Monday, September 23, 2013

Thoughts on Buster Posey's Future

Buster Posey is a very good baseball player.  So good that he won an MVP award in his 3'rd MLB season leading his team to a World Series Championship in the process.  Not a small part of what makes Buster so valuable is the position he plays.  Catchers who can hit like him and play good defense in the process might be the rarest commodity in baseball.

The Giants know full well just how valuable Buster is and made sure he would play under their banner for most, if not all, of the rest of his career.  They committed themselves to paying him a lot of money to accomplish that, $167 M over 9 years(2013-2021 plus a club option for 2022 to be exact).  That is a lot of money for a long time!

The problem for Buster and the Giants, and part of the reason Buster is so valuable as a catcher, is that catching is not just a physically demanding position to play.  It is a physically dangerous position to play.  Buster himself has already had one career threatening injury and a whole multitude of lesser dings and dents along the way.  While you can find examples of catchers who remained productive over a long period of time, baseball history has many examples of catchers whose careers were cut short or became less productive due directly to injuries suffered in the line of duty.

We have witnessed a marked decline in Buster's offensive output over the second half of this season.  While we cannot be sure of the reasons for that, it seems likely that it is tied to catching too many games in the first half as well as nagging injuries such as the foul tip that fractured the tip of his right 4'th fingertip a few weeks ago.  Buster is a big man, but he is not particularly big for  catcher.  He also does not have a typical catcher's frame.  This may leave him more vulnerable to injury and fatigue than most catchers.

Buster Posey can also play other positions.  He played all 9 positions in one game once while in college.  In the pros, he has only played 1B as a secondary position.  He plays first base adequately, but not particularly well.  He has hit better when he plays first base than when he catches, and his hitting is certainly more than adequate for a first baseman, but it is not an elite level of hitting for that position as his hitting at catcher is.

Buster could well play another 8 years at catcher without suffering another serious injury.  He could also move to first base and suffer a career ender.  The probabilities are, however, that he is more likely to get injured playing catcher than playing first base. Aside from a serious, career-ending injury, he would not be squatting or taking foul tips off his mask or hands on a daily basis while playing first base.  The probabilities favor him maintaining or improving on his offensive output if he is at first base than at catcher.  Of course, he could move to another position where his bat might be more valuable than first base, most notably third base, but we have yet to see him play there.

I think everybody pretty much agrees that Buster is not going to stay at catcher for the full length of his contract. The question is how urgent is it to make a decision to move him off the position.  Since injuries can happen at any time, each day that Buster stays at catcher carries a risk of that being the day his career effectively ends rendering the remainder of his contract a sunk cost.  The decision for the Giants comes down to whether they want Buster to be more valuable at the front end of his contract or more valuable at the back end, with some risk that if they take the first option, you could lose the back end entirely.  What I think is also clear to everybody is that if Buster does continue to play catcher, he will need to catch fewer games, thus diminishing his positional value anyway.

In evaluating all of the above information, I favor moving Buster to first base full time next year rather than risking another season with him behind the plate.  Really, the Giants have already made their decision, or should have.  If the strategy is to maximize Buster's value at the front end of his career, then it would have made more sense to go year-to-year during his arbitration years and not take on the risk of the long term deal.

58 comments:

  1. Sign a veteran like Carlos Ruiz and platoon him with Sanchez behind the plate. Move Posey to first and Belt to left field (platoon with Perez) at least for the 2014 season, but slowly work Posey in at 3rd as well to give him a little experience. If Panda is traded sometime during the year or is allowed to leave in free agency, move Posey to 3rd for good. Btw, this also allows us to spend more on pitching which is the key to winning championships for this organization.

    Eventually (2015/16?), these guys will settle into their positions: Posey at 3rd, Adrianza at SS, Crawford at 2nd, Belt at 1st.

    ~AP

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    1. Are you really recommending PLATOONING Belt and JCP???

      The days of Belt playing anything less than 8 games out of 9 are behind us. He is not a platoon guy.

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    2. True platoon with Belt? No. When Perez plays in LF you play Belt at 1st. Or just play Belt in LF 100%, I don't care. The bigger point was about moving Posey out from behind the plate.

      ~AP

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  2. Love the speculation. Anyone ask Buster what he wants to do? I think he has some small say in this.

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    1. Similaly with starting pitchers about a 6-man rotation.

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    2. Buster is a tough guy. Of course he is going to say he wants to catch. When the team has 9 years and $167 M invested in him, I'm not sure his wanting to prove he is a tough guy should be the deciding factor. You do what is best for the team.

