Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Down on the Farm: 8/12/2013

AAA  Omaha Storm Chasers outlasted the Fresno Grizzlies 5-4 in 11 innings:

Gary Brown(CF)- 0 for 5.  BA= .228.
Ehire Adrianza(SS)- 1 for 3, 2 BB.  BA= .317.
Christian Colon(2B, Stormchasers)- 2 for 5, BB.  BA= .267.

It would appear that Gary Brown is done for this season.  He is just 2 for 31 with 1 BB over his last 9 games.  He had one 3 for 4 game on August 2 with a long cold stretch before that.  In other words, he's had 1 good game in the last month!  Former CS Fullerton teammate Christian Colon is not doing much better in the Royals organization as it looks like he has moved off SS with mediocre offense at 2B.

AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels were idle.

High A  San Jose Giants were idle.

Low A  Augusta Greenjackets were idle.

Short Season  Salem-Keizer Volcanoes came from behind to outhit the Everett Aquasox 11-10:

Tyler Hollick(CF)- 2 for 4.  BA= .285.
Jeremy Sy(SS)- 3 for 5, HR(7).  BA= .276.
Leonardo Rojas(DH)- 4 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .667.
Tyler Horan(LF)- 1 for 3, 2 2B.  BA= .287.
Blake Miller(1B-3B)- 2 for 3, SF, HBP.  BA= .342.
Nick Vander Tuig(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 13.50.
Cameron McVey(RHP)- 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.87.
Raymundo Montero(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, Save(11).  ERA= 1.88.

Does Vander Tuig have a tired arm from pitching through the College WS?

Rookie AZL  Giants dominated the Royals 8-0:

Christian Arroyo(SS)- 3 for 3, 2B, SF.  BA= .296.
Ryder Jones(3B)- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= 354.
Craig Massoni(RF)- 2 for 3, HR(2), HBP.  BA= .306.
Julio Pena(LF-CF)- 2 for 4, 3B.  BA= .240.
Johneshwy Fargas(CF)- 1 for 2, BB, SB(5).  BA= .281.
Luis Ysla(LHP)- 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's, GO/AO= 7/2.  ERA= 3.07.
Nicholas Gonzalez(LHP)- 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 0.87.

Big game for Arroyo.  For those of you wondering what happened to Ryder Jones, he's back!  Craig Massoni is raking, but should at this level.  Ysla has emerged as an intriguing name to watch in the future.  4 perfecto innings for Nick Gone.

DSL  Giants beat the White Sox 4-1:

Jean Angomas(LF)- 1 for 3, 3B, BB.  BA= .268.
Royel Astacio(1B)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB.  BA= .198.
Miguel Gomez(C)- 1 for 4, HR(2).  BA= .293.
Richard Rodriguez(2B)- 1 for 3, BB, 2 SB(5).  BA= .232.
Eusebio Encarnacion(RHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 1.80.
Jose Morel(RHP)- 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's, Save(5).  ERA= 1.53.


  1. Will anyone in Fresno this year come close to matching yesteryears Linden or Bowker?

    1. I think PILL had been doing a good job!


    2. Not sure exactly what you are getting at with this question. I think Pill, Roger K, Pegs, Noonan, Johnny Monell and lately, Adrianza have had excellent AAA seasons. Also, I'm not sure why Linden and Bowker are anything to get nostalgic about.

    3. PCL numbers don't always translate in the MLB, we have learned that.

      And many you mentioned are having good seasons.

      With those said, I am just wondering if anyone will have an MVP type season (at AAA) like Linden did, if I remember correctly...something like 20-30 HR, 100+ RBI.

    4. Pill would be having such a season if he was in AAA the whole season, even then, he's already at 79 RBI and 18 homers, and he's played slightly over half of a AAA season, so he is on pace for a, say, 30-35 HR season and 130-150 RBI season, which would match your parameters.

      FYI, Linden did have a 30 HR season but only 80 RBI in that season, he missed a lot of the AAA season. And Bowker never reached 30/100 either, or either in a single season. Pill has reached 100 RBI or close a number of times, but never 30 HR, though on pace this season, but at 28, he should be dominating if he has any talent.

