Friday, September 27, 2013

Game Wrap 9/26/2013: Giants 3 Dodgers 2

It wasn't quite vintage Timmy, but Tim Lincecum, in what might have been his final start as a San Francisco Giant, turned in a QS and the Giants offense scratched out enough runs to make it a winning night.  Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 1 for 4, HR(5).  BA= .277.  Pagan drove in the first run on a ground out and then drove in the game winner with a line drive HR that skipped off the top of the fence down the LF line of Paco Rodriquez.

Brandon Belt-  2 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .288.  I didn't see the first double, but it must have been hit pretty good because Belt got thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple which is pretty much of a no-no with 2 outs.  The second one was a seeing-eye flyball down the LF line that bounced about 1 foot inside the line just out of the reach of a diving Carl Crawford.

Gregor Blanco- 0 for 1, 2 BB, Assist(Home)- Blanco drew a walk and scored ahead of Belt's first double.  He then threw out Federowicz at the plate on a throw from medium deep LF that Buster Posey caught on the fly.

Tim Lincecum- 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 4.37.  Very solid start from Timmy.  I don't know if players discuss their future plans or business strategy amongst themselves in private, but from the reaction of the coaches and teammates in the dugout when he came out of the game, I would have to say they are not expecting him back next year.  His comments after the game suggest he intends to test the market too.

Timmy looks strong and appears to be in the best shape of his life, literally!  I do think I've seen progress over the course of the season in his command, confidence and a diversifying of his pitches.  On the other hand, his ERA over his last 10 starts was 4.24, which is barely better than his season average, and he had just 5 QS over his last 10 starts.

I'm pretty sure the Giants will make a QO.  Beyond that, I would not want to see them go over that in salary and not longer than 2 years.  Maaaybe 3, but that is really stretching it.  I would have to say my odds of him coming back next year just went from 50-50 to 25-75.

Brian Wilson crossed the line into self parody a long time ago.  Tonight, he managed to make a complete ass of himself by approaching Larry Baer at the railing by the Giants dugout and proceeded to rip Baer a new one for not giving him his WS ring in a separate on-field ceremony THIS SERIES.  I mean, Wilson is a Dodger fer crissakes!  Really?  He really thought the Giants were going to hold an on-field ceremony just for him while he is wearing a Dodger uniform?  The beat reporters are saying the Giants made numerous attempts to invite him to the official ring ceremony in April and also offered to give it to him in a private ceremony in the clubhouse several times during the season.  Come on, Wilson!  If you want attention that bad, you are in Hollywood!  Just get your own reality TV show and be done with it!  I don't want to even think about what stunts he might pull if he had his own show.   He can still pitch, but good riddance to THAT act!

Sabes and Bochy hold their annual end-of-season, State of the Giants presser this afternoon.  We'll be straining to read the tea leaves.

Ryan Vogelsong goes against Burch Smith of the Padres in the first game of the final series of the season.


  1. If Pagan can stay healthy, that's a different offense next year. Lots of reports out lately about the Giants swimming in the international hitting waters this winter. That could be very fun to follow! Bochy said he lifted Tim for a pinch-hitter rather than pulling him from the mound because he didn't want to make it seem like it was Tim's final night as a Giant. But, you are absolutely right. He's already said many times that he'll test free agency, and someone out there is going to pony up some good money for him. No doubt about it. The Giants, if they're smart, won't match the big offers.

    1. Huge difference with Pagan (+10) and without Pagan (-20). I know the pitching and other things enter inot it, but losing Pagan really hurt...At least his legs shouldn't be beat up for next year....Healthy pagan, re-sign Pence and somehow get a 1B/LF (either ABreau or MLB FA) and this the teams offens should be good to go next year.....The starting pitching is much more up in the air....We'll see


  2. The offseason started a while back for the Giants.

    Usually, the more time you spend on an endeavor, the more likely you will be successful.

    Interesting you say 'international hitting waters.' Are they doing something under the radar for their starting pitching?

  3. I think Timmy is gone. Seattle will pay him more, and likely give him a longer term. Timmy, while loyal, has always been very good at getting great deals. No home town discount. No "better to be home"; he'll take the money. With Seattle solidly in the bottom 10, they get Timmy with no offsetting loss of a draft pick.

    I hope the Giants stay firm. I think they will, as they've tended to be that way. Spend the money on Pence and one of (if not more) of the Cuban dudes. I actually think the 2nd baseman is interesting, as that would allow us not to have to rely so much on Panik. The first baseman gets us a LF (Belt), but seeing how Bleacher just rated Belt as a top 5 1b (yikes!) maybe the money should be put away to lock him up!

    As for SP, we have the pieces. I'm coming around to Petit as a No. 3 guy. I think one of Escobar/Surkamp will rise to the occassion at the 4 spot. We can find a quality guy for no. 5 and perhaps we do exercise Vogey's option to give us insurance (ie, we plan on him as the long reliever and have him ready as the No. 5 if we don't improve otherwise). With the money coming off of payroll, we have some options.