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    3. OK, depth chart:

      LF: Belt, Panda, Blanco
      CF: Pagan, Blanco, Peguero, Perez
      RF: to be announced
      3B: Panda, Posey, Arias, Crawford
      SS: Crawford, Adrianza, Arias
      2B: Scutaro, Ariias, Adrianza
      1B: Belt, Posey, Pill, Panda
      C: Sanchez, Posey, Panda, Susac (arriving July)

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    4. Since when did Pablo Sandoval suddenly become a LF?

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  3. On a personal level, of course they'll hear Posey out in terms of what he wants to do. But technically speaking, Posey is an "asset" the team owns and they (ownership group/GM/manager) alone ultimately decide how best to utilize that asset to maximize return on their multi-million dollar investment. It sounds cold and in personal, but it's not....it's just business, and MLB is a business.

    In terms of speculation on this blog, it's all part of the fun of playing virtual GM.

    ~AP

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    1. AP, love to be a fly on the wall you inform Posey he is now playing 1B/3B. Oh, and it's just business, nothing personal. ;-)

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    2. They of course have to approach him tactfully and engage him in a dialogue, but again, the needs of the team have to come first.

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    3. @Shark - What's Buster going to do if/when informed that he's being moved to 1B/3B? Mope, pout, play terribly to spite management, tear up his 9 year, $167M contract? He might be pissed for a bit (or he might not be, who knows), but he's a professional and he'll get over it. Especially when he sees guys like Hector and Susac taking foul ball shots to the head or off their fingers. I think you're making way too big a deal about Posey's feelings on the matter. Like DrB said, it can be done tactfully and respectfully, but also made extremely clear that it's in the best long-term interest of the team, the organization and for him to make this move now (if that's in fact what they decide).

      But to make it personal, if it was me telling someone that I'm paying $167M over 9 years to that they'll have to move positions for their benefit and for my team's benefit, it would be a very short and sweet discussion. I wouldn't be a dick about it, but I also wouldn't give to sh**s how they felt about it. But that's me.

      ~AP

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  4. I tend to agreement AP, but I guess I would state it slightly differently. I don't know how you settle Posey without having a hard look at Panda. Moving Belt to Of and Posey to 1b only makes sense if we have a solution at 3b and I just don't see Panda being it. Now, it could be Crawford, but I also tend to think (unles Panik finds a green lantern or hit by gamma rays) is better for 2B, assuming of course that Adrianza is the real deal at SS. It would be far better for us to have a solid infield that could rival the dreaded Doyers of the 70s, then have have a hole at 3b and a marginal (if athletic) OF.

    Although not necessarily sanguine about the outcome, I'm modestly hopeful JP can grab the CF position too. If so, that would be another reason to have Posey at 3b.

    Transition would be:

    Posey at 3b in off season.
    Have him back up Panda on days off. Panda plays for contract and then we do a QO and get another pick.
    Posey at 3b in 2015. Either with Adrianza and Crawford, or Crawford and Panik.

    OF is Pagan, Perez and Preacher (with Mac coming up).

    PiLamBear

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    1. Another option of course is to move Panda to LF (I've seen worse possible defenders playing out there), move Posey to 3rd permanently (even Boch has speculated on that) and keep Belt at 1st permanently. Perez could always come in as a late inning defensive replacement for Panda.

      This speculation of course is moot if we're active in free agency, though my sense is we won't be able to land a big bat and will have to reshuffle some of the guys we already have to make it all work.

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    2. Pablo Sandoval in LF? Now THAT is a novel idea! Ain't gonna happen!

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    3. Doc, while I agree that will not happen, I remember saying the same thing about Panda at 3B back in '08...

      "Dude has played about 8 games at 3B his entire professional career. IT AINT HAPPENING!"

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    4. I think if Panda can play LF, he can play C.

      How about this: Panda and Posey split 3B (not 50-50 of course0 with Sanchez, Posey and Panda sharing C.

      Furthermore, Posey relieves Belt at 1B once in a while against Kershaws of the world.

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    5. Pablo Sandoval is NOT going to play any OF position, EVER!

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    6. And to an exponential power on top of what DrB said, that goes for Pablo catching regularly!

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    7. I think Panda is well suited for catching Zito and will be especially handy when Barry returns next year.

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  5. Posey is tough, but catching Timmy has to be like purgatory to a Catholic. The ball dives down so sharp it ricochets right into the chest pad or cup (gasp!). Over the year of 30 starts and sinker ball relievers, a lot bruises form in areas not desired. Take your Little Leaguer in the back yard and have him toss a ball in the in the dirt at you...

