The Giants organization is thin at the shortstop position, but before you go into a Panik over it, you have to understand that the shortstop position is a vast wasteland all across baseball. Increased understanding of how to measure defense and its relative importance to winning games is creating a premium on prospects who can play shortstop with plus defense, and they are few and far between.
Looking to the future, the Giants are actually in relatively good shape with one young SS possibly ready to take over the position as a full time player and several other intriguing prospects in the pipeline. Let's take a closer look:
MLB/AAA
Brandon Crawford B-L, T-R. 6'2",215 lbs. BD: 1/21/1987. MLB: .204/.288/.296. Brandon Crawford was once considered an elite prospect coming of a terrific sophomore season at UCLA. He's had his ups and downs at the plate since then, but everybody agrees he can play the position on defense. He's a bit big and stocky for a shortstop, but his range is above average, with great balance and a cannon arm.
Injuries in his pro career have cut into his development time. Prior to 2011, his highest level was AA where he struggled on offense and had his season end early due to a hand injury. He was slated to start the season in AA or AAA but a spring training injury put him back in San Jose on a rehab assignment before he got rushed to the majors. In 66 games with the SF Giants, he won over a lot of fans with solid defense, but predictably struggled at the plate despite a seemingly good approach. The defensive metric UZR likes his D enough that he accumulated a Fangraphs WAR of 0.5 while playing 507 innings in the majors despite obviously negative offensive production. That projects to a WAR of approximately 1.3 over the course of a full season. His bat came to life a bit in September with a .256/.333/.419 line in 43 AB's.
Brandon is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to get more AB's. The Giants front office brass is evaluating whether to put their faith in him as the starting SS in 2012 or to go after an established SS by FA or trade. Based on the analysis in my last post Scouting the Shortstops, I think the Giants need to either go with Crawford or go all in for Jose Reyes. For what it's worth, MARCEL, a projection system developed by sabermetrician Tom Tango, projects an offensive slash line of .237/.311/.354 for Crawford in 2012. Combined with his plus defense, that should push his projected WAR over a full season into the mid 2's which is worth about $10 M on the open market while Crawford stands to make the MLB minimum salary of under $500 K.
AA
Nick Noonan B-L, T-R, 6'0", 175 lbs. BD: 5/4/1989. .212/.303/.288. Noonan was drafted as a shortstop in the 2007 draft(#32 overall). He split time with Charlie Culberson at the position in his first full season with Augusta, but moved to 2B by the time the season was over. He has struggled mightily with the bat since then and the Giants moved him back to SS for the 2011 season. He was once again overmatched at the plate I have not seen scouting reports of his defense at SS. After an injury, he came back in San Jose and played mostly 3B in deference to Ehire Adrianza. STILL too early to call Noonan a bust, but his future is very cloudy at this point. If Crawford is the starting SS for the Giants and if Noonan's D is deemed adequate, he should probably start the season in Fresno to see if the hitter friendly PCL can revive his bat a bit.
High A
Ehire Adrianza B-S, T-R. 6'0", 170 lbs. BD: 8/21/1989. Low A .231/.315/.378. High A .300/.375/.470. Yet another Giants farmhand who started the season on the DL. With no disrespect to Brandon Crawford, Adrianza might have the best SS glove in the organization. He is blessed with great range and sure handedness. Crawford may have a stronger arm. The question with Adrianza is whether he will ever have the bat to play in the majors. It came around during his second stint with San Jose but will he get overwhelmed in AA? At age 22, he's still has some development time but it's starting to run short.
Carter Jurica B-R, T-R. 5'11", 185 lbs. BD: 9/23/1988. High A .250/.355/.383. I saw Jurica play early in 2011 for San Jose. There was nothing that stood out about him. He does not look at all rangy in the field and he is very non-descript physically. He looks like he's going to have to make it as an offense first SS, and the offense hasn't really been there. The position is thin enought in the organization that he'll probably have some place to play, but I'd consider him an organizational player at this point.
Low A
Ydwin Villegas B-R, T-R. 5'10", 180 lbs. BD: 9/1/1990. 3 levels .190/.216/.239. Villegas is a gifted fielder but was once again overwhelmed at the plate by professional pitchers at every level. He played AAA and Rookie Ball, but played the most games for Augusta. He did hit .263 over his last 10 games so maybe there is still some hope.
Robert Haney B-L, T-R. 6'1", 165 lbs. BD: 8/16/1988. Low A .236/.317/.308 in 66 games. High A .244/.340/.293 in 14 games. Don't know much about Haney, but he appears to have some plate discipline but virtually no power. Drafted in round 22 in 2010.
