Before we get started there is an interesting audio interview, Michael Urban with Brian Sabean on CSN Bay Area. Listen and draw your own conclusions. My take? Don't be shocked at a blockbuster trade involving a pitcher.
With Freddy Sanchez and whoever is going to back him up, the Giants are relatively set at the MLB level. Freddy likely won't be around in 2013, so the Giants need to be thinking about who might take his place as the Giants 2B of the future, or whether they will continue to sign mid-market stopgaps to play the position. Let's take a look:
AAA
Brock Bond 5'11", 185 lbs, B-S, T-R, BD: 9/11/1985. .246/.338/.333. Bond only played in 19 games before suffering a concussion and missed the rest of the season. Brock has been a favorite of Giants prospect watchers for some time due to his high BA's and ability to draw walks and get on base. The rap on him is he's a bad fielder with limited range and a weak arm.
Conor Gillaspie 6'1", 195 lbs, B-L, T-R, BD: 7/18/1987. .297/.389/.453, 11 HR. I don't think Gillaspie played one inning at 2B, but he took some grounders there while up with the MLB club. He's out of options, so the Giants have to find a MLB role for him or else expose him to waivers thanks to the de-facto MLB contract they agreed to after he was drafted in 2008. His offensive game is more suited to 2B, but having seen him play 3B, it's hard for me to imagine him being even passable at 2B. He may be a tweener in the he may not quite well enough to be a third baseman but might not be able to field the position at 2B.
AA
Charlie Culberson 6'1", 200 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/10/1989. .259/.293/.382, 10 HR, 14 SB. This was the follow up to Culby's breakout season last year in San Jose. There were some bright spots, but also a lot of slumps. He did finish with a flourish hitting .348 over his last 10 games. Coming into his age 24 season, he could repeat AA without derailing his career, but I think he probably did well enough to earn a promotion to Fresno where he could have a second breakout.
Nick Noonan 6'0", 175 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 5/4/1989. .212/.303/.288. Played SS for Richmond this year after playing 2B for 3 years prior. The offense has to come around to project him playing any position.
HIGH A
Ryan Cavan 5'10", 180 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 6/28/1987. .270/.352/.435, 12 HR, 10 SB. .341/.438/.537 over his last 10 games. Cavan did not hit as well as Charlie Culberson did last year for SJ and he's almost a full 2 years older than Culby is now. Draws walks and has a bit of power. Should move up to AA for a major test.
LOW A
Carlos Willoughby 5' 10", 170 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 11/12/1988. .240/.341/.308, 33 SB. Willoughby played 3 years in the DSL starting in 2007. This was his first full pro season. He continued to show a knack for getting on base allowing him to use his speed. He slumped badly in the second half though. Will we see him in SJ?
SHORT SEASON
Kaohi Downing 5'11", 180 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 5/7/1986. .312/.384/.403. Downing converted from pitching this year and put up surprisingly good offensive numbers for S-K. I think he could jump over Willougby and get the bulk of PT for SJ next year.
Julio Izturis 5'11", 165 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: .209/.289/.239. Izturi finally walked off the island, but has never really done anything else. He has just developed way too slowly. I might hold out hope for him if he was a SS, but he got moved over to 2B almost immediately.
ROOKIE AZL
Cristian Paulino 5'10", 168 lbs. B-R, T-R, BD: 9/4/1991. .277/.379/.438, 10 SB in 112 AB. Paulino is listed as a 3B but I think he played some at 2B. Seems like a dynamic player with good OBP skills, a whiff of power and some speed.
Garrett Buechele 6'0", 200 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 10/23/1989. .235/.288/.350, 5 HR in 200 AB. I'm thinking Buechele is not going to hit enough to play 3B and could be moved to 2B. We'll see. Very unclear where he fits in the future.
DSL
Alberto Robles 5'11", 155 lbs. B-R, T-R, BD: 9/14/1990. .344/.459/.399, 14 SB. Nice numbers but very old for the DSL.
Randy Ortiz 5'11", 170 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 6/15/1993. .292/.396/.363, 19 SB. I'm thinking we see this kid in Arizona next summer. Gets on base and steals bases.
