Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Down on the Farm: 8/14/2013

AAA  Omaha Stormchasers blanked the Fresno Grizzlies 1-0:

Chris Dominguez(1B)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .297.
Francisco Peguero(LF)- 2 for 4.  BA= .309.
Ehire Adrianza(SS)- 0 for 3, 2 BB.  BA= .306.
Yusmeiro Petit(RHP)- 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 4.85.

I know it's the PCL and all, but I am impressed that Dominguez has maintained that BA all season.  It does seem he has sacrificed some power to do it, but he wasn't hitting dingers before just because of lack of contact.  Anybody else like to see Petit get added back on the 40 man and get a couple of starts in September?

AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels edged out the Akron Aeros 4-3:

Mark Minicozzi(DH)- 2 for 4, HR(9).  BA= .320.
Drew Bowlin(RHP)- 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 3.93.
Edwin Quirarte(RHP)- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(11).  ERA= 2.72.

Quirarte has unimpressive K and BB rates, but has a GO/AO= 3.06 which is dominant groundball pitching. He has a 1.98 ERA with a GO/AO= 4.80 over his last 10 appearances.

High A  Modesto Nuts topped the San Jose Giants 2-1:

Mac Williamson(DH)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .280.
Adalberto Mejia(LHP)- 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.42.

Another solid performance by Mejia.

Low A  Augusta Greenjackets destroyed the Greenville Drive 14-1:

Travious Relaford(SS-3B-2B)- 2 for 4, 2B, 3 BB.  BA= .227.
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .254.
Chuckie Jones(RF)- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(9).  BA= .237.
Kendry Flores(RHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 2.75.
Stephen Johnson(RHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 4.20.

Chuckie Jones continues his second half surge.  Another solid start for Kendry Flores.

Short Season  Hillsboro Hops quieted the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 2-0:

Pat Young(LHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Rookie AZL  Giants were idle.

DSL  Giants shutout the D'Backs 3-0:

Gustavo and Javier had a hit each.  Nothing else to see here.


  1. I'd pass on Petit, another guy that is not in the Giants future. I wouldn't want him taking away starts from a guy like Surkamp or Kickham in the ML.I'd rather see them pitch more to see if one steps up for next year.

    Doc, I know you get excited when Chuckie Jones has a good games but I am not sure why. What do you see in him? Doesn't seem special. Just curious.

    1. I don't get excited over 1 good game from Chuckie Jones. Check out his entire second half for Augusta which is not an easy place for hitters.

    2. BTW, read an article on Fangraphs yesterday about Adam Duvall and they mentioned that the Augusta ballpark has a HR factor of .66 which means that it is almost twice as difficult to hit HR's there as the average ballpark. On top of all that, the Sally League in general tends to be a pitching friendly league. This make Chuckies July and August performance there all the more impressive.

      Does this mean Chuckie has turned a corner and is on the verge of breaking out? Too soon to tell. He's gotta move up and get it done in San Jose next year.

    3. I have a;lways been hestitant on toolsy, full of potential but limited performance guys like Chuckie and Rafael Rodriguez, especially when they show zero consistency.....JONES, it seems, is finally starting to show that consistency and is somebody to keep an eye on...

      Another nice start by PAT YOUNG, I think that makes 21 straight innings withou an ER...Likeing these Chase Johnson, Pat Yougm Snelten an Slania picks, to name a few...On the other end of the spectrum..Van der Tugg looks like he should be shut down and rested


    4. Chuckie Jones' second half is definitely encouraging. And for a young kid who came to the organization raw and out of high school, to see it clicking is somewhat exciting. And the added perspective that Doc revealed about ballpark HR factor definitely improves that outlook.


    5. Totally pass on Petit. Would love CD to get a few starts at third base. Don't know what the GMen will do in the off season, but assuming we don't go out and make major upgrades (which I don't think will happen):

      OF--Pagan and ?? I think we give Pence a 1 year deal and he goes somewhere else for more money. Roger K may be one guy. Could see a FA here, but no one from the farm system really is the answer (although I'd have Pegs be a utility guy--he won't be worse than anyone else we've got).

      IF--We have 4 solid starters... YES including Belt and NO not including Panda. Total disappointment. I don't expect him to be removed as starter, but would like to see if CD can push him. Arias is a fine utility guy too. Maybe Pill to relieve Belt, but that might be a controversy too.

      C--Please, please, please Hector pull your sh*t together.

      RP--Let's give Hembree a shot.

      SP--We will (I think) have Timmy (one year QA), Cain and MadBum. Chaudin is probably number 4. I still can't get how he went from "meh" to "wow", but he did. I just worry it is a one year wonder. I think Vogey had more track record in Japan, but Chaudin also isn't "that" old so maybe it finally clicked. If we do opt for Chaudin, I wondedr if Timmy goes to the pen. Kind of expensive, but we're going to pay him anyway and I wonder if its less of a downer if he doesn't cost us games. Maybe the loser of Timmy/Chaudin goes to the pen. Would love to see Surkamp make the squad, sine I prefer 3 Rs and 2 Ls.

      Promote the high A guys to AA, the low A guys to high A and Escobar to AAA. Need to have them in place sooner rather than later.


    6. Key offseason move - no more world baseball classics. Just focus on preparing for 2014.

      I think we got distracted this past winter/early spring.

    7. Chaudin (nice!) actually had some nice years relieving in between and good strikeout rates. It also helps to pitch in ATT half the time, plus Rags HR voodoo magic as well helps too (0.5 HR/9 this season; 1.0 career).