Short Season
Joe Panik B-L, T-R. 6'1", 193 lbs. BD: 10/30/1990. .341/.401/.467, 6 HR, 13 SB, 5 CS in 270 AB. Panik was the Giants first round draft pick in 2011. He signed almost immediately and was able to get in a full short season. He was the NWL batting champion and played exclusively shortstop. The big question with Panik is whether he will stick at SS. The Giants say he can. Other scouts are divided. He was sent to he Arizona Fall League as a second baseman, but that may have had more to do with position availability than a desire to have him switch positions. Ultimately, his future as a shortstop may depend more on whether Brandon Crawford can establish himself at the position or whether the Giant splurge in a FA SS such as Jose Reyes. I expect to see Panik playing for San Jose next season and playing shortstop there.
John Eshleman B-S, T-R. 6'0", 185 lbs. BD: 4/8/1989. .221/.264/.268 Drafted in round #11 in 2009, this was Eshleman's 3'rd professional season. Much as I would like to see a kid from Yucaipa, CA make it, I don't see it happening here.
Rookie AZL
Kelby Tomlinson B-R, T-R. 6'2", 180 lbs. BD: 6/16/1990. .357/.417/.543, 11 SB, 2 CS. 12'th round draft pick in 2011 out of Texas Tech. Scouting report says he's a steady defender at short with a patient approach at the plate. Speed is his only plus tool. Can't get too excited by his numbers in the AZL as a guy drafted out of a major D1 conference has no business playing there. I like Tomlinson though, and expect to see his name in the Augusta box scores next year.
Jean Delgado B-R, T-R, 5'11", 150 lbs. BD: 2/5/1993. .225/.385/.310. Delgado was drafted in round 8 in 2011, the highest of a contingent of 4 Puerto Rican high schoolers. He seems to be patient at the plate. His scouting report says he takes a big hack with solid bat speed and good barrel awareness whatever all that means. His arm may force him to move to 2B. Obviously a project., but good to see the Giants drafting a few of those.
2011 Draftees
Christian Otero The Giants loaded up on shortstops in the 2011 draft. Otero is another Puerto Rican high schooler drafted in round 18. Scouting report says he has a better chance to stay at shortstop long term than Delgado.
Trayvious Relaford Drafted out of JC ball in round 44. He is the cousin of former MLB'er Desi Relaford. Has the tools to stay at SS, but is very raw in all phases of the game.
DSL
Shurendell Mujica B-R, T-R, 6'1", 158 lbs., 3/22/1991. .221/.361/.313, 24 SB, 13 CS. 20 yo is old for the DSL. Iike his combination of OBP and SB's but his CS rate is way too high for the DSL. Outlook: cloudy.
Rando Moreno B-R, T-R, 5' 11", BD: 6/6/1992. .222/.355/.265, 5 SB, 7 CS. Not much to recommend him that I can see.
Richard Rodriguez B-R, T-R, 6'1", 170 lbs. BD: 10/3/1992. .121/.261/.121. Eeek! Well, he was the youngest of the 3 players listed as shortstops on the DSL Giants stat page. That's about all you can say here.
Here's a stab at ranking the Giants shortstop prospects. A lot obviously depends on whether Panik sticks at the position.
1. Brandon Crawford/Joe Panik.
3. Ehire Adrianza
4. Ydwin Villegas
5. Kelby Tomlinson
6. Christian Otero
7. Nick Noonan
8. Carter Jurica
9. Trayvious Relaford
10. Jean Delgado
11. Robert Haney.
12. Shurendell Mujica
I'm calling it a tie for #1. Crawford has big league experience and there is no question he can field the position. If he can grab the position by the throat in 2012 he could force Panik to move to 2B down the road, so in a sense, Crawford may control his own fate as well as Panik's. The guy who gets there first tends to have the advantage. On the other hand, the Giants have a lot invested in Panik as a first round draft choice, and he did have a terrific first professional season. Adrianza is a distant 3'rd. I'm putting Villegas #4 based on his reputation as a superior fielder of the position which is a relatively rare trait.
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I am pretty excited about Joe Panik although I think long term he will be a 2B. Could be a good replacement for Sanchez if his stats in higher levels are anything like his NWL stats. It is nice when a Giant at any level wins a batting title. I really don't think any of the prospects past #4 have a shot but things may change. Adrianza appears like he could make a run if he hits like he did towards the end of the season. He hit 24 doubles, 3 triples, and 3 homers in 56 games at San Jose. Now I know this is the PCL but it is still impressive.
ReplyDeleteI love how you go over the free agents, then over the prospects at that position, DrB!
ReplyDeleteMARCEL, FYI, is designed to be a very simple projection system, weighing most recent performance over past, and limited to, I believe, 3 seasons worth of performance. So simple, even a monkey can do it (Marcel is the name of the monkey on Friends).
