As we saw in the previous post, centerfield is a position of scarcity in MLB. Finding undervalued commodities is a good management strategy for MLB GM's, but another, perhaps even smarter strategy, is to scout, draft and develop your own scarce, and thus possibly overvalued, commodities. With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to look at the Giants centerfield prospect depth chart. Everybody knows about Gary Brown, but are their other CF prospects down on the farm? We'll first review them by level and then rank them by value as prospects:
AAA
Tyler Graham: B-R, T-R, BD: 1/25/1984. .273/.337/.338, 60 SB, 12 CS. Graham is fairly old for a prospect, even one in AAA. He was drafted in the 19'th round out of Oregon State in 2006. Despite an inconsistent minor league career, he has progressed fairly steadily through the system. Clearly has the speed to play CF and steal bases. The red flag is the .273 BA in the PCL which is so hitter friendly. You have to wonder if he can break .220 in the majors. K and BB ratios are not encouraging either.
Justin Christian: B-R, T-R, BD: 4/3/1980. AA .256/.328/.359, 18 SB, 2 CS. AAA .338/.428/.574, 36 SB, 3 CS. MLB .255/.286/362, 3 SB, 2 CS. Christian is more of a reclamation project than a prospect. At one point a few years ago he was told by none other than the esteemed Dr James Andrews that he would probably never play baseball again due to a torn up shoulder. Tore up the PCL in a half season there. His numbers at AA are probably more indicative of his projected MLB performance. I was impressed by the little I saw of him in the majors and could think of worse things than if he was the Giants 5'th OF next year or even the RH part of a CF platoon with Andres Torres. Sabes correctly called him an extra OF, though. Played all 3 OF positions in the minors.
AA
Francisco Peguero: B-R, T-R, BD: 6/1/1988. High A .324/.387/.441, 4 SB, 0 CS. AA .309/.318/.446, 6 3B, 5 HR, 8 SB, 1 CS. Here's a guy I'm not sure why doesn't get more attention. He missed the first part of the year with injury and didn't have enough AB's to qualify for the EL batting title where he would have tied for 6'th in the league. He has actually played more RF than CF in the last 2 years even though he is listed as a CF. He did not steal as many bases this year, but increased his success rate a lot, so he's perhaps being more selective about when he runs. He is allergic to walks so isn't an ideal leadoff hitter. He does have a bit of XBH pop, and I actually see him projecting more as a slashing #3 hitter. Should start out in Fresno next year and I think he's going to tear up the PCL. If the Giants start the season with Andres Torres in CF, we could see Pegs in the majors by mid-May of next year.
Juan Perez: B-R, T-R, BD: 11/13/1986. .256/.303/.381, 22 SB, 6 CS, 10 3B, 4 HR. Perez has been a bit of a white whale for a lot of Giants prospect watchers ever since he was drafted out of Western Oklahoma JC where he was a 30-30 guy in 2008. He had a promising season for San Jose in 2010 but predictably struggled in the Eastern League. Still, .256 is not terrible for that league. He's played CF at the expense of Peguero the last 2 years so I would deduce that he's a superior defensive CF.
Darren Ford: B-R, T-R, BD: 10/1/1985. 3 MILB stops .265/.340/.370, 18 SB, 4 CS. MLB .286/.375/.286, 7 SB, 5 CS. Not sure what level to assign Ford or whether to classify him as a prospect. He's best known for his blazing speed and a couple of mad dashes around the diamond, one of which may well have been the difference between winning the World Series in 2010 and not even making the playoffs. Bruce Bochy has seemed intrigued by the idea of using him as a pinch-running specialist, but several CS's at the end of this season may have cooled that notion. He's always had pretty good walk rates and part of me would like to see what would happen if they just put him in CF and let him lead off for 600 PA's. You wouldn't do that with a contending team though.
