Gerrit Cole shut down the Giants lineup after a series of head-spinning move to finalize the roster. Key Lines:
Gerrit Cole RHP(Yankees)- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K's. When he is healthy and on, Gerrit Cole is one of the elite pitchers in baseball. On the other hand, the Giants did not even bother to put their own best lineup out to face him on Opening Day. More on that later.
Logan Webb RHP- 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 12 K's, GO/AO= 4/0. You could make a case that Webb pitched every bit as well as Cole, maybe even slightly better. The difference in this game was found in the lineups which were starkly different in quality.
Aaron Judge CF/RF- 2 for 4, HR(1). Judge rubbed salt in the wound of his rejection of the Giants offseason contract offer by homering in his first AB against them in the first inning. Grrrr!!!!
Gabe Kapler Manager- Kap's explanation for sitting David Villar while starting Wilmer Flores and batting him 3'rd in the lineup: Opening Day is unique and Wilmer Flores has earned the right to be in the middle of the lineup. WTF? So is the guy you've named as your starting 3B the best player for that position or not? If he is, how didn't he earn the right to be in the middle of the lineup? If not, why is he your starting 3B? Yeah, not a great explanation, Kap!
Farhan Zaidi PBO- OK, the man can't help himself. Days after all but naming Bryce Johnson OF and Sean Hjelle RHP to the Opening Day roster, he pulls one of his roster switcheroos making a cash trade with the Royals for....wait for it.....former Dodger Matt Beaty, a lefthanded-hitting 1B/Corner OF. I mean, you could not have written a better parody than that, except it was for real. That move had a ripple effect as it closed the open spot on the 40-man roster needed to add Bryce Johnson. That, in turn left the Giants without a backup option in CF so Brett Wisely UT, who was already on the 40-man roster was added to the 26 man active roster, even though Wisely is primarily a middle infielder. Oh well, the The Giants didn't have a back up middle infielder on the roster either so.....Those moves added up to 14 position players leaving room for just 12 pitchers and Hjelle was the odd man out there because he has options.
As for Beaty, he's had an up and down career:
Kuip had no idea what he was talking about back in ‘10, ‘12, and ‘14 when he coined the phrase “Giants Baseball, torture!” That was tickle monster torture and watching this team now is pulling finger nails out with pliers torture.
ReplyDeleteWhen your opening day lineup has 4 out of the top 5 spots in the order filled with guys who wouldn’t bat there on any other team in the league, that’s not a great formula for winning. Go through every position on the diamond and ask yourself if that player would be starting for any other MLB team or simply rank them against anyone else at their position and you won’t find a single top 20 at any spot. Lamont, Wilmer/Villar, Yaz, Sabol, Perez, and Craw are all subpar compared to the rest of the league. Thairo and Conforto are the only 2 that might have a chance to start on 7-8 other teams but the rest would be lucky to sniff bench anywhere else.
The cherry on top is acquiring Beatty over someone young and inhouse. Farhan has an addiction to the churn and should get help right after he is fired. This is the most embarrassing team I can remember being a fan of and watching Giants baseball has gone from one of my favorite activities to the best way to induce vomiting.
My company bought 13 season tickets which is the only reason I plan to go to any games this year. I plan on making my displeasure well known each game so look for the “Farhan Sucks” sign in left center followed by the chant which I plan on getting the entire stadium to follow.
Charles Johnson came out and said how pleased he is with Farhan and that he is planning on extending him so it’s time us fans spoke up to let him know we don’t feel the same and unless he forgot, we are the ones paying for this dumpster fire of a team and we can always stop giving them our money.
Sadly I can't really argue with any of that.
DeleteI think they believe in analytics strongly. I wonder if they ran that 4 out of 5 top spots thing you mentioned through the math department, with the exception of Flores, who I think was in there, instead of Villar, due to some Dr. McCoy-like consideration (human touch, because Flores was said to be calmer or some other human emotion like that) than AI Chatbot-like approach (all numbers... Mr. Spock is half human, so I won't say him).
DeleteThe Giants having days off after Game 1, Game 4, and game 12 probably had something to do with going with 12 pitchers and 14 position players. I'm sure they will bring up a 13th pitcher, probably Hjellie, once they start getting less days off on the schedule. I'm not going to base my opinion on the Giants after one bad opening game. This is not football
ReplyDeleteAgree leaving Hjelle off is probably temporary and schedule related but all the other churning was just gratuitous and probably unsettling to the team.
DeleteTERRIBLE message to young guys in the organization to send Johnson and Hjelle down after teh springs they had, for a journeyman LH bat with lead glove!