Not sure how it deals with minor league stats, last I recall, it did not incorporate MLEs, which the one on Fangraphs does, ZIPS.
I think you hit the nail on the head, as usual. Crawford is up first, what he does will domino to the others. And yes, Panik is starting at 2B in AFL because Crawford is starting at SS for the team.
I still have hopes for Noonan as a major leaguer because he's still very young (23 next year) and he did great for half a season for SJ, but hopes for him being a good starter has faded, I think average is tops now. I can see him and Culberson splitting 2B/SS in AAA if Crawford is in majors, else he is probably playing 2B with Ehire at SS in AA.
Panik, I think the Giants will keep at SS all the way up until he is almost ready to make the majors, at which point he might start seeing 2B if Crawford or anyone else is entrenched at SS. That would keep his trade value up higher along the way, and you never know what might happen to the incumbent SS, collisions do happen at 2B in double plays. SJ announcer published BA's notes on Giants prospects and there was nothing noted about his defense, so I assume it is not terribly good or bad, just good enough, which is their description for him, "not flashy but he can do a little bit of everything". As a hitter, sounds a lot like a left-handed Gary Brown: gap to gap, line drive power.
Ehire I also still have hopes for. He just turned 22 so 2011 was his 21 YO season, and Advanced A is the right level for still good prospects progression. His struggles offensively should be leavened by fact that he is kind of young for the leagues until this season, and yet he both took a good percentage of walks as well as didn't strike out that much. Plus, he is physically developing, his ISO was a nice 165 in SJ, which will help. This is around the age that Sandoval, who also was able to avoid strikeouts well as youngster (only better), started showing his power as well.
I was intrigued by Tomlinson, but don't know much about him. Look forward to seeing what he can do in 2012.
DrB, assuming Crawford is the Giants starting SS in 2012, which level do you think the Giants will place all the above SS? I guess that could be the third post you can create for each position!
Aloha Drb, Thanks for the great rundown on the SS position, can't find this type of analysis anywhere else, which is why I keep coming back! I think good defensive shortstops always have a chance to make it. I'm hoping Crawford shows enough with the bat in the AFL so he can be the starting SS with the G's in 2012. Sounds like Panik is thier best all around SS prospect.. I've always been intrigued by Adrianza ever since reading about Omar Vizquel raving about his defense.. I also like that the Giants loaded up on SS in the 2011 draft because its such an important position and you could find future 2nd or 3rd baseman from these players if they can't stick at SS..
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading, everybody!
ReplyDeleteIf Crawford starts the year in SF, Fresno will either have Nick Noonan or a minor league FA such as Edgar Gonzalez. Emmanuel Burris could move back to SS in a pinch. Sharlon Schoop may be a sleeper to start there.
Adrianza to AA, Panik to San Jose. Augusta would have Villegas again plus Kelby Tomlinson. Jurica will be a backup somewhere.
Hey Dr. B. Not to be a spoil sport or rain on anybody's parade, but I'm kind of wondering about what these projections are really all about. I can sense that, yes, Crawford's defense can certainly make up for the offensive learning curve. However, I'm very curious of the value of any system that state's that Crawford's value on the open market is $10 million.
ReplyDeleteI could be way off base, but if Brandon hit the open market today there might be a run of teams who would offer him a 3 year deal in the market of 5 or 6 million over that span of time, averaging to maybe a few mill a year. So, for a projection to put his open market value at $10 million seems to degrade any value that system might have for actual baseball.
I'd love a reaction or some filler information as to what I may be missing. There are a lot of useful sabermetric systems out there, but this might not be one of them...
Nick
I did not say that Brandon Crawford is worth $10 M on the open market. What I said was that IF he maintains the same level of defense, and IF he to make a modest improvement in his offense as projected by Marcel, THEN his WAR for next year would be about what a team would normally pay about $10 M on the open market for. That's NOT the same thing as saying he is worth $10 M on the open market right now.
ReplyDeleteGreat blog by the way...really enjoy the posts. It should be an eventful off-season to say the least.
ReplyDeleteIf we're looking to make a real move to upgrade the offense let's think big...I think we need table-setters. Let's make a move for Elvis Andrus. The Rangers Profar is a year, maybe two away and certainly don't need more offense. If they lose CJ WIlson to Free Agency they're down their #1 starter and a lefty. So here's the move (fingers crossed of course).
Move Sanchez, Crawford, Peguero and Surkamp if need be. Andrus is under control through 2014 and Arb eligble next season I believe. Lock in Sanchez to a reasonable deal while he's cheap, 3 Years, $20 Mil. The Rangers best hitters are coming up to FA within the next couple seasons and will be expensive. A cheap Sanchez might be enticing. Rangers get Crawford as a Def. replacement and can bat him 9th. Peguero and Surkamp as potential Big Leaguers down the line.
