This will probably not look much different than my draft board, but we will include information about recent draft tendencies and organizational needs. When we say organizational needs, we don't mean at the mlb level but the organization as a whole with attention to the farm system. This is for fun and to understand the prospects better. Mock drafts, even by professional writers who have access to inside information, are notoriously inaccurate.
1. Detroit Tigers.
Needs: Everything but they have more pitching in the system than hitting.
Recent Draft Trends: High school hitting/College Pitching.
2020 Pick: Spencer Torkelson 1B. Special bat to build offense around. At this point, it will be a major surprise if they don't take Tork and could throw draft boards of subsequent teams into chaos if they don't.
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2. Baltimore Orioles.
Needs: Everything.
Recent Draft Trends: Took college catcher last year but 2 previous seasons took HS pitchers.
2020 Pick: Austin Martin SS. Orioles are a quirky team. If any organization would use COVID 19 as an excuse to not take the Best Player Available, it would be the O's. Still, they took the BPA last year in Adley Rutschman and will most likely dos so again this year with Austin Martin who is in the top tier of just two players with Spencer Torkelson even if he ends up at 2B. The bat is that good.
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3. Miami Marlins.
Needs: Everything.
Recent Draft Trends: Took college hitters JJ Bleday and Kameron Misner last year but organizational trend is HS "toolsy" hitters and HS pitchers.
2020 Pick: Zac Veen OF. Here's where veering away from conventional wisdom. This is the organization that drafted Christian Yelich which is the most common comp for Veen and the Marlins are clearly not afraid of gambling on HS talent.
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4. Kansas City Royals.
Needs: Everything. Pitching prospects are closer to MLB than hitting prospects.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitchers/HS Hitters.
2020 Pick: Nick Gonzalez 2B. Reminds them of Whit Merrifield who will likely not be part of the next winning Royals team.
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5. Toronto Blue Jays.
Needs: Everything. More young hitters at MLB level than young pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitchers
2020 Pick: Max Meyer RHP. Blue Jays are rumored to be in on Max Meyer. Asa Lacy falling is not enough to move them off that.
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6. Seattle Mariners.
Needs: Pitching. Top 2 prospects in system are OF's and 7 of top 10 prospects are position players.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitching(2018, 2019) and College Hitting(2016 and 2017).
2020 Pick: Asa Lacy LHP. With Nick Gonzalez off the board, Asa Lacy's slide stops here and the Mariners might have a steal.
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7. Pittsburgh Pirates.
Needs: Everything but farm system has more promising pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College and High School hitting. College Pitching in 2019. Under new management, so may not be applicable.
2020 Pick: Heston Kjerstad OF. Quite a few mocks have Kjerstad to the Bucs and it makes too much sense, so Kjerstad it is.
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8. San Diego Padres.
Needs: Not much really. They have young stars at the MLB level and one of the strongest, most balanced farm systems in baseball.
Recent Draft Trends: High School pitchers/hitters.
2020 Pick: Robert Hassell OF. Padres can afford to be patient and wait for HS talent to develop. They are rumored to be in love with Hassell's sweet swing. They will have to convince themselves he won't honor his committment to Vandy.
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9. Colorado Rockies.
Needs: Pitching, pitching, pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching last two drafts after a 3 year run of HS players.
2020 Pick: Emerson Hancock. The Rockies have a long history of drafting pitchability lefties like Reid Detmers and it never got them much in return. Detmers extreme flyball tendency is a poor fit and curveballs don't curve at a mile high! So, they'll grab the most projectable college power pitcher in the draft when Hancock falls to them. Perfect fit!
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10. LA Angels.
Needs: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
Recent Draft Trends: College/High School hitters.
2020 Pick: Reid Detmers, LHP. Angels go for need and take high floor college lefty who can move fast.
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11. Chicago White Sox.
Needs: Pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: ChiSox have taken college hitters with the last 4 drafts and college players the last 7.
2020 Pick: Patrick Bailey C. ChiSox stay with statistically best ROI demographic. Switch-hitting defensive catcher a solid investment.
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12. Cincinnati Reds.
Needs: Organization fairly balanced but farm system leans slightly toward pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching except for Hunter Greene in 2017.
2020 Pick: Bryse Jarvis RHP. With Hunter Greene struggling and coming back from TJ, the Reds stick to the safety of college talent. Unfortunately the top college hitters are off the board, so they the pitcher who is a SABR wet dream over the more projectable but risky Cade Cavalli or Cole Wilcox.
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13. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Organizational pitching is extremely thin, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting. Not a trend since they are under new management. Farhan Zaidi, an uber-analytical guy, is also rumored to insist on tools. The Dodgers and A's took players from all four major demographics while FZ was with those organizations.
2020 Pick: Tyler Soderstrom C. This pick makes a lot of sense on several levels. FZ loves lefty hitting catchers. His bat has emerged as a plus tool with present power and potential for more. He has the defensive chops to stay behind the plate but is athletic enough to move to other positions. FZ values versatility. The Giants are said to be concentrating on players with local backgrounds. Turlock is Giants territory and dad, Steve Soderstrom, is a former Giants first round draft pick. It's a pick I could definitely get behind.
Many Giants fans, including me, would like to see the Giants go pitching heavy this draft. Scouting Director Michael Holmes has said he expects them to have a more balanced approach this year than last when they went almost exclusively hitting. Pitching possibilities for this pick in this scenario would be college RHP Cole Wilcox, perhaps the most physical pitcher in the draft, and RHP's Jared Kelley and Mick Abel who might be the most projectable pitcher in the draft.
Then, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs comes out and says he hears the Giants are kicking the tires on a seriously underslot deal for a college hitter who most boards have at the end of round 1 or below, Justin Foscue. Now, Foscue can definitely hit, but he's also seriously slow afoot and projects as a 2B only and would be a similar player in the system as Will Wilson. Seriously? Do the Giants really need another first round pick in that demographic? I have to say I would be disappointed, at least until I saw what they were able to get later with the bonus money saved. It would need to be impressively good.
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14. Texas Rangers.
Needs: Pitching
Recent Draft Trends: College 3B(Last two years); HS pitcher/hitter 2017 and 2018).
2020 Pick: Jared Kelley RHP. I haven't seen his name associated with the Rangers, but they are said to be heavily scouting pitching and are not afraid of HS pitching. Kelley is from Texas. Perfect fit!
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15. Philadelphia Phillies.
Needs: Nothing glaring. Farm system is fairly well balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: College Hitting.
2020 Pick: Garrett Mitchell OF. Toolsiest college hitter falls to the Phils and they snap him up after doing due diligence on the medicals.
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16. Chicago Cubs.