High A
Gary Brown: B-R, T-R, BD: 9/28/1988. .336/.407/.519, 34 2B, 13 3B, 14 HR, 53 SB, 19 CS. Brown is definitely the alpha dog among Giants CF prospects. 2010 first round draft pick our of CS Fullerton after a sensational college career. He hit .336 with gap-to-gap extra-base power in his first full pro season for SJ despite a terrible slump in the month of June when he hit just .202. That tells you something about how well he hit in the other months of the season! Concerns about his strike zone judgement and ability to take walks were allayed by an IsoOBP of .071 which is pretty darn good, especially for a leadoff hitter. The two blemishes are the June slump and the relatively high CS rate. The slump may be a blessing in disguise as it forced him to struggle and adjust which he will have to do at some point in the majors. On defense, he not only has the speed to go get it in CF, he showed an ability ring up OF assists to boot. His overall package seems tailor made for AT&t and the other west coast ballparks. Brown is the most likely Giants CF of the future by a wide margin.
Jarrett Parker: B-L, T-L, BD: 1/1/1989. .253/.360/.397, 25 2B, 13 HR, 20 SB, 5 CS. Parker played mostly RF in his first pro season for SJ, with occasional outings in CF when Brown got a rest. He was a CF in college though and could probably play the position as pro if the Giants CF picture wasn't so crowded. Parker had his ups and downs in SJ but showed some promise. He has excellent plate discipline which may contribute to a high K rate due to taking too many called strikes. I saw him unleash a throw from RF that was every bit as strong as anything I've seen Nate do. He has a tall, lanky frame that makes him look a bit awkward at the plate. He is obviously going to take longer to develop than Brown, but may have more upside, especially as a power hitter.
Low A
Chris Lofton: B-L, T-R, BD: 3/20/1990. .237/.323/.292, 22 SG, 14 CS. At one point, Lofton had his BA all the way up into the high .290's, but slumped terribly in the month of August harming his overall stat line. He may have just worn down in his first pro season, but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets passed by Shawn Payne and Mike Merganthaler on the organizational CF depth chart.
Short Season
Jesus Galindo: B-S, T-R, BD: 8/23/1990. .276/.353/.364, 47 SB, 8 CS. I gotta tell you, I am so darn excited about this kid I can hardly stand it. He has all the ingredients to be the quintessential CF/Leadoff batter. Switch hitter, check. Draws walks, check. Blazing speed and runs with no conscience, check. I like my speed guys to hit LH or at least switch-hit. They are a step closer to 1B from the LH batters box. BA ranked him the 9'th best prospect in the NWL. His manager, Tom Trebelhorn compared him to Rickey Henderson. His hitting, especially from the left side was suspect coming into this season, but he showed tremendous improvement. The hit tool will make or break him because all of the other tools are there, well, except power, but who needs that if you have a .360 OBP and steal bases in bunches? One of the great sleepers in the Giants system. Don't think he'll stay asleep for long.
Shawn Payne: B-R, T-R, BD: 7/13/1989. .306/.431/.394, 21 SB, 6 CS. Between Joe Panik and Galindo, Payne got a bit lost in the shuffle in S-K, but he had a fine, fine pro debut. In the BA chat, it came out that he just missed the top 20 prospects list for the NWL. I'm really looking forward to his first full pro season. Will he again fight with Galindo for PT in CF or will he leapfrog over Lofton and be the starting CF for San Jose?
Rookie AZL
Mike Mergenthaler- B-L, T-L, BD: 1/6/1989. .388/.476/.592. Merganthaler was drafted out of Richmond and is too old for the AZL, so take the numbers with a grain of salt. A guy who is 6'4" 210 lb and can play CF is worth paying some attention to theough. It will be interesting to see where he gets assigned and what position he plays in 2012.
Kentrell Hill- B-R, T-R, BD: 10/27/1990. .256/.316/.360. Numbers not too exciting but he finished strong with a .320/.393/.520 line over his last 10 games. Scouting reports say he might be the best athlete in the entire system but is a bit of a project.
There were no standout CF prospects in the DSL this year.
That's a rundown of the Giants CF prospects by level. Here's a stab at a ranking in terms of prospect status based on a combination of ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling as well as likelihood of staying in CF:
1. Gary Brown- by a wide margin.
2. Francisco Peguero
3. Jesus Galindo
4. Jarrett Parker
5. Shawn Payne
6. Kentrell Hill
7. Chris Lofton
8. Juan Perez
9. Mike Merganthaler
10.Justin Christian
11. Tyler Graham
BTW, BA released it's EL top 20 yesterday. Eric Surkamp was #11 and Peguero was #14. In the chat, they said Hembree was just outside the top 20.
