If there is one position where you might want to think about overdrafting for position, catcher would top my list. The problem with the catcher position is the enormous dropoff in production very early in the rankings. There is a guy in my 10 team fantasy league who left his catcher position unfilled most of the last 2 years because he thought the 10'th best catcher in baseball would actually hurt his team. Of course, with 4 of the 5 offensive categories in our league being counting stats, he was very wrong for doing that, but it illustrates just how far the difference between Joe Mauer and the 10'th best catcher in baseball really is. That gap may be starting to close as several exciting young catchers mature and some great looking catcher prospects break into the league. Here's my preliminary top 12 fantasy catchers for 2010(assuming the standard 5 offensive fantasy categories):
1. Joe Mauer- An elite hitter regardless of position. Should be a first round pick if available.
2. Victor Martinez- I rate him ahead of McCann because his ability to play non-catcher positions will enable him to get more TPA's, and thus more opportunity to accumulate counting stats.
3. Brian McCann- Mild concern about the outcome of repeat Lasik surgery, but assuming his eye problems are fixed, he's almost a lock for a .300+ BA with 20-25 HR's, 90+ RBIs. Very tough to equal that from the catcher position.
4. Matt Wieters- Wieters is going to break out huge in 2010! By this time next year, he will be challenging Joe Mauer for the #1 fantasy catcher spot. He probably won't ever hit for average the way Mauer does, but think 40 HR's/season! If you are a risk taker, Wieters should go in the first 3-4 rounds, especially if you are in a keeper league.
5. Miguel Montero- Another up-and-comer for Arizona. Can be as good as Brian McCann.
6. Kurt Suzuki- This guy has been durable with steadily improving numbers over the last 3 seasons. Still young enough to improve some more.
7. Jorge Posada- A bit dicey at age 38. Not sure he is good for more than 110 games, but as a lefthanded pull hitter in Yankee Stadium, should still be good for 20 HR's. The pickings get so slim at this level, he's worth the risk.
8. AJ Pierzynski- Steady as a clock. Mark him down for a .280-.300 BA, 10-15 HR's, 50-60 Runs and RBI's each.
9. Russell Martin- A pivotal year for Martin. His production has deteriorated two years running. Young enough and talented enough to bounce back, but was bad enough last year, without a good explanation, that it would be a mistake to draft him earlier than the later rounds.
10. Mike Napoli- This guy can hit, but Mike Scioscia seems to be not enamored with his defense. Would be ranked higher were it not for concerns about playing time.
11. Bengie Molina- Has been surprisingly productive over the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, but a cleanup hitter will get RBI opportunities even in that lineup. He won't hit cleanup for whatever team he signs with in 2010, and he isn't getting any younger or faster. High risk for a huge dropoff, but it's garbage time here. You can wait until the last round of the draft for Molina or any one of several other choices.
12. Yadier Molina- Yadier Molina won't hurt your Batting Average and will add a bit to your counting stats. Again, don't bother to use anything higher than your last draft pick on him.
There are a couple of rookies that should be watched closely right up to the draft. If it looks like they are going to be starters, they should be seriously considered ahead of the Molina's and possibly ahead of AJ Pierzynski:
Carlos Santana- Coming off a fractured hammate bone in his wrist. Had a small fragment surgically removed on December 9. That, and the uncertainties of a rookie season limit his preseason value, but by this time next year he could well be up there with Montero and the other tier 2 catchers. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Cleveland now that Shoppach has been traded, so recovery from the injury and surgery would be the only thing holding him back.
Buster Posey- The Giants are vacillating on whether to sign a stopgap veteran catcher for 1 season, or to throw Posey into the water and let him swim. Even if he starts the season with the MLB club, the Giants will try to limit him to no more than 100 games. Still, might be worth drafting in some keeper leagues. He should develop into at least a tier 2 catcher quickly.
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Just a Random Comment: Some where in the United States there is room for more baseball...which is why they should form another expansion team for Free Agents only! With this years list, it's like a fantasy roster in itself! Yes, most are way way way past their prime, coming off injury etc. But how cool would that be a Free Agent Expansion Team!!!
ReplyDeleteInteresting thought. It seems like a fairly weak FA class this year, but still probably enough to field a pretty good team.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the Inland Empire of Southern California? There is an enormous population with access to major media. I think that's where the next expansion or movement of an existing team should be looking.