Needs: Everything. Farm system is very thin after top prospect, Nico Hoerner.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Cole Wilcox RHP. Love this pick and would be A-OK if the Giants took him at #13. Most physical pitcher in the draft. Ceiling is ace.
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17. Boston Red Sox.
Needs: Everything. Farm system was strip mined under Dave Dombrowski.
Recent Draft Trends: New Management. Rays last 5 first round picks have come from all 4 major demographics.
2020 Pick: Mick Abel RHP. Most projectable HS pitcher in the draft falls in to the Red Sox lap.
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18. Arizona Diamondbacks.
Needs: Pitching
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting.
2020 Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong. Top 2 prospects in system are toolsy OF's, but the D'Backs ignore needs and take the top player on their board. Will need to sign him away from Vandy commit.
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19. New York Mets.
Needs: None. Mets have a well balanced system.
Recent Draft Trends: HS hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Nick Bitsko RHP. Similarities to Matthew Allan who the Mets finagled a large over-slot bonus for last year.
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20. Milwaukee Brewers.
Needs: Everything. System is weakened from graduations and trades.
Recent Draft Trends: College pitching/hitting(HS hitter in 2018, Brice Turang).
2020 Pick: Austin Hendrick OF. BrewCrew rumored to be looking at college pitching but when Hendrick falls to them, they can't resist.
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21. St Louis Cardinals.
Needs: Cards have a balanced system.
Recent Draft Trends: High School Hitters/College Pitchers.
2020 Pick: Ed Howard SS. Cards could go college pitching but like the Giants, they have 7 picks in this draft which allows them to grab the higher ceiling HS SS.
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22. Washington Nationals.
Needs: Top 2 prospects in system are infielders but rest of top 10 are all pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College pitching(HS 2018)
2020 Pick: Garrett Crochet LHP. Nationals have taken chances in the past(Seth Romero). If they are satisfied with Crochet's medicals they grab the high ceiling lefty.
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23. Cleveland Indians.
Needs: Fairly balanced system but top 4 prospects are hitters.
Recent Draft Trends: High School hitters/pitchers.
2020 Pick: Jordan Walker 3B. Indians stick to their trends and take the top HS player on the board. Tremendous upside. Most physical player in the draft(except maybe Cole Wilcox).
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24. Tampa Bay Rays.
Needs: None. Rays have one of the strongest, if not THE strongest farm systems in baseball.
Recent Draft Trends: Rays have drafted from all 4 demographics over past 5 drafts.
2020 Pick: Bobby Miller RHP. Rays go back where they found Brendan McKay and take the highly projectable college pitcher.
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25. Atlanta Braves.
Needs: System is quite balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: Braves went college heavy last year under new management.
2002 Pick: Chris McMahon RHP. High floor college pitcher fits both Braves needs and draft trends.
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26. Oakland A's.
Needs: Oakland System is balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Austin Wells C. A's grab the bat. Will worry about where he plays later.
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27. Minnesota Twins.
Needs: Twins have a balanced system but a bit thinner on the pitching side.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting.
2020 Pick: Justin Foscue 2B. There is actually not a lot of space between Nick Gonzalez and Foscue and Foscue may end up with a lot more power. High floor college hitter is great value this low in first round.
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28. New York Yankees.
Needs: None.
Recent Draft Trends: High School hitters, College pitchers.
2020 Pick: Dillon Dingler C. Yankees like to draft up-the-middle talent. Dingler is a college catcher who converted from CF and is athletic enough to move back.
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29. Los Angeles Dodgers.
Needs: None.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitters/pitchers.
2020 Pick: JT Ginn RHP. Dodgers drafted him before. They are not afraid of pitchers with TJ history. Without any obivous standout choices at #29, they roll the dice on Ginn again.
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49. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Pitching, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting. Only 1 draft under current management.
2020 Round 2 Pick: I really have no idea. Rumors seem to point to the Giants lying in the weeds for a high-ceiling college talent who falls. There are several HS pitchers who could fall due to demographic risk or HS hitters due to signability. I don't generally count on signable players falling all the way to #49, though. I am going to post 2 names from each demographic who I think might reasonably be available. I will limit it to names who aren't in my first round mock draft:
College Hitters: Hudson Haskin OF, Aaron Sabato 1B. Haskin is the rare college hitter with projection left in the frame. Very athletic. Sabato is a RH version of Logan Wyatt who the Giants took in Round 2 last year.
College Pitchers: Kyle Nicolas RHP, Ian Bedell RHP. Nicolas is a physical beast with tons of projectability left. Bedell is average size but might have the best 4-pitch mix in the entire draft and could be MLB ready in a flash. I'll add JC RHP Franco Aleman for good measure. Huge pitcher with a projectable frame.
HS Hitters: Mario Zabala OF, Chase Davis OF. Zabala is a bit more projectable. Davis might have the better bat. Robby Ashford is probably a pipe dream.
HS Pitchers: Tanner Witt RHP, Ryan Hagenow RHP. Both have very high ceilings. Witt might be the tougher sign. Dax Fulton LHP has a crazy ceiling if the Giants aren't scared off by the TJ and think he's signable.
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67, 68. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Pitching, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting. Only 1 draft under current management.
2020 Picks: Same drill.
College Hitters: Alerick Soularie OF, Alika Williams SS. Kind of reaching a bit here. I would hope for higher ceilings with these picks.
College Pitchers: Nick Garcia RHP, Nick Frasso RHP. Garcia has a big league frame and fastball but pitches for a DIII school. Frasso might be more projectable.
HS Hitters: Yohandy Morales 3B, Coby Mayo 3B. A couple of potential 30+ HR guys.
HS Pitchers: Markevian Hence RHP, Cam Brown RHP. Hence is small but has a dynamite arm and name. Brown has classic pitcher's size and a mid-90's FB.
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85. San Francisco Giants.
A few random names I like: TJ McCants SS, HS. Beck Way LHP, JC. Ricky Tiedemann LHP, HS, Trent Palmer RHP, College.
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114. San Francisico Giants.
Michael Rothenburg C, College, Johnny Cuevas RHP, JC, Luke Little LHP, JC. Alex Toral 1B, College.
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144. San Francisco Giants.
Joey Wiemer OF, College, Jackson Wolf LHP, College, Blaze Jordan 1B HS
Haha! I could see FZ taking a flyer on Country Breakfast Jr. if he's still hanging around in rounds 4 or 5.
That's it! Happy Drafting, everybody!
