As it stands right now, Madison Bumgarner is the Giants #5 starter going into the season. Most of us who saw "MadBum" pitch last September probably are not terribly comfortable with that thought. "MadBum's" pitched OK, but his velocity was quite disappointing and it looked like his secondary stuff has a long ways to go. Now, if us fans are thinking that, it is highly doubtful that Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, two guys who are notoriously gunshy about committing to rookies at the start of a season, are liking this plan any better, if as well. No, I'd wager a fairly large amount of $$ that Brian Sabean is posturing, waiting out the offseason and plans to scavenge the remaining bits of meat off the carcass of this year's free agent class, dumpster diving if you will. The Giants are not going to spend as much as $1 M on a veteran 5'th starter option, but neither are they going to go to Spring Training without veteran options either. Let's take a look at who is still available, and who will likely fit the profile:
Erik Bedard: Coming off an injury. Baltimore is reportedly kicking the tires. Doubtful fit for the Giants. If he can convince a team he is healthy, will command more than $1 M, and if he's not, then why would you want to sign him at all?
Kris Benson: Might be worth a minor league deal, but hasn't pitched effectively since 2006. Probably not worth the trouble. Is he still married to the ex-stripper?
Bartolo Colon: Released by CWS in July 2009. I don't know the state of his health, but he didn't pitch terrible for the ChiSox. Can't be counted on to pitch a full season, but might make it long enough to give MadBum a bit more seasoning.
Jose Contreras: Helped the Rockies down the stretch last year. Has been flirting with going to Japan, so will probably want too much money. Not my first choice anyway.
Doug Davis: For some reason I really want this guy. I think he puts up decent numbers in SF. Seems to have 4 midwest teams interested, so his price is unlikely to fall into the Giants range.
Adam Eaton: No thank you.
Shawn Estes: No thank you.
Jon Garland: Another option I really like. I think the Dodgers are still interested, so unlikely to fall into Giants price range.
Mike Hampton: Hasn't pitched a full season since 2004. Not sure of his current health status. Would consider if healthy and the price is right.
Livan Hernandez: This one is unlikely to happen. Would be unpopular with fans and he clashed with Rags during his prior stint with the Giants. He did have Quality Starts in 6 of his last 10 games last season. Got blasted in the other 4 to run up his ERA. Not sure what more you want from a cheap #5 starter.
Braden Looper: Another journeyman, innings eating grinder who will give you some quality starts. Someone will give him >$1 M to pitch.
Noah Lowry: Would love to see him in Spring Training on a minor league deal, but the bridges seem to be burned.
Pedro Martinez: I would love this, but won't pitch for peanuts.
Vicente Padilla: Dodgers still interested and will be overpriced due to flukey stint last September.
Joel Piniero: Good pitcher, but is looking for more $$$$.
Ben Sheets: If he can convince teams he's healthy, will command more $$$.
John Smoltz: Might be a good fit. Would he pitch for low $$$? Probably not.
CM Wang: Might have to take a minimum contract to prove he's healthy.
Jarrod Washburn: I don't like this guy at any price, but would eat some innings as a placeholder.
Todd Wellemeyer: Another innings eater. Might come cheap.
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez: Not even listed as a MLB free agent. Put up this line in the Venezuelan Winter League: 1-2, 3.27, 33 IP, 15 BB, 27 K's. You know he wants to pitch. Would probably sign for almost any price.
"In-House Options:
Joe Martinez: I know I'd like to see Joey get another shot. We'd still have MadBum as a backup plan.
Steve Johnson: Rule 5 draftee, so has to stick on the 25 man roster or be offered back to Baltimore. Worked as a starter at 3 stops in the minors last year with a combined line of 12-7, 3.41, 145.1 IP, 62 BB, 154 K's. 4 pitch repertoire without a single out pitch might be more suited for starting than relieving, but his he a better option than Martinez?
Kevin Pucetas: Would have been the odds on favorite had he not stumbled badly down the stretch last season for Fresno. Will have to prove it was just fatigue.
Convert a reliever: This might be an option if the Giants sign another reliever such as Kiko Calero. My choice would be Sergio Romo. Waldis Joaquin has started in the not so distant past too. Doubt the Giants see this as an option. It's too far outside the box.
Do you like any of these guys, or should we just roll the dice with Madison Bumgarner?