DeleteThe most shocking statistic with this impotent lineup: 16 Ks. 16!!!! I know that the Yankees also Ked 16 times, but I'm not focused on them. They ran a garbage, get away day lineup out for opening day. They optioned the two most exciting players from spring training to AAA (three if you count Schmitt). I know that it's only one game but that one game might be a harbinger for the season. If it is, we're in for a long, miserable season.
ReplyDeleteGame 1 of 162 shouldn’t be as important as we are claiming it is but its also hard not to ignore. Kind of like what Harry Doyle from the Movie Major league said, you can tell how the season is going to go by the first batter of the season.
DeleteYou can tell a lot by the first game as well like when Bonds homered twice off Kevin Brown and the Dodgers 20 years ago or when MadBum homered twice and struck out 11 in ‘17 just to have Melancon blow the save. Or like today when Judge homered in his first at bat and the Giants were abismal.
Not every game is going to be this ugly but if the starting pitcher on the other team is at all decent you can expect the Giants to lose and look bad in the process. You can also expect to see this against Webb more often than not and be the new recipient of Cainlike run support.
I love the positivity from LG but let’s all be realistic this year and not fall in the same trap we have the last few years giving Farhan the benefit of the doubt. If this season goes horribly wrong there needs to be a change!
Zaidi is starting to wear thin on me. IMO, he spends way too much time trying to be the smartest man in baseball.
ReplyDeleteYaz can't play 162 games at CF and really isn't a top-flight CFer as he's pushing 33 and losing range. At a minimum, Yaz needs competent relief. Did Zaidi address this?
Nope, he made it worse. Instead of keeping Johnson who is at least reputed to be a solid defender, we get a 1B/LF (Beaty) who can do what? Run around with his below average OPS and -0.9 bWAR (including his -2.3 career dWAR) and not make plays? Or Wisely who is a limited utility infielder? These are not 'the smartest man in baseball' moves. These are the kind of moves that ends up with a middling, if not sub .500, team and gets the manager fired as the fall guy.
What I see is that the Giants need to upgrade a lot of positions. Short-stop is an obvious problem going forward, as Crawford lost the map to the Fountain of Youth last year. First and third base have two players with serious split/platoon problems and the more I watch them, the more I classify them as 'stop-gap' solutions not long-term solutions.
Meanwhile Hjelle, Schmitt & Johnson are all back in AAA. Sometimes you just have to say 'I've got young talent, let's see what they can do' instead of trying to 'steal over-looked talent from the rubes.' I think those three players that should be in the majors getting tested -- Schmitt, Johnson & Hjelle. And I think each has a solid case for being on the roster instead of players Zaidi has promoted/retained over them:
Aggressively pushed to A+ out of college, Schmitt went 8/63 (.127) in his first month. Since then, Schmitt has done nothing but destroy pitching at every level. Most impressive was hitting .342 in the Eastern League, which is the hardest league in baseball, as virtually every park is a severe pitcher's park. He also won a gold-glove in the minors last year and constantly draws rave reviews for his defensive skills. He's been vastly better than Beaty & Wisley at every corresponding level.
Johnson may be a bit of a light-hitting CFer, but he's (reportedly) a good defender, has progressed as a hitter over time and, IMO, earned his chance. He may never be a good hitter or more than a good defensive OFer like Juan Perez, but neither is Beaty or Wiley and as a solid defensive CFer/4th OFer he's certainly (in my eyes at least) more valuable than a pair of limited and (like Johnson) lightly regarded players.
Hjelle is, prima facie, the weakest case to make. His AAA numbers haven't been great, but he's pitching in the PCL(5.39 league ERA) so it's hard to tell from AAA. Especially as the Giants AAA team hasn't been that great recently. Without a good defense in the HR-fest PCL, even ground-ball pitchers like Hjelle will tend to struggle.
In his limited call-up last year Hjelle (58% ground ball rate) wasn't as bad as his ERA. His K/9 and BB/9 were solid. The real problems were in two areas. First, te was routinely burned by the Giants infield defense and bad luck as the MLB BABIP for ground-balls is .239, while his was .283. He also got burned big-time on flyballs. Of the just 9 flyballs he allowed, he gave up 4 hits, 3 of which were home runs. That's a .444 average and 2.000 OPS and unlikely to be anything but a blip. The good news is his line-drive stats were extremely close to MLB average. Over all, his profile is one of a solid #3, good #4 who got burned a few times and, consequently, had severely distorted stats.