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Sunday, June 7, 2020
Scouting the Draft: DrB's Final 2020 Draft Board
Before we get started, three new developments: 1. Mock drafts seem to be coalescing around Tyler Soderstrom to the Giants at #13 and this is coming from people who have contacts in the organization, so it's probably him if he's still on the board, unless they are trying to deke someone into jumping them in order to make someone else fall to them. Got that? Yeah, not sure I do either. 2. Right after Ed Howard's name showed up an a knowledgeable mock draft, his stock started dropping like a stone. Now I am really confused! Seems like a lot of scouts aren't all that with his tools, which I definitely see the point. I was impressed that even his detractors think he sticks at SS and I can see growth potential in the frame. We'll see. 3. Check out Roger Munter's podcast interview with the FABIO dude linked at the bottom of yesterday's MCC post. Seems FABIO absolutely hates Reid Detmers and LOVES Bryse Jarvis. Hey! I really dig that because I am not at all impressed by Detmers and also LOVE Bryse Jarvis. He definitely should be ranked in the top 15 and I would not complain at all if the Giants popped him at #13.
DrB's Final 2020 Draft Board(These are MY rankings. I will also try to do a mock draft in which I try to guess which players will actually get picked):
1. Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St). Best power and all-around bat in the draft by a wide margin which trumps the 1B positional limitation.
2. Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt). Better hit tool than Tork, but not a lock to stick at SS. If he doesn't, then the power comes up a bit short.
3. Max Meyer RHP, College(Minnesota). Small size but huge stuff. Some scouts think he as both the top FB AND top slider in the draft. Could probably pitch out of a MLB bullpen immediately.
4. Bryse Jarvis RHP, College(Duke). Huge physical breakout after conditioning program with corresponding jump in stuff and results. Another off-the-shelf college pitcher but one more likely to to be a MLB starter than Meyer. Oh, and his FABIO stat line is off the charts!
5. Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M). More classic pitcher size than Meyer or Jarvis and has great stuff. I'm not in love with the delivery.
6. Nick Gonzalez 2B, College(New Mexico St). Obvious comps to Keston Hiura and Nick Madrigal. Weak college competition and hitter-friendly environment. Success in Cape Cod League quiets those concerns.
7. Garrett Mitchell OF, College(UCLA). Might have best tools in entire draft but power has not shown up in games. Type 1 Diabetes should make teams thoroughly review medical reports.
8. Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia). Most projectable college pitcher body in the draft with great mix of stuff. Stat line not terrible but underwhelming compared to visuals. Still, the ceiling is sky high. Will likely require more development than Meyer, Jarvis or Lacy.
9. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia). Most physical pitcher in the draft, a real monster. Stuff and results have not been as impressive, but hey! FABIO really kind of likes him! Ditto Hancock on development, but again the ceiling is out of this world.
10. Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St). Switch-hitting defensive catcher with a plus bat. What's not to like here?
11. Heston Kjerstad OF, College(Arkansas). College production right up there with Tork and Martin, but scouts worry about the swing and K tendencies.
12. Tyler Soderstrom C, HS. Finally, our first HS player! Hit tool and power looks similar to other HS hitters, but I think he can stick at C. Lefty hitting catchers are crazy valuable.
13. Ed Howard SS, HS. We've got a peloton of HS hitters with minimal separation. I'll rank the guy who can stick at SS over the OF's, only one of whom is likely to stick in CF. Frame looks projectable in video although I have to admit I am less than overwhelmed by the tools.
14. Zac Veen OF, HS. Tall, lean HS OF draws comps to Christian Yelich which is probably extremely unfair to Veen. Main attraction if extreme projection in the frame.
15. Austin Hendrick OF, HS. Best current power of the HS studs, but has a loopy swing that scouts worry is K prone. Not much projection in the frame. Has arm to play RF.
16. Robert Hassell OF, HS. Sweetest swing of the HS studs. Less current power than Hendrick but if if comes, may be more usable due better hit tool and swing. Commitment to Vandy may be hard to break.
17. Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS. Last of the "Big Six" HS hitters. Has best speed of the group and Projects as a true CF with some limited power projection. Another Vandy commit.
18. Jared Kelley RHP, HS. First HS pitcher! I prefer Kelley's stout frame over Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko's projectability. All 3 have approximately equal current stuff.
19. Mick Abel RHP, HS. Combination of current stuff and projectability reminds me of Michael Kopech at same stage. Extreme TJ risk, but ceiling is incredible.
20. Nick Bitsko RHP, HS. Frame and stuff is comparable to Kelley and Abel, but more raw and less well known. Purely a projection pick which is dicy when you are talking HS pitchers.
21. Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma). Classic pitcher frame with solid MLB quality stuff. Appeared to be healthy and pitched well in small sample this year after missing time previous two seasons with injuries.
22. Bobby Miller RHP, College(Louisville). Saturday starter behind Detmers at Louisville but has a better body and stuff for the pros.
23. Reid Detmers LHP, College(Louisville). OK, I'll leave Detmers in at the end of my 1B tier. His college record is undeniable and he does have a beautiful curveball. It's just that his FABIO numbers appear to confirm my concerns that the stuff won't play in the pros.
24. Dillon Dingler C, College(Ohio St). Athletic college catcher who can hit and who runs fast enough to play CF.
25. Jordan Walker 3B, HS. Most physical position player in the draft. Built more like a basketball power forward. Reminds me a lot of Jo Adell from a couple of years ago.
26. Austin Wells C/1B, College(Arizona). Huge hit tool, maybe best in draft. A lot of scouts don't think he stays behind the plate. A team who thinks he can will value him a lot higher but the hit tool is so good it might not matter, especially later in the first round.
27. Kyle Nicolas RHP, College(Ball St). Physical beast with a supple arm and guess what? FABIO loves him too!
28. Ian Bedell RHP, College(Missouri). Might just have the best 4 pitch mix in the draft.
29. Chris McMahon RHP, College(Miami). Solid college starter whose stuff and physique project to the next level.
30. Slade Cecconi RHP, College(Miami). Another solid college starter with a MLB frame.
31. Franco Aleman RHP, JC. Extremely projectable frame with current mid-high 90's heat.
32. Justin Lange RHP, HS. Extremely projectable frame with present velocity.
33. Tanner Witt RHP, HS. Another highly projectable HS pitcher. May be a tough sign.
34. Ryan Hagenow RHP, HS. I am having a hard time figuring out why he is not ranking higher on draft boards. Another highly projectable frame with terrific present stuff.
35. Jared Shuster LHP, College(Wake Forest). Stock is rising late in the draft cycle and deservedly so.
36. Carmen Mlodzinski RHP, College(South Carolina). Big bodied College righty who can pound the zone.
37. Tanner Burns RHP, College(Auburn). High floor, lower ceiling college pitcher. Great competition in SEC.
38. Cole Henry RHP, College(LSU). Another SEC SP. Great size.
39. Alex Santos RHP, HS. Great body, great stuff.
40. Alejandro Rosario RHP, HS. On the small side, but with big stuff.
41. Nick Griffin LHP, HS. Projectable HS lefty. Gotta admit, after awhile they all start to look the same and you run out of things to say.
42. Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Clemson). 1B talent but worrisome injury history. FABIO less than enthusiastic to boot. Nice upside play for early round 2.
43. JT Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St). Out with TJ. A bit polarizing even before that, but again a nice upside play early in round 2.
44. Carson Tucker SS, HS. Stock seems to be rising. Brother of former Pirates first round pick Cole Tucker. Kind of a poor man's version of Ed Howard without loud tools and without a lot of projection. Projects to stick at SS though and that's not nothing. A thin demographic in this draft.
45. Dax Fulton LHP, HS. Tier 1B talent with very high ceiling out with TJ. Again, early round 2 is a great place to gamble on ceiling.
46. Robby Ashford OF, HS. Best athlete in the draft, IMO, but also a D1 college QB prospect committed to Oregon where he plans to play both sports. Very tough sign but has hinted that he could be persuaded to choose pro baseball with a high signing bonus. Potential opportunity for a team with flexibility in their bonus pool.
47. Justin Foscue 2B, College(Mississippi St). Bat first 2B. Fits into Keston Hiura/Nick Gonzalez mold. Great round 2 value with a high floor.
48. Mario Zabala OF, HS. Great size for a kid who is fast and athletic enough to play CF. Another big upside play.
49. Isaiah Greene OF, HS. Speedy CF prospect with projectability.
50. Chase Davis OF, HS. Projectable bat. Reminds me of Cal Mitchell from a couple of years ago.
51. Harold Coll SS, HS. Athletic toolsy SS who seems to be rising on some draft boards.
52. Nick Garcia RHP, College(Chapman). DIII program but D1 size and stuff.
53. Clayton Beeter RHP, College(Texas Tech). This might be too low for yet another big bodied college RHP who was a reliever in 2019 and emerged as an ace SP this year before the shutdown. Reportedly rising on draft boards.
54. Drew Romo C, HS. Advanced defensive C with a chance to hit.
55. Yohandy Morales 3B, HS. High ceiling corner bat.
56. Drew Bowser 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat. Committed to Stanford.
57. Coby Mayo 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat.
58. Enrique Bradfield CF, HS. Blazing speed but the bat needs to get stronger. Recent track record for this demographic is not encouraging, but there always seems to be a team that goes after pure speed in round 2.
59. Markevian Hence RHP, HS. Small pitcher with a dynamic arm. Name is at least a 70.
60. Cayden Wallace 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat.
61. Blaze Jordan 1B, HS. Country Breakfast Jr. Has been winning HR derbies since age 13. Very bad body. 1B/DH profile more valuable with expanded rosters and universal DH.
62. Christian Roa RHP, College(Texas A&M). Projectable college RHP with MLB size and arm.
63. CJ Van Eyk RHP, College(Florida St). Smallish college pitcher with big FB. Might be a reliever in the majors.
64. Nick Frasso RHP, College(Loyola Marymount). Projectable college pitcher.
65. Trent Palmer RHP, College(Jacksonville). Late Riser. Just 6'1" and throws with a lot of effort but has a solid 3-pitch mix and a stout frame which allows him to maintain velocity deep into games. FABIO loves him.
66. Aaron Sabato 1B, College(North Carolina). Good hit/bad body. Again, universal DH helps guys like him.
67. Hudson Haskin CF, College(Tulane). Athletic college CF who can stick in CF and has some projectability in the frame.
68. Alika Williams SS, College(Arizona State). Defensive SS with a projectable body.
69. Jordan Westburg SS, College(Mississippi St.). Pure projectability pick. 6'3" size gives him power projection but K rate is worrisome.
70. Casey Martin SS, College(Arkansas). Intriguing power/speed combo but struggles to make contact which has dropped his stock.
71. Zach DeLoach OF, College(Texas A&M). Hit just .181 in 2019 but came out smoking in 2020 with a .421 BA with 4 HR, 5 SB in 57 AB. Will teams trust the small sample? Has Cape Cod League credentials to back it up so this ranking might be way too low.
72. Nick Loftin SS, College(Ohio St). College SS whose stock seems to be rising, although I am not sure why. Appears to have average tools across the board.
73. Anthony Servideo SS, College(Mississippi). High motor college SS but has to sell out for power.
74. Carson Montgomery RHP, HS. Stout framed RHP with a Low-mid 90's FB. No projection in the frame but adequate present strength.
75. Cam Brown RHP, HS. Nice size for a pitcher at 6'3", 200 lbs. Present mid-90's FB. Limited projection.
76. Jared Jones RHP, HS. Live armed HS pitcher whose stock has fallen due to control/command issues.
77. Elijah Nunez OF, HS. Twitchy athlete with speed to play CF, but small at 5'10", 175 lbs.
78. Daniel Cabrera OF, College(LSU). Corner OF college bat who will likely be drafted much higher. I just feel like he has a AAA ceiling.
79. Parker Chavers OF, College(Coastal Carolina). Speedy CF prospect who has not played in 2020 due to injury.
80. Logan Allen LHP, College(FIU). Lots of K's in college but low velocity makes him more of a pitchability prospect.
81. Nick Swiney LHP, College(North Carolina St). Great 2002 numbers in small sample size. Pitchability prospect.
82. TJ McCants SS, HS. Raw but very toolsy. Reminds me of slightly bigger version of Grant McCray.
83. Masyn Winn WRHP, HS. Kind of forgot about him. Smallish but has an electric arm.
84. Seth Lonsway LHP, College(Ohio St). Lefty with premium stuff but prone to bouts of extreme wildness.
85. Jackson Wolf LHP, College(West Virginia). Tall lefty at 6'7" with kind of a herky-jerky delivery. Lots of upside but likely a lefty reliever in the pros.
86. Luke Little LHP, JC. Huge lefty at 6'8", 250 lbs. Reportedly has hit 105 MPH in a cage but sits more mid-90's although there is one reported sighting of a 102 in a game.
87. Michael Rothenberg C, College(Duke). Cerebral defensive C with a better bat than he's generally given credit for, IMO.
88. Beck Way LHP, JC. Power arm who might be lefty reliever in the pros.
89. Ricky Tiedemann LHP, HS. Extremely projectable HS lefty who has gotten some draft buzz.
90. Alerick Soularie OF, College(Tennessee). Quick bat with some speed and power.
91. Johhny Cuevas RHP, JC. Some late buzz for a high octane JC arm.
92. Alex Toral 1B, College(Miami). Just starting to unlock power potential. Bad body but the bat could be developed enough to justify his 1B/DH profile. Has a bit of a Yonder Alonso vibe to him.
