AAA: Las Vegas Aviators beat the Sacramento River Cats 8-3.
Heliot Ramos RF- 2 for 4, HR(11). BA= .224.
Casey Schmitt 3B- 3 for 4, 2B. BA= .500.
Cole Waites RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.00.
Heliot Ramos has had some good games in September but some 0'fers sprinkled in that hold back his overall numbers. His September slash line of .246/.269/431 is marginally better than his season averages. Look at Casey Schmitt powering his way through the minor league levels!
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Thoughts on The Churn:
The Churn has come under fire as the season winds down with several players appearing to take veiled shots at it and even Buster Posey in his inauguration speech as a new investor/owner in the team brought it up. So what do we make of The Churn? FZ clearly believes in it as a continuous way to find marginal improvements in the roster out of other teams castoffs. It undoubtedly turned up some undervalued players who just deserved their shot. YtY is probably the best example but Lamonte Wade Jr and Thairo Estrada add to the narrative.
There is a cost to all this. On a "chemistry" level it produces a dizzying lack of continuity with the potential to build depression and even resentment as players start to look like chess pieces and proverbial "gun fodder" more than human beings. And if you don't care about chemistry and want to only look at the numbers, it ends up giving a whole lot of cumulative playing time to players who probably have no business getting it at the MLB level.
What's less clear to me is if all that churning has actually improved the overall strength of the roster. The question I have is not whether The Churn by itself is enough. It's whether The Churn works at all for it's intended purpose. Are the last 5 guys on the roster really better because of it? Is the AAA squad better because of it? I am not sure sure. The River Cats roster still looks like mostly a collection of AAAA players to me, Ramos, Schmitt and possibly Will Wilson, Cole Waites and Sean Hjelle being the exceptions and they are all "home grown".
Yesterday I once again pondered the fact that Brian Sabean was pretty darn good at finding role player to fill out a roster. He did it the old fashioned way which was scouting and signing them in the offseason then giving them a legitimate shot to make the team out of spring training. Just a quick reminder of some of those players:
Andres Torres
Juan Uribe
Eli Whiteside
Ryan Vogelsong
George Kontos
Gregor Blanco
Joaquin Arias
Michael Morse
Yusmeiro Petit
You could add in Cody Ross who was a late-season add off the waiver wire which was more of a Churn move as well as lower cost free agents like Edgar Renteria, Aubrey Huff and Tim Hudson.
Conclusion: While a low level of roster churning is probably necessary and even healthy, it's time to scale it back and be more selective in the players you bring and do more of it in the offseason which gives spring training to evaluate and settle into the organization.
I think there's a method to the madness, that is, FZ is taking a longer-term, methodical approach to team building. Yeah, you gotta trust the process as they say, but the idea is that you keep improving incrementally in every facet of roster construction and eventually you'll reach critical mass to make a big difference. It's kinda like Chinese water torture, but it might be torture for some fans. FZ is smart enough to know, though, that you need a core of 5-6 everyday players to build the churn around so he'll aggressively go after Judge or one of the SS: Turner, Correa, Bogaerts.
ReplyDeleteExactly.
ReplyDeleteI could also do with more D on the field and more contact at the plate. The True Outcome approach could kill this game.
Sometimes, you use the brute force method, trial-and-error, and go through as many hypotheses/choices/options as you can.
ReplyDeleteSometimes, you have an insight*, and pick one out of thin air, have it tested, experimented, and that one turns out to be a success.
I think machines can do the former better. Humans, on the other hand, hopefully still have the edge on the latter, unless AI somehow surprises us all. The AI machine that beat the Korean Go master still churned through quite a bit of possibilities/scenarios mechanically or electronically, I assume.
*Like Newton under an apple tree, for example.
I would like to add that, personally, I hope going forward, we will emphasize more of the latter, and less of the former, compared with our current mix of the two methods.
ReplyDelete2021's success fueled by nearly every position player having an improvement year-over-year dictated just fine tuning the roster plus the required refueling of the rotation.
ReplyDeleteIn 2022 the year-over-year change reversed and everyone declined, some precipitously. The rotation has been OK but too much of the overworked relief failed, a lot at just the wrong time. One-run game results, excellent last year (31-17), were not good (21-27), a full 10-game loss, & late scoring often lost games.
Letting Bryant walk without resigning or replacing did leave a hole but certainly not 25-30 games-worth. The lockout greatly affected signing but what improvement is needed for a 107-win team?
Losing Gaussman was compensated by adding Rodon, Cobb, and Junis.
Perhaps the thought was this group won't win 107 games again but 90+ will make the playoffs. And there will be opportunity to fill holes and improve at the trading deadline. Unfortunately, when August 2 rolled around, the Giants were 19.5 games behind LA, 2 games under .500, and shortly after a 7-game losing streak.
The Churn didn't help a lot, and, as Doc suggested, discouraged players, especially those who were demonstrably under performing. Maybe it made them worse.
