Before we get started, I'll just mention that Shankbone has some interesting ideas in the most recent Fanpost, Fighting the Middle Market over on McCovey Chronicles. Check it out!
Although Brian Sabean specifically identified CF as the position of need where the Giants lack in-house options, they aren't exactly flush with corner outfielders either. With Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Mark DeRosa and Carlos Beltran hitting the free agent market and Gamer released before the season was over, the Giants are left with just one established MLB corner Oufielder on the roster, Nate Schierholtz. Sabes has proclaimed that Nate will be the starting RF next year, which is probably the Kiss of Death for poor Nate. Anyway, LF could be manned by either Huff or Belt, but Huff was terrible in the OF in 2011 and the Giants appear to be considering sending Belt to the minors to start the season. Let's scout the options.
RE-SIGN FREE AGENTS
Carlos Beltran- Beltran did exactly what the Giants wanted him to do when they traded Zack Wheeler for him at the trade deadline. It's just that the timing was all off. Beltran went into a slump and then was injured right after he was acquired and right in the middle of the toughest part of the Giants schedule. Now, anyone who knows anything about baseball statistics knows anything can happen in a small sample size, but a lot of fans blame Beltran for the tailspin that knocked the Giants out of the NL West Division race. On top of that, Beltran's cool demeaner was taken, rightly or wrongly, as a lack of caring and hustle. Some fans also objected to him taking the starting RF job away from Nate even though Nate's injury made it a non-factor for the most part. Now that he's a free agent, Beltran possesses the best OF bat on the market. If the Giants can afford to sign him for not more than 3 years and still keep their staring pitching intact, by all means, they should sign him. An alignment of Beltran in LF with Nate in RF would seem to be preferable to the other way around, but when you're talking about a bat like Betran's and an offense as pathetic as the Giants without him, I don't think it's worth quibbling over. Nate is a better RF, but it's not like Beltran is terrible.
Cody Ross- Ross is clearly hoping for a long term deal. I doubt he's going to find one on the open market. I hope the Giants haven't burned their bridges with him. He can play CF and with the sorry state of the CF market, he might be a good value on no more than a 2 year deal. The Giants are clearly hoping next year's CF is a leadoff hitter, and Ross does not steal many bases, but he does get on base and sees a lot of pitches. I'm not sure a single leadoff hitter who steals bases really adds that much to an offense anyway.
Pat Burrell- Pat the Bat could come back on another 1 year low $$$ deal if he and the Giants are convinced his heel is OK. Otherwise, he'll retire. Maybe $500K with incentives? I doubt he'll be brought back as the starter in LF though.
Mark DeRosa- In a similar situation as Burrell. The talk is that he'll sign a minor league deal with ATL or Houston to be closer to his home. I could see a $500 K deal with incentives working for the Giants. He'd be coming back strictly as a utility/bat off the bench , not the starting LF.
FREE AGENTS
Josh Willingham 33 yo- Hard to believe a guy who hit 29 HR's with an OPS Of .810 in Oakland had a WAR of just 2.1, but Willingham is a terrible fielder, even for LF, which is a double negative. Willingham has been believed to be undervalued for so long, he'll likely be overvalued this offseason due to the dingers. I'm with Shankbone on this one. The Giants should stay away. He'll cost a first round draft pick to boot.
Juan Rivera 33 yo- Rivera has had 2 good seasons in his career and ha never played more than 138 games in a season, averaging less than 100. He seemed to help the Dodgers offense gel after his mid-season acquisition. It's hard to imagine Ned Colletti not grossly overpaying to keep him. the Giants should show just enough interest to drive the price up!
Juan Pierre 34 yo- Here's a guy who's been believed to be overvalued for so long, he may well be undervalued now. He's coming off a down season. Was it just a down season or is he starting on a steep decline in his career trajectory? If the Giants are looking to get seriously faster on the basepaths, they might consider bringing in Pierre to play LF on a 1 year discount to see if he can rebuild his value, while also bringing in a Coco Crisp to play CF, or even bringing back a Torres/Christian platoon. Another possibility would be to bring in DeJesus to play CF with Pierre in LF to handle the leadoff duties.
Laynce Nix 31 yo- Had a nice season for the Nats and could probably be had for not too much. Do you really want this guy to be your starting LF though? I would think Belt is at least as good an option right now to day nothing of the future.
Ryan Ludwick 33 yo- Here's a guy who was undervalued for so long he became overvalued, and now has been overvalued for so long he might be undervalued again. Would probably hit a bit better in SF than SD. One year deal to rebuild his value?
Raul Ibanez 40 yo- A Brian Sabean Special if there ever was one! I could so see Sabes signing him to a 2 year deal. It might be worth it just to see MCC melt down to a puddle of orange and black goo if it were to happen!
Conor Jackson 30 yo- Conor Jackson had an OPS of .822 for the D'Backs in 2008, and appeared to be a budding star. He contracted Valley Fever and has never fully recovered. Still, gotta be intrigued by the upside here. He could be a Sabean "lightning in a bottle" special in a cheap 1 year deal or even a minor league ST invite.
Jonny Gomes 31 yo- Gomes has been the darling of the Saber crowd for a long time due to his relatively high OBP's and SLG% compared to his BA's. He's been a terrible fielder most of his career, but actually had a + UZR in 2011. That is likely a sample size fluke though. Another potential bargain bin pickup.
Johnny Damon 37 yo- Damon hit 16 HR's and had 19 SB's for the Rays last year. Knows how to get on base. Might want to finish his career in the AL and on teh east coast though.
Michael Cuddyer 33 yo- Solid hitter who can play multiple positions if necessary. Sabes was rumored to be pursuing him at the trade deadline. The only problem with signing him as a FA is it will likely take an overpay and he will cost a first round pick.
David DeJesus 32 yo- Yikes! 32 yo? How time flies! Another player Sabes has pursued at the trade deadline, but in 2010. Coming off a weak season with Oakland. He can play all 3 OF positons and might sign a 1 year deal to try to rebuild his value. He'd probably prefer a more hitter friendly environment to do it in though. Doesn't hit HR's or steal bases. His value is dependent on BA/OBP and doubles power.
JD Drew 36 yo- If the fans didn't dig Beltran's style, they would hate Drew's. He will probably either re-up with Boston or retire anyway. Just don't see him coming to SF, although he is getting into Sabean Special territory age-wise.
Kosuke Fukudome 35 yo- Almost all his value is tied to his OBP, which is actually quite good. Sabean has seemed to be allergic to Japanese players since the Shinjo debacle. Still, there might be enough veteran savvy here to interest him and there is still serious marketing potential for Asian ballplayers in SF.
Brad Hawpe 33 yo- Terrible fielder who was a terror at the plate in Colorado, but his offense tanked in San Diego. Seems to be more of a first baseman now. Hard to see how he fits in SF. Has a $6 M option with a $1 M buyout that likely won't be picked up.
Jason Kubel 29 yo- Once a highly rated prospect, Kubel has never quite lived up to he perceived ceiling in Minnesota. He's a solid hitter coming off a down year with a career OPS of close to .800. Terrible fielding probably limits him to AL.
Nick Swisher 31 yo- Swish has been a fairly reliable 3.5-4 WAR player and is coming off a 3.8 WAR season for the Yankees, so his $10.25 M option should be picked up. The Yankees are almost desperate for LHP's. Would they have any interest in trading him for Jonathan Sanchez, or perish the though, part of a bigger package for Matt Cain?
POTENTIAL TRADES
Carlos Quentin 29 yo- Could be part of a housecleaning in ChiTown. Has hit 20+ HR's in 4 straight seasons, but has had trouble staying on the field due to injuries. Has never played more than 131 games in a season. Interesting option as long as the price isn't too high.