And we get a solid, fast young SS to set the table for our boys. I dream of Brown, Andrus, Pablo, Posey, Belt, Panik down the line.
M
Mully,
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of Andrus but I don't believe he will be available for what you offered. Even if he was they would want Brown and/or Bumgarner in the deal which hopefully we would turn. Why would they trade their cheap starting SS when they probably in a few days will make it to their second WS in two years. I am sure if they want to cut payroll they will start with Young.
With SS being a position in the NL that unless you are Tulo, you probably are not hitting the cover off of the ball. So why spend money in that area. I would rather put it into the bullpen or a power hitting corner infielder or outfielder.
I agree with trying to get Sanchez into a 2-3 year deal that is affordable. I have faith that his walk rate will go down. His other stuff at times is unhittable. His head is just not there yet. He would be one of the best 5th starters out there. Let's get realistic with Zito. It isn't going to turn around. Even if one of our starters were out for the year, I would rather go with Vogelsong or Surkamp. We should just release him or trade him for a low level prospect and pay most or all of the contract. The absence of him will actually be better for the locker room because there won't be any Zito related questions.
Just having Posey and Sanchez back for the year I think we will do better than last year barring that we do not have 18 people on the DL. I think Sabean will get us one good player but it won't be a blockbuster. We will count on our pitching to make up for our offense woes. I think Cain will get a decent extension and Lincecum will get a 2 year deal.
I don't believe the Ranger will trade Andrus until Profar is ready to take over which won't be for another 2-3 years.
ReplyDeleteMarcel looks at three years of MLB data. When a player doesn't have three years (like Crawford) it uses the league mean for those missing years, and give them a 0.00% projection likelihood. So for roooks like Crawford it pushes their numbers towards league average, while saying "don't trust these numbers."
ReplyDeleteFrom http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/
FAQ: "But, what about a player who's never played MLB? Where's his forecast?" That's simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel's official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.
Unfortunately, I think SS is naturally a position that lends itself to overpayment and the Giants are a prime example of why - when you trust a guy like Miguel Tejada right handed hitters avg jumps on you. Honestly, I think if the Giants acquire another solid bat for the middle of the lineup from an OF or the 1B position, Crawford batting 8th and continuing his development is fine by me. I just think his defense and a .240 avg is better than overpaying for a guy who will hit .280 and play subpar D.
ReplyDeleteAll projections have their limitations and the smaller the sample size, the more limited. It's not like their projecting Crawford to hit .280 with 20 HR's or something like that. It really is a modest forecast. It will be interesting to see what Zips et al project him as.
ReplyDeleteMy main point wasn't that Crawford is going to hit any given slash line. My point is that with his defense contributing to his value, he doesn't really have to set the world on fire offensively to become a very valuable commodity.
Hello Dr. B and Thank-you for all your hard work in this awesome blog- I think it's the only blog out there I actually pay attention to!
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I'm up here in Vancouver, BC and I've seen Panik play a few times this year when SK came up to play the Canadians. My really untrained eye saw a guy that, at times, was stellar and at others, airmail a ball into the seats behind the first baseman... Nothing caught my eye about his arm strength which may be a bad thing...He certainly has that line drive type of bat... Most of all though, and this was clearly above the rest of the team (both for that matter), he had a very professional poise about him. You could really see determination and a hard work ethic all over him. Now with that said, the competition at this level is at times just above Little League (sarcasm of course) so spotting someone who is even slightly professional may be easy, but there was no doubt he was the one to watch out of either team on the field.
The opposite of poise, from what I saw at least, was Chuckie Jones though he certainly “looks” like a ball player. You could clearly see frustration and attitude in few at-bats I saw, which he did nothing in.
And yes, Galindo is fast and can cover some ground out in center. As soon as he was on base, you pretty much knew he was going, almost to the point of him seeming a bit jumpy. In any case, he's ready to run!
BTW, Crawford is 9 for 25 in AFL so far.
ReplyDeleteYes, small sample size of course. But still much better than 5 for 25 :)
Thanks Anon,
ReplyDeleteYes, Crawford is hitting well so far in the AFL. May not prove he's ready to hit MLB pitching, but it's a lot better than if he was doing poorly.
Thanks for the eyewitness stuff on the S-K prospects.
I am kind of sad that Sharlon Schoop has totally disappeared from your short-stop depth chart. It's like the end of an era;-)
ReplyDeleteWill he play in Fresno next year ?
Thanks for the hard work DrB
GIP
Schoop actually played some games at shortstop this year. Man, he ain't young anymore! Best looking player in a baseball uniform I've ever seen. If success in baseball was based on how well you wear the uniform, Schoop would be an All-Star in MLB by now.
ReplyDelete