Yet we have Beaty and Wisely. Two guys who do not inspire confidence for the present or, unless they each take a great leap, look to be part of a winning future.
I think FZ is smart and has proven that he's good at his job, but the Beatty move made me wonder if the FO over thinks these moves sometimes. Johnson has speed something the team lacks, and is a good defender. He probably would be sent down, once Haniger comes off the IL, but he should have made the roster. I agree I want to see some of the kids get a chance to play this year. Schmidt - disappointed he was sent down, but they want to see Villar at 3rd and Crawford at SS. No room? His defense would help them now. Maybe they should accelerate his development. Wisely #24 Giants prospect according to MLB pipeline. Heard Jim Callis say Wisely can play and picked him as a sleeper to help the Giants this year. I hope Kap gives him a chance to play. Hjellie should get called up once the schedule has less days off. Kyle Harrison - I'm sure he'll get a chance after 2 months of AAA experience. It will be time soon to Let the kids play!!! Almost forgot that why hasn't the FO made a trade to upgrade Center field and catchers maybe they don't want to trade their good prospects? Just speculating.
DeleteI think people are massively naive about the competency of sports executives. Yesterday, to put a pin in the 'he was drafted 3rd (Trey Lance) so must be good' balloon in a 49ers forum I did an analysis of every QB taken with the third pick of the NFL draft since John Brodie in 1957. Of the 13 men selected, 77% (10) of them failed. Brodie (1x Pro Bowl) was the second best (era adjusted) while Matt Ryan, 4x Pro-Bowls was the best. Coming in third was McNair who the Titans spent at least half a decade trying to replace because he was a poor QB though he did have one spectacular outlier of a season.
DeleteIn baseball we have many of the same problems with 'everbody knows' stuff that doesn't bear scrutiny. The easiest to talk about is the batting order which is sub-optimal for run production. Yet every manager follows it because sometime in the 1800s it was formalized. In the 1800s people had a lot of stupid ideas and no tools with which to evaluate them. Yet despite us developing the tools in the 1970s and clearly demonstrating in tens of thousands of simulations that there is a better way... We still get crap batting orders from HOF managers and virtually everyone still thinks it's the best way...
Prospect evaluation is another massive failure. Heck just look at the #1 prospect rankings by the MLB for the Giants going back to 2011 (their first year) when Brandon Belt was their #1. Belt is the only one they've gotten right. Bottom-line is I'm looking at a group of experts that has, with repeats, anointed 13 prospects as #1. Of those 13 rankings, three prospects are still no-decisions as they're still in the minors (though it's looking pretty bad for Ramos who can't hit in the PCL...). Of the other 10 rankings, only Brandon Belt has been an actual success.
The rest have been fringe with at least two out of the majors (Brown, Beede).
Now here is the important part: Many prospects ranked under them have done better. At least four of them have become All-Stars (one of whom wasn't even ranked in the Top-30) at least once in their career.
Those are our are experts. And it's like that in all sports. Scouting is limited, biased and (generally) laughably wrong. Because most of what makes players succeed in professional sports goes way, way beyond what is measurable. So they pick laughable measurables that don't correlate to long-term success. So he can run fast, so can Usian Bolt, but I'm not going to pretend he can play CF... Yet that's what the scouts do...
Which is why I always urge folks to not get too wrapped up in the exact order of DrB's Giants Top 50 Prospects lists but to use it as a tool to get to know the players in the farm system better.
DeleteBatting order - there is a better way.
DeleteOne better way or several better ways (perhaps even including the conventional one)?
I ask this question, as it seems to me, intuitively and not with thousands of simulations, that the batting order may have to respond or adjust to how the game is played, or the rules, which might have altered since1800s in many, many ways, in various directions (even reverting to previous periods, maybe). Would an emphasis on speed or base stealing change how the batting order (and the roster) is constructed, for example? And if in the future, a rule is introduced that there be only one out, or 5 outs, per inning, would that not alter the optimal batting order?
Over reaction, anyone?
ReplyDeleteThere is a possible explanation, however tenuous, at least for the Beaty part: the Giants don't believe that Wade is going to regain his flash performance for part of one year and this was a one-off chance to get a LH 1B with ML experience on the cheap. Relatively. Beaty is 8/9 months older than Wade.
The L/U is tougher to explain. Flores or Villar against a tough RHP on Opening Day in Yankee Stadium? Make it a little easier on the "young" player? Flores has earned it for past efforts?
Perez or Bart? Perhaps to give a little aid to Webb?
