Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Shortstops

The Giants had problems at multiple positions in 2011, none more disastrous than shortstop. Edgar Renteria was a World Series hero in 2010, but was playing with a torn tendon and clearly could not be counted on for more than a backup role. Juan Uribe played remarkably well there but is not a shortstop, and Ned Colletti grossly overpaid to see if some of his Clubhouse Presence might rub off on the Dodgers. The people who thought Uribe was in for a severe regression proved to be right. The market for shortstops last offeason was even bleaker than the market for centerfielders this year. Sabean gambled that Miguel Tejada had one year left in him. He didn't, and there was no backup plan. Tejada couldn't field the position and was overmatched at the plate much of the season, finally going down with an injury. Desperate, the Giants called up Brandon Crawford who himself had started the year with an injury and was basically rehabbing with Single A San Jose. Crawford had never played above AA and had struggled there. He predictably struggled at the plate in the majors too, but a lot of Giants fans found his young athleticism on defense to be a breath of fresh air for the positions. A late season trade for Orlando Cabrera was not greeted with enthusiasm and Cabrera turned out to be little better than Tejada, if at all. Crawford got another look in September after the Giants were all but eliminated and was actually able to hit a little.

Crawford is the Giants in-house option to the the starting shortstop in 2012. Ideally, he could probably use another 500 minor league AB's, but his approach at the plate is already pretty good and he could also continue to develop as a hitter at the MLB level while providing plus defense. Although Crawford was less than a replacement player on offense, his fielding and baserunning enabled him to produce a +0.5 WAR in 507 innings for a value of $2.2 M. I think it's fairly safe to assume that Brandon would be no worse in 2012 and probably better with more experience. Worst case scenario over a whole season is about a 1.3 WAR or about $6 M, very close to what the Giants paid for Miggy Tejada last year, except Crawford will cost less than $500 K! While Sabes went out of his way to say the Giants have no internal options for CF, he did not say the same for SS even while commenting on Crawford's lack of readiness when he was called up last season.

With that starting point, let's take a look at outside options for the shortstop position in 2012:

Free Agents

Jose Reyes- Reyes is one of 3 premium free agents available this year. He's been a consistent 6 WAR player when healthy. At age 28, he should have at least 4 prime years left. A 7 year contract would end at age 35. The question is not whether Reyes would make the Giants a better team, but whether his contract fits into the their payroll structure over the next 7 years. I think it will take a minimum of 7 years/$140 M to get him signed and possibly more. Based on Brian Sabean's comments in the postseason presser, I would have to guess that Reyes won't be wearing a Giants uniform next season.

Jimmy Rolllins- Rollins is not the player who rang up a 6.9 WAR in 2007 and never will be. Next year will be his age 33 season so his time for delivering 3-4 WAR seasons is probably growing short. That would be a huge upgrade from what the Giants have gotten from the position in recent years but it won't come cheap. Rollins has said he is looking for a 5 year deal and I wouldn't bet against him getting it from somebody. I would think $12 M is probably the starting point for yearly salary too. Honestly, if the Giants are going to spend that kind of money on the position, I'd rather they go all in and sign Reyes.

Rafael Furcal- Furcal has a $12 M option that St Louis will certainly not pick up. He's coming off a terrrible season in which he put up a 0.5 WAR in 1.5X the number of innings as Brandon Crawford. Sure he might rebound to a 3-4 WAR player next year, but he's been injury prone for several seasons now, and Crawford could develop into a 3 WAR player too. I say pass.

Clint Barmes- Barmes is a player who might interest me for the right price. He's a plus fielder at SS and has some pop in his bat. On the other hand, he's put up his modest offensive numbers playing his home games in Coors Field and Minute Maid Park so no telling what he'd hit playing 102 games in SF, LA, SD and Oakland. Could be a 1- 2 year stopgap option if the Giants feel Crawford needs more time in the minors. He'll be 33 years old in 2012.

Alex Gonzalez- Was the SS for ATL in 2011. Has a bit of pop in his bat with 15 HR's but does almost nothing else positive at the plate. His defensive stats have been sliding the last 3 seasons and went negative last year. His 1.1 WAR over a full season of play is less than the minimum projected for Crawford. No thank you! 34 yo.

Yuniesky Betancourt- Yuniesky has hit 13 and 16 HR's the last 2 seasons but is allergic to walks and is a negative fielder. Call him a poor man's Juan Uribe. Has a $6 M option with a $2 M buyout. Touch choice for the Brewers, but he has put up < 1 WAR for 4 consecutive seasons. Again, I'd much rather have Crawford for equal price and Crawford will be much cheaper.

Marco Scutaro- This guy knows how to get on base and has a bit of pop in his bat. He's approximately neutral as a fielder. Some of the pop may go out of his bat moving from Boston. He has a $6M club option, $3M player option with a $1.5 M buyout. He's good for about a 2.5 WAR which is a bargain at $6 M so I'm guessing Boston re-ups him unless they want to clear the way for Lowrie. In that case, they would probably trade him before buying him out. He could be an asset to the Giants at $6 M for 1 season if the trade price wasn't too high. 36 yo.

Jamey Carroll- A very pesky hitter who knows how to get on base. Has put up 2.2 and 2.5 WAR the past two seasons for LA. Probably not a full time SS unless you are desperate. I would see him more as a utility guy to back up FSanchez and Crawford than a starting SS. He's a slightly negative fielder at all positons by UZR and that is unlikely to improve at his age. It would have to be no more than a 2 year deal and under $5 M for my taste. 37 yo.

Jack Wilson- Wilson has been something of a white whale for some Giants fans for a few years now. He is a terrible hitter whose fielding is starting to slip. He put up exactly 0 WAR in 2011. Thanks, but I'll take my chances with Crawford.

Nick Punto- Punto might just be the most underrated player in all of baseball. A plus fielder, even at SS, he's great at getting on base. Has accumulated 3.1 WAR in 454 AB's over the last 2 seasons. I would be happy with signing him on a 1 or 2 year deal as either a utility guy or as a stopgap starter at SS. 34 yo.

Trades

I can't think of any shortstop obviously better than Crawford who would be on the trading block. If there were, they would be very expensive in terms of prospects the Giants would have to give up.

Summary:

Brandon Crawford is a solid bet to put up at least a 1.5 WAR as the full time starting SS and has a chance to do quite a bit better than that, all for the MLB minimum salary. Short of a major outlay of FA $$$$ for either Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, I think the Giants need to put their faith in Brandon Crawford and go with him. Fontenot can be the backup at both 2B and SS to start the season, alternatively, the Giants could let Fonty go and try to sign Nick Punto or Jamey Carroll as utility IF. Desperation trades can be made in-season if necessary.