sox:  Hagen Smith LHP, College.

2024(A+):  0-1, 3.52, 7.2 IP, 8.22 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 4.57 GB/FB.

Tiny sample but good numbers in an aggressive placement.

6.  Royals:  Jac Caglianone 1B, College.

2024(A+):  .241/.302/.388, 2 HR, 2 SB, 5.6 BB%, 20.6 K%, 126 PA.

2-way player in college who looks like he'll be a hitter in the pros.  Huge power projection.  Again, A+ is an aggressive placement right out of the draft.

7.  Cardinals:  J J Wetherholt 3B/2B/SS, College.

2024(A):  .295/.405/.400, 2 HR, 2 SB, 12.7 BB%, 11.9 K%, 126 PA.

Played multiple positions in college but exclusively SS is junior season.  So far the Cardinals have played him at SS too.  Tremendous all-around hitter in college.  Good numbers so far in the pros.  Will enhance his value if he can stick at SS.

8.  Angels:  Christian Moore 2B, College.

2024(A):  .545/.583/1.000, HR, 8.3 BB%, 0.00 K%, 12 PA

2024(AA):  .322/.378/.533, 5 HR, 2 SB, 8.2 BB%, 29.6 K%, 98 PA.

Angels have been drafting college position players then force-feeding them to the majors.  Don't be surprised if Moore is the first member of this draft class to make his MLB debut.

9.  Pirates:  Konnor Griffin SS, HS.

First high school draftee.  Did not see game action after the draft.

10.  Nationals:  Seaver King, SS, College.

2024(A):  .295/.367/.385, 3 3B, 10 SB, 10.0 BB%, 14.4 K%, 90 PA.  

Contact/speed hitter who should stick at SS.

11.  Tigers:  Bryce Rainer SS, HS. 

Trend here of players drafted out of high school not seeing game action post-draft.

12.  Red Sox:  Braden Montgomery OF, College.

Did not see game action post-draft.

13.  Giants:  James Tibbs III OF, College.

2024(A):  .415/.429/.512, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.

2024(A+):  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.

A+ numbers look bad but if look at game logs, he went 1 for 46 in his first 11 games then went 8 for 26 with 2 HR in his last 6.  He should start 2025 in A+ Eugene and I think he will do great with a promo to AA by midseason.  I think he'll end up having more gap power than HR power but hit for a high average.

14.  Cubs: Cam Smith 3B, College.

2024(A):  .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 14.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 57 PA.

2024(A+);  .333/.421/.500, HR, 10.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 57 PA.

2024(AA):  .263/.300/.474, 5.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 20 PA.

James Tibbs III teammate at FSU.  Great start to pro career.  Should move fast through the Cubs system.

15.  Mariners:  Jurrangelo Cijntje RHP/LHP, College.

Ambidextrous switch-pitcher.  Did not see game action post-draft.

16.  Marlins:  P J Morlando OF, HS.

Had just one PA post-draft.

17.  Brewers:  Braylon Payne OF, HS.

2024(A):  .438/.526/.625, 4 SB, 15.8 BB%, 15.8 K%, 19 PA.

Aggressive placement.  SSS.

18. Rays:  Theo Gillen OF, HS.

2024(A):  .154/.353/.192, SB, 23.5 BB%, 41.2 K%, 34 PA.

Aggressive placement.  SSS.

19.  Mets: Carson Benge OF, College.

2024(A):  .273/.420/.436, 2 HR, 3 SB, 15.9 BB%, 20.3 K%, 69 PA.

Pretty good numbers in a small sample.

20.  Blue Jays:  Trey Yesavage RHP, College.

Did not appear in games post draft.

21.  Twins:  Kaelen Culpepper SS, College.

2024(A):  .297/.366/.541, 2 HR, 2 SB, 7.3 BB%, 4.9 K%, 41 PA.

0224(A+):  .210/.310/.306, HR, 2 SB, 11.3 BB%, 18.3 K%, 71 PA.

Again we see a pattern where A ball may be to conservative a placement for college draftees but A+ may be too aggressive?  Bring back short season A ball!  Of how about start a fall league just for same season drafted players?

22.  Orioles:  Vance Honeycutt OF, College.

2024(A):  .226/.333/258, 4 SB, 11.1 BB%, 36.1 K%, 36 PA.

2024(A+):  .100/.100/.100, 0.0 BB%, 55.0 K%, 20 PA.

Very small sample but the rap on Honeycutt in college was too many K's.  Yikes!  

23.  Dodgers:  Kellon Lindsay SS, HS.

Another player drafted out of HS who did not appear in games post draft.

24.  Braves:  Cam Caminiti LHP, HS.

2024(A):  0-1, 3.00, 3 IP, 12.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

This is one I will watch closely.  Widely projected to go to the Giants at #13.  I like the Tibbs pick but suspect Caminiti may have a higher ceiling and the Giants have had a lot of success drafting HS pitchers, especially LHP's.

25.  Padres:  Kash Mayfield LHP, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games post-draft.

26.  Yankees:  Ben Hess RHP, College.

Did not appear in any game post-draft.

27.  Phillies:  Dante Nori OF, HS.

2024(A):  .240/.424/.280, 4 SB, 24.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 66 PA.

Tools/speed project.  Did not appear in any top draft prospect rankings.

28.  Astros: Walker Janek C, College.

2024(A+):  .175/.214/.289, HR, 3.9 BB%, 29.1 K%, 103 PA.

Again, A+ is very aggressive placement even for a top college player immediately post-draft.

29.  D'Backs:  Slade Caldwell OF, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games.

30.  Rangers:  Malcolm Moore C, College.

2024(A+):  .209/.298/.374, 3 HR, 3 SB, 7.7 BB%, 27.9 K%, 104 PA.

Aggressive placement.

Summary: 

This draft was college-heavy, especially in the top half of the first round which usually means it is generally a weak draft.  I like James Tibbs III and think he will move up fast but wonder if Cam Caminiti might ultimately have a higher ceiling.  Later draft means fewer players see game action in their draft season, especially HS players.  In past, it was routine for players drafted out of college to be assigned to short season A ball and players out of HS assigned to rookie ball.  Teams now seem to struggle with where to place their drafted players or whether to just keep them in camp until the next full season.

Hot Stove League Update: Even the A's Overpay For Starting Pitching

The A's surprisingly jumped into the free agent market with a big....well, a modest splash signing Luis Severino RHP to a 3 year/$67 M contract.  Severino has an opt out clause after the second season.  MLBTR  projected him to get 3 yr's/$51 M so it looks like the free agent market, at least for starting pitchers is up significantly this year and the Montas and Boyd signings were not flukes.  This one hurts a little as some analysts saw a fit for Severino with the Giants so their list of SP options continues to shrink.  That it's the lowly A's who got him and went past projections makes it a little more concerning.  

Severino was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018, but then suffered a lont string of injuries which severely limited his appearances and effectiveness for the next 5 seasons including no appearances in 2020.  He had a pretty good comeback seasons for the postseason-bound Mets with a line of 11-7, 3.91, 182 IP, 7.96 K/9, 2.97 BB/9.  His FIP was a bit higher at 4.21.  He had a modestly positive ground ball rate.  Although his FB velocity remained equal to his early career, he was significantly more hittable. 

This contract continues the trend that one healthy season gets SP's a multi-year contract.