Logan Morrison 24 yo- This guy is in the doghouse with Marlins ownership big time due to his big mouth and indiscriminate use of Twitter. Not sure what the status of his grievance with the Marlins is, but that can't be helping to rebuild his relationship with his employers. He's certainly not popular with Giants fans either for some of the things he said in the wake of Buster's injury. I'm sure he would have some rough introductions in certain corners of the Giants clubhouse too. Still, baseball is a business and LoMo is a serious hitter who is cost controlled for years to come. Gotta think about it for the right price.
Andre Ethier 30 yo- Yikes! 30 yo? Time flies again! Ethier has made noises about not being thrilled with the Dodgers' situation and the feelings may be mutual. His power numbers were way off this year and he has battled nagging injuries the last 2 years. Ethier is a good player, but he seems to be more interested in building his GQ portfolio than his baseball career. He tends to start off every season red hot and progressively cools off as the season progresses which makes me think he doesn't spend a lot of time on conditioning. Still, he'd probably be an upgrade for the Giants. Doubt Agent Ned would trade him within the division even if he is Agent Ned.
Ryan Spilborghs/ Seth Smith- Colorado probably would not trade within the division and you have to be wary of anyone moving away from Coors Field as their home park anyway.
I'm sure there are a lot of other possibilities out there I'm not thinking of. Any other ideas from readers? Send in your comments!
Personally, I'd be OK with sticking Belt out there for a full season and seeing what he would put up. As much as he struggled and as much as he got jerked around last year, he still hit enough HR's to project to the high 20's over the course of a full season's worth of PA's. I think he is just a sliver away from being a monster at the plate.
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Carlos Beltran is the best option on this list. He has tremendous upside if he stays healthy, adds power to the middle of the lineup, isn't a defensive liability and won't cost a draft pick. Plus I think he could probably be a good mentor to our younger hitters such as Belt and Nate. His injury history is a problem but did we ever think Posey would miss most of the year in April? Injuries happen and he might work out fine.
ReplyDeleteI hope Sabean doesn't do something stupid and sign a short term guy like Cuddyer and lose a 1st round pick. 1st round picks have been gold to us the last several years.
I agree. If the Giants can sign Beltran and still pay their pitchers, he's the guy.
ReplyDeleteYou can point to stats that say late first round picks are highly unlikely to pan out, but Matt Cain was a late first rounder while Brown and Panik are two of the Giants most promising prospects and they were both taken late in the first round.
If you have a strong scouting staff, and the Giants seem to, late first rounders can be worth a lot.
Beltran scares me, especially with a 3-year commitment. I can't think of a better option to lift the offense without giving up prospects or a draft pick, however.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I'd rather take my chances that a Crisp or DeJesus/Christian tandem perform well enough at the top of the lineup, and someone like Kubel could provide the power we need behind Panda, Posey, and Nate.
Lucky
Aloha Drb, thanks for the great rundown of OF options. I like Beltran and Kubel, but if they don't materialize, there are other options: I'd like to see them sign Crisp for CF and preferably a RH bat for leftfield because they have no RH hitting outfielders at the moment. Ryan Ludwick might be a nice 1 yr signing.. He can play both LF/RF and he's been consistently good hitting with RISP throughout his career, .323 in 2009, .345 in 2010, .258 in 2011. I might be wrong, but I don't think he would cost a draft pick.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the shoutout Dr. B. I rambled on a bit, but these free agents just bum me out.
ReplyDeleteBeltran should be the #1 target for sure. 2/30 may not get it done, but maybe getting that third year can appeal enough to keep the AL teams out of the process. Could care less about the cool demeanor - people forget his hustle plays - he made a great grab going into the stands in RF, and a beautiful slide home (around the catcher ahem Marlins). He just has to pick him moments to hustle, he's getting old. This should be less of a problem in LF for sure, Bonds could turn it on when he really needed to until the last 1-2 seasons. Beltran has one of the best swings in the majors and the risk of injury is worth it - he is a premium talent, even on the decline its worth paying HIM over the other guys.
The trades that stick out to me are Nick Swisher if he became available - awesome durability, good OBP and power, switch hitter, can play LF/RF. He would be solid if Beltran signed with the Yanks. Dirty Sanchez is due for a bounceback season though - it is a contract year for him after all.
The other guy you brought up who is pretty fascinating is Quentin. Kenny Williams is always willing to gamble and do wacky things - Quentin is in his last year, maybe something can happen there. He is younger than Swisher, right handed so most ideal for power in PacBell, has good splits and actually hits righties better for average and power. Not as good a fielder as Swisher and yes, the injury concern. Still, Quentin would be a nice piece. Plus in a trade, you could then blow out the budget and sign Beltran, pushing Nate to 4th OF. (my scenario was trading R. Ramirez to the Mets for Angel Pagan to play center to provide Don Carlos with his leadoff option)
On the bargain bin front, local boy from Petaluma Johny Gomes could be interesting. Mashes lefties and has spazzy defense. Of course, Cody Ross might cost about the same and he has good versatile defense along with the mashing lefties. The least number of Oakland A's OFs we sign this year, the better off we will be.
It will most likely come down to the hard 125MM budget, and if thats the case, Brandon Belt would be just fine. What is the brain trust thinking about him though? There is no clarity in that situation. Thanks for the summary!
I really like the prospect of the Giants being able to have the flexibility in the lineup with Beltran and Sandoval able to hit switch for an entire season. I think one of them protecting Posey in the lineup for the entire year will work wonders.
ReplyDeleteSo, long comment short: Here's another guy jumping on the Beltran bandwagon.
This is something that I thought I would never say, but I would happy with a 1 year deal for Juan Pierre to play CF and leadoff. He would be a good stop gap until Brown can come up and maybe even learn about base running, guys moves and would be a good table setter.
ReplyDeleteI would also offer Cody Ross arbitration to be a RH CF platoon partner with Pierre. If he decides that he wants a multi year deal than you let him walk and take the draft pick.
I am not all too high on Beltran for more than 2 years and I don't think that few years is realistic with Boras running the negotiations.
CF-Pierre/Ross
2B-Sanchez
3BSandoval
C-Posey
1B-Huff
RF-Nate
LF- Belt
SS -Crawford
Ooh! I don't think Pierre can play CF anymore, if he ever could. He's a good LF but just terrible in CF.
ReplyDeleteGreat write up, as usual, Dr.B.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Pierre is a Pie Thrower extraordinaire. I'm having trouble remembering an OF with a worse arm. Yes, he still has speed. But playing him in a corner is like taking your sister to the prom.
I'm front and center with the criticism over Beltran's (perceived) cool attitude. I don't like his manner or attitude. I admit, his value is exceptional considering the option. But please, we'll regret more than two years.
The Giants need to have a plan regarding Belt in this. Belt's situation should be considered first before bringing in anyone else to play left field.
What my draft study showed is that late first round picks rarely work out, not that it is impossible for a team to do well there nor that it is impossible for a particular draft picker to do well there. Just that the odds are stacked against it.
ReplyDeleteMy old study that I did almost 10 years ago, using, admittedly, not the best stats, but it was the best stats available for free to the public at that time, found that roughly 10% of the picks from 21-30 turned out to be good players, starters who started at least 6 years worth of games plus performed at a high level.
When the odds are that low, it takes a long time to compile a lot of draft for just one team's or one GM's worth of drafts in that pick range.
Let's take a look at the Giants: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=SFG&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&
Yes, Cain is good, and Brown certainly looks like he will be a good ont, and Panik has had a nice start, though I must caution he has only done it in short season so far.
