Friday, September 6, 2013

Scouting the Draft: Mack's Mock 2014

Mack, from Big League Futures, linked over to the left, posted his first Mock Draft for 2014.  He used the standings as of 9/4 which put the Giants in the 6'th slot.  Here are the top 10 plus some more(you will see how deep this draft it):

1.  Houston- LHP Carlos Rodon, NC State.  Frontline starter off the shelf. Should be a MLB starter by early 2015.

2.  Miami- RHP Touki Toussaint, HS.  Loose armed kid with a big fastball.  Will need some development.

3.  Chicago(AL)- RHP Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt.  3 plus pitches. Needs to polish his command.

4.  Chicago(NL)- SS Trea Turner, NC State.  Rare 5 tool college SS. Has been compared to Tulo.

5.  Milwaukee- C Alex Jackson, HS.  Some scouts think he has the best HS bat in the draft.  Others say he's more of a corner OF with little or no projection.

6.  Giants- SS  Nick Gordon, HS.  Son of Tom "Flash" Gordon and brother of Dee Gordon.  A true SS with blinding speed like his bro.  Frame is a big sturdier than Dee's which may allow him to avoid being overpowered at the plate.

7.  Minnesota- 3B Jack Flaherty, HS.  Mack thinks he is the top power hitting prospect in the draft who projects to hit for average too.

8.  San Diego- OF Derek Fisher, Virginia.  Gap power.  Poor sophomore numbers.  I say there are lots of better choices here.

9.  Philadelphia- RHP Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina.  Top pitcher in the Cape Cod League this summer.  Hits mid-high 90's with finesse.  I'm not sold yet.

10.  Seattle- RHP Dylan Cease, HS.  FB 92-95 with command.  Developing secondary stuff.

11.  Toronto- RHP Tyler Kolek, HS.  I think Mack has this guy too low.  He'd be my pick at #6 but I think he might go higher.  Classic big-boned Texas RHP who sits in the upper 90's. Has hit 100 and hit 99 in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.  Looks like Roger Clemens to me.

12.  Toronto- OF Michael Conforto, Oregon St.  A fierce hitter for both power and average in college.  Some scouts question whether he can maintain the BA in the pros.  I really like him, but he does not fit the profile of a Giants first round pick.

13.  New York Mets- OF Michael Gettys, HS.  One of the best athletes in the draft.  Can both pitch and play CF but has the size you would expect of a corner player.  Bat is raw, but has potential to be special. Hit 100 MPH on a throw from the OF.


15.  Angels- SS Jacob Gatewood, HS.  Future physical monster who nobody thinks will stay as SS.  He's 6'5" and thin with all kinds of room to fill out his frame.  Had the only XBH at the PG All-American game. I saw it and it was a laser shot directly over the head of the LF that banged off the LF wall about 2 feet up.  If you want to shoot for the moon and are willing to take a risk, this is your guy.  I would seriously consider him if I held the #1 overall pick.

17.  Washington- RHP Michael Cederoth, SD State.  6'6" flamethrower who routinely hits triple digits on the gun.  Walks a few more than he should but that is quibbling.  May be a future closer.

21.  New York Yankees- RHP Luis Ortiz, HS.  Big bodied RHP in the mold of Matt Cain, who will pound the zone for inning after inning.

If you are a name freak, in addition to Touki Toussaint, who would be worth drafting for the name alone, there is also a kid named Handsome Monica and another named Jedediah Fagg.  Yeah, those are real names!


  1. If we went for a position player and Gatewood was still on the board, he would be the no-brainer pick. Absolute worse case, he's a corner OF in the mold of Giancarlo Stanton.

    Kolek should go in the top 3, but if he's around at #6 and we're looking for a SP at #6, he's another no-brainer. LHP Alex Verdugo is another HS 2-way player who could be intriguing in the top 10.


    1. I think we should start Zito every game for the rest of the season.

      This draft will influence the franchise for a long time.

