I thought I would do a series of bios and scouting reports on some of the prospects who might be available for the Giants to draft in 2013. With the draft order set for the first round and set for everything but some possible trades of supplemental round picks and a FA or two re-signing with their team, the later rounds are close to set, at least close enough to look at players who might be available in that general area of the draft. Of course, it's easiest to project players for the first round, but as we go along, we'll try to find hidden gems who could be good pickups later in the draft. I think we did a pretty good job of that in 2012.
Overall, the 2013 draft is shaping up to look similar to the 2012 which has been labeled by many observers as relatively weak, but I think will prove to be underrated. One thing you have to understand when reading about a draft is that most draft experts rate a draft based on the top 5-10 picks, and there are very good reasons for that. What I find interesting about the 2012 and 2013 drafts is that while the top 5-10 picks are indeed relatively weak, teams found and will find prospects that are almost as good as the top picks as late as the 2'nd and even third rounds.
Ordinarily, you would not want to be holding a top pick in a year like these, because you would be spending $$$ on a player who is not much better than one you could get for a lower bonus much later in the draft. With the new bonus cap rules, though, teams with high picks can do what the Astros did and draft a player who will sign for significantly under slot and then use the leftover money to draft overslot players later in the draft. This proved to be the likely best strategy for the 2012 draft and 2013 will likely be similar. On the other hand, if you have a year in which the top 2 or 3 picks are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack such as a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, a team might want to use the lions share of their bonus cap to pay the top pick and then draft college seniors with the rest of the top 10 picks. Drafting as late as the Giants have in the last few drafts takes away the luxury of moving money around in the draft, mostly because there is not much money to move around! In this situation, it's probably better to just go vanilla and take the best player available at each spot.
The Giants have been careful to avoid losing draft picks in recent years and with changes in free agency rules that is likely to be the case in 2013 too. I did raise my eyebrows just a tad when I saw a note on MLBTR yesterday that the Giants may have interest in signing Nick Swisher who was offered a qualifying contract by the Yankees. Swisher does not seem like a great fit for AT&T Park to me and that may keep him from signing with the Giants even if they are interested, but if he were to sign with the Giants, they would lose the 27'th pick in the draft, which I suppose is a small price to pay for a solid MLB player like Swisher.
The first prospect to catch my eye in early draft prognostication who seems to be hovering on the fringes of the first round and thus might be available for the Giants to draft is HS RHP Chris Oakley. You all know how much I like big pitchers and Oakley is certainly big, listed at 6'8", 230 lbs. Oakley is from St. Augustine Prep in New Jersey. He is committed to North Carolina, so could be a bit tough to sign. His BD is 8/20/1994, so will turn 19 shortly after the draft, although I don't worry about age as much with pitchers.
The scouting report on Oakley is a fastball that runs 89-92 and touches 94-95. He has projection for more velocity in the future. He has a pretty good bender already that projects as a possible plus pitch and he's working on a split-change.
From videos I've seen, he is very well proportioned for a big, tall kid. He has a very simple, upright delivery with a short stride that he seems to repeat well. The uprightness of the delivery gives his pitches a nice downhill plane. He might be able to add velocity with a longer stride and more drive in his legs, but would he lose command?
There are multiple videos available on Youtube. I'd urge everybody to check them out and make your own judgements about him. I would be happy to see his name next to the Giants at #27 on draft day. There are many other players that would make me happy though.
I have to acknowledge Matt Grabusky and Big League Futures for much of the information for this writeup.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Thoughts on Brandon Crawford
One of the many joys of watching Giants baseball in 2012 was watching Brandon Crawford blossom in front of our eyes. Yesterday, there was an article on Fangraphs/Rotographs dismissing Brandon as a fantasy player which did not really do him justice. Now, I'm not saying I'm going to draft Brandon Crawford in my 10 team league next spring, but that does not mean he is not on an upward career trajectory or that he should be forgotten about in deeper leagues.
Crawford played solid defense in 2011, but struggled mightily at the plate. At times, he was almost an automatic out. Still, when the Giants traded for Orlando Cabrera, Giants fans were soon more than happy to look the other way with Brandon's offensive struggles if they could just get his defense back on the field. Not only did he get back on the field, he hit a respectable .256 in the month of September.
The Giants made an offseason decision to not go outside the organization to fill the SS position and put their faith in Crawford. They wanted his defense at the position and any offense he gave would be extra. His preseason projections came in with BA's in the .230-.240 range.
Over the course of the 2012 season, Crawford did play solid defense that got even better as the season progressed. He also outperformed his projections, hitting .248 despite hitting in the 8 hole all season. Skeptics, including the guy who wrote the Rotographs piece, point to poorer K and BB numbers from 2012, but season long numbers don't tell the whole story. When a player is in the early stages of their career, progression in monthly splits means something and Crawford did progress. Here are his monthly BA splits: Mar/Apr- .203, May- .231, June- .260, July- .235, Aug.- .281 and Sept.- .288.
OK, maybe BA is not your cup of tea. Let's take a look at those K and BB rates that were supposed to be so bad. His 2011 rates were 14.1% K and 10.5% BB. Those are very good numbers and reflect the kind of quality AB's we saw from him despite his low numbers. His overall 2012 numbers were 20.0% K and 6.9% BB. Clearly not nearly as good as 2011. Let's take a closer look: In the first two months of the season, he struck out 43 times and walked just 9 in 174 PA's. Over the last 4 months of the season he struck out 52 times against 24 BB's in 302 PA. Over the last 4 months, his 17.2% K rate against an 8% BB rate is significantly better than his overall season numbers and not nearly as far off his 2011 numbers when his actual production at the plate was not as good.
Let's also take another look at his defensive numbers. For most of the season, Crawford hovered in the upper part of the middle of the pack in defensive SS rankings. His defense down the stretch was noticeably better than in the first half of the season and the numbers bear that out. He finished the season with a UZR of 8.7 which is 6'th in all of baseball and he finished 5'th in UZR/150 at 9.7. In order to vault over at least 5 or 6 SS's in the last 4-6 weeks of the season, he had to have performed much better than his final UZR numbers in the process.
There is strong sabermetric support for the idea that Brandon Crawford made significant gains during his first full season of MLB play and his career trajectory is still on a steep upward swing. An advance in 2013 to a BA in the .260-.280 range along with concurrent improvement in his secondary numbers appears to be a perfectly reasonable possibility. Shortstops who hit .260-.280 start to have fantasy relevance in deeper leagues, but more importantly, Crawford promises to contribute even more to the Giants winning ways next year, both on offense as well as defense.
PS: Crawford has approximately equal L-R splits so as he improves his overall numbers, there should be no reason to platoon him
Crawford played solid defense in 2011, but struggled mightily at the plate. At times, he was almost an automatic out. Still, when the Giants traded for Orlando Cabrera, Giants fans were soon more than happy to look the other way with Brandon's offensive struggles if they could just get his defense back on the field. Not only did he get back on the field, he hit a respectable .256 in the month of September.
The Giants made an offseason decision to not go outside the organization to fill the SS position and put their faith in Crawford. They wanted his defense at the position and any offense he gave would be extra. His preseason projections came in with BA's in the .230-.240 range.