Here are draft picks during the Sabean era, in roughly that draft range, plus and minus (things have been different in the past handful plus of games, as there have been more players falling for signability issues, plus to give more data points):
Tony Torcato (19th pick, 1998)
Nate Bump (25th pick, 1998)
Arturo McDowell (29th pick, 1998)
Chris Jones (38th pick, 1998)
Jeff Urban (41st pick, 1998)
Kurt Ainsworth (24th pick, 1999)
Jerome Williams (39th pick, 1999)
Boof Bonser (21st pick, 2000)
Brad Hennessey (21st pick, 2001)
Noah Lowry (30th pick, 2001)
Todd Linden (41st pick, 2001)
Matt Cain (25th pick, 2002)
David Aarsdma (22nd pick, 2003)
Craig Whitaker (34th pick, 2003)
Tim Alderson (22nd pick, 2007)
Wendell Fairley (29th pick, 2007)
Nick Noonan (32nd pick, 2007)
Conor Gillaspie (38th pick, 2008)
Gary Brown (24th pick, 2010)
Joseph Panik (29th pick, 2011)
Could also throw out Jackson Williams (43rd pick, 2007).
Out of 18 picks (from 19th to 39th, as proxy for the 21-30 pick range), only 1 Cain, has proven to be good, though Brown looks like it is a matter of time, and hopefully Panik will work out as well. For specifically the 21-30 range, there has only been 12 picks and again with just the one proven success in Cain.
Now, we Giants fans know that Sabean has not been the sole architect of the draft during his era, and that it was Tidrow for the most part until recent years when Barr took over. Looking at the numbers, look like Tidrow was not much better or worse than random (assuming random is 10%), with only Cain to show for his efforts, while Barr looks pretty good so far with Brown and Panik as his picks in his first tries at the draft.
I have not really discussed this anywhere else yet, but it has been my gut feeling for a while that the odds are good that Barr is better than average in picking, based on success (relatively so far) of the Brown and Panik picks. Along with signing up our young players for the long term, I also think the Giants should give Barr a nice long term extension of some sort as well.
A "cheap Michael Cuddyer" option: Kelly Johnson. Type B FA, coming off a 1/6MM contract where he won't get a ton of money thrown at him, maybe a 2/12 that Sabean seems fond of lately. Played LF in 2005 for Atl. Lefty batter with power, lots of strikeouts, that would give you Freddy Sanchez insurance. Downsides would be low BA possibly off a cliff, PacBell factors for lefties, and his D in LF might not be great.
ReplyDeleteGreat point about our draft picks in the 20s panning out. You have to be in it to win it. Don't like giving up the picks for anybody outside the elite tier of FA.
We have to have a 25-30 HR guy in LF. Not an option to throw Juan Pierre/David Dejesus or any other noodle arm singles hitter there. If we have to give up the pick for Willingham/Cuddyer, even as a last resort, you still have to do it. We cannot afford to have LF not be a power threat.
Nice list OGC - interesting that Sabean has flipped so many of those guys:
ReplyDeleteBump in the Livan trade
Ainsworth in the Ponson trade
Williams and Aardsma in the LaTroy Hawkins trade
Boof Bonser in the AJ trade
Alderson in the Freddy trade
So six of the 18 have been traded for major leaguers as further major league usefulness (and some notoriety)
1998 and 2007 were both big in terms of # of picks. 1998 was a complete bust, 2007 had MadBum so its already a winner and the jury is still out on the others.
Also, the gap between 2003 and 2007:
2004 is the infamous Michael Tucker year (Martinez-Esteve in the 2nd, John Bowker in the 3rd)
2005 was sign crappy vets year (Benitez, Visquel and Metheny all cost us picks). (First pick Ben Copeland in the 4th)
2006 was Timmy! And Manny Burriss with the 33rd pick (think you missed him - not sure where he would fit in)
The combination of concentrating on the draft with Tidrow and the addition of Barr is paying big dividends. Keep them draft picks!
Shankbone -
ReplyDeleteGood comments, but I take exception to saying Vizquel was a crappy/costly vet. In his late 30's he was easily the best defensive MI the Giants have had in more than a decade as well as perhaps the greatest single clubhouse presence in all of baseball. He will be a HOF with a limited batting resume because of his incredible D and his likeability among those who will vote for him.
Anon - You are dead right, love Omar and he shouldn't be lumped in with Benitez. He was the first FA signed that year, Cleveland had declined his option and said he was unlikely to be back. Signing him early forfeited the draft pick, because Cleveland obviously offered arbitration once he was signed. 2005 was the best draft year in 2 decades, and so I had to throw the crappy vet reference out of saltiness. Visquel was a great giant for sure.
ReplyDeleteOGC will argue correctly that the Giants front office wasn't budgeting for draft picks so Sabean punted them, and I will argue back that you have to do both at the same time to be successful, not spending money on your farm is crazy. You gotta be in the draft to have a chance to win the draft.
For more illustrative examples of this phenomenon, look at some of the drafts before Sabean took over, as those are now pretty much concluded as to who is good or not.
ReplyDeleteI'm working on a new study and I am now using WAR as my talent and performance measurement, as that is now available via Baseball-Reference.com now. For that, they rate 2+ WAR season to be a starter, 5+ WAR for an All-Star season. I decided on 3 WAR to be my defined good season (2 is basically defined by the methodology to be the average ballplayer, and fans are not interested in the draft because of average players, they want good players) and an important point of my original study is that he has to have gotten into his free agent years, which I covered back then by number of games played, but now I'm counting 6 seasons worth of 3 WAR season, for 18.0 WAR total for good players.
Here, I will note my subjectiveness in coming up with that dividing line. I tried a number of different formulas, but it really came down to me taking all the draft picks in my new study, and sorting them from high to zero, then looking at the names, see how my gut felt about calling that player or another player good.
Ultimately, my Giants fan side led me to go with 18.0 because if I went any lower (and I tried both 2.0 and 2.5 WAR), that would have defined Dave Kingman as a good player, and I just could not go with that definition. Maybe someone can dissuade me of this, but I strongly feel that he was not a good player, a type of performer that a fan like any of us would want to get in the draft to be our good player. And he was my favorite player when I was starting out as a baseball and Giants fan.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?year_ID=1996&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
ReplyDeleteIn 1996, none of the picks 21-30 had WAR 18+. Casting a wider net, none of the picks from 11 to 39 had WAR that high, Milton Bradley at 40th pick and 18.1 WAR was the next one. Then everyone missed out on Jimmy Rollins at 46th pick overall (34.3 WAR and counting).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=1&year_ID=1995&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
In 1995, again, nobody 21-30, Roy Halladay at 17th (60.6 WAR) and Jarrod Washburn (26.1 WAR) at 31st, but besides them, everybody else from 10 to 48 were under (Carlos Beltran at 49th, 61.0 WAR). That was a funny draft, Halladay and Beltran were both each better than any of the picks made 1 to 10 that year, though just barely as Todd Helton at 8th has 60.2 WAR. Still, they total by themselves more WAR than the first three picks combined (Darin Erstad 27.8, Ben Davis 2.9, Jose Cruz 22.0 for 52.7 total WAR). And with years to go, could cover all the way up to 7th (total so far is 79.8 WAR, with only Kerry Wood, 4th pick, still active with 25.2 WAR, making the hump to get to 7th as the other guys were nothing much to talk about)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=1&year_ID=1994&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
In 1994, again, nobody in 21-30 range were good, and only one (Troy Glaus 37th, 34.5 WAR) from 15 to 139 were good (Javier Vazquez 140th, 40.6 WAR).
It was actually a pretty sad draft. Remember the above where Erstad at 27.6 was dwarfed by much later picks? He towers over the first 11 picks in this draft, combined. Nomar Garciaparra was the top pick of the first 140 picks with 42.6 WAR, and he was picked 12th.