Here's my attempt at ranking the Giants 2B prospects:
1. Charlie Culberson
2. Ryan Cavan
3. Cristian Paulino
4. Randy Ortiz
5. Conor Gillaspie
6. Brock Bond
7. Carlos Willoughby
8. Alberto Robles
9. Nick Noonan
10. Julio Izturis
11. Garrett Buechele
Not an inspiring bunch!
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If Crawford sticks at SS, does Panik move to 2b?
ReplyDeleteHey DrB - Don't understand the rules completely but apparently Conor Gillaspie qualifies for a 4th year option exemption so they don't have to make that 25 man decision until 2013. It has something to do with the small number of games he's been with the big club in the 2 seasons he got called up. That would explain their casual approach to him.
ReplyDeleteI see you're saving Adam Duvall for 3B.
We seem to have a lot of tweeners between Conor G, Paulino, Buechele, Conor G and maybe Duvall.
Culberson improved his D some, but was still tied with Chris Dominguez for most errors at Richmond (13) Those 2007 draft guys are running out of time (Noonan, Culberson and Bond all drafted together)
With the black hole we have at 2B, I think Panik needs to be mentioned and slipped into the #1 slot even though he is currently a SS and the org appears to be trying to keep him there. The fact is, not counting Panik, we have 2 MLB level prospects at SS and none at 2B. That will likely end up being the decider on his future.
ReplyDeleteSabean: "we're really going to have to get creative to spread money throughout the roster" or something close to that. Impossible to see how that shakes out. I think he's doing a Savvy Sabes bait to get teams offering on the starters for sure. The Yankee rumors will come fast and furious this hot stove - Montero, those 2 pitchers, Swisher for Cain/Timmy. Forget about any J. Sanchez pipedreams, it'll be for the aces. I agree its time to entertain the thought of losing Cain or Timmy, as unappealing as that is.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 35-45MM Timmy is going to earn in the next two years, against a hard 125MM budget, you can see the play. Personally I think Cain is more important long term to the Giants, and its always been my fear that the marketing department would undervalue him in favor of Timmy and/or (gulp) Brian BlackOps Wilson. If they trade either pitcher, they had better get the mother lode of prospects and major league ready players otherwise the outrage will kill attendance and most likely the jobs of all our venerable greybeards of the Brain Trust. But you are right DrB, as fans it'd be wise to prepare for a blockbuster.
Yes, given the lackluster list of 2B prospects, if Crawford can establish himself at SS and if Culby doesn't grab 2B, then it would seem like Panik is the guy at 2B. Still, I think they should keep Panik at SS as long as possible.
ReplyDeleteCount another vote for Panik here. While he'd probably make a decent SS, I am one that believes the glove is the most important aspect of the position...thus Crawford. I keep waiting for them to play together in the AFL, yet have been disappointed so far...what gives?
ReplyDeleteShankbone,
ReplyDeleteThe Yankee rumors are always there but they are not realistic. By "those 2 pitchers" do you mean Betances and Banuelos? I highly doubt the Giants would trade our 2 best starters at once. Don't get me wrong, I am one of the biggest Lincecum supporters, but you have to listen to all trade suggestions. I don't think anyone should be "untouchable". No matter what I think we should keep Cain. He is the longest tenured Giant and he is a grinder. He is tough as nails and will get you a quality start almost every game. I do not think Lincecum will be with us in 3-4 years although I hope he is. We just don't have the resources to keep everyone together once Posey, Bumgarner, Sandoval are all looking for long term deals. If we can get a huge return for Lincecum before he is a free agent, then we have to listen. It would be a shame to see him go for a few draft picks who may never be anything.
DrB,
What if Lincecum keeps to his word and only wants a 1 year deal in 2013 and the team is out of contention in June, do you move him? What if (this is a BIG if) a team like the Yankees offered a top prospect like Manny Banuelos and another few lesser known prospects, do you trade him even if there is a small chance he would sign back with us in free agency? That is a tough call but I think the answer is yes. I think there is a shelf life on quality starters and if you get the chance to get younger and have an extra 15-20 million to spend in other areas you have to do it. I wish would could trade Lincecum straight up for a young inexpensive pitcher like Ivan Nova but here is the catch: YOU HAVE TO TAKE ZITO TOO! That would be great.