Over the course of the 2012 season, Crawford did play solid defense that got even better as the season progressed. He also outperformed his projections, hitting .248 despite hitting in the 8 hole all season. Skeptics, including the guy who wrote the Rotographs piece, point to poorer K and BB numbers from 2012, but season long numbers don't tell the whole story. When a player is in the early stages of their career, progression in monthly splits means something and Crawford did progress. Here are his monthly BA splits: Mar/Apr- .203, May- .231, June- .260, July- .235, Aug.- .281 and Sept.- .288.
OK, maybe BA is not your cup of tea. Let's take a look at those K and BB rates that were supposed to be so bad. His 2011 rates were 14.1% K and 10.5% BB. Those are very good numbers and reflect the kind of quality AB's we saw from him despite his low numbers. His overall 2012 numbers were 20.0% K and 6.9% BB. Clearly not nearly as good as 2011. Let's take a closer look: In the first two months of the season, he struck out 43 times and walked just 9 in 174 PA's. Over the last 4 months of the season he struck out 52 times against 24 BB's in 302 PA. Over the last 4 months, his 17.2% K rate against an 8% BB rate is significantly better than his overall season numbers and not nearly as far off his 2011 numbers when his actual production at the plate was not as good.
Let's also take another look at his defensive numbers. For most of the season, Crawford hovered in the upper part of the middle of the pack in defensive SS rankings. His defense down the stretch was noticeably better than in the first half of the season and the numbers bear that out. He finished the season with a UZR of 8.7 which is 6'th in all of baseball and he finished 5'th in UZR/150 at 9.7. In order to vault over at least 5 or 6 SS's in the last 4-6 weeks of the season, he had to have performed much better than his final UZR numbers in the process.
There is strong sabermetric support for the idea that Brandon Crawford made significant gains during his first full season of MLB play and his career trajectory is still on a steep upward swing. An advance in 2013 to a BA in the .260-.280 range along with concurrent improvement in his secondary numbers appears to be a perfectly reasonable possibility. Shortstops who hit .260-.280 start to have fantasy relevance in deeper leagues, but more importantly, Crawford promises to contribute even more to the Giants winning ways next year, both on offense as well as defense.
PS: Crawford has approximately equal L-R splits so as he improves his overall numbers, there should be no reason to platoon him
Comment: Sabermetrics and Political Forecasting
I have steadfastly avoided off topic posts on this site and fully intend to continue to do so. There is a fascinating subplot to the just completed Presidential election that has a baseball connection which I would like to call people's attention to, if you are not already aware of it. The discussion will be limited to the science of politics. I will strive to keep it non-partisan. Policy discussions will be avoided.
Nate Silver is a baseball sabermetrician, or at least he was one until recently. He made a name for himself in baseball sabermetric circles by developing a forecasting system for player performance that he called by an acronym, PECOTA(Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). In 2003, Silver became a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus and soon after sold PECOTA to BP for a partnership interest. These projections are eagerly awaited each spring by baseball fans, possibly more so by fantasy baseball players hoping for an edge in their fantasy drafts.
In 2007, Silver began writing analyses and predictions of the 2008 Presidential campaign under the pseudonym "Poblano" for the Daily Kos, a liberal political website. In March of 2008, he established his own website FiveThirtyEight.com and revealed his true identity later that summer. He quickly gained notoriety in the field of politics when he correctly predicted the outcome of the Presidential contest in 49 of 50 states and in all 35 Senate races.
Silver left Baseball Prospectus in 2009 to devote full time to his political blog which was licensed for publication by the New York Times with a new name: FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. He continued to publish regular updates through the 2010 mid-term elections, the primary season of the 2012 election, and the 2012 election itself.
Silver is an open supporter of Barack Obama and reportedly has even shared information with the Obama campaign, at least in the 2008 election cycle, but insists that his methodology is based on science rather than opinion. He has been particularly critical of the methodology of the Rasmussen poll which has consistently favored Republican candidates. His criticism is based on Rasmussen's methodology which tends to select and older, non-tech savvy population than polls which use more modern means of communication than just telephones. In terms of results, Rasmussen has been spectacularly wrong in both 2008 and 2012, so Silver certainly has results to validate his criticisms.
One of the more interesting sideshows of the 2012 election came when former Republican congressman Joe Scarborough, now a commentator for MSNBC and host of a political talk show called Morning Joe, called out Silver who was confidently predicting a repeat win for Barack Obama saying it was impossible for anyone to call the election as anything more than a tossup. Silver responded by offering to bet $1000 to be donated by the loser to the Red Cross that his forecast would prove to be correct. Scarborough countered by offering a joint donation with Silver of $2000 to the Red Cross. Silver responded by upping the ante to $2000. The bet offer landed him in hot water with the Editor of the NY Times, the parent company for his blog.
As election day approached, Silver became increasingly confident of an Obama win and posted a 90.9% chance of of the President being re-elected. In the end, Silver accurately predicted the winner in all 50 states(I believe Florida is still unofficial, but appears to be safely in the Obama column at this time), while Ramussen Reports missed 6 of 9 swing states.
Nate Silver appears to be a restless soul and has indicated that he does not expect to continue political analysis for the rest of his life, or even into the near future. He has already delved into other areas such as quantifying the "Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York." He has also indicated some interest in returning to his first love, baseball.
Bloggers Note: By way of disclosure, most of the details of for this post were found in Wikipedia, verified from my own memory of things I have read elsewhere.
I will accept comments that are limited to the science of politics, and of course, baseball. I will delete comments on political opinion, policy and any and all rants or diatribes. This is not a political opinion website. My reason for posting this is to draw attention to the connection between the statistical analysis of baseball and politics.
Here's an interesting factoid I read today: Mitt Romney got exactly the same percentage of the white vote in this election as George H W Bush got in the 1988 election when he beat Mike Dukakis in a landslide.
Factoid #2: This is the first time the United States has had 3 consecutive 2-term Presidents since Jefferson, Madison and Monroe!
Nate Silver is a baseball sabermetrician, or at least he was one until recently. He made a name for himself in baseball sabermetric circles by developing a forecasting system for player performance that he called by an acronym, PECOTA(Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). In 2003, Silver became a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus and soon after sold PECOTA to BP for a partnership interest. These projections are eagerly awaited each spring by baseball fans, possibly more so by fantasy baseball players hoping for an edge in their fantasy drafts.
In 2007, Silver began writing analyses and predictions of the 2008 Presidential campaign under the pseudonym "Poblano" for the Daily Kos, a liberal political website. In March of 2008, he established his own website FiveThirtyEight.com and revealed his true identity later that summer. He quickly gained notoriety in the field of politics when he correctly predicted the outcome of the Presidential contest in 49 of 50 states and in all 35 Senate races.
Silver left Baseball Prospectus in 2009 to devote full time to his political blog which was licensed for publication by the New York Times with a new name: FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. He continued to publish regular updates through the 2010 mid-term elections, the primary season of the 2012 election, and the 2012 election itself.
Silver is an open supporter of Barack Obama and reportedly has even shared information with the Obama campaign, at least in the 2008 election cycle, but insists that his methodology is based on science rather than opinion. He has been particularly critical of the methodology of the Rasmussen poll which has consistently favored Republican candidates. His criticism is based on Rasmussen's methodology which tends to select and older, non-tech savvy population than polls which use more modern means of communication than just telephones. In terms of results, Rasmussen has been spectacularly wrong in both 2008 and 2012, so Silver certainly has results to validate his criticisms.