Now, I'm not sure that the probability for the 21-30 range is still 10% given my new metric I'm using, but hopefully the examples above show how barren talent is for a broad range of picks, not just the back third of the first round, where the playoff contending teams fall into, but forward and back as well. Once you get out of the first 5-10 picks overall (depending on the draft), it is extremely hard to find a good player with the draft.
ReplyDeleteI've looked at every draft during the Sabean era and could see that, the numbers for that period supported that conclusion, and as the examples above show, was happening before him too, maybe even worse. Drafting while you are contending for the playoffs means that there is slim pickings in terms of available talent in ease of finding a good player.
It is not impossible, but as you can see from the randomness of where good players get picked, it is not really a skill exhibited by any draft picker in that time period either. If it were that easy, then prospects like Javier Vazquez wouldn't fall so far back into the draft, or even Jimmy Rollins. Or the best players wouldn't fall so far back like Halladay and Beltran, plus be that much better than any of the top 10 picks of that draft.
Hopefully these illustrates for most people how hard it is to find a good player even as soon as the back half of the FIRST round.
And it helps make DrB's point that the Giants appear to have a pretty good set of scouts (and a great scouting director in Barr, and GM in Sabean) right now, after successive picks of Brown and Panik, where both were considered overdrafts by many of the cognoscenti but now Brown is among the highest rated players in his draft year, despite being picked so far back. Not conclusive statistically yet, true, but as one can see from 1994-1996 drafts, it is extremely hard to find a good player in that range, and while Brown and Panik are not proven yet, it looks pretty good right now, particularly for Brown.
But players have flamed out by the majors before, heck, even after they made the majors (Barr's Russell Martin pick for Dodgers being a great example of a very promising prospect fizzling out in the majors before making free agency), so a lot of caution is still warranted.
Still, given the controversy over the two picks, particularly Panik, and the results so far, it is the ol' "so far, so very good".
Shankbone, I totally agree that a team must invest in the draft, never said that they shouldn't.
ReplyDeleteHowever, most Giants fans blame Sabean for that. I have been very clear that I laid the blame for that on Ownership, specifically Peter Magowan, for not dipping into that stupid and apparently useless rainy day fund and giving Sabean the financial leeway to sign the players as well as keep the draft picks.
My point, which a lot of people don't understand or don't bother to understand because of my conclusion, is that while punting a draft pick is not an ideal tactic, neither is it a move that will hurt a team greatly either.
It is all a matter of managing your business risks.
Yes, a team needs to invest in their first round picks if they want to increase their odds of finding a good player in a substantive way, but punting a first round draft pick while you are contending annually does not substantially reduce the odds of you finding a good player via the draft on an overall long-term view, as long as you don't do it more than 1 or 2 times.
If punting gives you a starting player who can produce, that is a fair trade, I think, akin to doing the similar thing of drafting a prospect then trading him for a starting player down the line. Sabean just sped up the process by a year or two, resulting in the team getting that player today rather than waiting a year to two to get the return on investment.
Yes Shankbone, Sabean had flipped many players in trades, so there is value via that route, but for me, I find that it is best to limit the draft analysis view on value to just whether the player you got is a good player or not. Whether a GM can flip someone for a useful player is a whole another matter unrelated to finding a good player via the draft, which has been my focus.
ReplyDeleteThank you for pointing out Burriss, the list was from recent to old, and I wanted to write from old to recent, so I clearly missed one of the jumps along the way. Just makes my point even better, as he does not look like he will be a good player.
And your comment is to my point above about worrying so much about picks that don't really yield much, generally. You are angry about the picks we lost for Vizquel and Metheny, but while the odds for finding a good player for the pick we lost for Benitez was around 10%, by the second and third round, it has fallen to under 5%, I think I had it around 2-4%. That roughly means that the Giants would have to draft around 25 to 50 years with their second and third round picks in order to find one good player, based on the distribution of good players in that pick range of the draft. I'm not going to worry about that small an issue.
I would liken this to those who get themselves all lathered up about the 25th man on the roster and proclaim that Sabean is an idiot for putting some loser in that position. Not really worth bothering about.
Yeah, you can't find them if you don't draft them, but it is also not that big a deal either.
In the overall scheme of things, losing that draft pick for Vizquel was totally worth it, not so much for Metheny (and really not worth it for Benitez) but overall, those years that Vizquel gave the Giants was worth more than the three picks we gave up altogether.
OGC - I should have said Ownership not Front Office, that's what I meant. Totally agree with you that Sabean should have had leeway to sign players and keep draft picks. I also agree once in a while you have to punt draft picks for players, I just have my issues with Michael Tucker and Armando Benitez. We may have to punt the pick to sign Josh Willingham or Michael Cuddyer, and I have very mixed feelings about that.
ReplyDeleteLets take a look at 2005's draft, since Shankbone pointed out how good it is.
ReplyDeleteThe way I like to test what value is available to a team at a particular pick is looking at the 10 picks after that particular pick, as representative of the talent available at that point. Any further and it really is luck finding and selecting that guy.
The Giants gave up the 70th pick to sign Methany. Cards used that to draft Josh Wilson, who never made the majors. Out of the next 10 bicks, only Yunel Escobar is doing anything, 17.4 WAR already, Kevin Slowey and Nick Hundley have been OK players, one has played some in the majors, and the other 6 have not made the majors at all.
To show how lucky a team had to be to select Yunel, he was the 27th pick of the second round. He is also clear the best prospect picked in that round, the first 11 prospects have done nothing in the majors, then there is Travis Wood and Nolan Reimond who might still turn out, plus Chase Headley.
But out of 30 picks in the round, 22 have not made the majors ever (and looking at the names, most probably won't, don't see any top prospects), another 3 had cups of coffee in the majors, then there was Wood (12th pick, 1.5 WAR), Reimond (13th pick, 2.5 WAR), Slowey (25th pick, 3.7 WAR), Headley (18th pick, 6.3 WAR), and Escobar (27th pick, 17.4 WAR).
Two things jump out to me. Slim pickings by the time you get to the second round, there was only one good player out of 30 (3% success rate). Two, it is very random where the good player is picked, heck, when even useful players are picked, and they were not even among the first 10 picks of the round.
In Round 3, Indians picked Jensen Lewis with the 22nd pick of the round, which was not bad, he has produced 2.1 WAR as a good reliever, though I doubt he will ever be rated as a good player by my definition above.
Out of the 30 picks, right now only Brett Gardner look like a cinch to be rated a good player. Next up is Brian Buensing with 4.5 WAR, then Micah Owings with 3.2 WAR. There is also Taylor Teagarden with 1.7 WAR and Jordan Schafer is at -1.1 WAR, but still some hope for him I think, by some.
There were a lot more who made the majors, 12 (meaning 18 never made the majors, and unlikely at this point), though 6 have negative WAR and another is under 1 WAR.
I would also point out that all these prospects were available to be selected in Round 2. Now some probably were dropped due to signability issues, but still, any team in the second round could have signed, say, Brett Gardner rather than the guy that they did who has not even tasted the majors yet, let alone do OK there.
After Jensen was picked, there was Schafer 5 picks later, Gardner 7 picks later.
Basically, there was roughly 1 in 30 chance of the Giants finding anybody with the picks they gave up for Metheny and Vizquel.
Looking at the pick we gave up for Benitez (and I don't recall the Elias for the other two players, so we could have lost this pick for Vizquel and Metheny if the Giants did not sign Benitez), I can see Shankbone's point.
ReplyDeleteWhile the Marlins struck out with Aaron Thompson using the Giants pick, the Red Sox picked up Jacoby Ellsbury with 23rd, Clay Buchholz with 42nd and Jed Lowrie with 45th pick, that is probably one of the best drafts I've ever seen with first round picks. Plus, the Twins got Garza with 25th, Cards got Colby Rasmus with 28th.