93. Charez Butcher RHP, HS. Mid-90's FB with projectability. I tend to see IMG Academy kids as signable. Fangraphs comps frame to Raisel Iglesias. Yes, I will take that!
94. Hugh Fisher LHP, College(Vanderbilt). Tall lefty reliever expected to break out in 2020 but instead underwent TJ in fall of 2019. Might stay in school to try to raise his draft stock back to what it might have been with a 2020 breakout.
95. Joey Wiemer OF, College(Cincinnati). Very athletic and projectable but swing is very funky and probably won't play without serious revisions. Body comp is Jayson Werth.
OK, I'm out. I am sure I have missed someone really important and the Giants will draft 4-5 players I've never heard of before, but hey! I can only do so much! That's my final draft board and I'm sticking to it.
DrB's Final 2020 Draft Board(These are MY rankings. I will also try to do a mock draft in which I try to guess which players will actually get picked):
1. Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St). Best power and all-around bat in the draft by a wide margin which trumps the 1B positional limitation.
2. Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt). Better hit tool than Tork, but not a lock to stick at SS. If he doesn't, then the power comes up a bit short.
3. Max Meyer RHP, College(Minnesota). Small size but huge stuff. Some scouts think he as both the top FB AND top slider in the draft. Could probably pitch out of a MLB bullpen immediately.
4. Bryse Jarvis RHP, College(Duke). Huge physical breakout after conditioning program with corresponding jump in stuff and results. Another off-the-shelf college pitcher but one more likely to to be a MLB starter than Meyer. Oh, and his FABIO stat line is off the charts!
5. Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M). More classic pitcher size than Meyer or Jarvis and has great stuff. I'm not in love with the delivery.
6. Nick Gonzalez 2B, College(New Mexico St). Obvious comps to Keston Hiura and Nick Madrigal. Weak college competition and hitter-friendly environment. Success in Cape Cod League quiets those concerns.
7. Garrett Mitchell OF, College(UCLA). Might have best tools in entire draft but power has not shown up in games. Type 1 Diabetes should make teams thoroughly review medical reports.
8. Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia). Most projectable college pitcher body in the draft with great mix of stuff. Stat line not terrible but underwhelming compared to visuals. Still, the ceiling is sky high. Will likely require more development than Meyer, Jarvis or Lacy.
9. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia). Most physical pitcher in the draft, a real monster. Stuff and results have not been as impressive, but hey! FABIO really kind of likes him! Ditto Hancock on development, but again the ceiling is out of this world.
10. Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St). Switch-hitting defensive catcher with a plus bat. What's not to like here?
11. Heston Kjerstad OF, College(Arkansas). College production right up there with Tork and Martin, but scouts worry about the swing and K tendencies.
12. Tyler Soderstrom C, HS. Finally, our first HS player! Hit tool and power looks similar to other HS hitters, but I think he can stick at C. Lefty hitting catchers are crazy valuable.
13. Ed Howard SS, HS. We've got a peloton of HS hitters with minimal separation. I'll rank the guy who can stick at SS over the OF's, only one of whom is likely to stick in CF. Frame looks projectable in video although I have to admit I am less than overwhelmed by the tools.
14. Zac Veen OF, HS. Tall, lean HS OF draws comps to Christian Yelich which is probably extremely unfair to Veen. Main attraction if extreme projection in the frame.
15. Austin Hendrick OF, HS. Best current power of the HS studs, but has a loopy swing that scouts worry is K prone. Not much projection in the frame. Has arm to play RF.
16. Robert Hassell OF, HS. Sweetest swing of the HS studs. Less current power than Hendrick but if if comes, may be more usable due better hit tool and swing. Commitment to Vandy may be hard to break.
17. Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS. Last of the "Big Six" HS hitters. Has best speed of the group and Projects as a true CF with some limited power projection. Another Vandy commit.
18. Jared Kelley RHP, HS. First HS pitcher! I prefer Kelley's stout frame over Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko's projectability. All 3 have approximately equal current stuff.
19. Mick Abel RHP, HS. Combination of current stuff and projectability reminds me of Michael Kopech at same stage. Extreme TJ risk, but ceiling is incredible.
20. Nick Bitsko RHP, HS. Frame and stuff is comparable to Kelley and Abel, but more raw and less well known. Purely a projection pick which is dicy when you are talking HS pitchers.
21. Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma). Classic pitcher frame with solid MLB quality stuff. Appeared to be healthy and pitched well in small sample this year after missing time previous two seasons with injuries.
22. Bobby Miller RHP, College(Louisville). Saturday starter behind Detmers at Louisville but has a better body and stuff for the pros.
23. Reid Detmers LHP, College(Louisville). OK, I'll leave Detmers in at the end of my 1B tier. His college record is undeniable and he does have a beautiful curveball. It's just that his FABIO numbers appear to confirm my concerns that the stuff won't play in the pros.
24. Dillon Dingler C, College(Ohio St). Athletic college catcher who can hit and who runs fast enough to play CF.
25. Jordan Walker 3B, HS. Most physical position player in the draft. Built more like a basketball power forward. Reminds me a lot of Jo Adell from a couple of years ago.
26. Austin Wells C/1B, College(Arizona). Huge hit tool, maybe best in draft. A lot of scouts don't think he stays behind the plate. A team who thinks he can will value him a lot higher but the hit tool is so good it might not matter, especially later in the first round.
27. Kyle Nicolas RHP, College(Ball St). Physical beast with a supple arm and guess what? FABIO loves him too!
28. Ian Bedell RHP, College(Missouri). Might just have the best 4 pitch mix in the draft.
29. Chris McMahon RHP, College(Miami). Solid college starter whose stuff and physique project to the next level.
30. Slade Cecconi RHP, College(Miami). Another solid college starter with a MLB frame.
31. Franco Aleman RHP, JC. Extremely projectable frame with current mid-high 90's heat.
32. Justin Lange RHP, HS. Extremely projectable frame with present velocity.
33. Tanner Witt RHP, HS. Another highly projectable HS pitcher. May be a tough sign.
34. Ryan Hagenow RHP, HS. I am having a hard time figuring out why he is not ranking higher on draft boards. Another highly projectable frame with terrific present stuff.