One of the more interesting sideshows of the 2012 election came when former Republican congressman Joe Scarborough, now a commentator for MSNBC and host of a political talk show called Morning Joe, called out Silver who was confidently predicting a repeat win for Barack Obama saying it was impossible for anyone to call the election as anything more than a tossup. Silver responded by offering to bet $1000 to be donated by the loser to the Red Cross that his forecast would prove to be correct. Scarborough countered by offering a joint donation with Silver of $2000 to the Red Cross. Silver responded by upping the ante to $2000. The bet offer landed him in hot water with the Editor of the NY Times, the parent company for his blog.
As election day approached, Silver became increasingly confident of an Obama win and posted a 90.9% chance of of the President being re-elected. In the end, Silver accurately predicted the winner in all 50 states(I believe Florida is still unofficial, but appears to be safely in the Obama column at this time), while Ramussen Reports missed 6 of 9 swing states.
Nate Silver appears to be a restless soul and has indicated that he does not expect to continue political analysis for the rest of his life, or even into the near future. He has already delved into other areas such as quantifying the "Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York." He has also indicated some interest in returning to his first love, baseball.
Bloggers Note: By way of disclosure, most of the details of for this post were found in Wikipedia, verified from my own memory of things I have read elsewhere.
I will accept comments that are limited to the science of politics, and of course, baseball. I will delete comments on political opinion, policy and any and all rants or diatribes. This is not a political opinion website. My reason for posting this is to draw attention to the connection between the statistical analysis of baseball and politics.
Here's an interesting factoid I read today: Mitt Romney got exactly the same percentage of the white vote in this election as George H W Bush got in the 1988 election when he beat Mike Dukakis in a landslide.
Factoid #2: This is the first time the United States has had 3 consecutive 2-term Presidents since Jefferson, Madison and Monroe!
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Hot Tips
Gary Brown is finishing his AFL stint strongly. Last night he went 3 for 6 to raise his BA to .333.
Joe Panik went 0 for 5. Observation: Prospects with at least AA experience performed better in the AFL.
LOL Yankees dumpster diving players waived by the Giants. Eli Whiteside is now a Yankee.
Free content article on BA, a cautionary tale about emphasizing HS prospects in the draft and how that approach may have contributed to the decline and fall of the Boston Red Sox.
Also on BA, a list of 2013 minor league FA's. No real surprises from the Giants and nobody they can't live without.
There has been a flurry of mock drafts for 2013 now that the draft order has been set. Here's a few just to give you an idea of what type of player may be available to the Giants at #27(I think they are going to get a good player):
Big League Futures V.1: Jonah Wesely, LHP, HS. Big hard throwing LHP.
Big League Futures Composite Mock: Marco Gonzalez, LHP, Gonzaga. Don't know much about him.
Bleacher Report: Oscar Mercado, SS, HS. I'd be ecstatic if the Giants drafted him, but likely will go higher. No single outstanding tool but solid all around and can stick at SS.
Through the Fence Baseball: Brett Morales, RHP, HS. Hard throwing HS arm. Love this kid, but some other mocks have him going higher, although he is the only prospect listed at #27 on multiple mocks.
Draftsite: Brian Ragira, 1B/OF Stanford. Love the power potential. His swing reminds me of Hank Aaron. Very wristy. Stanford tends to ruin hitters, though.
Any other news out there?
PS: Ricky Oropesa goes 3 for 4, HR(2), BB. BA= .250 in today's AFL game.
PS: Ricky Oropesa goes 3 for 4, HR(2), BB. BA= .250 in today's AFL game.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Comment: Brian Sabean's Place in Baseball History
Brian Sabean has been the General Manager of the San Francisco Giants for the past 15 years. During that time, I think it is safe to say that he has been one of the more polarizing figures in Giants history, possibly even in baseball history. Throughout most of baseball history, except for a handful of groundbreaking thought leaders, most GM's labored behind the scenes out of the public eye receiving little praise for success and little blame for failure. Success and failure in the field of general managing is difficult to quantify because there are so many confounding factors, such as payroll constraints and meddlesome ownership, and because many of the activities that characterize a good general manager, such as building and maintaining a good scouting staff often bear fruit long after the GM who executed these duties has retired or moved on to anther organization. GM's serve at the pleasure of team ownership, a notoriously fickle, self-centered, short-sighted and meddlesome lot. Brian Sabean is a bit unusual in that he is one of a very few GM's with a long enough tenure at one team to be able to assess his full body of work, and even then the story gets murky at times.
Brian Sabean's career in baseball management started out in scouting for the New York Yankees and he rose to the position of Scouting Director with them and played a major role in scouting and drafting the nucleus of the great Yankee teams of the late 1990's. In 1993 he was hired by Giants GM Bob Quinn to be scouting director and assistant GM and succeeded Quinn as GM in 1997. At the time, the Giants had suffered through losing seasons 5 of the previous 6 seasons despite the presence of Barry Bonds on the team since 1993. Sabean immediately set about to distribute payroll more evenly throughout the roster and traded Matt Williams for several players including Jeff Kent. He used the draft and farm system as a source of trading chips to acquire multiple players such as JT Snow, Livan Hernandez, Robb Nen, Jason Schmidt and others who would help send the Giants into postseason competition multiple times over the next several seasons including a bitter World Series loss to the Angels in 2002.
With Barry Bonds career moving into its final stages, Sabean foresaw a post-Bonds team built around homegrown pitching and had a cadre of young pitchers in place headed by first round draft picks Kurt Ainsworth and Jerome Williams plus 4'th round pick Jesse Foppert known to Giants internet fans as AFW. In a run of monumentally bad luck, the Bonds era ended prematurely when Barry got a nasty infection in his knee after arthroscopic surgery and all 3 of Sabean's prized young pitchers careers were cut short by injuries and poor conditioning. Sabean desperately tried to hold things together by signing multiple veteran free agents at the expense of draft picks, the whole thing collapsed into 90+ loss seasons in 2007 and 2008. Big money contracts to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand with poor on-field production from these players helped to fuel fan anger and frustration. Calls from internet based Giants fans and local media for Sabean to be replaced as GM mounted.
Giants ownership refused to fire Sabean, though, and instead gave him a contract extension. Meanwhile, Sabean stuck to his plan for the post Bonds era by continuing to draft and develop pitchers such as Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner. After the 2007 draft, he hired John Barr a more offensive minded scout, away from the Dodgers to be the his scouting director and Barr drafted Buster Posey in his first draft in 2008. The Giants improved to 88 wins in 2009 and broke through with their first World Series Championship in 2010 and repeated that feat in 2012 largely on the strength of the young pitching core that Sabean constructed after the end of Barry Bonds' career and the unfortunate collapse of AFW.
So, where does all this leave Brian Sabean in the history of baseball GMs? As I said earlier, GM's have only recently operated in the public spotlight as the Information Age has made their work more accessible to the public and the rise of sabermetrics and fantasy baseball has created millions of people who literally think they know as much about building a baseball team as the people who do it in real life. I was able to identify just 4 modern GM's who are current members of the Hall of Fame, Larry MacPhail, Lee Macphail, Branch Rickey and curiously, Pat Gillick.
