Monday, September 2, 2013

Game Wrap 9/2/2013: Padres 4 Giants 1

The Giants had their chances to get into this one, but ended up sleepwalking through Petco Park.  Key Lines:

Brandon Belt- 2 for 3, 2B, BB.  BA= .280.  I think someone told us Brandon Belt would produce a .280/.360/.475 line with 15 HR's, we'd have all said, "yeah, that's about the right progression for him," no?  He has the rest of the month to add to that HR total too.  He hit .350/.421/.630 for the month of August and has hit .315/.388/.531 in 37 games since the All-Star Break.  His R-L splits are almost identical.  He's better away than at home, which you might expect since AT&T is so tough on LH batters.  For a guy who at one point his season appeared to be headed toward oblivion, he sure has turned it around!  He is just 25 years old, so has not even reached what should be his peak years yet.  He has to be a major building block for the future and the Giants have to be pleased as punch at the way he turned his season around.

Buster Posey- 1 for 4.  BA= .307.  The 5'th inning was a microcosm of the Giants season and why I continue to believe that at least part of their failure this season is due to the luck of the BABIP gods.  With 2 outs and a run in, the Giants had runners at 2'nd and 3'rd and Buster Posey at the plate.  Buster worked the count to 3-2 then hit a line drive directly over the head of the 3B Forsythe who reached up and snagged it.  3 or 4 inches higher or a foot the the right or left, that ball drives in both runners and it's a 1 run ballgame.  As it turned out, it was the high water mark for the Giants in this one.  If the Giants were lucky in 2010 and 2012, they have been every bit as unlucky this year!

Barry Zito- 4 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 5.91.  Unfortunately, I don't think we can attribute Barry Zito's terrible numbers to luck anymore.  He was barely able to get his fastball, if that's what it was, up to 80 MPH.  To make matters worse, his pitches were up in the zone.  Can't get MLB hitters out with that kind of stuff!  Bochy hinted strongly that Petit would not be coming out of the rotation when Matt Cain returns and Zito is the obvious odd man out.  There was a rumor on Extra Giants that the Giants plan to start Zito on Fan Appreciation Day so he can get one last round of applause.  Maybe for a ceremonial 1 batter or at the most 1 inning.  More than that would be more like fan unappreciation day!  I mean, who wants to go to a game and see this?

Guillermo Moscoso- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 4.43.  Moscoso could be in the mix for long man out of the pen next year or the 5'th starter depending on how things shake out with Timmy.  For now, he's become fairly reliable for burning up 2 innings per appearance out of the pen.

Jean Machi- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.72.  This is a guy who I think has to be back next year.  He might enable the Giants to let some more expensive bullpen pieces go.

The Loss leaves the Giants in 8'th place for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft.


  1. 8th place? The Cubs of course lose to the fish. I would be very happy with #10 overall, it's protected and its been the best number for the Gigantes in 2006 and 2007.

    Belt is benefitting not only from listening to professional instruction but the natural process of getting to 2k pro at bats. All credit to him and the Giants, even though they just don't understand on-base-percentage.

    I think one question with Timmy is how much more velocity will he lose? Zito is reaching new lows. It's really tough to pitch in the 80s.

    1. Top 10 is the key as they then have a protected first rounder enabling them to potentially go after a top FA without losing it.

      Declining velocity is the problem with Timmy. I would make a QO and hope he accepts. Then you are only on the hook for 1 season and can repeat the drill next offseason. If he does not accept, man, I think I would say sayonara, Timmy and move on. Giants have some internal options and the FA market is a little better for pitchers than hitters. The vanguard of the next wave of pitching prospects should arrive in 2015.

    2. What do the Giants not understand about OBP? I'm not sure what you mean by this.

      I would love to get Lincecum for the QO and even a two year deal in that price range. Anything more and I'm out.

    3. ogc,

      Gotta get better at recognizing sarcasm! Shankbone is just making fun of the MCC crowd who insist that Sabes and his lieutenants know nothing about OBP and how to generate runs.

    4. It was indeed a sarcastic comment. If I could only kill one bad idea on the blogs it would be the Greybeards don't understand obp.

  2. Zito's walk to Kennedy was unforgivable It led to two more runs. I wonder if anyone will take a flyer on him next year or if his career is over.


  3. Giants call up Adrianza, Hembree and Monell along with the expected others. Two of these guys are not on the 40 man roster. Do the Giants DFA Tenaka and Runzler? DFA Zito so they can keep Runzler?


  4. Maybe I've had similar thoughts about BABIP, doc. For me, more than once when a well hit ball ends up caught, I think it's not like '10 or '12. Like the law of averages comes into play...

  5. OT: Baseball HQ is a fantasy league info supplier and they provided this analysis into Puig that matches what I've been saying, only more and better details.


    Tough to get a handle on Puig … Yasiel Puig’s (OF, LA) 50% h% and 33% hr/f over his first 100 MLB AB so skewed his results that it was hard to get an accurate read on his true ability. As he nears the 300-AB mark, we have a more reasonable body of data to work with:
    Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB
    ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== === ==== === === =====
    2013 278 .342 .278 8 75 42 51/19/30 143 19% 133 15% 12/ 7
    Jun13 101 .436 .318 4 80 50 53/21/27 168 33% 135 14% 7/ 4
    Jul13 94 .287 .240 8 67 40 48/23/28 121 17% 94 26% 3/ 3
    Aug13 83 .289 .268 13 78 35 52/14/35 132 9% 122 4% 2/ 0

    While his YTD line is still outlandish, his monthly splits give us a little more insight:
    His BPI show that he’s a legitimate power/speed threat in terms of raw skill. As hr/f and SBO have fluctuated, so have his HR/SB totals.

    He’s shown some resolve in bouncing back from a poor plate approach in July. As pitchers seemly have thrown him less strikes, Puig has laid off pitches out of the zone.

    His xBA over the past two months has been nothing special. Looks like his impact will be more with counting stats (HR, SB) than with BA.
    And wherever his hr/f settles, HR will be capped at least temporarily by a large GB tilt. That GB output has been about the most consistent part of his game over this three-month stretch.

    We all knew Puig would regress some after a June like he had, but we’re still getting ahold of what “normal” might look like for him. August (35% h%; 9% hr/f) is probably a working first guess for now, and the reality is that in terms of output, it might be disappointing. There’s a good chance he’s overvalued come draft day 2014.