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  6. I am going to spitball a wild guess here. Posey is staying with the tools of ignorance in 2014 and most likely 2015.

    a) Sanchez has potential but ain't a full time catcher until 2015 at the earliest, Yes, he is a switch hitting catcher with some pop, but he has a ways to go defensively with positioning, framing pitches, passed balls and handling a staff through 140 games. Plus he has to show he can stay on the field with better diet and conditioning. These are not small liabilities.

    b) The farm has some potential talent led by Susac, but again all the prospects are at least two years out.

    c) Given the other holes to fill, the Giants ain't adding FA catcher to the list.

    So Posey it is. And I ain't gonna be disappointed with this, not even a wee bit.

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    1. @Shark - You only add a FA catcher if you move Posey to 3rd and Pablo to LF. And of course, if you do that you eliminate the need to bring in other pricey position players which means you can spend more on quality starting/relief pitching. So the free agent catcher is not "in addition to" all the other holes; it's "instead of" filling all the other holes, we plug the catcher role with a veteran/Sanchez, move Posey to 3rd and Pablo to left. One relatively inexpensive signing creates a domino effect, addressing the other holes in the roster and creates more space to re-sign Pence, re-sign Lopez, maybe even Timmy and 1 TOTR starter.

      Also, getting a veteran like Ruiz allows for more of a platoon and not putting all the burden on Sanchez. Plus the benefit of having Ruiz mentor Sanchez (or possibly Susac) would only expedite his development.

      So I have no issue keeping Posey behind the plate. I just think both for his long-term health/production and for the good of the roster, his moving to a different position is the better play. But again, pure speculation on my part.

      ~AP

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    2. Mean to say, "Timmy and/or 1 TOTR starter."

      ~AP

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    3. Another possibility: for the first 60 to 80 games, Posey and Sanchez split catching. After that, Susac comes up and splits with Posey and Sanchez.

      I figure that works out to be about 70 games to 90 games for Buster.

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  7. Perhaps FanGraphs has studied this, but is there any way to study the year-to-year stats of Hall of Fame catchers in the past? We have Joe Mauer as a similar case study currently as an excellent offensive two way catcher but I would be curious about how productive catchers have been in the past as they progress in their careers.

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    1. The only one I looked up was Johnny Bench. He had 12 seasons in which he performed at a high level with over 20 HR's. His best two seasons were his second full season and 5'th if I remember correctly and those two seasons, in which he hit 40+ dingers in each, were significantly better than any other seasons in his career.

      Buster has played 4 full seasons so far(I'm counting 2010 as a full season even though he was not called up until May, and 2011 even though it was cut short by injury).

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    2. Correction: Bench's best seasons were his 3'rd and 5'th full seasons by a fairly big margin. He tailed off dramatically after his 12'th full season.

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  8. Giants should move Posey from catcher as soon as next year. They've have invested $160m on him, contract is only beginning and hes the one of the most important players on the team, more like the most important. We've all seen what happened when he got injured in 2012, the Giants season was practically over. He is the franchise, the best hitter on the team, how Posey goes the Giants go, especially in hitting.

    Just look at Joe Mauer, out for the rest of the season with a concussion or symptoms of it (he took a foul ball to the mask).

    Catcher is like RB in the NFL, after 5-8 season the productivity starts to decrease dramatically.

    Move Posey to either 1B or 3B and let him catch 40-60 games a season until Hector or Susac or a free agent can handle the position permanently.

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    1. The concussion thing is actually what got me thinking along these lines. We are seeing more and more of them in catchers from foul tips off the mask. Mike Matheny's career ended after he suffered a series of them.

      The Giants CANNOT afford to have that happen to Buster Posey!

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    2. I agree that the concussion thing along with other injury risks are legit concerns for the org to come up with a long term plan for Busters future due to the big $$ they're paying him. If they move Posey to 1st base full time in 2014, I wonder if the org is comfortable moving Belt to LF? I thought we would see Belt play a few games in LF when Posey played 1st base this year, but it didn't happen. Belt ended up on the bench. I think a long off season will do Posey good because alot has happenend to him the past 3 seasons, catching those extra games during 2 WS runs and rehabbing the serious ankle injury in between.

      LG

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  9. I agree that his value is as a catcher. If you go by the very unscientific measurement of Yahoo baseball fantasy ranks, a Posey is the 6th most valuable catcher (he was much higher until the last month). As a first baseman, he is the 22nd most valuable player this year.