Still, of the 27 picks from the Giants 22 pick on, 22 of them have not done much at the major league level, tops is 1.9 WAR by Travis Buck and 2.0 by Joey Devine. The total is 42.9 WAR, for an average of 2.4 WAR per pick, but 81% of them were useless, one look to be at least useful (Lowrie) and four (15%)look to be good, barring problems (Ellsbury, Garza, Rasmus, Clay Buchholz).
There may have been a good number of players available, but it appears that they were not apparent to anyone except maybe Boston. Even they were not perfect though, selecting Craig Hansen with the 26th pick, ahead of Buchholz at 42nd and Lowrie at 45th. 15 teams had a chance at Buchholz before Boston could draft him, so they must have really though much more highly of Hansen than they did Buchholz.
Again, showing how much luck is involved in finding good players, even the team that thought highly enough of the players to draft them picked up someone who they thought was better but turned out to not even be close.
For example, the A's, some might say, had the foresight and keen talent evaluation to select Huston Street in the 2004 draft. I would say that they lucked out because he was actually their FOURTH pick of the draft up to then, they thought more of Landon Powell (24th), Richie Robnett (26th), Danny Putnam (36th), before selecting Street (40th).
Speaking of the A's, look at their picks whie they were contending, from 2001 to 2007.
Bobby Crosby (25th, 2001, 5.1 WAR)
Jeremy Bonderman (26th, 2001, 5.4 WAR)
Nick Swisher (16th, 2002, 19.6 WAR)
Joe Blanton (24th, 2002, 10.7 WAR)
Jon McCurdy (26th, 2002, no majors)
Ben Fritz (30th, 2002, no majors)
Jeremy Brown (35th, 2002, 0.0 WAR, 5 games)
Steve Obenchain (37th, 2002, no majors)
Mark Teahen (39th, 2002, -1.4 WAR)
Brad Sullivan (25th, 2003, no majors)
Brian Snyder (26th, 2003, no majors)
Landon Power (24th, 2004, 0.3 WAR)
Richie Robnett (26th, 2004, no majors)
Danny Putnam (36th, 2004, -0.5 WAR, 11 games)
Huston Street (40th, 2004, 10.7 WAR)
Cliff Pennington (21st, 2005, 5.2 WAR)
Travis Buck (36th, 2005, 1.9 WAR)
No pick in 2006
James Simmons (26th, 2007, no majors)
Sean Doolittle (41st, 2007, no majors)
Only one good player, and technically, Swisher was not picked with a 21-30 pick, he was 16th pick of 2002 draft. Out of 19 picks counted above. Some useful players, like Pennington, Blanton, Street, Crosby, and Bonderman, but only one truly good player, in Swisher.
This is not to denigrate the A's draft picks, but solely to point out that their great picks were all done while they were losing, when they had much better odds with their top picks, like Zito, Mulder, and Chavez. But even then they were not so good with later picks, Chris Enochs (11th pick of 1997), Eric DuBose (21st pick of 1997), Nathan Haynes (32nd pick of 1997).
I guess I should have worded it this way: the A's (i.e. Beane) was not as good as people said they were, at least in terms of the draft. They were right there with every other team, randomly fishing around for a good player, and on occasion, a team will snag one with a late first round pick, or later. But the A's were not more skilled than others in terms of finding talent via the draft, they look to be right there with what could be expected by random luck and chance, assuming each team groups roughly the same set of amateurs together in terms of talent level, then randomly selecting from that group.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Shankbone, I would not punt any picks for Willingham or especially Cuddyer. But nothing mixed for me, neither is really worth getting and I don't think the Giants will get either: as I've been noting around town, the Giants have been pretty good about leaving a spot open for their young talented players to win a spot. Belt is one such player, clearly and getting either of them would probably keep him in the minors in 2012.
ReplyDeleteWith Huff already at 1B (or LF, however you want to look at it), that leaves the other spot for Belt to win. Right now, he's probably competing with Torres for the LF spot, the way I see it, with RF Schierholtz's spot.
I expect a CF signing or trade of some sort. I would be OK with Crisp or DeJesus as long as it is not longer than 2 years nor more than $6M per season.
Personally, I would be OK with waiting out the market and picking up someone (like perhaps Cody Ross) on the cheap in January to play CF, but that is not Sabean's M.O., he likes to get everything on his urgent shopping list done early, so I expect to see one of the two usual suspects, Crisp or DeJesus, signed quickly. I think we can pick up OK production on the cheap in CF in January, but Sabean don't like to leave things to chance like that, he's the bird in the hand guy, totally.
If he ends up not signing anyone quickly (he can only do what the market bears), then I can see it dragging out to Dec and Jan, when players are freed up by non-tenders of arbitration or are desperate for a team just before spring training.
I'm still hoping that Beltran/Boras overplays the market, like I-Rod did in 2003, and end up with no long-term contract. Thus they have to settle for a big contract for one year, which the Giants I would hope would be willing to do to get him. That would give us Beltran, Schierholtz in the OF, plus Torres and Belt battling for the last spot, and I would guess we would see Pill getting some time in LF too. I think Beltran could see time in CF if the Giants sign him, it would depend if Torres suck again, in which case, yes, or if he hits again, which could push Beltran to LF with Torres playing CF. Hopefully Beltran can mentally handle playing LF and CF during the same season.
Way back to 2005... Actually I found some good info on your site - Biased Giants Fanatic, thats when you started blogging right?
ReplyDeleteIts fuzzy whether the same rules for arbitration and free agent comp were in place. So this post may have some major holes.
Working backwards from the 3 picks we lost, first off the catching situation: the big brew up was over Yorvit being just fine versus Matheny being a gold glove d-first catcher, and of course AJ. AJ was waived before the arb deadline. The Giants could have taken the chance of offering arb to him (and knowing what we know now about his hatred of SF...) So right there, we lost a possible draft pick.
They signed Matheny last of the 3, on or around 12/13/2004. St. Louis wanted him back, offered arb or 2/4MM. Sabean threw down 3/9MM. For losing a second round pick, this isn't that bad, especially given your analysis of the 70th pick. If Benitez/Visquel were not signed and it was a 1st round pick, it would be unacceptable though.
Visquel was the first free agent signing of the period, around 11/14/2004 give or take. Cleveland had declined his option, and hinted that no arb would be offered. Sabean gave him 3 years/12.25MM (Damn all these old contracts seem so cheap - even Neifi Perez or Marvin Bernard!). I don't think any other team would have given Visquel a 3 year deal, Sabean could have waited on this one and outbid with more money as necessary. So the issue is with the timing, not Visquel obviously. So before Matheny and Benitez, Visquel is costing us the first round pick. Ultimately he costs pick 102. Again no problem with your analysis of pick 102.
So Benitez. Well, I lived in NYC from 95-02, and my best friend is a die hard Mets fan. Saw plenty of Benitez up close. I expected him to be lazy, head casey, etc and then he went and blew all my expectations out of the water. Signed 12/2/04 for 21MM/3 years backloaded. This is the one I have major issues with. Its typical Sabean impatience. So now the Mets get our 1st round pick and the supplemental instead of the Indians. Mark Shapiro grinds his teeth.
Obviously that 22nd pick the Marlins used to pick Aaron Thompson is extremely valuable, and they missed while Jacoby Ellsbury and Cody Rasmus are still on the board, not to mention Boston darlings Buckholtz and Lowrie further down the line. Deliberately losing the 1st round pick of the draft is what I have issue with, as I agree with all your analysis of the crap shoot of all of it.