35. Jared Shuster LHP, College(Wake Forest). Stock is rising late in the draft cycle and deservedly so.
36. Carmen Mlodzinski RHP, College(South Carolina). Big bodied College righty who can pound the zone.
37. Tanner Burns RHP, College(Auburn). High floor, lower ceiling college pitcher. Great competition in SEC.
38. Cole Henry RHP, College(LSU). Another SEC SP. Great size.
39. Alex Santos RHP, HS. Great body, great stuff.
40. Alejandro Rosario RHP, HS. On the small side, but with big stuff.
41. Nick Griffin LHP, HS. Projectable HS lefty. Gotta admit, after awhile they all start to look the same and you run out of things to say.
42. Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Clemson). 1B talent but worrisome injury history. FABIO less than enthusiastic to boot. Nice upside play for early round 2.
43. JT Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St). Out with TJ. A bit polarizing even before that, but again a nice upside play early in round 2.
44. Carson Tucker SS, HS. Stock seems to be rising. Brother of former Pirates first round pick Cole Tucker. Kind of a poor man's version of Ed Howard without loud tools and without a lot of projection. Projects to stick at SS though and that's not nothing. A thin demographic in this draft.
45. Dax Fulton LHP, HS. Tier 1B talent with very high ceiling out with TJ. Again, early round 2 is a great place to gamble on ceiling.
46. Robby Ashford OF, HS. Best athlete in the draft, IMO, but also a D1 college QB prospect committed to Oregon where he plans to play both sports. Very tough sign but has hinted that he could be persuaded to choose pro baseball with a high signing bonus. Potential opportunity for a team with flexibility in their bonus pool.
47. Justin Foscue 2B, College(Mississippi St). Bat first 2B. Fits into Keston Hiura/Nick Gonzalez mold. Great round 2 value with a high floor.
48. Mario Zabala OF, HS. Great size for a kid who is fast and athletic enough to play CF. Another big upside play.
49. Isaiah Greene OF, HS. Speedy CF prospect with projectability.
50. Chase Davis OF, HS. Projectable bat. Reminds me of Cal Mitchell from a couple of years ago.
51. Harold Coll SS, HS. Athletic toolsy SS who seems to be rising on some draft boards.
52. Nick Garcia RHP, College(Chapman). DIII program but D1 size and stuff.
53. Clayton Beeter RHP, College(Texas Tech). This might be too low for yet another big bodied college RHP who was a reliever in 2019 and emerged as an ace SP this year before the shutdown. Reportedly rising on draft boards.
54. Drew Romo C, HS. Advanced defensive C with a chance to hit.
55. Yohandy Morales 3B, HS. High ceiling corner bat.
56. Drew Bowser 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat. Committed to Stanford.
57. Coby Mayo 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat.
58. Enrique Bradfield CF, HS. Blazing speed but the bat needs to get stronger. Recent track record for this demographic is not encouraging, but there always seems to be a team that goes after pure speed in round 2.
59. Markevian Hence RHP, HS. Small pitcher with a dynamic arm. Name is at least a 70.
60. Cayden Wallace 3B, HS. Another high ceiling corner bat.
61. Blaze Jordan 1B, HS. Country Breakfast Jr. Has been winning HR derbies since age 13. Very bad body. 1B/DH profile more valuable with expanded rosters and universal DH.
62. Christian Roa RHP, College(Texas A&M). Projectable college RHP with MLB size and arm.
63. CJ Van Eyk RHP, College(Florida St). Smallish college pitcher with big FB. Might be a reliever in the majors.
64. Nick Frasso RHP, College(Loyola Marymount). Projectable college pitcher.
65. Trent Palmer RHP, College(Jacksonville). Late Riser. Just 6'1" and throws with a lot of effort but has a solid 3-pitch mix and a stout frame which allows him to maintain velocity deep into games. FABIO loves him.
66. Aaron Sabato 1B, College(North Carolina). Good hit/bad body. Again, universal DH helps guys like him.
67. Hudson Haskin CF, College(Tulane). Athletic college CF who can stick in CF and has some projectability in the frame.
68. Alika Williams SS, College(Arizona State). Defensive SS with a projectable body.
69. Jordan Westburg SS, College(Mississippi St.). Pure projectability pick. 6'3" size gives him power projection but K rate is worrisome.
70. Casey Martin SS, College(Arkansas). Intriguing power/speed combo but struggles to make contact which has dropped his stock.
71. Zach DeLoach OF, College(Texas A&M). Hit just .181 in 2019 but came out smoking in 2020 with a .421 BA with 4 HR, 5 SB in 57 AB. Will teams trust the small sample? Has Cape Cod League credentials to back it up so this ranking might be way too low.
72. Nick Loftin SS, College(Ohio St). College SS whose stock seems to be rising, although I am not sure why. Appears to have average tools across the board.
73. Anthony Servideo SS, College(Mississippi). High motor college SS but has to sell out for power.
74. Carson Montgomery RHP, HS. Stout framed RHP with a Low-mid 90's FB. No projection in the frame but adequate present strength.
75. Cam Brown RHP, HS. Nice size for a pitcher at 6'3", 200 lbs. Present mid-90's FB. Limited projection.
76. Jared Jones RHP, HS. Live armed HS pitcher whose stock has fallen due to control/command issues.
77. Elijah Nunez OF, HS. Twitchy athlete with speed to play CF, but small at 5'10", 175 lbs.
78. Daniel Cabrera OF, College(LSU). Corner OF college bat who will likely be drafted much higher. I just feel like he has a AAA ceiling.
79. Parker Chavers OF, College(Coastal Carolina). Speedy CF prospect who has not played in 2020 due to injury.
80. Logan Allen LHP, College(FIU). Lots of K's in college but low velocity makes him more of a pitchability prospect.
81. Nick Swiney LHP, College(North Carolina St). Great 2002 numbers in small sample size. Pitchability prospect.
82. TJ McCants SS, HS. Raw but very toolsy. Reminds me of slightly bigger version of Grant McCray.
83. Masyn Winn WRHP, HS. Kind of forgot about him. Smallish but has an electric arm.
84. Seth Lonsway LHP, College(Ohio St). Lefty with premium stuff but prone to bouts of extreme wildness.
85. Jackson Wolf LHP, College(West Virginia). Tall lefty at 6'7" with kind of a herky-jerky delivery. Lots of upside but likely a lefty reliever in the pros.
86. Luke Little LHP, JC. Huge lefty at 6'8", 250 lbs. Reportedly has hit 105 MPH in a cage but sits more mid-90's although there is one reported sighting of a 102 in a game.
87. Michael Rothenberg C, College(Duke). Cerebral defensive C with a better bat than he's generally given credit for, IMO.