  2. I don't see the SS as the first round pick. We have Crawford and despite his slump, he's very good and very young. Plus, we have a zillion other guys in the mid infield (so much so, even after you figure out who is taking over for MS, I still think you need to try to move one to third unless you think Duvall is the real deal). Hard not to be tempted by Kolek. He's young enough that even with Crick, Blackburn, etc., he'd be a few years after that. Of course, if we really do hit with the guys at A ball this year, do we really need a guy like that if we don't get anyone else. Gatewood would be a pretty cool pick, but rolling the dice on position plays hasn't exactly played out well for us (witness Brown and Panik). Interesting choices.

    I don't see us being much out of the 6-8 range. First 3 are set, 4/5 would take a stretch beyond Zito (I think we'd have to play Zito and all the call ups).


    1. Brown and Panik were both late first rounders, where you need to roll the dice. Early first round, where we got Posey is different.

    2. In the baseball draft, I think you go with the Best Player Available. If you are choosing between two approximately equal talents, the organizational depth comes into play. You have to completely ignore any individual player at the MLB level. MLB careers tend to be fleeting and even good players tend to get expensive quickly.

      My personal draft board as of right now would be 1. Rodon 2. Kolek 3. Turner 4. Gatewood 5. Toussaint 6. Gettys 7. Beede 8. Cederoth 9. Cease 10. Gordon.

      A couple of others who stood out to me at the PG All-American game were Marcus Wilson and Monte Harrison.

    3. Yes, you go with the best player available.

      You worry about your surfeit of talent later.

      You can switch them to different positions or you can trade them for what you need, hopefully prospect for prospect, not just someone for 2 months.

  3. Given the importance of the draft, and I have confidence in our experts, but still, it would not hurt to get more outside experts.

    I wonder if they go with outside consultants or if they have always done that.

    1. Everybody has an opinion. Barr has a reputation for being one of the best in the business and has a track record to back it up. I think you choose good people to do your evaluations then run with it. Too many cooks spoil the stew, as they say.

    2. That's true, though in most fields I am aware of, most smart people are good in a few areas, but not all.

      Sabean always has had a good reputation all around with Tidrow especially known for his expertise on pitching, and yet, he went and got Barr.

  4. Jack Flaherty for me - a power hitting 3B who, if necessary, could move to RF? Sign me up!

  5. Im also a big fan of Jack Flaherty! Not only can he rake if that fails he can a pretty darn good pitcher! He's pitching for Team USA currently.
    I'm cool with Kolek too. Gatewood though may be too projectable and this a gamble for my taste


    1. I haven't read that much about Flaherty. I'll check it out.

    2. I don't know. That swing looks very long and slow to me.

  6. This is how you analyze a two-way project.

    To begin with, imagine flipping a coin. If the objective is heads and team A get one shot and team B get 2 shots.

    If the percentage is 50%-50%, team's success rate is 50%.

    What about team B? It's success rate of becoming up heads at least once with 2 chances is 1 - (the rate of tails both times). In this case, 1 - (0.5 x 0.5) or 75%.

    A two-way prospect is not necessarily better odds than your normal one-way prospect.

    In the above case, a stronger prospect with 80% chance of sticking is better than a two-way prospect with 50% of failing either as a pitcher or as a position player (his chance is 75%).

    So, it all depends on the prospects under consideration.

    Just being a two-way prospect does non necessarily means he's better. He could be but not necessarily.

    1. I tend to stay away from 2-way prospects, whether it be in 2 sports or pitching + hitting in the 1 sport. I almost seems like they aren't mentally able to commit fully to one or the other and the chances of making it in both are next to nil.

    2. This is where I am with the 2-way guys as well.

    3. I agree with that additional consideration of the psychological aspect as well.

      Bottom line - option to develop as hitter or a pitcher does not necessarily add anything to how good the prospect is in either or what he will be one day.

  7. I do think Brown can redeem himself, but next year is make or break.