BRANCH RICKEY, of course, was probably the greatest GM in the history of the game. He invented the concept of the farm system in building the St. Louis Cardinals into the "Gashouse Gang" of the 1930's. As GM of the Dodgers, he broke the unwritten rule prohibiting the hiring of African-American players by hiring Jackie Robinson and he was an early pioneer in signing international prospects when he signed Roberto Clemente while he was GM of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
LARRY MACPHAIL was an executive with the New York Yankees who brought in some innovations such as regular televised games and flights between cities for road games as well a maintaining excellent Yankee teams.
Larry's son, LEE MACPHAIL was also a Yankee executive and later laid the groundwork for the great Baltimore Orioles teams of the late 60's and 70's.
PAT GILLICK built the Toronto teams of the 1990's and later contributed to a WS win for the Phillies in the 2000's. Gillick's resume seems a bit thin compared to many other GM's who are not in the Hall of Fame. It remains to be seen if Gillick is an anomaly or the first of many modern GM's who are eventually inducted.
What about other GM's who are not in the HOF? I started out researching this by trying to think of teams who have enjoyed sustained success in the past 50 years or so, thinking that maybe there was a pretty good GM behind that successs. Here are some of the names I came up with:
BOB HOWSAM- Howsam was a Branch Rickey protege who was almost singlehandedly responsible for building the great Cincinnati Reds teams of the 1970's known as the "Big Red Machine". Prior to that, he played a role in putting together the Cardinal teams of 1967 and 1968. Howsam was particularly a thorn in the collective Giants fans side as he was responsible for acquiring Orlando Cepeda and George Foster from the Giants for the Cards and Reds respectively. Howsam was extremely conservative in his general outlook and was not able to adjust to the realities of free agency and he was unable to carry the success of the Big Red Machine to a new generation.
BING DEVINE- Devine built the Cardinal team that won the World Series in 1964, but was curiously fired before the end of that season by an impatient Gussie Busch when the Cards fell way behind the Phillies before the Phils' epic collapse. He went on to build the groundwork for the "Amazing Mets" teams of the late 60's and early 70's before returning as GM of the Cardinals when Busch and Howsam had a falling out.
HARRY DALTON- Dalton carried on the work of Lee MacPhail with the Baltimore Orioles and guided them to sustained success through the 70's and early 80's. He later had an undistinguished stint with the Angels, but then built the "Harvey's Wallbangers" team with the Milwaukee Brewers.
AL CAMPANIS- Campanis was the Dodgers GM from 1966 through the late 1980's, putting together a team that enjoyed sustained success. His career came to an unhappy end with some unfortunate comments about race and the lack of African-American managers in the major leagues on Nightline. Campanis probably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame based on this baseball accomplishments, but the legacy of his Nightline comments may keep him out.
JOHN SCHUERHOLTZ- Schuerholtz has built teams with sustained success in Kansas City and Atlanta with a total of 15 postseason appearances and 2 World Series wins, 1 each with KC and ATL.
CHARLIE FINLEY- amazingly, Charlie Finley was his both owner and GM of the Oakland A's and personally built the great A's teams of the 1970's. Finley was a classic old-school owner who was not able to adapt to free agency and ended up selling the A's and getting out of baseball.
In Brian Sabean's 16 years as GM of the Giants, his teams have had 12 winning seasons, 6 postseason appearances, 3 NL Pennants and 2 World Series championships. He as able to completely rebuild a team after the end of Barry Bonds career and has been able to adapt his approach to financial and personnel realities. His record compares favorably with many of the top GM's in the history of the game. Hall of Fame induction for GM's is very sparse so it is difficult to project him as a future Hall of Famer at this point. His record certainly compares favorably with Pat Gillick who has been inducted, but is no better than several GM's who are not in the HOF. It remains to be seen how GM's are treated in the future by HOF voters.
Sabean is certainly the most successful GM in Giants franchise history since the great John McGraw and easily the most successful GM since the team moved to San Francisco.
Brian Sabean's career in baseball management started out in scouting for the New York Yankees and he rose to the position of Scouting Director with them and played a major role in scouting and drafting the nucleus of the great Yankee teams of the late 1990's. In 1993 he was hired by Giants GM Bob Quinn to be scouting director and assistant GM and succeeded Quinn as GM in 1997. At the time, the Giants had suffered through losing seasons 5 of the previous 6 seasons despite the presence of Barry Bonds on the team since 1993. Sabean immediately set about to distribute payroll more evenly throughout the roster and traded Matt Williams for several players including Jeff Kent. He used the draft and farm system as a source of trading chips to acquire multiple players such as JT Snow, Livan Hernandez, Robb Nen, Jason Schmidt and others who would help send the Giants into postseason competition multiple times over the next several seasons including a bitter World Series loss to the Angels in 2002.
With Barry Bonds career moving into its final stages, Sabean foresaw a post-Bonds team built around homegrown pitching and had a cadre of young pitchers in place headed by first round draft picks Kurt Ainsworth and Jerome Williams plus 4'th round pick Jesse Foppert known to Giants internet fans as AFW. In a run of monumentally bad luck, the Bonds era ended prematurely when Barry got a nasty infection in his knee after arthroscopic surgery and all 3 of Sabean's prized young pitchers careers were cut short by injuries and poor conditioning. Sabean desperately tried to hold things together by signing multiple veteran free agents at the expense of draft picks, the whole thing collapsed into 90+ loss seasons in 2007 and 2008. Big money contracts to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand with poor on-field production from these players helped to fuel fan anger and frustration. Calls from internet based Giants fans and local media for Sabean to be replaced as GM mounted.
Giants ownership refused to fire Sabean, though, and instead gave him a contract extension. Meanwhile, Sabean stuck to his plan for the post Bonds era by continuing to draft and develop pitchers such as Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner. After the 2007 draft, he hired John Barr a more offensive minded scout, away from the Dodgers to be the his scouting director and Barr drafted Buster Posey in his first draft in 2008. The Giants improved to 88 wins in 2009 and broke through with their first World Series Championship in 2010 and repeated that feat in 2012 largely on the strength of the young pitching core that Sabean constructed after the end of Barry Bonds' career and the unfortunate collapse of AFW.
So, where does all this leave Brian Sabean in the history of baseball GMs? As I said earlier, GM's have only recently operated in the public spotlight as the Information Age has made their work more accessible to the public and the rise of sabermetrics and fantasy baseball has created millions of people who literally think they know as much about building a baseball team as the people who do it in real life. I was able to identify just 4 modern GM's who are current members of the Hall of Fame, Larry MacPhail, Lee Macphail, Branch Rickey and curiously, Pat Gillick.
BRANCH RICKEY, of course, was probably the greatest GM in the history of the game. He invented the concept of the farm system in building the St. Louis Cardinals into the "Gashouse Gang" of the 1930's. As GM of the Dodgers, he broke the unwritten rule prohibiting the hiring of African-American players by hiring Jackie Robinson and he was an early pioneer in signing international prospects when he signed Roberto Clemente while he was GM of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
LARRY MACPHAIL was an executive with the New York Yankees who brought in some innovations such as regular televised games and flights between cities for road games as well a maintaining excellent Yankee teams.
Larry's son, LEE MACPHAIL was also a Yankee executive and later laid the groundwork for the great Baltimore Orioles teams of the late 60's and 70's.
