Thursday, September 26, 2013

Game Wrap 9/25/2013: Giants 6 Dodgers 4

Barry Zito pitched decently enough in what is probably his final start for the Giants and got enough run support to defeat the Dodgers in AT&T Park.  Key Lines:

Buster Posey- 2 for 3, 2B, BB.  BA= .297.  Nice game for Buster who has struggled in the second half.

Pablo Sandoval- 2 for 4, HR(14).  BA= .276.  Pablo has hit .289/.364/.440 post All-Star break.  He's hitting .312/.398/.545 in September, although most of his slugging came in one 3-dinger game.  He's gotten himself in much better shape. He'll be back next year to try to win a big payday in free agency.

Tony Abreu- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B.  BA= .250.  Abreu has been a valuable reserve IF when healthy.  Giants currently have too many players who fit that description going into next year.  Somebody is going to have to go.

Barry Zito- 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 5.75.  The K's are not encouraging.  This was likely Zito's final start as a San Francisco Giant.  He's done some good things for the Giants, but I'm pretty sure most Giants fans are not sorry to see that contract come to an end.

Jean Machi- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.47.  Gotta think Machi is coming back next year.

Sergio Romo- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, Save(37).  ERA= 2.62.  Also, gotta think Romo is the closer for next year.

Tim Lincecum makes what could be his last start as a San Francisco Giant tonight facing Edinson Volquez.


  1. Thanks again for the updates! Couldn't get the game. Nice I guess for Zito to go out on a positive note (he did bail us out during last year's magical run), but I would have rather seen Bum get 200k & another win. One more win against Los Arrogantes before Timmah comes home to Safeco...and our lads get a QO pick!
    Let's Go Giants! DtF!


  2. There is a line of thinking that goes like this:

    1. You trade a few reserve/utility players for a more-or-less starter.
    2. You trade a couple of OK starters plus more utility players (or OK prospects) for a better starter
    3. You then trade a couple of better starters for a star.

    The basis for that kind of thinking is that every player has a value that we can assign to him. In math, you can add up numbers. If you keep adding positive numbers, and avoiding negative numbers, the sum should get big enough eventually.

    1. Works in theory but not necessarily in real life. Generally, the only ways to get a "star" is:

      1. Take on salary that another team wants to dump. This is getting more difficult to do as more teams have more resources to spend due to revenue sharing.

      2. Trade 2 or more top prospects for a current "star" with a team that wants to "rebuild."

      Teams will not generally take multiple lesser players for 1 "star" all other factors being equal.


    2. DrB, exactly.

      That's why I think those values people assign to players not really mathematical numbers in the sense we are familiar with.

      You can't add them up the way people do 'in real life.'

      They are some sort of mythical things.

  3. Rumor is David Price might be available. He's not eligible for FA until 2016. Would you do a deal for him that included Crick?

    1. I would not hesitate to include Kyle Crick in a deal for David Price and that is no disrespect to Crick!

  4. I would deal Crick for Price. I have been reading the blog for a couple of years and always appreciate your hard work Dr B. I wanted to add something on the Buster change of position argument. I think Buster will catch a bit longer, 1-2 more years for sure but I also see the wisdom in moving him out from behind the plate for good. Buster was a freshman all-American at FSU while playing a full season at SS. Yes, his bat was probably the main reason for AA status but he did well on Defense. After the Freshman season the head coach at FSU wanted to move him to 3B where he thought Posey would be more valuable to Major league teams but at the insistence of his son the asst coach at FSU they moved Posey to catcher due to his leadership abilities, intelligence and due to the fact they didn't have a stud catcher on the roster. I think Posey can handle 3B and his bat will play there well with 25+ HRs and a high average. I can see Posey playing and hitting as well as Longoria at 3B. We all know he has the arm for it. If Pablo had a great year this season I would be all in on moving him for a power hitting outfielder to take over LF but we can't sell low on him. There is no way in hell Pablo can or will play LF on a MLB team. Just my 2 cents.

    1. Nail on the head RBJ.

      I also wanted to chip in one thing: Value to a team is important, but you're also assembling your team to give the maximum output, NOT to maximize each player's "positional value." In this regard, Posey will be an excellent fit at 3B when he needs to be moved off of the catcher position (which I also think is only 1 or 2 years away, if that). Guys like Aubrey Huff and Will Clark led the team from 1B, while Hunter Pence does it from the outfield; when you're a leader, you're a leader, and you do that by being great at your position and stepping up when you're at the plate in big situations.

      Furthermore, I don't think Pablo's value is particularly low right now. Everyone in baseball knows what the guys is made of, and that there are only a handful of hitters in the game who rank above Panda. Teams likely smell the opportunity to nab him right now, and I think that will raise his stock via demand. The Giants have no pressure to deal and would be hard pressed to do so, but I can see a few scenarios in which it could happen.

      Last, the G's are riding the fence between rebuilding and retooling for next year, and their large pocketbook plus the great lower-minors pitching depth gives solid credence to them loading up on great hitters this offseason, who will be around for the next 3-5 years. I see Pence + 1 FA/International FA being here next year, with the ever-memorable, Big Time Timmy Jim gone to the market.

    2. For those who think that there are few hitters in the game who rank above Panda, and you can include me, though I say that in the sense of what Panda can potentially be, as he never had a full monster season yet, it only makes sense to see if we can bring forth that value.

      It's like you can have a large supply of cotton and be rich, but the real wealth is in turning that into designer T-shirts.

      No professional organization can take pride in not trying to work with him and his agent with some help from psychologists/motivational speakers, dieticians and trainers.

    3. There are a lot of college SS's who cannot sniff the position in the pros. There is also a long distance in physicality between a college freshman and a college junior let alone a 5'th year major leaguer. While I think it is possible that Buster could play a passable defense at 3B, maybe even above average, I also am not convinced it's a given based on what I see when he plays 1B.

      2 months ago, I would have said that Giants were completely fed up with Pablo Sandoval and would dump him at any price. Pablo took the initiative to get himself in a lot better shape and he's had a very good 2 months. I don't know for sure it that is enough for the Giants to get over the terrible shape he was in early in the season, but I'm guessing it is, at least for 1 more season.

      Trading Pablo creates a hole at 3B as there is no obvious full time replacement. I don't see the Giants committing to Buster as the starter there until they have seen him play there a bit. Pablo is cheap enough for next year. There are signs that he is finally on a sustainable diet and workout program that will carry over into next season.

      I think the Giants will go forward on the theory that he may have a breakout season while playing for a contract. They then can play the QO game that is going to play out with Pence and Timmy.

      The only scenario I could see in which they trade Pablo this winter is if the fail to re-sign Pence and decide to blow up the team while trying to acquire prospects and draft picks for another run starting on 2015 or 2016.