Fantasy Impact: The Hidden Stat

Many fantasy baseball leagues use 5 offensive statistics in their scoring: Runs, HR's, RBI's, SB's and Batting Average. Notice that 4 of those 5 stats are counting stats rather than averages or percentages. While many fantasy baseball commentators spend column after column and page after page expounding and debating the relative merits of OPS, BABIP and other percentage based stats to prognosticate fantasy success, there is another stat that often is completely overlooked that may have a far greater impact, TPA or Total Plate Appearances.

When a player misses a game, his percentage stats are unaffected, because the denominator does not change. A player can miss 3 games in a week, but if he goes 6 for 12 in the other 3, he may help your Batting Average. Counting stats are a whole different story. Each game that a player misses is a lost opportunity to add to his total of Runs, RBI's, HR's, and SB's. A player may have a stellar Batting Average, OBP, SLG%, OPS. His BABIP may have been low suggesting a bounceback next season. None of that matters much if the player is on a team where the manager likes to give his bench players a start here and there, or if the manager likes to juggle lineups a lot for favorable matchups or else plays a straight platoon, or if an older player has to rest once a week.

Let's look at two players, Chipper Jones and Nick Markakis. Chipper had an OPS of .818, but had some nagging injuries and required frequent rests. He accumulated just 596 TPA's, not an exceptionally low number, but nowhere near the league leaders. Nick Markakis had an OPS of .801, but played 161 games and accumulated 711 TPA's, well in the top 20 in baseball. Let's take a look at these player's fantasy lines:

Chipper Jones: Runs: 80, HR's: 18, RBI's: 71, SB: 4, BA: .264.

Nick Markakis: Runs: 94, HR's 18, RBI's: 101, SB: 6, BA: .293

Markakis bests Jones in Runs by a healthy margin, and obliterates him in RBI's largely because he simply had more opportunities to accumulate these numbers

One situation where TPA comes into play and may be difficult to detect is when a team has great OF depth. I remember in 2008, I had Rick Ankiel on my fantasy team for awhile. He provided pretty good power numbers and appeared to be a starting OF for the Cardinals. What I didn't know when I added him to my team was that Tony LaRussa had what he considered 4 good OF's and insisted on rotating them approximately equally to "keep them fresh" for the full season. So yeah, Rick Ankiel gave me decent production when he played, but he was sitting every 4'th game in which he gave me zip, nada, nothing in the 4 counting stats.

Let's take a look at 3 teams where OF depth may become a problem for fantasy baseball owners in 2010:

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have some OF's who may seem mighty appealing on the surface. Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler look like potential "breakout" candidates. Brad Hawpe has provided steady production for several seasons. Seth Smith had a great looking OPS last season and Ryan Spilborghs was a breakout candidate last year. The problem is that all 5 of these players will be vying for playing time at just 3 positions. To make matters worse, the R-L distribution makes several of them tempting for platoon play. Carlos Gonzalez may be a great breakout candidate, but his production will be severely limited if he has to share playing time with Dexter Fowler in CF or Seth Smith in LF. The Rockies OF situation should be monitored closely and approached with caution until roles are clearly defined.

Oakland A's: The recent signing of Coco Crisp gives the A's 4 OF's of similar skills and approximately equal ability: Crisp, Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney and Scott Hairston. The acquisition of Michael Taylor, a power hitting OF prospect on the verge of being MLB ready only complicates the situation further. At this point, the only thing that seems certain is that Crisp has 5 million reasons why he will be starting.....if he's healthy. You may look at Rajai Davis' 41 SB's from last year and be thinking he might give you a nice source of SB's, but how much is he going to play after the addition of Coco Crisp? You may be looking at Ryan Sweeney as a breakout candidate, but the same question applies. Again, the Oakland OF situation should be monitored closely and approached with caution until roles are more clearly defined.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have at least 4 OF's who can make a case for playing time: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. Adam Jones certainly looks like a player on the rise, but what happens if he goes into a slump? Does Pie get a foot in the door and start taking significant playing time? What about Reimold's power vs Pie's speed and defense? Not quite as unsettled as Colorado and Oakland, but worth watching with some caution.

Interestingly enough, the Cardinals may have just 3 full time OF's and thus be a good situation for fantasy owners. Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan are FA's this year so probably won't be on the team. Assuming Matt Holliday signs, that would give the Cards a starting OF of Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick with little incentive for LaRussa to go to one of his 4 man rotations.