PAT GILLICK built the Toronto teams of the 1990's and later contributed to a WS win for the Phillies in the 2000's. Gillick's resume seems a bit thin compared to many other GM's who are not in the Hall of Fame. It remains to be seen if Gillick is an anomaly or the first of many modern GM's who are eventually inducted.
What about other GM's who are not in the HOF? I started out researching this by trying to think of teams who have enjoyed sustained success in the past 50 years or so, thinking that maybe there was a pretty good GM behind that successs. Here are some of the names I came up with:
BOB HOWSAM- Howsam was a Branch Rickey protege who was almost singlehandedly responsible for building the great Cincinnati Reds teams of the 1970's known as the "Big Red Machine". Prior to that, he played a role in putting together the Cardinal teams of 1967 and 1968. Howsam was particularly a thorn in the collective Giants fans side as he was responsible for acquiring Orlando Cepeda and George Foster from the Giants for the Cards and Reds respectively. Howsam was extremely conservative in his general outlook and was not able to adjust to the realities of free agency and he was unable to carry the success of the Big Red Machine to a new generation.
BING DEVINE- Devine built the Cardinal team that won the World Series in 1964, but was curiously fired before the end of that season by an impatient Gussie Busch when the Cards fell way behind the Phillies before the Phils' epic collapse. He went on to build the groundwork for the "Amazing Mets" teams of the late 60's and early 70's before returning as GM of the Cardinals when Busch and Howsam had a falling out.
HARRY DALTON- Dalton carried on the work of Lee MacPhail with the Baltimore Orioles and guided them to sustained success through the 70's and early 80's. He later had an undistinguished stint with the Angels, but then built the "Harvey's Wallbangers" team with the Milwaukee Brewers.
AL CAMPANIS- Campanis was the Dodgers GM from 1966 through the late 1980's, putting together a team that enjoyed sustained success. His career came to an unhappy end with some unfortunate comments about race and the lack of African-American managers in the major leagues on Nightline. Campanis probably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame based on this baseball accomplishments, but the legacy of his Nightline comments may keep him out.
JOHN SCHUERHOLTZ- Schuerholtz has built teams with sustained success in Kansas City and Atlanta with a total of 15 postseason appearances and 2 World Series wins, 1 each with KC and ATL.
CHARLIE FINLEY- amazingly, Charlie Finley was his both owner and GM of the Oakland A's and personally built the great A's teams of the 1970's. Finley was a classic old-school owner who was not able to adapt to free agency and ended up selling the A's and getting out of baseball.
In Brian Sabean's 16 years as GM of the Giants, his teams have had 12 winning seasons, 6 postseason appearances, 3 NL Pennants and 2 World Series championships. He as able to completely rebuild a team after the end of Barry Bonds career and has been able to adapt his approach to financial and personnel realities. His record compares favorably with many of the top GM's in the history of the game. Hall of Fame induction for GM's is very sparse so it is difficult to project him as a future Hall of Famer at this point. His record certainly compares favorably with Pat Gillick who has been inducted, but is no better than several GM's who are not in the HOF. It remains to be seen how GM's are treated in the future by HOF voters.
Sabean is certainly the most successful GM in Giants franchise history since the great John McGraw and easily the most successful GM since the team moved to San Francisco.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Hot Stove Update: State of the Giants Roster
While winning a second World Series Championship in 3 years is more than enough chicken soup for any Giants fan's soul, the season also could not have gone better if the team was in the depths of rebuilding as the Giants made significant additions to the long term core of their team. It was winning while reloading all at the same time as Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford survived numerous ups and downs to solidify starting positions into the future while Hector Sanchez, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and George Kontos added seemingly long term solutions to team depth. The result is that GM Brian Sabean goes to the hot stove poker table with a strong hand and very little need to make risky gambles. Here's how it stacks up:
C Buster Posey- This is Buster's first year of arbitration eligibility, but he is under Giants control for 4 more years. Only decision for Sabes is whether to go year-to-year or sign a long term deal. MLBTR's projected arbitration salary: $ 5.9 M.
1B Brandon Belt- Belt is pre-arbitration eligible meaning he will play for near minimum MLB salary next year. Made significant progress in his first full season as a starter.
2B Marco Scutaro?- Scutaro is a FA who has said he wants to re-sign with the Giants who have said they want to re-sign him. The extra money from the postseason should help get a deal done unless some other team wants to overpay like crazy. Ryan Theriot could be a cheap fallback option or there are several other decent 2B FA's on the market. Joe Panik is probably the 2B of the future although he's stayed at SS so far in the minors.
3B Pablo Sandoval- Pablo is under contract for 2 more seasons. I expect a huge breakout next year as he seems to be serious about staying in some semblance of shape and he does not have any more hamate bones left to fracture.
SS Brandon Crawford- Improved in every phase of his game as the season progressed. His defense was a difference maker in the postseason and he continued to get timely hits on the biggest stage possible. Pre-arbitration eligible.
LF Open- Gregor Blanco ended the season as the starter and his defense was a weapon in the postseason. Questionable whether his offense is what you want from LF long term. Could be a fallback option for CF if Pagan leaves. Melky could be a steal of a deal here, but if I had to bet, I would bet on him not coming back.
CF Angel Pagan?- There seems to be mutual interest in re-signing Pagan, but he will have suitors out there willing to spend some $$$ to sign him. The failure of the Giants to make a qualifying offer and Pagan's comment that he has a family to take care of could be signs that a deal is not a slam dunk. Also, it seems fairly clear that the Giants view Gary Brown as their CF of the future and they could view a long term deal for Pagan as blocking Brown and therefore problematic. He will probably test the market and get paid.
RF Hunter Pence- Pence has one last year of arbitration eligibility. His MLBTR arbitration salary projection is $13.8 M which makes you pause, but whether they go 1 year through the arbitration process or work out a long term deal, Hunter Pence will be the starting RF in 2013. Forget about any talk of moving to LF. Like it or not, he's gonna be the RF.
SP Matt Cain- 2013 will be the first year of a 5 year/$100 M contract with an option for 2018.
SP Tim Lincecum- Last year of a 2 year contract. Timmy will get a $4 M raise to $22 M in 2013. Forget talk of him moving to the bullpen. He'll be in the rotation, at least to start the season.
SP Barry Zito- Last year of his mammoth non-albatross contract(can't call it an albatross when the Giants have won 2 WS with it). He'll get a raise of $1 M to $20 M. Option for 2014.
SP Madison Bumgarner- Signed through 2017 for a total of $35 M but slated to make just $750 K in 2013. Team friendly options for 2018 and 2019 to boot. Wow!
SP Ryan Vogelsong- Will get a well deserved $2 M raise to $5 M with a team friendly option for 2014. I couldn't be happier that after all these years, Ryan is going to ultimately leave the game with some financial security.
RP Sergio Romo- 2'nd year of arbitration eligibility. Should get a nice raise from $1.5 M with his closer experience. Do the Giants try to buy out the remainder of his eligibility?
RP Santiago Casilla- Final year of arbitration eligibility. Negotiations could be contentious as he gained closer experience but ultimately lost the job. Do the Giants try to buy out his final year with a 2 year deal?
RP Javier Lopez- Final year of a 2 year contract. At $4.25 M.
RP Jose Mijares- Arbitration eligible. MLBTR's projected arbitration value, 1.6 M. That might be a bit steep, but Sabes and Boch love their LOOGYs so I expect him to be tendered a contract which might make Affeldt expendable.