    However, catching so many games seems to have taken its toll this year. I think you keep him at catcher another year. If his offense still suffers after another year, move him.

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    1. Belt is 18th at 1b

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    2. But there is some evidence that Buster may hit better if he played 1B fulltime.

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    3. True but I would like to see him strengthen his legs and try to catch 100 or so games. He is also a good defensive catcher and Hector isn't yet.

      My other idea is the Giants could sign Brian McCann and move Posey to 1b and Belt to LF.

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    4. Oh, I don't know about the defense part. Hector is not a bad on D as he's been made out to be by the Naysayers and he is showing improvement.

      Signing Brian McCann is a really bad idea!

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    5. McCann would cost the QO, he would be a 4/50MM? Maybe? I don't know, I was way off on what I thought Napoli would get (way high). McCann is entering the 30s with injury history. But he sure can hit some.

      There are some serious question marks on who gets the qualifying offer. Would Napoli get one? Would Josh Johnson get one? Even Seattle with Kendry Morales, they have to be kicking it around some. 14MM is a lot of cabbage for a MLB team, and owners don't like to overpay. On the other hand, the short term contracts that Giants fans loved to complain about like Huff or Tejada or DeRosa or Renteria... they all went away pretty quickly.

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    6. Napoli only got $5M last season and he was a free agent, just like this off-season. And he hit roughly what he hit last season, only last season he played some catcher too while only playing 1B this season. Plus he's a year older today, next season is his 32 YO season. He should not be getting an QO, cause if he did, he would take it in a heartbeat, he's never made that much before in his life. And he lasted until January to sign.

      So I can't see demand for his services to be that high or that heated. That's why I would like to pick him up as FA, push Belt to LF (where he played in high school, plus he has good legs and is athletic), then he, Posey, and Hanchez can share starting duties at C and 1B, with, of course, Posey getting most at C, Napoli most at 1B, and Hanchez 30-40 starts at C.

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    7. Money will probably go towards getting starting pitching first.

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    8. Well the Bosox had a bigger offer that they clipped after the med exam. And he had incentive clauses, so it's not 5MM. Like I said, there are fringe guys that can be attractive or blown up by their own teams QO. Johnson would take Toronto's offer as well most likely.

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    9. Napoli had a lot more than $5 M lined up until the medical exam showed his hips had blown out. Now that he's proven he can play on those bad boys, he might get a lot more on a 1 year deal, but teams are not going to want to go longterm with him.

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  10. Didn't bother to read all the comments, but I think 3B is going to be the natural fit for him for a few reasons. First, he played SS in college, so he obviously knows how to use his hands. He has a strong arm (closed some in college), so he can make those throws. And everyone knows 3B is more about being reactionary than overly athletic and quick (Pablo can play a good 3B when he's trim). Another reason is just the natural fit. A lot of people tend to think Pablo is on his way out the door, with teammates grumbling about his conditioning and his up and down play. Brandon Belt solidified himself as a real player with more projection and power and he is most comfortable at 1B. I think the Giants have adequate depth in the minors (Susac) to play behind Hector Sanchez. Sanchez also seems to be a late bloomer with some power potential - if he started every game, I'm confident the Giants would do no worse than league-average at the plate for a catcher.

    He has to move sooner than later. You protect an investment like the Giants made with Posey. He's too valuable on the field and with fans to risk losing him to injury. If he can play C, 1B and 3B - it would really increase the Giants' flexibility to who they can sign. Thoughts?

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    1. Agree 100%. I think it's best to move Posey to 3rd and leave Belt at 1st. Maybe Panda is a trade piece this off season to get back a quality left fielder.

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    2. I'm not saying Buster can't play 3B. I believe Bochy has suggested that as a possibility. I don't think it's as obvious as you are making it sound here.

      1. Why do people keep bringing up the SS thing? Almost every young player with a little bit of athleticism has played SS at some point in their life. Buster played it very early in his college career and for 1 inning in the game he played every position in.

      2. I'm pretty sure Buster has not played more than 1 inning of 3B in his life and none at all since turning pro. How can anybody say it's an obvious natural fit?

      I don't know if or how the Giants will work Buster into the 3B mix, but they are not going to just trade Pablo and give the job to him this offseason. Take that to the bank!!

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    3. Let me clarify DrB and I agree your point is valid.

      I think Pablo at third this coming season is a lock. He won't be traded, especially with his stock lower than it can potentially (and very easily) could be.