Mostly the Churn was just running in place, a little gained, a little lost. Prelander Berroa might be the worst getting nothing for a top 30-prospect but the haul received for Darin Ruf will cover it.
At the least, the Churn has been interesting.
I know a player who was recently in the Giants' farm system and he shared with me how dissatisfied the players (at all levels) are with the churn. Progression up the system is hampered by this, and our players at the big league level lack consistency and feel the seeming lack of commitment from the organization.
ReplyDeleteKapler is really just an extension of FZ, so this is all at FZ's bidding. He appears to pride himself with finding diamonds in the rough. However, fans frustrated with Kapler must understand that FZ will never fire him as long as he continues to do whatever he wants.
FZ has found a few diamonds in the rough but he's not the only GM who's ever found them. I'd say Brian Sabean's list is quite impressive.
DeleteDoc, I agree with everything you said-time to scale back the churn. Another thing to keep in mind is that we did not have any movement last offseason due to the lockout. I am looking forward to having an active hot stove season this year. It will be interesting to see what the Giants do. Farhan and the Giants need to be aggressive for sure. What does he got to be afraid of, it is not Farhan's money that will be spent.
ReplyDeleteHa ha! Not his money but now some it is Buster Posey's money.
Delete.....and seriously, FZ should be listening to Buster because I'm pretty sure the other owners are going to be listening to him.
Delete...almost like Buster is the adult they brought in to supervise FZ and make sure he plays with his toys nicely.
DeleteThe Churn: How FZ used the Churn this year compared to previous years may just be a case of urgency.
ReplyDeleteIn the past, The Churn has been (sort of) to improve around the edges. In 2022, there’s a humongous desire to avoid a collapse before our very eyes. It may have succeeded already if the Giants are able to go 5-3 to conclude the season at 81-81. Or, maybe that will happen in spite of the Churn!
Doc, you used the word “churn” as far back as 2014 to describe an entirely different process: December 29, 2014 “…the Giants used to churn kids like this out at a rate that seemed like 1 or 2 per season…” discussing Mikey Edie as a 5 tool prospect.
Then came the FZ era: you wrote on February 6, 2019 “Hot Stove Update: Giants Churn Bottom of Roster” when Jake Barrett was claimed off waivers from the D’backs. But this was different from what is going on now. You concluded with “This is a nice, risk-free move in a vacuum. What's missing here is what it wasn't, an upgrade at backup catcher, OF or pitcher, or pretty much anything else the Giants might need to compete in 2019.”
Today, late in the 2022 season, the Churn is for competing now.
Still back in 2019 preseason, you introduced a section: “As the Roster Churns” which elicited 18 comments! This post referenced 4 transactions with player coming and going.
Near the end of that forgettable season, September 24, you posted a review of FZ’s machinations with a terrific analysis: “Armchair GM: Are You Feeling the Churn?” It’s worth reading. Again.
There was more good stuff following the season including this (taken out of context) “Now, I'm as thrilled as anyone that Farhan was able to churn his way to adding Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon to the organization and that he was able to find such great bench guys as Donovan Solano and Steven Vogt, but nothing would have prevented him from finding those guys. Spending a few $ M in the offseason for a decent corner OF and SP would not have prevented him from finding those guys.”
"The Churn" and just "churn" and "churning" found their way into posts with a November 5 titled “Hot Stove Update: Keep on Choog....Churnin'!” which in addition to 4 churns graded “BFD” offered a question about Gabe Kapler hire.
“Churn” became more frequent and began being referred occasionally with Sluice Box.
Unforgettably, in February came “Spring Training Update: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The Churn” including “When FZ unleashed The Churn last spring, it was a very disorienting experience with players coming and going, sometimes within a 24 hour period!”
That, back in February, 2020, says it all, plus you reference “Someone Who I Can’t Remember His Name” who came and went in two churns!
This latest version of the Churn seems like desperation: after 2021’s unheralded success, this could be the greatest collapse in baseball history in a season following 100 or more wins. FZ does not want that. He would play Barry Bonds and Buster Posey this week if he could and thought it would help.
The collapse is real whether SF gets back to .500 or not, but 81-81 is not a losing season after having the best record in all baseball.
Oh my! I hope I didn't say too many dumb things in all those Churn posts. I get the ups and downs of individual seasons. My point is if you stand back and look at the big picture, FZ's stated mission for The Churn is to improve the margins of the roster. He's been working on the for 4+ years now. If you look at the last 5 active roster spots or the Last 10 40-man roster spots, the margins of the roster, are they significantly upgraded now compared to 2018 when he took over as VP?
DeleteNo, but perhaps he has drafted better?
DeleteThat's an iffy call, too, but the drafting for many years before FZ was not so good either, with 2018 being the best since, hmm, 2008 which was Posey and Crawford.
Belt and "he who cannot be named" in 2009 which could have been almost as good as 2008.
Got Webb (and Slater) in 2014.
Another top guy in 2016 traded away.
Still hope for Ramos from 2017.
Panik helped one year, Duffy was nice while he was around, and 2018 as much as we hope for it hasn't proved itself. Yet.