Finally, your first post was 12/10/04 so we can't see how you viewed the Benitez signing.
So while there is a 1 in 30 pick for that 3rd round Visquel pick, giving any pick to Cleveland at all was my issue. Matheny for a 1st round pick would also be an issue for me, but he was last signed. And I really have an issue with signing Benitez at all. Throw in the fact AJ could have got us another pick in the 35-45 range and I'll have to say Not Well Played, Mr. Sabean.
Hah! We were posting sort of the same thing at the same time. I meant the Marlins getting our 1st round pick for Benitez, not the Mets, just got crossed up. Obviously I am monday morning QBing on AJ and arb, Sabean just wanted to be done with him.
ReplyDeleteYour Dave Kingman line cracks me up. He hit the ball a very long way, how's that for an argument? The origin of the term light tower power.
While I'd like to share your optimism about Sabean being patient with a developing market, there isn't much history to back it up. The need for a power bat in LF is so huge, I don't see Sabean waiting. I like Dr. B's trade targets of Swisher and Quentin, and I like Beltran even more, obviously for the least # of years you can get him for. As a last resort Willingham and Cuddyer and punt the pick, as much as that sucks, we can't have the same offense as 2009 or 2011.
Belt should get the chance, but he maybe plan B across the board. 1B if Huff fails, RF if Nate gets hurt, LF if our FA signing gets hurt, sucks or fails to materialize. They have been harsh on young Brandon, and he has not produced for them. I see Sabean making a LF FA move for sure. So what can we trade to Chicago to get Quentin or NYY for Swisher? Cut him off at the pass, avoid all these middle market yahoos.
No, I agree with you that Sabean will not be patient, I'm saying that I would be patient.
ReplyDeleteI think the part you are referring to is when I wrote that Sabean could be forced by the market to be patient if things don't go his way.
Hey, as I noted, I loved Dave Kingman, I can still remember his great hitting early on before he went homer crazy, I remember him getting appendicitis and getting hospitalized (how's that for an old thought), I had so many hopes for him when he came up.
But overall, I can't call him a good player. He was a useful player, for sure, with his power, but I would not call him a good player.
I still think Beltran is the only free agent LF that the Giants would entertain getting, and only because he could possibly play CF too. They got Sandoval, Posey, and hopefully Huff and/or Belt for power in the middle. I don't prescribe the to rule of thumb that you have to have power in the corners, I plugged in the projected lineup with Crisp as the CF/leadoff and the team should score more than enough to win mid-90's in 2012.
The Giants have been pretty good about leaving a spot open for a prospect that they think is ready to compete for it, and judging by what Belt has done in the minors and majors, while he has not done enough to win it outright, I think they will want to let him compete and try to win LF spot (or 1B if they think that would ease his mind enough to focus on hitting). That means to me, they will pursue one OF free agent, who can play CF plus LF if necessary. But obviously, just my opinion.
Wow! 27 comments. That must be some sort of a record for this blog. I think the Q/A was the only one that had more.
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed reading the conversation OGC & Shank had.
ReplyDeleteOGC - I think we will just have to agree to disagree about LF and power. I maintain we cannot afford to be in the 2009 2011 boat of terrible offense, and we need big time help for this incredible pitching. Its not enough to have a full year of Panda/Posey with Huff/Pill/Belt doing the rest of the heavy lifting. With CF, SS and 2B most likely light hitting, and Nate not really being more than a 15-20 HR guy, you really need power coming from left the way the Giants are configured.
ReplyDeleteSo here I am whining about past lost draft picks and then advocating punting draft picks for the kind of middle market players I hate signing! Talk about a terrible argument. Hopefully that is the last resort, and it doesn't go there. When we are talking about Sabean being impatient I think you're referring to a cheap CF solution (Crisp/Dejesus) and I'm referring to the LF problem.
Hopefully they have a plan for Belt, but I am of the opinion they are not waiting for Spring Training to see if he is the guy. There was barely any mention of him, other than him being rushed, not being able to take failure like Crawford, not having enough ABs as Pill. I really think he's AAA bound unless he rakes in spring training, and if he does, he'd better hit from the beginning or he's back on the bench. So as I said before, plan B for Huff/Nate/LF injury or non-performance, most likely starting the year in Fresno.
Don Carlos would be great, but it might take time to develop. So yes, we are all hoping Sabean is patient, but as some guys go off the board he might just get trigger happy. Personally, all those A's OFs remind me of Randy Winn or Dave Roberts, mediocre stopgap guys who really don't add any dynamism to the squad. I'd much rather have Torres, Ross or my white whale Angel Pagan in CF because they'd be cheap and one year guys, and if we don't get Beltran, trade for Swisher or Quentin, and failing that, give Belt the job, and if you can't do that... Hello Michael Cuddyer.
I'm younger than you, my first real giants pick was Will the Thrill. I grew up in Oakland and Berkeley, but my Grandpa lived in SF and had the good sense to steer me away from AL Clownball. Even though I criticize Sabean from time to time, I have completely enjoyed his era. 1980-85 culminating in the 100 loss season was a pretty terrible way to become a fan of a team. I've said it before, we are spoiled by this awesome pitching staff, and being competitive for the most part. Its going to be a very interesting off season.
Shankbone, I don't think anybody is above criticism, including Sabean. I've not cared for some of the things he has done, particularly the free agency signings, but some (not you) just focuses on the mistakes and crucify him for what I consider to be minor offenses.
ReplyDeleteIf it were only that, I could understand their position, but as DrB and I have been noting for a long while now, the Giants are nicely set up for a long stretch of awesomeness. And Sabean orchestrated that for us.
I like how they would argue that Sabean must take responsibility for everything since he is GM, but then when we point out all the good things, they deflect it and credit Tidrow or Barr or whoever, and give Sabean none of the credit. But they forget, Sabean hired them, and it is not like he doesn't have any input, as Tidrow noted with Lincecum (and Wheeler noted with himself), Sabean does go observe top prospects and scout them himself.
Now the refrain I see often now is that he was "lucky". That 2010 was luck. I think history will prove that 2010 was not luck, it was strategy, it was design.
Any season will have all sort of elements of luck, no matter which team, whether it be health, the right player, the right performance.
But the reason the Giants have been winning the past few seasons is the pitching staff. Who put that all together? Sabean. Who kept them together when all the Naysayers were telling him to trade Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner away to get a bat? Sabean. Who built up the bullpen quickly when it was needed? Sabean. Who before the 2010 season would have thought Casilla, Lopez, Ramirez, and Mota would be key cogs of the bullpen. But Sabean got them for minimal cost. Who stuck by Wilson during his surgery (he was still recovering when he was drafted), his struggles in the minors, his struggles when he was suppose to make the team, his struggles as the closer? He could have gotten another closer to ease his load plus give the team a better option early in Wilson's career, but he didn't. We have all the ingredients for dominating the 2010's and Sabean is the person who, first, put them together, and, second, more importantly, kept them together.
Now it is up to management to man up, find the money to keep them all together for as along as possible, at least into their early 30's.
Shankbone, while age may separate us, we grew up in some similar ways. You almost parallel me, you started with the bad mid-80's as your early Giants experience, I started with the bad 70's that stretched into the 80's.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I envy your good fortune to share this with your Grandpa - growing up in the East Bay, I was one of the few Giants fans in my school, and my Dad wasn't a Giants fan, though he supported me in what he could. I never had anyone I could really talk with about the Giants or to share the love, until I could go on-line. And, not only were the Giants bad, but I started following them right when the A's had their historic World Series run, so it was tough.
I thought I was going to get that partner in crime when I got married, as my father-in-law was as big a Giants fan as I was, but unfortunately fate had other plans and he passed soon after I got married. So the internet has been a blessing to me.
