In the previous post, we looked at the dearth of strong catching options in Major League Baseball. The Giants are finding that out the hard way this offseason. Catching is one of the few positions where there is a semblance of a seller's market. The Giants find themselves caught between the past and the future, but possibly no present. Bengie Molina was their catcher for the last 3 years certainly earned his salary and then some. Yes, he was painfully slow on the bases, hacked at way too many bad pitches, and perhaps called for too many fastballs so as not to have to block breaking balls in the dirt, but he was at least average on defense and was practically the Giants only source of power. Bengie's contract is up. At age 35, he knows he doesn't have many paydays left. Bengie wants a multiyear contract. Meanwhile, the Giants made the College Player of the Year, Buster Posey, a catcher, their first round draft choice in 2008, #5 overall. Buster might not be quite ready to take over as the Giants starting catcher in 2010, but he's very close. It seems likely that Buster will work his way into that position before the end of the season, and be ready for his first full season as the starting catcher in 2011. The Giants don't want to sign any multiyear contracts with a veteran catcher who will get in the way of Buster's timetable.
The offseason began with the Giants proclaiming that Buster might not be ready to catch 100+ games in the majors next season, and that they were looking for a veteran catcher on a 1 year contract. By the time the winter meetings rolled around, several veteran catchers had already signed and several were given 2 year contracts and for more money than the Giants are wanting to pay. Reports from the team had them re-evaluating Buster Posey's readiness and moving toward penciling him in as the starter. Looking over what's left out on the free agent market, it's looking more and more like they may not have much choice. Here is a list of all still available free agent catchers that might be considered an upgrade on Eli Whiteside, the Giants current backup catcher with last year's stat lines:
Rod Barajas: 34 years old. .226/.258/.403 with 19 HR's. That's an even worse OBP than Bengie, but excellent isolated power. Barajas is seeking a 2 year contract, so isn't going to sign for 1 year any time soon.
Yorvit Torrealba: 31 years old. .291/.351/.380 with 2 HR's in 213 AB's. Much better BA and OBP, but no power to speak of. Also seeking a multiyear contract.
Miguel Olivo: 31 years old. .249/.291/.490 with 23 HR's. Great offensive numbers, especially the HR's, but reportedly not a good defensive catcher. Rumors have him close to a deal with the Colorado Rockies, so he may be off the market soon if not already.
Brad Ausmus: 41 years old. .295/.343/.368 with 1 HR in 95 AB's for the Dodgers. Don't let that BA fool you. His career BA is far lower. At this point of his career, he won't be catching more than a few games as a backup, and is unlikely to hit better than Whiteside.
Paul Bako: 37 years old. .224/.308/.336 with 3 HR's in 116 AB's. Again, nothing more than a backup. Does hit lefthanded which makes him a bit more attractive, but again, unlikely to hit much better than Whiteside.
Bengie Molina: It's hard to imagine Bengie coming back on a 1 year contract, but the Mets don't seem to be budging from their 1 year plus an option offer. Still, the Mets offer is probably for more than the Giants want to pay even for 1 year. A real longshot.
It's possible the Giants might make a trade. Tampa Bay would probably deal Dioner Navarro, but do the Giants want to give up a prospect or two for a catcher that they only need for maybe less than a year?
Texas is rumored to be in the market for a veteran catcher. Seattle and San Diego may be looking to scoop up one on the cheap just like the Giants. It's looking more and more like the Giants are not going to find what they are looking for this offseason, which leaves Buster Posey as the probable starting catcher.
I think Buster is ready, at least as much as he is ever going to be. He played well for AAA Fresno last year. He struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League, but observers felt he was fatigued from the long season. The Giants experience with sending Todd Linden, Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker back to Fresno for more seasoning has not yielded the hoped for boost to their major league start. Buster will likely have an adjustment period during which he struggles, but the talent is there. Elite major college talent has historically been able to transition quickly to the major leagues. If he is given the starting catcher job out of spring training, Buster Posey will likely be a top 10 MLB catcher by the end of the season.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
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and the ZIPS projections rate Buster's hitting pretty high too. 263 / 343 / 398, OPS+ of 95.
ReplyDelete(thanks, jponry and baseball thinkfactory)
Still, the jump to the bigs is a big jump. A conteding team with competent budget management would not be in this spot. I got my worries about defense. There were rough times, like the pitch that clocked the ump because Posey missed it. 54