88. Beck Way LHP, JC. Power arm who might be lefty reliever in the pros.
89. Ricky Tiedemann LHP, HS. Extremely projectable HS lefty who has gotten some draft buzz.
90. Alerick Soularie OF, College(Tennessee). Quick bat with some speed and power.
91. Johhny Cuevas RHP, JC. Some late buzz for a high octane JC arm.
92. Alex Toral 1B, College(Miami). Just starting to unlock power potential. Bad body but the bat could be developed enough to justify his 1B/DH profile. Has a bit of a Yonder Alonso vibe to him.
93. Charez Butcher RHP, HS. Mid-90's FB with projectability. I tend to see IMG Academy kids as signable. Fangraphs comps frame to Raisel Iglesias. Yes, I will take that!
94. Hugh Fisher LHP, College(Vanderbilt). Tall lefty reliever expected to break out in 2020 but instead underwent TJ in fall of 2019. Might stay in school to try to raise his draft stock back to what it might have been with a 2020 breakout.
95. Joey Wiemer OF, College(Cincinnati). Very athletic and projectable but swing is very funky and probably won't play without serious revisions. Body comp is Jayson Werth.
OK, I'm out. I am sure I have missed someone really important and the Giants will draft 4-5 players I've never heard of before, but hey! I can only do so much! That's my final draft board and I'm sticking to it.
Saturday, June 6, 2020
State of the Phillies
The Phillies are another legacy NL franchise having fielded a team under the current name since 1890. Over that time they have won 7 World Series Championships and made the postseason 14 times. Their last championship was in 2008 and last playoff appearance in 2011. They went through a rebuild and have recently added veteran free agents in an effort to accelerate their contending timetable.
Ownership:
Principle and control owner of the Phillies is John C Middleton, a scion of the John Middleton Tobacco Co which he sold in 2007 for $2.9 Billion. Since then, Middleton has concentrated on his involvement with the Phillies as well as multiple philanthropic efforts, most notably Project HOME to combat homelessness. So, I guess it's a mixed bag here: Tobacco? Bad! Fighting homelessness? Good!
Middleton has had an active role in managing the Phillies most notably in a commitment to use of analytics by hiring GM Matt Klentak who in turn hired perhaps the most vocal analytics-oriented manager in Gabe Kapler. Kapler had a rocky tenure as manager and Middleton reportedly overruled Klentak and forced Kapler's firing in favor of veteran manager Joe Girardi while Kapler joined his baseball BFF, Farhan Zaidi, in San Francisco. Middleton's other major impact on the Giants was his singleminded pursuit of Bryce Harper which was probably the deciding factor in Harper choosing the Phillies over the Giants after the 2018 season.
Grade A-
Management:
Team President Andy MacPhail is a long time respected baseball executive. It's not completely clear what direction GM Matt Klentak is taking the team which may be clouded by involvement of ownership, but his reputation is based on SABR analytics. Joe Girardi is a widely respected field Manager.
Grade B.
Current Roster:
Starting Eight: J.T. Realmuto C, Rhys Hoskins 1B, Scott Kingery 2B, Jean Segura 3B, Didi Gregorius SS, Andrew McCutchen LF, Adam Haseley CF, Bryce Harper RF.
Bench: Andrew Knapp C, Josh Harrison IF, Neil Walker IF, Jay Bruce 1B/OF, Roman Quinn OF.
Starting Rotation: Aaron Nola RHP, Zack Wheeler RHP, Jake Arrieta RHP, Zach Eflin RHP, Nick Pivetta RHP.
Bullpen: Hector Neris RHP(Closer), Seranthony Dominguez RHP(IL?), Jose Alvarez LHP, Adam Morgan LHP, Victor Arano RHP, Tommy Hunter RHP, Francisco Liriano LHP, Ranger Suarez LHP.
This is a contending lineup but the rotation is shaky at best after Nola and Wheeler and the bullpen is subpar for a contending team.
Grade B-
Farm System: The painfully slow development of 2016 #1 overall draft pick, Mickey Moniak, is still holding this system back, but it's still probably too early to give up on him. The Phils have had better success with college prospects in the last 3 drafts including 3B/1B Alec Bohm and SS Bryson Stott. They also have several promising pitching prospects from the international market as well as #2 prospect Spencer Howard. So, it's at least an average system which should provide a steady flow of MLB players over the next 3-5 years.
Grade B.
Scouting the Draft: Where Do Stars Come From?
So, here's a bit of original "research" if you can call it that. I decided to look up the top batting and pitching performers by fWAR in MLB for 2019 and see where they came from in terms of the draft. Here's what I found:
Batters(Top 60): College- 22, High School-17, JC- 2, International- 19. Breaking it down into top 30 and #31-60, the ratios are essentially the same.
Pitchers(Top 60): College-26(including top 5), High School- 20, JC- 1, International- 13. If you take out the top 5, which is admittedly an extremely important subset, it's very close to even between college and high school.
There is likely a greater comfort level with college players since there is a longer observation period, but good scouts should be able to judge who is the best player regardless of whether they are HS or college.
Conclusion: Trust your scouts and draft the best player available!
Thursday, June 4, 2020
State of the Mets
The Mets have always been and probably will always be New York's "other" MLB team. Still, when you are playing in the biggest, densest market that's pretty rarified air that most other teams are jealous of. So, how is it the Mets have had to pinch payroll pennies for lo these many years? Let me introduce you to the Wilpon family.
Ownership: Fred Wilpon was a high school teammate of Sandy Koufax and played college baseball. His wife was once Branch Rickey's secretary. Wilpon made a lot of money in the bottom-feeder real estate market and bought his first 1% stake in the Mets in 1980 which he gradually expanded to sole ownership in 2002. Details are murky but depending on who you believe, the Wilpon family invested a lot of deferred money from player salaries with Ponzi schemer, Bernie Madoff as well as in another Ponzi scheme. This put the team in a financial bind that has haunted it ever since. As recently as the last 6 months, a deal to sell the team to hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, yes the one who once paid a $1.8 billion insider trading fine, fell through. BTW, did you know the largest insider trading case in history involved a failed Alzheimer's Disease drug being developed by Eli Lilly? Look it up. Recent reports have none other than Alex Rodriguez and Jennifer Lopez trying to find enough investors to buy the team.
Grade F.
Management:
The Mets baseball operations were run by Sandy Alderson, one of the better executives in MLB from 2010-2018. In 2018, the Mets hired a player agent, Brodie Van Wagenen as GM raising eyebrows around the league. Van Wagenen almost immediately traded his top prospect, Jerrad Kelenic, to the Mariners for one of his former clients, Robinson Cano, who has a large salary and was clearly well into the downside of his career. In fairness the trade also brought back the top Closer in baseball, but is widely seen as a disaster trade by most analysts.