      For him, I will present what I said about Vogelsong's breakout year: he's been pitching quality games (per PQS) so far for us this season as a starter, and you don't luck into strikeouts so consistently, so that's true dominance. Supporting those numbers (Vogelsong was smoking in AAA) is that he has been a strikeout pitcher previously as a pitcher, you can maybe put him in the Jeff Kent category where he has exhibited certain skills that, once he gets starting time, looks pretty good in the aggregate, instead of here and there, SSS.

      Why would Timmy go in the pen? As you note, there's only 4 starters so far. Then you got Moscoso, Surkamp, Kickham (his relief appearance for Cain would have qualified as a quality start per PQS), plus whoever else the Giants can dig up from the trash heap of baseball this off-season. And I still like Petit. Plus Timmy has had 5 good starts out of 7, he's having his second half surge like he did last season. (My early betting line is Moscoso is the vet that sets the bar for the young pitchers, but Surkamp and Kickham are the main competitors for the last rotation spot among the prospects, with Escobar having an outside chance of taking the spot from them, given how well he has pitched in AA. My bet is on Kickham, though I think we'll be good with either Surkamp or Kickham in there, I just like Kickham's easy dominance so far in the majors, but Surkamp has done great as well, as the baseball cliche goes, it's a problem you love to have).

      But if Timmy is still struggling like this at the start of next season, you could see him being converted to relief at some point. At that money, he can still provide a lot of value as a reliever - assuming he relieves like he did in 2012 playoffs.

  2. Am starting to feel there might be a surprise with Chuckie Jones. When he was drafted it was said he was a project as he was very raw and usually guys who fail that bad in 2 years are released from the org. but the Giants didnt do that with him.

    1. Chuckie Jones played his first professional games at age 17. HS draftees often struggle for their first 2-3 years in the pros, especially raw talents like Jones. Organizations typically do not give up on kids like that after just 2 years!

    2. DrB brings up very good points. I would also add that another reason the Giants didn't give up on Chuckie is because he had his very good first season in Rookie league. So this is not a surprise that he's doing well now. Success like that meant that he has skills inherent to him, especially since he was very young for the league, that has not shown up as much in recent seasons, but is a matter of continually developing him so that he can consistently show those skills.

      And Jones has been doing well for a while now. He heated up starting June 11 and has hit .285/.369/.480/.850 with 7 HR in 179 AB (26 AB/HR = 25-ish HR season), though still 50 K's. He will probably advance much like Noonan, with periods where he looks really bad, like Chuckie did the first half of this season, and periods that whet our appetite, like he's doing now. But his low contact rate will be a concern as he rises, his formula for value will be similar to the classic underrated sluggers who gets a lot of walks, while striking out a lot, like Rob Deer. And even through his struggles in the past, he has always been able to pick up a lot of walks.

    3. Also, failure is all relative. His numbers look low, but you have to take the league into context.

      In 2011, while his overall batting line is low, particularly his BA, it was not that bad, especially considering his youth and that he was almost league average in OBP:

      Jones: .218/.322/.315/.636, ISO 97
      NWLSS: .255/.333/.371/.704, ISO 116

      In 2012, again, looks low, but it was above average for the league, which is very impressive for someone underaged for the league (19 vs. 21.3 avg for pitchers):

      Jones: .242/.351/.373/.724, ISO 131
      NWLSS: .249/.331/.359/.690, ISO 110

      Now, what he was doing in the first half of 2013, that was pretty bad, anytime your OPS is in the 5's or less, that's very bad. But I would venture this guess that the Giants probably had some suggestions regarding how he bats that they wanted him to work on this season. When any athlete is trying to implement a new way of doing things, it puts them in learning mode where they look like they never played the game before,and he's going to struggle mightily until it becomes muscle memory. Noonan had a similar thing happen to him with San Jose, really bad first half, but that second half, whoa, he was bringing it.

      Still, his overall line is actually good:

      Jones: .237/.324/.377/.701, 140 ISO
      SALLY: .249/.324/.366/.689, 117 ISO

      As you can see in all three batting lines, his OBP is greatly enhanced by his ability to take a lot of walks. That suggests that he has a good enough eye for the strike zone and that his big strikeout rate is related more to being very aggressive with pitches in the strike zone, swinging for the fences. Perhaps if the Giants can tame him a little, say, focusing on hammering pitches in his hot zones, that could lower his strikeouts without reducing his power that much, putting more balls into play.

    4. Augusta is home to one of baseball's hottest teams, and Chuckie is leading the charge on offense! It's good to see some production out of him. No reason he shouldn't be in San Jose next year, and you never know what can happen if a big, athletic player gets the bat going. I read the postgame writeup from David Lee last night, a 14-1 whooping. He was impressed with Rando Moreno, who came in late, but had a 2B in a couple of AB's. Sounds like he's got a confident approach at the plate to go with a good arm at short.


    5. Not much to add, but if you like Belt's slumped shoulders you're going to love Chuckie Jones reaction to strikeouts!

      Lets hope this is instruction and pitch recognition kicking in. Won't know until he continues success against upper minors. He's only 20 though! And has also been through the hype cycle, so now he's dismissed by prospect hounds. Just remember he's a premium athlete, and extremely raw. I peaked at Matt Kemp's minor league stats... Kemp was much better.

  3. It's not unusual that something clicked in a person all of the sudden.

    In math, it's called a step-function.

  4. Great comments, everybody! Best baseball discussion in the Giants blogosphere!

  5. Crick starting tomorrow in San Jose per Joe Rizzo.

  6. And Hector Sanchez of all people sends them home happy. Well, most of the Giants blogosphere happy anyways. There's power in that there bat!