Wisely, the backup IF, in the OF? After pinch hitting for Sabol with Villar (?), someone has to play OF. Could have been Wade but he was already in the OF because Kapler had pulled YtY to PH with Davis to get a match-up. Being FZ's man, Kap can't help himself either.
Once the Yankees had a comfortable lead, on a cold NY afternoon, did it really matter who played?
Although it's only ONE game of 162, it wasn't a great performance: the Giants will struggle this year to score runs and to come back in this situation was not going to happen.
Opening in Yankee stadium in March was never going to be easy.
Now, it's up to Kap to get the G-men ready for this weekend.
I share the emotional baggage of losing badly on opening day, but it may be revealing to study FZ's moves from a longer term perspective. I looked up the MLB option rules and it appears that sending a player to the minors during the season (who has options that year) can be done up to 5 times a year, after which time the player must be Designated for Assignment. For Hjelle and Schmitt and Bryce Johnson, they likely fit this description and having them start in the minors could be strategic (to preserve the number of times they can be sent during the season). In the longer term analysis, I'm hopeful that none of these players will need to be designated later on in the season. One could say that the FO is willing to lose the short term start of the season to preserve roster flexibility in the long run. Doesn't feel great but maybe we need to wait a month before making judgments?
ReplyDeleteBaggs clearly explained this option strategy on KNBR. I was also surprised that Johnson & Hjelle weren't on the roster, but expect them to be standing on the line for the Giants home opener.
DeleteCatchers take longer than any other position to become what they'll be. Personally hope that Bart gets a month before cutting bait. Gary Sanchez can't hit OR catch.
From TA:
DeleteJohnson had been out-righted off the 40-man roster in November, and players who are out-righted a second time can elect free agency. In other words, the last thing the Giants wanted was to add him to the 40-man, then experience a 40-man crunch as they sought to potentially add others who might have shaken loose at the end of camp.
Johnson isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he was reassigned and not optioned — meaning he will not be subject to the 10-day minimum stay for players on optional assignment. In other words, the Giants can promote him whenever they wish on this season-opening trip to New York and Chicago.
Whenever Johnson does get added to the 40-man roster, the Giants will be able to option him back and forth to Sac as needed.
And I was wrong about Sanchez:
2022 numbers
K rate on borderline pitches
Bart: 47.0%
Sánchez: 47.2%
Blocks Above Average
Bart: -9 (3,308 opps.)
Sánchez: -2 (3,093 opps.)
Arm
Bart: 82.4 mph
Sánchez: 86.3 mph
Exchange
Bart: 0.77 sec.
Sánchez: 0.75 sec.
Pop time to 2B
Sánchez: 1.93 sec.
Bart: 1.97 sec.
Now Giants just signed catcher Gary Sanchez. He will report to minors, but I have to believe that Farhan is working the lines to trade Joey Bart. Maybe Joey will get lucky and get traded to Colorado where he can accumulate some HRs.
ReplyDeleteGiants signed Gary Sanchez to a minor league deal. He can opt out if he's not on the major league roster by May 1st. Based on what Pav's said that nobody stood out in the catching competition, this is not a surprise.
ReplyDeleteYep, Giant's are boring to watch now. I don't like this type of baseball. Hate to say it but Craw and Yatz are done. This is hard on the fan.
ReplyDeleteGary Sanchez was just assigned to a minor league deal. Hence, Bart's career with the Giants is now done. I look forward to him starring for another team. Probably the DBacks or Dodgers.
ReplyDeleteSentiment about the Giants opening day lineup is pretty clear, it stinks. To think a week prior I was laughing at what the A’s were trotting out. Too bad because I really believe in our pitching staff. Hoping a young player like Villar or Bart can breakout because the only player I really trust at this point is Estrada. Missing the days of Aurillia, Bonds and Kent or even Sandoval, Posey and Pence in the heart of our order.
ReplyDeleteHow about the 2000 starting eight during the steroid era? This team was fun to watch hit.
ReplyDelete1 C Bobby Estalella
2 1B J.T. Snow*
3 2B Jeff Kent
4 SS Rich Aurilia
5 3B Bill Mueller
6 LF Barry Bonds*
7 CF Marvin Benard*
8 RF Ellis Burks
Who are in the current "Giants" core that they have drafted?
ReplyDeletePlayers drafted 5 to 8 years ago, from 2013 to 2018 with some holdovers from earlier and maybe a couple later should be the heart of the current team as the spectacular players from Cain to Posey were for the glory years 2010 through 2016 (the last date is included because it was almost).