    1. I just can't get behind a rotation with both Petit and Surkamp. Maybe one of them gets the #5 spot, but you've got to get more proven talent in there if you want to compete.

    2. Timmy has been great at getting great deals because he has a resume no other pitcher could match, with all his accomplishments, Cy Young etc. That said, his ERA over the past two years have not been that good, and his inconsistencies should give other teams a pause. It would be charitable to say that Tim has been an average pitcher the past two years.

      No way Seattle signs him, they can't risk that much money on someone who may or may not come through. Especially with the owner dying recently, I can't imagine the new person taking over having the balls to pull off such a move as his first order.

      I think the best long-term deal Tim can get is 3 years at $30M, $10M per, as that is what an average type pitcher gets. It might stretch to $12M per, but I don't think so. Against a QO of $14M and Tim's penchant and interest in short term deals, I think there is a good chance that he takes that. But I see DrB's point too about the players' reaction, so who knows, it will be an interesting off-season.

      Though I would note that he put it out there that he would not mind signing before becoming a free agent, but without an offer, he can't react to speculation. I think he should understand that he's not going to get a great contract offer this off-season. Perhaps the Giants can meet him halfway: offer a two year contract, where the second year is a vestable option. First year is $14M, what the QO should be. That is similar in concept to how they negotiated his first two contracts, building off of what the Giants offered and Tim's agents asked for. The second year would be a team option (with minimal buyout, say $1M), for say $20M, that automatically vests if, say, Lincecum pitches 200 innings. When he's not going well, like last two seasons, it won't vest, but if he's back to goodness, he should easily make 200 innings.

      We could also make it more complicated, maybe he auto-vests a $16M at 200 IP but $20M at 210 IP and $24M at 220 IP. That gives some risk and reward to both sides. If he's pitching OK but not good, that gets him to $16M, but if he's Cy Young worthy again, that gets him $24M (because when he's going great like that, he's going to put up more innings pitched).

    3. I don't care much about signing any of the Cubans. There is a long history of failure there. And I would note that Cespedes after his great start to his career, has only hit .262/.311/.466/.777 since July 2012, and only .241/.295/.444/.739 with a lot more strikeouts this season. He's OK at .777 OPS, but overpriced at .739 OPS. Puig since his early high point, has hit .278/.365/.463/.828 since, which is still good, but not superstar. At his salary, that's probably OK, but not cheap either.

      If we can pick up a Japanese pitcher in the $10M per range (including whatever payoff you give the Japanese team) then I would be OK with it, there has been some successes but not a lot there either, most of the good ones do well in LA (an extreme pitcher's park) then look bad elsewhere, though Kuroda has been the great exception there. But SF has a pretty good pitcher's park and we only need a #3 so that could work for me.

      As long as the Giants can get one pretty experienced guy to be a #3, like Lincecum, I'm OK with Petit and Surkamp/Kickham/Escobar/Vogelsong in the 4/5 spots. We have survived bad periods like that before, and so has other teams (the D-backs redid their WHOLE rotation not that long ago, like in May, and still did well, I think they won the division, if memory serves, or at least was competitive), so I'm OK with that, with the expectation that either one of their young players force their way into the rotation by mid-season or Sabean does a trade for the Nolasco of 2014, and get a boost that way. Some risk in the rotation is tolerable, I think.

    4. Can't say I agree, not after how the rotation and team crumhbled..Why risk a repeat?. Don't get me wrong, I don't think all 5 spots will be solidified, but I see Sabean taking care of spots 3 and 4 (Lince and a FA/trade or 2 from FA/trade)...I see the5th spot being the open competition---Petit, Surkamp, Gaudin, Vogie....One thing not to discount is the trade for a young ML ready pitcher with one a few of our bevy of pitching prospects...JMO


  4. I think Seattle may be in on Timmah. Overpaying for fan favorites is the MO of the "braintrust" Howard Lincoln & Chuck Armstrong. The local media throng is noting that Wedge is the 3rd manager in 11 years to "quit" the team out of frustration (Sweet Lou & Mike Hargrove being the others). Hopefully Robby Thompson can get the managing nod, but who knows. And Jack Z has only 1 year left. Fan attendance continues to fall (for good reason). Bad karma surrounding Safeco like a thick Candlestick fog!!!

    IMHO, all this points to the M's making a run at our favorite Freak. He's a Husky ("Go Dawgs!"), and would be a good centerpiece in the Lincoln-Armstrong 2014 Free Agency masquerade...because the aren't going to sign any big RH sluggers. And with King Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma topping the rotation, Timmah could make it a top notch staff in another extreme pitchers park.

    I hope he stays (and for a reasonable price), but if he goes, get the QO pick and move on. Timmah gave us some great years, and two rings & two Cy Young awards later, he'll always be one of my favorite Giants.