I love being spoiled by this pitching staff and being competitive, that is why I've been adamant in my writing about Sabean and the Giants, and sometimes confrontational, because I remember those "lost" years of the 70's and 80's, and even the bad mid-90's just before Sabean. I know the difference, and I don't want this to end, yet all these people complain without looking at the big picture, so I worry, obsessively so, I admit, that Giants ownership might get swayed at some point to dump Sabean.
I know how life works, the squeaky wheel often gets oiled (because I was not the squeaky wheel when I was younger) , but I also know that in life, it is acknowledged that in interpreting public opinion, one must acknowledge that the unhappy will always be magnified both because they feel the need to complain and because the happy will feel less need to say they are happy.
So I didn't want Giants management to think that all fans are unhappy with Sabean and felt a duty to speak for the Giants fans who are happy. Plus, I push it sometimes because I am one of those people when there is a vote of hands, I sometimes put both of my hands up. :^)
But I'm calming down, particularly after 2010. I am not as afraid that the Giants ownership will listen to the fringe. I think history will prove that people like us here who think the Giants are only beginning a magical run of NL West dominance are correct, and those other fans will have to eat crow.
Or most probably, will say that they were supporters of Sabean all along, forgetting that in the Internet era, almost every public thing you have said can be found on-line. I had a happy experience with that once, one guy I had a nasty exchange with (which he started, but I admit I continued) made a variety of claims during that argument, but then much, much later, years later, claimed otherwise, at least until I used the Wayback Machine at archive.org to find his comment and posted it back for him to see. Shut him right up.
I also have really enjoyed reading this - and the other off-season posts. I want to take exception to Shankbone's proposition that power is required at the OF corners, even at the sacrifice of defense. 1) ATT puts a premium on defense, and with our pitching, we should be doing things to maximize our defense. 2) 'Power" is a nebulous term, in that 'power' does not mean the same thing when you factor in park differences. Cincinatti and Philly can produce 'power,' but that is a function of their small parks. We have already seen the effect of bringing in a player with 'power' from Philly (Rowand) and his 'power' almost disappering when he is forced to a) play half his games in ATT, and b) another 20 games or so in Petco and Dodger stadium. Since the West has so many big parks, even considering Colorado to be a large park, OF coverage is a bit more important than 'power,' especially when that power is going to drop because of the park effects. I do not think, for example, the 10 extra homers a Willingham may hit is going to make up for his horrid defense. When you consider cost, draft picks/lost prospects (in trades), and the realities of our budget, I would much rather have Belt in LF (and maybe even a platoon w/ Ross or Christian) because I think that lineup will win more games thru the improved defense and better OBP, even if there are 10 or so fewer homers.
ReplyDeleteAllfrank
Make some good points about Belt, and you are selling me on that point of view. You are right, they normally are more effusive about a player in the post-season conference, and they were relatively silent on him, connoting a negativeness towards him.
ReplyDeleteI just worry that Giants ownership will allow spending more on LF but then scrimp when signing our young players long-term. I would rather make them rich than some free agent from another team.
Also, from most analysis of the payroll that I've seen, the Giants don't have much spare money left over, given raises and expected raises, basically enough for that CF/leadoff hitter that Sabean said that the Giants need. So any LF would be a boost in the payroll, and I don't really see that happening except for Beltran.
I went back to the press conference transcripts, to see if anything jumps out to me now, and I agree, they were very non-committal to Belt. Looks like they will be open to someone for LF, but if nothing happens, they would be OK with having Belt as the alternative. Obviously, Beltran would probably be one of the possibilities.
It could also be like 2010, when they signed Molina knowing that they will probably trade the LF once Belt is ready (or dump Huff, whether move makes more sense at that point).
Yes, it will be an interesting off-season!
Allfrank - I'm throwing "power" up there as a broad term, I don't really like quoting WAR, OPS+, etc, it just gets bogged down, and others are better at that than me. What I mean is we need a bat, good OBP, good OPS, preferably with some sock, because the Giants are a station to station team who had success in 2010 hitting HRs late in the season. They led the league in the 2nd half actually in HRs. This year, at PacBell, our leaders were: Panda 7, Ross 6, Don Carlos 5, Nate 4 and PTB 3. 25 HRs total. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you, in an ideal world you don't sacrifice defense for hitting. I tried to bring the "Rowand Factor" up with Cuddyer, looking at his road splits which are much worse than his home splits as a warning sign. I do think we need a righty masher to take advantage of PacBell, its not nearly the hitting graveyard people make it out to be, it just plays to right handed pull hitters, something we don't really have enough of. Willingham did pretty well in Oakland which is similar to the NL west parks, but I agree he's a mess defensively so it would be a flawed pickup. You can hide bad defense at LF and 1B. Not ideal though. Throw in the draft picks, and the fact Sabean always overpays in years and money for these types, and its a bad bad deal.
The Giants haven't really been a OBP type of team since Bonds left, something that can drive people nuts. I don't think we should have an organizational wide philosophy the way the A's do though, it really hasn't brought them success. (CJ Wilson calling them Lawyerball was one of my favorite quotes of the year) I think a combination of good contact guys, patient mashers and first pitch hackers is just fine. But lately there have been too many hackers and not enough OBP, and definitely not enough power. And some really bad mojo with runners in scoring position which is pretty bizarre.
You sign Beltran and you pair him with Posey you have 2 natural hitters who are patient and hit for power. You throw in the Yogi Berra hacker of the year in Sandoval. If sober Huff in an even year shows up, you have a patient obp hitter with pop. Then you have Freddy Sanchez a great contact hitter, some CF who hopefully can get on base a little, the shortstop is a bit of a mess, and Nate Schierholtz as a 7th hitter is just fine. I'd love for Belt to be that bat if Beltran isn't signed, I just don't see it from the Brain Trust.
I totally agree with you defense is extremely important, I'm just looking at the hitting and think they will shake it up, because they have to. So I need a better catch phrase for a bat than "Power", thats weak sauce for sure.
Well, it is like what one tweeter answered when asked "what is it about obsess g?" (then he said something uncomplimentary about me) and the other guy said, "Looks like he just want to talk about the Giants" (or something close to that).
ReplyDeleteI enjoy chatting nicely with DrB and now Shankbone, and whoever about the Giants. But I'm not going to agree to agree, if I think I have a point, I will stick to it, and both DrB and Shankbone does likewise, while staying civil, and I enjoy that. There is nothing wrong with agreeing to disagree. I know I've been wrong many times and will be wrong again, I have no problem with changing my opinion, as long as there are facts behind it or strong solid logic and research.
DrB has created a nice oasis here where we can get away from the millionth juvenile joke (not that I'm against them, I love corny jokes more than most, but they have their place) and have nice, serious discussions about the team that we all clearly love. You all should join in, like Allfrank, I'm sure you all have a perspective to add.
Long time no see, good to hear from you, Allfrank, BTW. Good point about power hitters coming here to die, though Rowand wasn't a great example of that, he isn't considered the power hitter that Willingham is. Still, it is a big concern for any power hitter we bring in.
The bad defense is what sells me that the Giants will not get a LF just for power, and Beltran is really the only one I see so far that provides both power and defense. All of the above options have their tradeoffs (and I do realize that is why they won't cost as much as a Beltran), and I just don't see the Giants taking a huge hit on defense just to get a bat there. That's why I think they will shy away from the defensively challenged LF for those more in the middle, like David DeJesus, who, while not a power hitter, he does get on base, play OK defense, got a little power.