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I think the # 5 starter is way undervalued, especially with the Giants. A #3 pitching in the #5 position may give the Giants several extra wins, and those extra wins could be the difference between 1st and 3rd place in the NL West. Rather than dumpster dive for a known mediocre pitcher, I would spend extra dollar for a potential #3. A good pitcher is especially important for the Giants since the offense is unlikely to bail out a poor pitching performance. Therefore, I would sign someone like Smoltz, Garland, Martinez, Sheets, Bedard assuming they are healthy.
ReplyDeleteIn a way, this argument goes back to your question as to why the Giants of the 60’s didn’t win pennants. The Dodgers had an OK offense, with 2 #1 pitchers. The Giants had a great offense, and a couple of HOF pitchers as well. The question is whether the drop off of the rest of the rotation is the difference?
Well, I basically agree with you. I had my heart set on Brad Penny and still think he was a heckuva deal. I believe Penny would have added more to the pitching than Huff/DeRosa add to the hitting. What's not clear to me is if the Giants, knowing what his price would be, just didn't want to pay it, or if Penny didn't want to come back and never gave them a chance.
ReplyDeleteAnother way of looking at it is if we offered LaRoche 2 years at $17M, and ended up paying Huff $3M, then we might have as much as $5-6 M available to spend. If so, I think we should sink every penny of it into the best #5 starter we can find. Out of what's still available, I think I favor Garland or Bush because they are the most likely to be able to pitch the full season.
If I had to guess though, the Giants aren't going to pay more than $1M.
the overall tone of this winter has to do with not spending money. So I expect Johnson, Pucetas, and Martinez will actually be competing and the MadBum talk is kind of a bluff aimed at getting a low price from somebody like Wang or maybe Looper or davis if the market drops for them. Like many, I am rooting for Martinez.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Anonymous #2 -- I think that’s exactly where they’re headed. Candidly, I’m kind of curious about this Johnson fellow, who Tidrow seems high on and who has a pretty good pedigree.
ReplyDeleteBut ~ “Noah Lowry: Would love to see him in Spring Training on a minor league deal, but the bridges seem to be burned.” That would be my sentimental choice. I don’t know why Sabean has to get so pissy, or why he engenders such pissy reactions. Watching him negotiate is like watching a Shakespearan tragedy; you can just see the characters implode and there’s nothing you can do. (See, Kent, Jeff.) I think they ought to make it right with Noah and bring him back for something more than others would pay (they probably owe him a premium.)
Jim
There wasn't a whole lot to spend on this winter that wasn't grossly overpriced, but yeah, the Giants clearly never intended to be at all aggressive in this market, even for relative bargains like Brad Penny. The problem is, if you add up all the $$$$ that were spent on Huff, DeRosa and Uribe plus the rumored offer to LaRoche, it all adds up to a pretty sizable chunk of money. Sabean's MO going all the way back to the Matt Williams trade is to not put all of his eggs in one or two baskets. He clearly believes that having decent-good players at all positions is better than having 3 or 4 superstars and the rest of the team be minimum wage.
ReplyDeleteAs for his negotiating skills, I agree, he would best delegate that entirely to someone else. Come to think of it, is there anything Sabean isn't better off delegating to someone else? What hurt the most about Ned Colletti leaving isn't that Colletti is a great GM for the Dodgers, he isn't. Colletti seemed to be the buffer between Brian Sabean and whoever the Giants were negotiating with whether it be FA's or other GM's on trades.
I think the classic Brian Sabean negotiating moment was when practically the first words out of his mouth after he acquired AJ Pierzynski was that if AJ went to arbitration he'd be gone after 1 year. Now, AJ admittedly had a rather infantile reaction to that, but it was also a stupid thing for Brian Sabean to say, and pretty much doomed the trade right from the outset.
I left off one other possibility: Ramon Ortiz pitched very well for Fresno last season. I haven't heard that he has signed with anyone else. Historically, if you can pitch that well in Fresno, you can pitch effectively in the major leagues. Ortiz may not be on the Giants radar though. I thought it was curious that they rushed MadBum up last year instead of giving Ortiz the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI watched Estes pitch in triple A last year and he was sharp (but stuck behind a half dozen guys wairting in the wings with major league contracts already being paid. A couple of years removed from Tommy John, says to be the healthest in 5+ years, and the right price. He would be a good invite and solid in the #5 spot.
ReplyDeleteEstes K and BB rates aren't too impressive, but a 3.07 ERA pitching in Albuquerque isn't half bad. OK, I'll take a ST invite and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteMy vote would be any of the in-house options, outside of Bumgarner.
ReplyDeletei think they should give bartolo colon a chance
ReplyDeletekris benson? only if anna comes too