Scottsdale Scorpions had their first AFL game postponed.
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I like the ceiling of Brown, Peguero, and Galindo but I cannot see them all being SF Giants. I believe Brown could be the CF of the future and a decent leadoff hitter. Obviously if we were to sign Reyes (which I am not counting on) in the offseason he probably would hit later in the lineup. This all depends on 2012 and how he does in AA and/or AAA. Peguero and Galindo are interesting but we are starting to accumulate lots of outfielders with not a lot of power. Eventually it would be nice to have an outfielder who could hit over 20 homers. I don't think any one of these 3 could do that.
ReplyDeleteI am excited to see if Hembree can keep doing well at higher levels. He may just be Wilson's competition in 2013. I think Surkamp might have a bright future as a solid #2 or #3. His strikeouts are not carrying over to the MLB so far and he needs some seasoning. With Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner in the mix Surkamp could be an excellent #4 pitcher. Not many teams can say that.
I think Parker has more power potential and there are some OF's who project more as corner OF's who project for more power such as Chuckie Jones and Leonardo Fuentes. They are very raw and have a long way to go though.
ReplyDeleteDoc, have you heard/read anything definitive on Torres' medical condition? Is he likely to recover for next year? Any prognosis? any plans for him for the Winter?
ReplyDeleteAllfrank
I haven't read anything on the Torres front.
ReplyDeleteFollow up to Roger,
I don't expect all 3 of Brown, Galindo and Pegs to stick with the Giants but it's nice to have depth in the system at a position of scarcity.
While it would be nice to have an OF who hits 20 HR's, it would also be nice and interesting to have 3 OF's who were all superior defenders, and all hit .300+ with approximately 35 2B, 10 3B, 15 HR and 40 SB's.
DrB,
ReplyDeleteI would take consistency, speed and gap power over strikeouts and homers. I just don't think all 3 will pan out. Maybe only Brown translates well to the MLB. Maybe it is Peguero. I am just thinking of how a power hitter makes the whole lineup better by forcing the opposing pitching to throw better pitches to other hitters to avoid pitching to the power guy. We haven't had a guy like that sibce Bonds. Bonds was probably the most feared batter in history. His intentional walk rate proved that. Now, people like Bonds are few and far between, I hope we can find a guy that can strike a little fear for the long ball. No matter how good Posey and Sandoval are, they scare nobody. We could use one more bat that is a constant threat. We all agree Baer is not going to sign Pujols or Fielder. Those two would be a great match except for the position they play and the health factors going forward. Maybe Tommy Joseph or Adam Duvall could be that player we need. Maybe Chris Dominguez. Somehow we need a guy who is a threat to score some runs. The stat I heard about 21 of Timmy's 33 starts resulting in 2 or less runs is ridiculous. We need runs bad or our pitching won't want to stick around.
Hey Doc, I've been enjoying your blog for quite a while now and wanted to say you are doing a great job. I know you watch the minors very closely but are you going to be watching the AFL and other winter ball?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to the AFL for the first time this year and excited to seeing a couple of these guys I've been reading about in person. I'm wondering if Brown looks even half way as impressive in person as his stat sheet.
Fresno can be stacked next year if Sabean follows through on his tough guy talk. Belt, Crawford, Hector Sanchez, Surkamp to go with Frankie Peggs. Culberson and Dominguez might not make the jump, but if the Giants want the trade chip getting Chris D's stats inflated might be a good idea. And if Brown doesn't go to AA and ends up a Grizzlie as well? Even money says Hembree is there also. Stacked.
ReplyDeleteFelipe Alou called Peguero the best hitter the Giants have. Don't think he got the follow up question about Brain Dead Caribbean Hackers though. If he could even get the walk rate to 5% he'd be much higher rated.
Both Galindo and Payne look very interesting. I loved the draft pick of Kentrell Hill this year.
Great rundown on the team's CF depth. Learned a lot of great stuff, looking forward to you doing the same for all the other positions (you will cover closers and also relievers too, right?)
ReplyDeleteYeah, don't know the others as well, but yeah, Brown has to be the top by a landslide. FYI, his poor SB/CS was early in the season when he ran wild. Later, once he got more selective, he was around 80% success, which is not bad, that is, if he can continue to develop and do that in the majors (how do you view catcher's defense in minors vs. majors, given the importance of defense there, is there not as much of a jump in talent rising one level to the next?