RP George Kontos- Kontos is pre-arbitration eligible. He ate some big innings and got some big outs, even in the postseason. He's a lock for a bullpen job next year.
RP Brian Wilson?- Arbitration eligible, but he's coming off his second TJ surgery and MLBTR projects his arbitration salary at $8.5 M. I can't believe the Giants will tender him a contract at that rate. If they don't, he's a FA. He'll probably be looking for a 1 year "pillow" contract to rebuild his value. There could be mutual interest with the Giants for something like that with some incentives.
RP Jeremy Affeldt?- Affeldt proved down the stretch and in the offseason that he is much more than a LOOGY as he was able to get RH batters out and go more than 1 inning in an appearance. Giants want him back and he probably wants to come back, but he fired a warning shot by making it clear he will be looking for a multi-year deal. He will be testing the market. Giants have a track record of being willing to pay a premium price for LH relief pitching, but does the presence of Lopez and Mijares make Affeldt expendable this time?
RC Hector Sanchez- Hector was an unexpected luxury in 2012 and will continue to be a luxury for 2 more seasons before he becomes arbitration eligible. A mystifying anti-Hector sentiment arose on some Giants oriented internet sites as the season progressed, but make no mistake, the Giants know his value and their assessment is the correct one.
RIF Joaquin Arias- Arias proved to be an invaluable reserve for the Giants in 2012. He's arbitration eligible but should come at a reasonable price. Expect him back in 2013.
RIF Ryan Theriot?- Riot may have gotten frustrated with close to zero playing time down the stretch, but ended up being a World Series hero scoring the clinching run. Could be a fallback option if Scutaro ends up going elsewhere but Riot might want to shop for a reserve role that has more upside if Scutaro does re-sign.
ROF Gregor Blanco- Blanco was the starting LF in the postseason, but it's hard to imagine him holding down that role for a full season. He could be an option in CF if Pagan goes elsewhere, but his ideal role is probably 4'th OF. Arbitration eligible, but at a reasonable price. He'll be back.
ROF Xavier Nady? Frankie Pegs? Roger K? 5'th OF is probably the most wide open roster spot on the team. The possibility of competition for the starting LF role adds to the intrigue.
Summary: The 2013 roster is set except for 7 positions- LF, CF, 2B, 2 RP's and 2 position bench jobs. Probably the biggest offseason decision for Sabes and ownership is whether to use the postseason loot to buy a bat for LF. Affeldt may be the FA they can least afford to lose with Scutaro second and Pagan third. What to do with Wilson could get a bit dicey, but it seems clear that the Giants should not tender him a contract before arbitration.
Let the roster speculation begin(since we're trying to be a family friendly site, we won't call it by that other well known name)!
C Buster Posey- This is Buster's first year of arbitration eligibility, but he is under Giants control for 4 more years. Only decision for Sabes is whether to go year-to-year or sign a long term deal. MLBTR's projected arbitration salary: $ 5.9 M.
1B Brandon Belt- Belt is pre-arbitration eligible meaning he will play for near minimum MLB salary next year. Made significant progress in his first full season as a starter.
2B Marco Scutaro?- Scutaro is a FA who has said he wants to re-sign with the Giants who have said they want to re-sign him. The extra money from the postseason should help get a deal done unless some other team wants to overpay like crazy. Ryan Theriot could be a cheap fallback option or there are several other decent 2B FA's on the market. Joe Panik is probably the 2B of the future although he's stayed at SS so far in the minors.
3B Pablo Sandoval- Pablo is under contract for 2 more seasons. I expect a huge breakout next year as he seems to be serious about staying in some semblance of shape and he does not have any more hamate bones left to fracture.
SS Brandon Crawford- Improved in every phase of his game as the season progressed. His defense was a difference maker in the postseason and he continued to get timely hits on the biggest stage possible. Pre-arbitration eligible.
LF Open- Gregor Blanco ended the season as the starter and his defense was a weapon in the postseason. Questionable whether his offense is what you want from LF long term. Could be a fallback option for CF if Pagan leaves. Melky could be a steal of a deal here, but if I had to bet, I would bet on him not coming back.
CF Angel Pagan?- There seems to be mutual interest in re-signing Pagan, but he will have suitors out there willing to spend some $$$ to sign him. The failure of the Giants to make a qualifying offer and Pagan's comment that he has a family to take care of could be signs that a deal is not a slam dunk. Also, it seems fairly clear that the Giants view Gary Brown as their CF of the future and they could view a long term deal for Pagan as blocking Brown and therefore problematic. He will probably test the market and get paid.
RF Hunter Pence- Pence has one last year of arbitration eligibility. His MLBTR arbitration salary projection is $13.8 M which makes you pause, but whether they go 1 year through the arbitration process or work out a long term deal, Hunter Pence will be the starting RF in 2013. Forget about any talk of moving to LF. Like it or not, he's gonna be the RF.
SP Matt Cain- 2013 will be the first year of a 5 year/$100 M contract with an option for 2018.
SP Tim Lincecum- Last year of a 2 year contract. Timmy will get a $4 M raise to $22 M in 2013. Forget talk of him moving to the bullpen. He'll be in the rotation, at least to start the season.
SP Barry Zito- Last year of his mammoth non-albatross contract(can't call it an albatross when the Giants have won 2 WS with it). He'll get a raise of $1 M to $20 M. Option for 2014.
SP Madison Bumgarner- Signed through 2017 for a total of $35 M but slated to make just $750 K in 2013. Team friendly options for 2018 and 2019 to boot. Wow!
SP Ryan Vogelsong- Will get a well deserved $2 M raise to $5 M with a team friendly option for 2014. I couldn't be happier that after all these years, Ryan is going to ultimately leave the game with some financial security.
RP Sergio Romo- 2'nd year of arbitration eligibility. Should get a nice raise from $1.5 M with his closer experience. Do the Giants try to buy out the remainder of his eligibility?
RP Santiago Casilla- Final year of arbitration eligibility. Negotiations could be contentious as he gained closer experience but ultimately lost the job. Do the Giants try to buy out his final year with a 2 year deal?
RP Javier Lopez- Final year of a 2 year contract. At $4.25 M.
RP Jose Mijares- Arbitration eligible. MLBTR's projected arbitration value, 1.6 M. That might be a bit steep, but Sabes and Boch love their LOOGYs so I expect him to be tendered a contract which might make Affeldt expendable.
RP George Kontos- Kontos is pre-arbitration eligible. He ate some big innings and got some big outs, even in the postseason. He's a lock for a bullpen job next year.
RP Brian Wilson?- Arbitration eligible, but he's coming off his second TJ surgery and MLBTR projects his arbitration salary at $8.5 M. I can't believe the Giants will tender him a contract at that rate. If they don't, he's a FA. He'll probably be looking for a 1 year "pillow" contract to rebuild his value. There could be mutual interest with the Giants for something like that with some incentives.
RP Jeremy Affeldt?- Affeldt proved down the stretch and in the offseason that he is much more than a LOOGY as he was able to get RH batters out and go more than 1 inning in an appearance. Giants want him back and he probably wants to come back, but he fired a warning shot by making it clear he will be looking for a multi-year deal. He will be testing the market. Giants have a track record of being willing to pay a premium price for LH relief pitching, but does the presence of Lopez and Mijares make Affeldt expendable this time?
