Vladimir Guerrero has agreed to terms with the Texas Rangers, reportedly 1 year/$5M with a $1 M mutual option for 2011. That's right, $5 M/yr! Now, 35 is not young for a ballplayer, but it's also not extremely old by today's standards. Yes, Vlad missed a lot of time last year. He probably can't play in the field any more. Yes, his numbers had been slowly declining before last year, but Vlad Guerrero? $5 M/yr?
The offseason before the 2004 season was one of the craziest in memory for Giants fans, and possibly one of the most disastrous, although if you are at all familiar with Giants history, they have had way more than their share of disastrous offseasons. Vlad Guerrero was a free agent. Giants fans had long been eyeing Vlad as the perfect lineup complement to Barry Bonds. It seemed so perfect. Barry was nearing the end of his career. Vlad was still early in the prime of his. Vlad would protect Barry in the lineup for 3-4 seasons and then take the mantle of Franchise Player when Barry retired. There were clues that just maybe it might happen. Why else would Brian Sabean personally fly to Florida to beg Felipe Alou, Vlad's old manager from the Expos, and beg him to accept the job of managing the Giants? Giants oriented message boards were clogged with seemingly endless financial calculations showing how a roster, including Vlad and Barry Bonds could be constructed and still fit into the Giants payroll parameters.
You know the rest of the story. The Giants never even made Vlad an offer! Instead, they traded 3 pitchers to Minnesota for AJ Pierzynski, actually dumped a first round draft pick to sign Michael Tucker to play RF, and added SP Brett Tomko for good measure. Brian Sabean forever alienated the Giants hardcore fans by referring to them as the "Lunatic Fringe," a term many still refer to themselves as with pride.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Vlad would have signed with the Giants even if they had made the highest offer. It was rumored that Vlad was not enamored with Felipe Alou as manager back in Montreal, and after seeing Felipe in action for 4 years as the Giants manager, it's not hard to see why. Vlad may also have not wanted to come to SF to play second fiddle to Barry Bonds. It's also no guarantee that the Giants would have won a championship with Vlad and Barry. After all, they had 5 hall of famers on the team in the 1960's and didn't win squat! An OF of Barry Bonds in LF, Marquis Grissom in CF and Vlad in RF would have given up a ton of doubles and triples up the alleys in AT&T park or whatever it was called at the time. But, Giants fans will always wonder what might have been, and quietly curse Brian Sabean under their breath, or maybe not so quietly and not under their breath! Remember 2004? Remember game #161 in Dodger Stadium? Vlad Guerrero had a line of .337/.391/.598 with 39 HR's for the Angels that year. We'll never know if that line next to Barry's .362/.609/.812 would have been better than then combined efforts of AJ Pierzynski, Michael Tucker, Brett Tomko and a few relievers, but a lot of us are convinced that it would have.
In terms of $$ value, Vlad earned his pay with the Angels. A great hitter, he was never a good fielder despite having a cannon for an arm in RF. His defense was a negative that got progressively stronger over the course of the contract. Still, by fangraphs.com estimates, Vlad came within about $5 M of earning his pay over the course of the contract. The Giants clearly could have afforded him. The Angels only paid him $12 M/yr the first two years of the contract. That's Aaron Rowand money! Between his years in Montreal, his relatively modest contract with the Angels, and now this, Vlad Guerrero, over the course of his career may be one of the most underpaid players in baseball history.
Fantasy Impact: Having only played 2 games in the field last year, Vlad may lose OF eligibility in a lot of leagues which limits him to a Utility spot on a fantasy roster. He loves hitting in Texas, though, with a career SLG% of something like .650 there! I expect him to thrive as a full time DH. If he is available in the early-mid rounds of your fantasy draft, don't forget him. He's probably more valuable than whoever you think is going to have a breakout season this year.
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Looking back is easy to do, but I do recall that the Giants were afraid of Vlads back problems and used that as a reason not to talk with him.
ReplyDeleteSaying that, I think that the Giants were right in not siging him.
2004 would have been a sweet year with both Bonds and Vlad on the team. Starting in 2005 though Vlad started missing more games in the field and DHing more.
Here are the breakdowns:
2005 120 games in RF, 20 at DH
2006 126 and 30
2007 109 and 41
2008 99 and 44
2009 2 and 93.
If he had been playing in the NL, his $$ value wouldn't have stood up. You can posulate that he would have missed even more games in the OF , due to the fact that he wouldn't have been able to get his rest when he Dhed.
Alas, we will never know, as the Giants didn't make an offer. One can only debate it here, and thats why baseball is so great.