      As for Buster playing SS, this isn't a High Schooler with a decent, accurate arm and some range playing SS, he was at a major D1 school! I suppose this isn't an obvious fit where we can just assume he could do it. I do know there have been some players (Brandon Inge, most recently) play 3B fairly easily after playing catcher...

      I suppose my rationale is just that if Belt is our first baseman (he seems to be, in my opinion) and that he is not a really smooth fit in LF, 3B seems to be the next logical move for Posey. It also seems to me that if Posey can play 3B (which is obviously yet to be determined), then his flexibility as a C, 1B and 3B makes him extremely valuable on any given day and gives the Giants extreme flexibility when approaching free agent classes and the promotion of prospects.

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    4. So he played SS briefly in college. That is not terribly impressive if you ask me. There is a reason he didn't stay there!

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    5. Great blog here. Just saying, I somewhat agree with the other anonymous. However, have you considered the fact that even if Posey did play and was recruited as a major D1 shortstop that he was about 25lbs. lighter and that it was prior to a very major injury and surgery? Also, the enormous investment that "has to be protected" is really only worth the investment, in my opinion, if he play mostly catcher. A slightly above average first baseman isn't worth that money and even a decent third baseman isn't either... He's worth it because he is elite at a position that lacks real stars, save a few, at the big league level.

      3B seems like the most logical spot other than catcher and first, but I'm just not so sure the Giants wouldn't just be hiding him as a defensive liability for his bat if he was in the field anywhere but 1B or C. Belt to LF, even if it is "not a really smooth fit," is probably more likely than Posey at third... Plus, I think this conversation has drifted to Posey finding a new position, whereas with his bat being so prime behind the dish I'd say the best thing to do is carry 3 catchers with the intention of allowing Buster to catch maybe 70+, play in the field 70+ and take 10-15 games a season off (assuming he's healthy).

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  11. DrB, neither you, I nor anyone else other than the Giants know exactly what they will/will not do; saying so with such certainty is rather meaningless. One of the key voices in this though said, "“I think he’d be a really good third baseman,” Bochy said. “We like him where he’s at now. And this is something (that would happen) if he took the time to learn it in the offseason and spring training. But he’s an athlete and he has the hands and the arm.”

    The point being, the man that would have as much insight into this as anyone, believes it's doable and would take an offseason/ST to transition. That doesn't mean it WILL happen, but clearly it's within the realm of possibility based on the thinking of an extremely credible source.

    Same with trading Pablo, moving him to 1st, moving him to LF, keeping him where he's at, extending him or letting him walk. Nobody knows for certain what they will do with him but it's fun to speculate. Saying what WILL or WILL NOT happen though is silly, IMO, regardless of how forceful you say it.

    ~AP

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    1. Maybe that will motivate Pablo, without actually moving Posey there...

      I don't know if Bochy works like that, but the 49ers do that a lot.

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    2. Sorry, AP. Moving Pablo to LF is a nutty idea and it won't happen.

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    3. Oh, and trading Pablo to give 3B to Buster without Buster having played so much as an inning there in his pro career is also a nutting idea and is not going to happen.

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    4. Trading Pablo isn't a nutty idea though, he's our best trade chip, especially with an eye towards long term.

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    5. I know trading Pablo is a bit of a fetish for you, Shankbone, but that ain't happenin' either.

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    6. If not, too bad. If PS's playing harder for his contract year appeals to the Giants, as some writers have claimed, why shouldn't it appeal to some other GM ? We can, I suppose, get somebody useful and specific for him now; the longer we wait, the less likely that seems. Clearly we don't want to let him go too cheaply or in such a way as to leave a hole in the lineup and the infield. But does it strain credulity to think that we can get reasonable value for him now, without making a mess for ourselves, as easily as we are likely to do as the 2014 season wears on?

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    7. DrB - Just saying that something is a nutty idea without explaining why and having someone respond in kind is pretty shallow of you. You've never said exactly why moving Pablo to LF "will never happen," when infielders move to the outfield fairly regularly in the majors. Even more to the point, many teams put good-hit-poor-defensive guys in LF to ensure their bat stays in the lineup. You're making it seem as though I'm suggesting taking Aldon Smith and put him in left.

      Btw, I'm not pushing for Pablo to move to left, nor am I pushing for him to get traded, I'm merely speculating. And I'll say it again, you actually don't know what they will or won't do so speaking as if you do ("that ain't happenin") only diminishes whatever credibility you have.

      ~AP

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  12. In other news, Baseball america is reporting that Nathanael Javier has been suspended 50 games for testing positive for steroids.

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