RC Hector Sanchez- Hector was an unexpected luxury in 2012 and will continue to be a luxury for 2 more seasons before he becomes arbitration eligible. A mystifying anti-Hector sentiment arose on some Giants oriented internet sites as the season progressed, but make no mistake, the Giants know his value and their assessment is the correct one.
RIF Joaquin Arias- Arias proved to be an invaluable reserve for the Giants in 2012. He's arbitration eligible but should come at a reasonable price. Expect him back in 2013.
RIF Ryan Theriot?- Riot may have gotten frustrated with close to zero playing time down the stretch, but ended up being a World Series hero scoring the clinching run. Could be a fallback option if Scutaro ends up going elsewhere but Riot might want to shop for a reserve role that has more upside if Scutaro does re-sign.
ROF Gregor Blanco- Blanco was the starting LF in the postseason, but it's hard to imagine him holding down that role for a full season. He could be an option in CF if Pagan goes elsewhere, but his ideal role is probably 4'th OF. Arbitration eligible, but at a reasonable price. He'll be back.
ROF Xavier Nady? Frankie Pegs? Roger K? 5'th OF is probably the most wide open roster spot on the team. The possibility of competition for the starting LF role adds to the intrigue.
Summary: The 2013 roster is set except for 7 positions- LF, CF, 2B, 2 RP's and 2 position bench jobs. Probably the biggest offseason decision for Sabes and ownership is whether to use the postseason loot to buy a bat for LF. Affeldt may be the FA they can least afford to lose with Scutaro second and Pagan third. What to do with Wilson could get a bit dicey, but it seems clear that the Giants should not tender him a contract before arbitration.
Let the roster speculation begin(since we're trying to be a family friendly site, we won't call it by that other well known name)!
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Comment: Bruce Bochy's Place in Baseball History
Like many MLB managers, Bruce Bochy is a former backup catcher who put his time sitting on the bench to good use learning game strategy and what makes a baseball team tick. His last stop as a MLB player was with the San Diego Padres where he was a backup catcher to Terry Kennedy on their pennant winning team of 1984. He played his last season at age 32 in 1987. He went on to manage in the minor leagues as well as coach at the MLB level for the next 7 years before taking over as Padres Manager in 1995 at age 40.
Bochy was successful in his 12 year tenure as the Padres manager, guiding them to the most successful stretch in franchise history. Under his management, the Padres made 4 postseason appearances and won 1 NL pennant. He was named Manager of the Year in 1996, the only time he has won the award. Bochy gained a reputation as being an excellent manager of pitchers, particularly the bullpen which was always a strength of his Padre teams. At the same time, 2 specific incidents may have caused a negative perception of his overall ability as a game tactician and his ability to relate to and utilize young players.
In the 1998 World Series against the Yankees, there was one game, which seemed to be winnable, where he seemed to get outmaneuvered into giving up his DH. Whether that occurred as a result of an unfamiliarity with AL rules or a tactical mistake or just how the game played out, may never be fully settled. Later in his tenure, he stubbornly insisted on playing a rapidly aging Vinny Castilla at 3B over the younger Sean Burroughs who the Padres front office saw as their third baseman of the future until the Padres traded Castilla, essentially so Bochy could not play him anymore. In retrospect, it is clear that Castilla was done, but also clear that Burroughs was not the Padres long term answer at 3B.
Despite 2 consecutive postseason appearances in 2005 and 2006, new Padres executive Sandy Alderson decided he wanted new blood in the manager's chair and allowed Bochy to interview for the Giants job to replace Felipe Alou with the distinct implication that the Padres wanted him out and would be relieved of having to fire him if he accepted a Giants offer. The Giants, by this time were in the post-Bonds era and in dire need of rebuilding. Many Giants fans, including I, thought that Bochy might not be the right choice for that particular time preferring someone with experience managing in the Giants minor league system who might be more patient and nurturing of young players.
Bochy's first two years with the Giants were rough as they lost 90+ games back-to-back. Bochy came under intense criticism from many corners who saw him as a symbol of a rebuild that was much too slowly paced for fan's satisfaction. Nicknames like "Melonhead", "Botchy" and "Bork" became part of the standard Giants fan's internet lexicon. But while the talent challenged team struggled, you could see some qualities that make Bochy a good manager. He brought order to the chaos that Felipe Alou had left the bullpen in, installed Brian Wilson as the closer, and he maintained a positive attitude in the clubhouse, at least by all appearances, despite all the losing. Things were looking up in the talent front too as Matt Cain emerged as a solid MLB starter and Tim Lincecum won his first Cy Young.
By 2009, things had started to turn around. Cain was establishes as a solid MLB starter. Tim Lincecum had arrived and 2009 was his second Cy Young season. Pablo Sandoval came up mid-season and darn near carried the team to the playoffs. They won 88 games. We all know what happened in 2010 with the mid-season arrival of Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner to expand the homegrown core and bring home the first World Series Championship in San Francisco Giants history. With his second World Series win in 3 years, suddenly Bochy is the toast of the town as well as all of major league baseball. Yesterday, I counted at least 6 separate articles trumpeting his Hall of Fame credentials! During the post championship celebration, Brian Sabean declared him to be a no doubt Hall of Famer.
From a statistical standpoint, Bruce Bochy has now managed 18 seasons, 2898 games with a .502 winning percentage, 6 postseason appearances, 3 NL Pennants and 2 WS titles. I thought it would be interesting to run down some of the managers who are already in the Hall of Fame to get a better idea of just how Bochy's record might stand up. Here is a list by year of induction:
2010 Whitey Herzog, 18 years, 2409 games, .532, 6 postseason, 3 Pennants, 1 WS.
2008 Dick Williams, 21 years, 3023 games, .520, 6 postseason, 4 Pennants, 2 WS.
2000 Sparky Anderson, 26 years, 4030 games, .545, 7 postseason, 5 Pennants, 3 WS.
1997 Tom Lasorda, 21 years, 3040 games, .526, 8 postseason, 4 Pennants, 2 WS.
1996 Earl Weaver, 17 years, .583, 6 postseason, 4 Pennants, 1 WS.
1994 Leo Durocher, 24 years, .540, 3 postseason, 3 Pennants, 1 WS.
1983 Walter Alston, 23 years, .558, 7 Postseason, 7 Pennants, 4 WS.
That's right, Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver only won 1 WS apiece! Durocher and Alston managed before expanded playoffs so if you went to the postseason, you were in the World Series. As playoffs have expanded, it has become easier to build up postseason numbers. This can be seen in the records of 3 recently retired managers who are widely considered to be can't miss Hall of Famers:
Bobby Cox, 29 years, 4508 games, .556, 15 postseasons, 5 Pennants, 1 WS
Tony LaRussa, 33 years, 5097 games, .536, 11 postseason, 6 pennants, 3 WS.
Joe Torre, 29 years, 4329 games, .538, 13 postseason, 6 Pennants, 4 WS.
There are at least 4 managers with 2 WS titles who are not in the HOF and may never get there:
Tom Kelly, 16 years, 2385 games, .478, 2 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Danny Murtaugh, 15 years, 2068 games, .540, 5 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Ralph Houk, 20 years, 3157 games, .514, 3 postseason, 3 Pennants, 2 WS.