  2. Apologies for the long post...just wanted to get thoughts on my predictions for next year's full season teams:

    Fresno - AAA
    Francisco Peguero - RF
    Gary Brown/Juan Perez - CF
    Jarrett Parker - LF
    Chris Dominguez - 3rd
    Ehire Adrianza - SS
    Joe Panik - 2nd
    Angel Villalona - 1st
    Andrew Susac/Johnny Monell - C

    Richmond - AA
    Mac Williamson - RF
    Ryan Lollis - CF
    Devin Harris - LF
    Adam Duvall - 3rd*
    Matt Duffy - SS
    Ryan Cavan - 2nd
    Ricky Oropesa, 1st
    Jeff Arnold/Tyler LaTorre - C

    San Jose - A+
    Chuckie Jones - RF
    Jesus Galindo - CF
    Shawn Payne/Rafael Rodriguez - LF
    Mitchell Delfino - 3rd
    Kelby Tomlinson - SS
    Trevor Brown - 2nd
    Joseph Rapp - 1st
    Drew Stiner/Ty Ross - C

    Augusta - A
    Shilo McCall - RF
    Tyler Hollick - CF
    Tyler Horan/Brian Ragira - LF
    Blake Miller - 3rd
    Brandon Bednar - SS
    Ryan Jones - 2nd
    Same Eberle - 1st
    Leonardo Rojas/Eugene Escalante - C

    * Adam Duvall repeating AA because there isn't a spot in Fresno.

    1. Not too bad!

      If anything, it's Perez/Parker in LF, they are going to start Brown full-time CF. Duvall might get promoted to AAA and Dominguez pushed to AA, but yeah, I see your point, not that there is no spot, Dominguez has not done that well, but more Duvall has not done enough to get promoted, though he's pretty hot now, and if he can continue for the rest of the season - since his poor performance could have been related to his injury - that's hot enough to earn a promotion.

      I don't know the lower levels as well, particularly position players, but I don't see how you don't have Christian Arroyo starting at SS for Augusta, he's been doing well in the Rookie League and he's their #1 draft pick. Bednar will have to fit in someplace else. Sy has also been having a nice short-season himself, but not sure where he goes either since he's SS too. Oh, Ryder Jones is a 3B, so I don't see the Giants suddenly moving him to 2B at Augusta.

    2. Peguero will be graduating; he does not have any more options.

    3. Didn't realize that Keiser, thx.

  3. @OGC

    I actually think Dominguez has done really well especially in cutting his K% down and playing pretty decently at 3rd. Overall, I think Duvall has done enough to make the jump, but if there isn't a spot for him in Fresno, a 2nd year at Richmond wouldn't be the worst thing.

    There aren't too many teenagers starting in the Sally, so I'm not sure it makes sense to start Arroyo there (19 next year). I think it makes more sense to start him in SK, then give him a bump to Augusta if warranted. And I was referring to Ryan Jones, 13th rounder out of Michigan St. in 2012 and not Ryder Jones, our 2nd rounder this year.

    1. I will be surprised if Arroyo and Ryder Jones are not in Augusta come April. I will admit the Giants seem to have become more conservative in their promotions in the last few years, so maybe not.

    2. OK, sorry, don't know all the prospects names, assumed you misspelled, my apology.

      There aren't too many teenagers starting in the Sally, but given that the two are out high draft picks, that's why I think they will be placed here, particularly since both are hitting well in rookie league. The average pitcher there is 20.3 YO, and Jones is 19 YO already and Arroyo is doing OK and he's 18 YO. The average pitcher in the Sally is 21.7, and both will be a year older next year, so that's is basically the same difference in age. I would be very suprised if the Giants don't put the two of them in Augusta in April.

      I don't see what you are seeing with Dominguez. He's striking out 23% of the time, which is just about the same as last season (94/409 vs. 97/375, so improvement but his contact rate is still only 75% and that'll only get worse in the majors). To strike out at that rate, he'll need to hit 25-30 HR in the majors and he only has 13 in AAA, which works out to about 20+ HR season. Add to that, he don't get many walks, so he'll need to have a very high BABIP to maintain the high BA he has this season, and his career numbers is .266/.308/.429/.737.

      While Duvall isn't killing it either in AA, Schierholtz had similar numbers there and was promoted, so maybe he will get the bump to AAA, as Dominguez isn't doing any thing to say he deserves to stay in AAA over Duvall. Given all the spots Dominguez has played in this season, Duvall might get the starting 3B job in AAA but Dominguez might play a starting utility role in 2014 in AAA, starting in other positions a lot. Or maybe Chris'll play 1B instead of Pill and Linden, I would think Pill would either make the team or be traded by next season, isn't he out of options too?