I like the idea of tying Lincecum with Zito, but that probably only works with NYY or BOS. Much like the Boston trade with Florida to get Beckett, Marlins stuck them with 3B Lowell also, and still got Hanley Ramirez and others.
ReplyDeleteBut it is not like Zito is not a serviceable pitcher, he is just not worth the money he is being paid.
Still, even then, I would want Montero and Betances, as well as Banuelos, Lincecum is a once in a lifetime pitcher (at least that is how I would sell him) who still have two years of lower arbitration salary, unless they want to guarantee that we get a useful major leaguer out of the bunch. Boston sent two good prospects, Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, in the deal, plus two minor prospects. I was hoping for something akin to the Dan Haren deal for Lincecum, but if we can dump Zito on someone, I would be willing to take that chance, though this would leave us very low on MLB pitching, are either of Benuelos or Betances ready for the majors? If so, they can battle for last spot, as we would still have Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Vogelsong, plus probably invite some other starters to compete for #5 spot.
Boston, not sure who I would want from them, Iglesias for sure, but not sure they have the arms equal to Yanks.
OGC,
ReplyDeleteIf we could still have Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Vogelsong, and an invite plus be about $40 million lighter in payroll to sign whoever we wanted, that would be the best case scenario. It would never happen because nobody would want Zito, but we could dream though. The only thing to ruin this dream would be to sign another guy for 7 years who won't be worth the roster spot. But, like you said, getting Montero and 2 top pitching prospects for Lincecum would be worth it. Those players will not be arbitration elgible for years and we would save about $20 million a year going formward. Sounds good to me.
Yankees revenues are so large, they can view Lincecum's and Zito's combined salary as paying full value for Lincecum's services. They love to get the best players, how about selling CC and Lincecum atop their rotation?
ReplyDeleteAnd it is not like the other pitchers are that good. Burnett and Hughes had ERAs higher than Zito's 2009 and 2010, and basically what Zito did in 2007 and 2008. And are they relying on Colon and Garcia again?
They have to win now, A-Rod's getting older, Jeter is near the end of the line, Rivera too. The young guys aren't ready to help push them over the top, but Lincecum is.
CC, Lincecum, Burnett, Nova, and Zito/Hughes battle it out. Heck, they can trade Zito back to us and pay most of his salary, I wouldn't mind having him around to battle for the #5 spot.
Ideally, I prefer keeping Lincecum, but if he's not willing to sign now for at least two years plus team option, if not four years in total, then we need to trade him. Two draft picks is not acceptable return for his talent, he has to commit to us into his free agents years now, or Sabean should start discretely shopping him around.
Something smells funny in San Fran. I am referring to the Giants picking up the option on Affeldt and a two year contract for Lopez which is double what he made this yeat. This fan thinks it may have to do with Wilson's health. Maybe he does need surgery. Tommy John? I hope not but if he did have to have TJ surgery, would we tender him a contract? Something just feels weird when you spend over $9 million on 2 relievers. There was speculation we would buy out Affeldt and try to renegotiate. These moves seem pretty desperate. What do you guys think?
ReplyDeleteI don't think this has anything to do with Wilson at all. Neither Affeldt nor Lopez would be the closer if Wilson is hurt anyway. It has everything to do with there being essentially no LH relievers on the FA market. It's simply a matter of supply and demand at a position that Sabes has always made a priority. Full discussion in the next post.
ReplyDeleteRoger - I should have put "or" instead of a /, no way both Timmy and Cain are getting traded. I did indeed mean the pitchers you listed for the Yanks, and I agree that Yankee rumors are always going to be there. And I agree you have to listen to trade proposals. Matt Cain is my favorite Giant, and to me he is the guy you have to lock up because he is the defacto Captain and a horse of a pitcher. I love Timmy, but his non-commit to any buy out scares me. And I do agree it would make sense to get something more solid than 2 unproven draft picks.
ReplyDeleteI love the concept of trading Zito OGC, but I think at this point he might just be done. I totally agree with what they should look for if they trade Lincecum, and what they should expect from him as far as a commitment. If he's not willing to meet that, then some really hard choices are going to have to be made.