Now, there is the Burrell example that would support the notion that the Giants would be willing to take a hit defensively, but if you look at his advanced defensive stats, he was considered good in 2010, unlike his career up to then. That suggests that the Giants focus on defense, which they have alluded to, noting that their sabers focus on defensive stats that others don't, helped, I don't know, position Burrell just right, or maybe position Torres to protect him just right, so that his physical shortcomings didn't result in defensive shortcomings.
Anybody have an idea how the Giants did that? Or was it just a fluke reading, I have seen some good defensive players have years where they were horribly bad, and vice-versa, much like how a good hitter just inexplicably have that horrible year because of the bad BABIP.
OGC - the Fringe! The main calling card of the Fringe was Vlad. We might be right back there in a mini-Vlad situation with Beltran. You have the Rainy Day Fund, and lots of talk of budgets. One thing you have been adamant about is a lot of calls were taken out of Sabean's hands, such as the punting of draft picks and the calls on Zito/Rowand. I think that ownership loves the buffer of Sabean from the hard core fans, and he isn't in any immediate danger. I think ownership wants to carry on being a nice regional ballclub taking profits, so they want nothing to do with the Fringe.
ReplyDeleteFor me, I'm not advocating spending money to spend money, but rainy day funds and public declarations of budgets just seem like buffers to not have to field the best team possible. If there are choices made with marketing in mind, and the core group isn't retained, I think the Fringe goes off, and I'm a card carrying member. Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey and Sandoval. They all are young, super talented and need to be retained. They have paid lip service to it, lets see that ink dry.
The best move is to not only secure the core group, but to go and get key pieces to compete. They need a bridge to the guys who are 1-2 years out. This will cost money. They are hedging with this possible one time Beltran "request" Sabean talked about. The worst thing they can do is band aid it with mediocre signings. Go big or go small, don't go to the middle.
Changed my mind, I've been hedging this Willingham/Cuddyer thing as a last resort in the interest of a proven hitter. Screw that, these guys are Alfonso/Winn/Roberts 2.0. Sorry for clogging up your blog Dr. B. You put up some great summaries. So what's next?
Hey OGC - thanks for the comment about my grandpa - he hated Jack Clark, every time there was a runner on base and Clark came up he'd mutter "here comes a pop up"... No idea what Ripper's stats are, I should check that. He loved Krukow, and it was really fun living the Humm Baby years with him of course.
ReplyDeleteHey, np, sounds like Grandpa took care of you, love those personal stories. I hated Jack Clark's mouth but loved his bat, partly why I'm rooting against Cards, they didn't give us enough for him, plus there was 1987. I loved Kruk too, he should have started Game 7 of 1987 playoffs, not Atlee... I would love him back in Giants organization, but I think him becoming Dodgers hitting coach and wearing blue (plus his mouth) made him persona non grata with this Giants management. He really loved being in the Giants farm system, grew up with that tradition, I think that would be something great for him to do for us, travel between all the affiliates and teach them the Giants culture per the Giants Way manual. He has an appreciation for the history of the Giants, and I'm willing to forgive his lapse for taking Dodger's job, he lost all his money and needed a job, gotta eat.
ReplyDeleteI was on the Vlad wagon, but don't consider myself part of the Fringe. I worked out the financials of that, assuming we could have signed him for a similar contract (according to Ted Robinson, Vlad hated Felipe's guts, but Vlad said some really nice stuff about Alou when Alou got the Tigers managing job, so I don't know who to believe), we could have gotten Vlad plus most of the other signings and trades, except for a select few (don't recall now) for only maybe $2-3M more than they actually spent. My argument then, which you espouse here, is that you go big and get Vlad, you don't go mediocre the way they did. The way people have been on Sabean, I've been on ownership since that time, they had been stupid with their policies and decisions, and Neukom was a breathe of fresh air and hope for me, but now with Baer, I expect mediocre again. I hope not, but I expect that, and that's my big negative about the future of the Giants, right now.
Glad people feel this is a place to come for some serious baseball talk.
ReplyDeleteJack Clark was a frustrating player because it always seemed like he should be better, but if you just take him for what he actually was, he was a pretty darn good ballplayer. The thing I liked about him is he was fearless and gave credit to long time Giants coaches like Hank Sauer for teaching him to go up there and take his rips and if he missed 3 times go sit down and figure you'll hit one out the next time.
I've enjoyed reading this thread. Thanks for bringing back Jack Clark memories. I watched alot of Pacific Coast League Baseball AAA during the 70's and 80's when the Hawaii Islanders were here, and Jack Clark was the most impressive Giants hitting prospect I ever saw.. He was one of the few hitters who hit a homerun thru the heavy night air over the CF fence 420 ft away at Aloha Stadium. You just knew he was special. Too bad, I think he was victumized from being on too many bad SF Giants teams for fans to realize how good he was. I'll add the most impressive pitching prospect I saw was John the Count Montefusco.. I saw him lose a game something like 2-3 in 10 innings and his manager Rocky Bridges left him in all the way because he was pitching so well..
ReplyDeleteI really like the format of analyzing the available free agents, and then go over what we have in house. These analysis will provide a lot of context when DrB does the top 50 list. I really appreciate you doing this. This also really highlights the importance of a strong minor league program due to lack of good free agents, and the high price of available mediocre players
ReplyDeleteJack Clark was the player that got me started prospect watching. Up until he showed up, I had no idea about the minor leagues. While watching all those bad Giants teams, all of a sudden, a young 19 yr old star shows up. Where did he came from? Are there more like him? Dare we hope? Anyways, the only source of information for me was the Sporting News book at the local library. I remember going to the library every day just to see if the new edition has come out.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I got my start as a kid hanging out at the newstand at the local grocery store poring over Sporting News stat pages while my mother shopped for groceries. Nowadays it's just a mouse click or two and boom! You have this massive amount of information all the way down to the Dominican leagues where they are playing 16 year olds!
I think in terms of the options available I'd hope to think Sabes is thinking....
ReplyDeletePlan A: Re-sign Beltran
Fact is Beltran is the best feasible middle of the order bat out there for the Giants. If they can't retain him I think they probably take a step back in improving the offense given what else is out there. Personally, I'd like to see a 2 yr deal, but that is unlikely with Boras as his agent, maybe go 3 yrs with a mutual option for a 4th in or ard $12M per and hope for the best.
Plan B: Trade for Quentin
The White Sox are looking to cut back and Quentin is as good as gone. Though there is injury concern his power matches Beltran's if not surpasses it at this point in his career. While his defensive abilities aren't that great his bat kinda evens it out and if Beltran is indeed gone Quentin's power behind Sandoval & Posey would still make for a formidable heart of the order. He is just under 30 yrs of age and is fairly affordable. Due to win an est. $7.5M in arbitration, but because of all that I'm sure there will be a lot of teams vying for his services this winter. With that said it may be hard for the Giants to find the right deal to get it done.
Plan C: Sign Sizemore
Aye player I haven't really seen mentioned. Grady Sizemore 28 yo- Is likely to be cut loose by the Indians. Given his $8.5M club option the Indians will probably choose buying him out at $500K. Though he also is another injury concern (knees), if he could be had for maybe a 1-yr incentive based deal, say vesting on a # of PAs I think he'd be a nice risk/reward guy. With the
thought of Sizemore playing for another contract, proving his worth. If he could stay relatively healthy his career .357 OBP and 20+ HR power would definitely be welcomed to the Giants lineup. An interesting option maybe with say Coco Crisp on board playing CF Sizemore can shift to LF preserving his knees with Belt there to spill him.
I'm also a strong believer in Belt and hope he gets his full time shot next yr at 1B hopefully beating out Huff. 1B is his natural position after all and it's where he should be in my opinion. The guy could possibly win some GG's there. The Giants would be better off playing Belt and Pill at 1B, but Huff is still likely to still get his playing time there. I just cringe at the thought of him in the OF again.
-Ray