Also, Brown really caught totally on fire his last three months in minors, as well as improved his BB and K numbers.
Really loved him pre-season, now even love him even more.
I wouldn't mind seeing an outfield that can hit like you noted with great defense and speed. I think that kind of offense would be more consistent in delivering the 4 runs our pitchers need to win most games, and more importantly, avoiding the 0, 1, 2 run games.
I noticed your references to Galindo during the season, I will definitely be checking out his name. Payne also looks interesting. Think he might get put a level ahead of Galindo since he is a year older?
Peguero looks like he has more of a bat who could play a corner OF with that, whereas Juan Perez at best, offensively, is a CF. Agree that he could be up by mid-2012 if CF is a mess again like 2011.
I was thinking Brown could end up in AAA, though with a poor AFL, he would end up in AA. I guess Peguero is AAA no matter what, but CF if no Brown, RF if Brown? I recall someone (BA?) saying that Peguero plays good D in CF. They also like his power/speed combo, which supports why Giants play him in RF even though he could play CF (I think they compared him with Vlad; oy, another Sandoval type in our lineup?)
The odds of 3 of any position in any farm system making the majors and sticking is probably astronomically high. I think Brown looks more like when than if now. Peguero, though, is looking like he might make it too. I like the way he is able to avoid strikeouts in the minors at each level, much like Pablo (and Vlad), just not as good as either, but league average would be great.
If we had a lineup of 15+ homer guys plus Posey, Sandoval, Belt in the middle, that would be good enough power-wise I think.
Our lineup will be much better once Posey returns to the middle of our lineup. Why is that a hard concept for fans to accept that an average-ish offense as the Giants had in 2010 would falter when their clean-up hitter is missing? And not only missing, but replaced by a pretty lousy hitter in Whiteside and Stewart?
As always, thanks for the comments everybody. Not sure if I will do depth charts for all postions. We'll take em as they come. Like I said at the end of the season, I'll post what and when the spirit moves me until January when I post my Giants Top 50 Prospects and then run down a scouting report in each one until Spring training.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Bonds was pretty much of a once in a lifetlme player. I've been blessed to be a fan of the Giants during the careers of both Willie Mays and Barry Bonds. How great is that anyway?
I keep looking for the guy who's going to be the masher in the middle too. So far I can't say I see him. Leo Fuentes? Ricky Oropesa? Can always keep hoping and looking!
Brian,
ReplyDeleteCan't say Brown looks like an imposing physical specimen, but he carries himself like he knows he's good, but not in a cocky or arrogent way. His speed on the basepaths is the most impressive thing to observe.
Dr.B., I am surprised that you did not not bring up RafRod, whil etalking about power hitting OF, nor when you were talking about smashers. Are you losing hope, or just forgot him?
ReplyDeleteYeah, Rafrod is out there too. Haven't given up on him yet.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking about power hitters, is anyone curious on how Angel Villalona will do in Dominican Winter ball? I read an article recently that he has lost some weight and is in playing condition. I expect nothing from him due to his legal issues so anything productive is a plus.
ReplyDeleteDrB,
Hopefully if you do any other positions, SS is next. I think SS is our biggest hole. We have good defense waiting in Crawford and Adrianza but not the greatest hitters.
SS will be next.
ReplyDeleteMay take a few days to put it together though.
ReplyDeleteUpdate on St. Louis, news of the latest pitching coach Dave Duncan for an overview of the depth chart in center field.
ReplyDeleteDoc,
ReplyDeleteThis info is extremely insightful. Thanks a lot.
But something I've been wondering about Peguero is whether his knee injury affected his speed at all. His SB numbers and attempts were down significantly. Were you able to see if he was simply being selective or whether he's actually lost some of his speed and maybe in the process of regaining it. Was this apparent in the outfield? Sometimes numbers dont tell the whole story, so I'm wondering if you had a look at him at all.
Overall, I'm excited for how he'll do this next season and whether those power numbers will continue to go up.
BA's scouting report indicated the knee was not 100% when he started playing. It seemed to get better as the season went along. They did say that he had an excellent season considering the knee wasn't 100%
ReplyDelete