The Mets hired Carlos Beltran to be their manager after the 2019 season but he was fired before managing any games due to playing a central role in the Astros sign stealing scandal. Beltran was replaced by Luis Rojas(Alou), Felipe Alou's son who also has not managed any regular season games due to the COVID 19 shutdown. Rojas has managed in the Mets farm system since 2006 and is highly regarded.
Grade D+( but with upside).
Current Roster:
Starting Eight: Wilson Ramos C, Pete Alonso 1B, Robinson Cano 2B, Jeff McNeil 3B, Amed Rosario SS, JD Davis LF, Brandon Nimmo CF, Michael Conforto RF.
Bench: Tomas Nido C, Dominic Smith IF, Jed Lowrie IF, Jarrett Parker OF, Jake Marisnek OF, (Yoenis Cespedes?).
Starting Rotation: Jake DeGrom RHP, Marcus Stroman RHP, Rick Porcello RHP, Michael Wacha RHP, Steven Matz LHP, (Noah Syndergaard- TJ surgery).
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz RHP(Closer), Seth Lugo RHP, Dellin Betances RHP, Jeurys Familia RHP, Justin Wilson LHP, Brad Brach RHP, Robert Gsellman RHP, Chasen Shreve LHP.
Losing Thor to TJ was a big blow, but the overall pitching is still deep and strong. Pete Alonso came out of nowhere to hit 50 HR's last season. Can he keep that up? Brandon Nimmo is another rising star. Despite the loss of Thor, they should contend if we have a season.
Grade B
Farm System:
The Mets top 3 prospects per MLB Pipeline, Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez and Andres Gimenez, are all million dollar international bonus babies. Recent drafts have favored high risk/high ceiling HS prospects such as Brett Baty, Matthew Allan and Mark Vientos. It's a solid system and might be the best in baseball if they still had Kelenic.
Grade B
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Scouting the Draft: Round Two Tier
Note: Dylan Crews OF, HS has reportedly withdrawn from the draft to honor his commitment to LSU.
Here is a list of players I would consider drafting in Round 2 broken down by demographic:
College Hitters:
Justin Foscue 2B
Jordan Westburg SS
Nick Loftin SS
Aaron Sabato 1B
Freddy Zamora SS
Daniel Cabrera OF
Casey Martin SS
Parker Chavers OF
Anthony Servideo SS
Zach Deloach OF
Alika Williams SS
Hudson Haskin CF
College Pitchers:
Clayton Beeter RHP
CJ Van Eyk RHP
Christian Roa RHP
Nick Swiney LHP
Logan Allen LHP
Nick Frasso RHP
Nick Garcia RHP
JT Ginn RHP
High School Hitters:
Chase Davis OF
Drew Romo C
Cayden Wallace 3B
Drew Bowser 3B
Elijah Nunez OF
Yohandy Morales 3B
Robby Ashford OF
Harold Coll SS
Blaze Jordan 1B
Enrique Bradfield
Mario Zabala OF
Coby Mayo 3B
Isaiah Greene OF
High School Pitchers:
Dax Fulton LHP
Carson Montgomery RHP
Cam Brown RHP
Markevian Hence RHP
Jared Jones RHP
Most of the names listed here are potential targets for the Giants two compensation picks at #68 and #69, although I believe there is a real chance that several names I have listed as 1C's could fall that far. Of course, once you get past #49, signability becomes a concern, especially for the HS talent. I will say this, IMO, the future of college sports is even less certain than professional right now so I'm not at all sure the right move for these kids is to skip the draft and go to school, although going to school is never a totally bad thing.
He is probably unsignable outside the first round and he's too much of a risk to go that high, but I am obsessed with Robby Ashford, OF. Most athletic player in the draft and it's not really that close. If a team, "cough", has some room to play with signing bonuses and can find a way to offer close to first round money in round 2, they should definitely kick the tires.
Likewise, Dax Fulton LHP, who is out with TJ surgery, has a high enough ceiling he makes a nice upside play in round 2. I would favor him over JT Ginn in round 2 because I think the ceiling is higher.
Although the Giants biggest organizational need is pitching, the most intriguing names for the compensation picks are found in the HS hitters list. If they came away with 2 players out of the above list for those slots, I really couldn't complain.
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
State of the Braves
The Atlanta Braves MLB team is the descendent of the Boston Braves, an original NL club. The Boston Braves moved to Milwaukee and then later to Atlanta where they have remained since 1966.
Ownership:
The Braves are currently owned by Liberty Media, a company which has bought and sold multiple media companies but currently has 3 divisions: The Braves, Sirius XM and Formula 1. I am not aware of any outstanding positive or negative things Liberty has done in relationship to the Braves except for the questionable need to build a new stadium in the suburbs not all that long after they had moved into Turner Field.
Grade B
Management:
Alex Anthopolous is a widely respected GM who previously GM'd for the Toronto Blue Jays. He took after the organization was punished heavily for cheating in the international player market under previous GM John Coppolella.
Manager Brian Snitker has been highly successful since taking over for Fredi Gonzalez after the 2016 season. Snitker won NL Manager of the Year in 2018 and Sporting News Manager of the Year in 2018 and 2019.
Grade A.
Current Roster:
Starting Eight: Travis d'Arnaud C, Freddie Freeman 1B, Ozzie Albies 2B, Johan Camargo 3B, Dansby Swanson SS, Marcell Ozuna LF, Ender Inciarte CF, Ronald Acuna Jr. RF.
Bench: Tyler Flowers C, Adeiny Hechavarria IF, Austin Riley IF, Adam Duvall OF, Nick Markakis OF.
Starting Rotation: Mike Soroka RHP, Mike Foltynewicz RHP, Max Fried LHP, Cole Hamels LHP, Felix Hernandez RHP.
Bullpen: Mark Melancon RHP(Closer), Will Smith LHP, Shane Greene RHP, Luke Jackson RHP, Darren O'Day RHP, Chris Rusin LHP.
There is lots of talent here. Ronald Acuna Jr is already one of the top 5 players in the game and came this close to a 40-40 season. Freddie Freeman is in the conversation for best hitter in the game. The Braves appear set in the middle infield for years to come. The pitching is more iffy. Will the greybeards at the back of the rotation buy time for more of their young pitchers like Kyle Wright develop? Melancon is obviously a shaky Closer. Is Will Smith going to have to move back into the Closer role?
Grade B+
Christian Pache OF and Drew Waters OF are the top two prospects. Both should by in the Braves OF with Ronald Acuna by 2021. #'s 3 and 4, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright, both have high ceilings but need to break through. Last year's first rounder, Shea Langeliers C, is #5, Bryse Wilson RHP is #6 and Braden Shewmake SS is #7.
Grade B+
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