Who fits that?
2013 Tyler Rogers 4.4 bWAR
2014 Logan Webb 8.5, Austin Slater 3.9
2015 None
2016 None (Bryan Reynolds could have been*)
2017 None (Ramos/Johnson perhaps)
2018 Bart/Hjelle/Villar hopefully combined thus far for 2.4 WAR
Pre 2013 Crawford playing out the string
Post 2018 McCray/McDonald/Waites plus the strong 2020 group coming and hopefully later classes.
The Giants are weak now because they failed the draft since Crawford with only a one exception: Webb.
FZ coming aboard had nothing to work with - that's why he churns on, trying to patch sooo many holes.
If his draft classes from 2019 (weak) to the current 2022 are no better than 2013 to 2018 then he is to blame, but not yet.
Churn on and develop the many good players NOW in the system. FZ's trades and signings are the only reason the Giants are a .500 team - remember 2017: 64-98 record wasn't very long ago.
Good information. Thanks. Not "current SFG" but Panik, Duvall and Duffy were drafted after Craw35 and were MLB quality. But yes, lots of bad picks.
DeleteRead: current Giants.
DeletePanik helped a lot in 2014 and a little in 2016
Duffy helped a little in 2014 and some in 2016
Duvall's contribtion to SF after one uneventful year (2014 but not on the post season roster) was being traded for Mike Leake - not sure that helped anything
Agree good info and a fair assessment. Hopefully FZ's drafts and international signings will have better results.
DeleteThat's an interesting take. But it's incomplete. What you don't include on your list is the five All-Stars(at least once) that were traded away because most fans (which probably includes you) think 'win now, damn the torpedoes' is the way to go: Wheeler (2x), Duvall (plus a Gold Glove), Castillo (2x), Reynolds (1x, at least you mentioned him) and I'm having a brain fart on the 5th.
DeleteThere are also multiple traded/DFAd players that have managed to eek-out some sort of career as relievers, utility men, 4th OFers, etc. -- Bickford, Crick, Arroyo, Duggar, Suarez, Baragar, Menez, etc. Some are still toiling in the minors for other teams like Krook, Baragar (he makes the list twice!) or for the Giants (Wong, Winn, etc.) and their story hasn't ended.
That we have traded away so many top prospects, including those five future All-Star players, is the inevitable result of impatient fans creating an environment that pushes GMs to win now (or be fired) instead of playing the long game. Clearly, much of this 'failure to develop' issue is because Sabean & Evans did not play the long 'roster health' game, but played the win-now game the majority of the fanbase demands.
I don't blame the GMs for that even though I hate it. It's do that or be fired.
I think Doc posted one time looking at where we picked over a certain time period, roughly corresponding to the years in question in your comment, I believe, with the conclusion that we could not have done better most of, if not all, the cases
DeleteJust to be clear, I don't think starting Villar instead of Flores or any of the head-spinning last minute roster moves made any difference in the outcome of Opening Day. It's the process I am questioning here.
ReplyDeleteBefore any Giant "fans" cash in their tickets because the team's offense didn't show up against "one of the elite pitchers in baseball when healthy and on" shut down the "bad" Giants lineup in the Opener in chilly Yankee Stadium, consider what happened to the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals, all at home, in the last 2 days.
ReplyDeleteSerious contenders all, favorites to be division winners, all playing at Home, San Diego dropped 2 games to the Rockies (the Rockies on the road?), Los Angeles split with the D'backs, and St Louis, a favorite in the Central division, lost leads in the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning to the Jays, 3 different pitchers, to lose their home opener.
The Mets, another favorite, split games in Miami.
The Champion Astros split at home with the White Sox.
World Series runnerups Phillies lost to the Rangers.
If the World Series started today, would it be the Braves and Yankees, each 1-0.
If the handwriting on Doc's blog is bad, don't read The Athletic! So-called Fans there are paying money to trash FZ - it's unreadable!
Believe it or not, the Giants lost the 2021 opener in Seattle on their way to 107 wins!
Happy April's Fools Day, fans, but this is all true.
'So-called fans' is a crap argument. Fans are diverse in their processes. I think much of what Sabean and Evans did because of 'win-now' instead of 'long-term health' fans pushes GMs into creating the inevitable fall and bankrupt farm system. I don't much care for that kind of fandom. Yet that is the prevailing way of fans - short-term, win-now.
DeleteI don't assert they're fake fans. Short-sighted, absolutely. But they're not 'so-called' or 'fake' fans. Unlike the bandwagon fans that only show up when teams are good.