Cito Gaston, 12 years, 1731 games, .516, 5 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Kelly had that sub .500 winning percentage and no postseason finishes except for the 2 years the Twins won it all. Murtaugh's career was interrupted several times with health problems. Houk won all 3 Pennants in his first 3 seasons managing the Yankees and those wins are widely credited more to the organization than him.
Where does all this put Bruce Bochy? Well, if his managing career ended today, it would compare favorably with several Hall of Fame managers, but I do not believe it would be a "slam dunk". Some voters might well look at his overall winning percentage and hold that against him. At least 3 managers who will likely preceed him in being voted into the HOF have clearly stronger resumes and his resume is not clearly stronger than several managers who are not in the HOF and may never get there.
On the other hand, Bochy is widely perceived to have won with teams whose talent was not expected to get them that far, which boosts his stock in some minds. He also still has several years left to manage in which he has the possibility of going to more postseasons, winning more pennants and WS and increasing his winning percentage.
At the very least, it is way past time to put away the name calling meme's and acknowledge that Bruce Bochy is a very good manager who deserves consideration for the Hall of Fame even if his career ended today.
Bochy was successful in his 12 year tenure as the Padres manager, guiding them to the most successful stretch in franchise history. Under his management, the Padres made 4 postseason appearances and won 1 NL pennant. He was named Manager of the Year in 1996, the only time he has won the award. Bochy gained a reputation as being an excellent manager of pitchers, particularly the bullpen which was always a strength of his Padre teams. At the same time, 2 specific incidents may have caused a negative perception of his overall ability as a game tactician and his ability to relate to and utilize young players.
In the 1998 World Series against the Yankees, there was one game, which seemed to be winnable, where he seemed to get outmaneuvered into giving up his DH. Whether that occurred as a result of an unfamiliarity with AL rules or a tactical mistake or just how the game played out, may never be fully settled. Later in his tenure, he stubbornly insisted on playing a rapidly aging Vinny Castilla at 3B over the younger Sean Burroughs who the Padres front office saw as their third baseman of the future until the Padres traded Castilla, essentially so Bochy could not play him anymore. In retrospect, it is clear that Castilla was done, but also clear that Burroughs was not the Padres long term answer at 3B.
Despite 2 consecutive postseason appearances in 2005 and 2006, new Padres executive Sandy Alderson decided he wanted new blood in the manager's chair and allowed Bochy to interview for the Giants job to replace Felipe Alou with the distinct implication that the Padres wanted him out and would be relieved of having to fire him if he accepted a Giants offer. The Giants, by this time were in the post-Bonds era and in dire need of rebuilding. Many Giants fans, including I, thought that Bochy might not be the right choice for that particular time preferring someone with experience managing in the Giants minor league system who might be more patient and nurturing of young players.
Bochy's first two years with the Giants were rough as they lost 90+ games back-to-back. Bochy came under intense criticism from many corners who saw him as a symbol of a rebuild that was much too slowly paced for fan's satisfaction. Nicknames like "Melonhead", "Botchy" and "Bork" became part of the standard Giants fan's internet lexicon. But while the talent challenged team struggled, you could see some qualities that make Bochy a good manager. He brought order to the chaos that Felipe Alou had left the bullpen in, installed Brian Wilson as the closer, and he maintained a positive attitude in the clubhouse, at least by all appearances, despite all the losing. Things were looking up in the talent front too as Matt Cain emerged as a solid MLB starter and Tim Lincecum won his first Cy Young.
By 2009, things had started to turn around. Cain was establishes as a solid MLB starter. Tim Lincecum had arrived and 2009 was his second Cy Young season. Pablo Sandoval came up mid-season and darn near carried the team to the playoffs. They won 88 games. We all know what happened in 2010 with the mid-season arrival of Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner to expand the homegrown core and bring home the first World Series Championship in San Francisco Giants history. With his second World Series win in 3 years, suddenly Bochy is the toast of the town as well as all of major league baseball. Yesterday, I counted at least 6 separate articles trumpeting his Hall of Fame credentials! During the post championship celebration, Brian Sabean declared him to be a no doubt Hall of Famer.
From a statistical standpoint, Bruce Bochy has now managed 18 seasons, 2898 games with a .502 winning percentage, 6 postseason appearances, 3 NL Pennants and 2 WS titles. I thought it would be interesting to run down some of the managers who are already in the Hall of Fame to get a better idea of just how Bochy's record might stand up. Here is a list by year of induction:
2010 Whitey Herzog, 18 years, 2409 games, .532, 6 postseason, 3 Pennants, 1 WS.
2008 Dick Williams, 21 years, 3023 games, .520, 6 postseason, 4 Pennants, 2 WS.
2000 Sparky Anderson, 26 years, 4030 games, .545, 7 postseason, 5 Pennants, 3 WS.
1997 Tom Lasorda, 21 years, 3040 games, .526, 8 postseason, 4 Pennants, 2 WS.
1996 Earl Weaver, 17 years, .583, 6 postseason, 4 Pennants, 1 WS.
1994 Leo Durocher, 24 years, .540, 3 postseason, 3 Pennants, 1 WS.
1983 Walter Alston, 23 years, .558, 7 Postseason, 7 Pennants, 4 WS.
That's right, Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver only won 1 WS apiece! Durocher and Alston managed before expanded playoffs so if you went to the postseason, you were in the World Series. As playoffs have expanded, it has become easier to build up postseason numbers. This can be seen in the records of 3 recently retired managers who are widely considered to be can't miss Hall of Famers:
Bobby Cox, 29 years, 4508 games, .556, 15 postseasons, 5 Pennants, 1 WS
Tony LaRussa, 33 years, 5097 games, .536, 11 postseason, 6 pennants, 3 WS.
Joe Torre, 29 years, 4329 games, .538, 13 postseason, 6 Pennants, 4 WS.
There are at least 4 managers with 2 WS titles who are not in the HOF and may never get there:
Tom Kelly, 16 years, 2385 games, .478, 2 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Danny Murtaugh, 15 years, 2068 games, .540, 5 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Ralph Houk, 20 years, 3157 games, .514, 3 postseason, 3 Pennants, 2 WS.
Cito Gaston, 12 years, 1731 games, .516, 5 postseason, 2 Pennants, 2 WS.
Kelly had that sub .500 winning percentage and no postseason finishes except for the 2 years the Twins won it all. Murtaugh's career was interrupted several times with health problems. Houk won all 3 Pennants in his first 3 seasons managing the Yankees and those wins are widely credited more to the organization than him.
Where does all this put Bruce Bochy? Well, if his managing career ended today, it would compare favorably with several Hall of Fame managers, but I do not believe it would be a "slam dunk". Some voters might well look at his overall winning percentage and hold that against him. At least 3 managers who will likely preceed him in being voted into the HOF have clearly stronger resumes and his resume is not clearly stronger than several managers who are not in the HOF and may never get there.
On the other hand, Bochy is widely perceived to have won with teams whose talent was not expected to get them that far, which boosts his stock in some minds. He also still has several years left to manage in which he has the possibility of going to more postseasons, winning more pennants and WS and increasing his winning percentage.
At the very least, it is way past time to put away the name calling meme's and acknowledge that Bruce Bochy is a very good manager who deserves consideration for the Hall of Fame even if his career ended today.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