  4. DrB/OGC - I'd love to see Arroyo and Jones in Augusta next year, but as stated, the Giants tend to be very conservative especially with their high schoolers, so I don't see it happening. Hope it does happen, but I wouldn't count on it.

    As for Dominguez/Duvall, I like them both and specifically hope they promote Duvall to Fresno. I just think they'll want to get both as many PAs as possible and that won't happen if they're both on the same team. Since Duvall is about 2 years younger and they have a little more time to develop him than they do Mingo (who has improved his K%, OPS and BB% over last year), I think CD gets the nod at 3rd for Fresno to start the season.

    1. Culberson, Noonan and Fairley, the last HS position players drafted in the first 2 rounds by the Giants all played for Augusta their first full pro season. Maybe that progression has been altered since then, but there is that precedent.

    2. I was thinking the same thing, DrB, but I was thinking pitchers: I guess that shows how badly under the weather I'm in right now...

      I think the difference is what I was alluding to above, high picks vs. later picks. Here are the picks from 1st on, and what league they ended up in the season after their draft, their first full season they could participate in:

      Crick (19): SALLY first full season
      Wheeler (20): SALLY first full season
      Bumgarner (18): SALLY first full season
      Alderson (19): CAL first full season
      Fairley (21): SALLY first full season
      Noonan (19): SALLY first full season
      Culberson (19): SALLY first full season
      Whitaker (19): SS first full season
      Cain (18): SALLY first full season
      Boof (19): SALLY first full season
      Williams (18): CAL first full season
      Torcato (19): CAL first full season
      McDowell (19): CAL first full season
      Jones (19): CAL first full season
      Joseph (18): SALLY first full season
      Thomas (19): SALLY first full season
      Tanner (19): SALLY first full season
      Hannaman (19): SS first full season
      Graham (21): SS first full season
      English (18): RK first full season
      Jones (18): SS first full season
      Musgrave (20): SALLY first full season
      Farley (19): SS first full season
      Benusa (20): RK first full season, but he actually missed his first full season
      McCall (19): SS first full season
      Yacco (19): SALLY first full season, but he actually missed his first full season
      Jackson (19): was DFA before his first full season
      Diaz (18): RK first full season (DFA after that season)
      Blackburn (19): SALLY first full season

      Wow, thought I'll end with their best success with HS after first round. Though with the bonus he got, he was more in the 6-9 round range.

      Basically, after the first round (including supplementals), the Giants stop drafting HS players for the most part. So 2013 is a huge anomally with all the HS players drafted beyond the first round.

      Most of the early round picks normally starts out in SALLY, but once they got to the fourth round, then they started placing them in SS or lower, but that's really SSS, since they didn't really draft any HS with any regularity past the first round anyway. 12 high schoolers, 3 SALLY, rest SS or lower.

      So the history of drafting and placement in the Sabean era is that high drafted HS players get placed in SALLY first full season, but in the first year or two of his tenure, Sabean was aggressively placing them in CAL, before switching to mostly SALLY (Jones to Williams; then only Alderson). But after the fourth round (not that there were that many in rounds 2-4), the majority gets placed in SS or lower.

    3. The crucial thing to remember about Dominguez vs. Duvall is that Dominguez is no longer prospect hound worthy, he'll be 27 next year and he's never done much of anything in the minors.

      Whereas the clock is ticking hard for Duvall, he's 24 YO already and still in AA and doing OK but not great (stats really need to stand out, particularly in the upper levels), and he'll be 25 next season, and if he's got any hope of making an impact in the majors for the Giants, he needs to be in AAA at age 25, and hopefully majors by 26, or his prospect hopes will turn into a pumpkin too.

      Not that older prospects can't figure it out late and contribute, or better start, but the odds are tremendously against them doing it for the team that they started out, it is very much up or out once they reach a certain age, typically.

      If Duvall was a year or two younger, I can see the Giants giving Dominguez preference to see how he does first, but Duvall's clock is ringing almost as loud, so I expect the Giants to place him in AAA, then figure out what to do about Dominguez.

      I have read somewhere that Duvall might end up at 1B at some point anyway, so the Giants could always keep Dominguez at 3B and shift Duvall to 1B in 2014 AAA. But I expect them to keep Duvall's value higher by keeping him at 3B and shifting Dominguez, who's looking more to be an organizational player, to 1B, in preparation for him being more of a utility player and maybe contributing that way inthe majors.