State of the Royals

The Kansas City Royals are an AL expansion franchise starting in 1969.  Per Wikipedia, the name refers to the annual American Royal horse and livestock competition and is a continuation of team names from the Negro League.  The Royals have had their ups and downs winning World Series in 1985 and 2015 and AL pennants in 1980 and 2014.  In between there have been many losing seasons due in part to a small TV market.  They are currently in another rebuilding stretch looking for a contention window.

Ownership:  Local businessman John Sherman purchased the team from David Glass in November 2019 for $1 Billion.  He made his stash in energy and salt mining.  His stated goal is to build a "sustainable winner."  He has prior ownership experience as a minority owner of the Cleveland Indians.

Grade C(but hopeful for better).

Management:  Longtime Dayton Moore is retained for now.  Moore is a traditional scouting oriented GM much maligned by SABR enthusiasts.  Moore got the last laugh by building back-to-back pennant winners in 2014 and 2015 and a World Series Championship in 2015.

World Series Champion Manager, Ned Yost, retired and Mike Matheny is the new manager.  Matheny's tenure as manager of the Cardinals received severe criticism for his managing decisions despite an overall winning record.

Grade C +.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Salvador Perez C, Ryan O'Hearn 1B, Nicky Lopez 2B, Maikel Franco 3B, Adalberto Mondesi SS, Alex Gordon LF, Whit Merrifield CF, Hunter Dozier RF, Jorge Soler DH.

Bench:  Cam Gallagher C, Ryan McBroom 1B, Matt Reynolds SS, Bubba Starling OF, Brett Phillips OF.

Starting Rotation:  Brad Keller RHP, Danny Duffy LHP, Jakob Junis RHP, Mike Montgomery LHP, Glenn Sparkman RHP.

Bullpen:  Ian Kennedy RHP(Closer), Scott Barlow RHP, Jorge Lopez RHP, Tim Hill LHP, Jesse Hahn RHP, Greg Holland RHP, Trevor Rosenthal RHP, Chance Adams RHP, Josh Staumont RHP.

There is some talent her, but it's spotty and thin, especially on the pitching side.  The Royals will need a few more high draft picks and farm system graduations to be competitive again.

Grade D+

Farm System:  High draft positions have started to replenish a depleted farm system.  2019 top pick, Bobby Witt Jr, is the top prospect but may be a couple of years away.  The Royals can expect more immediate help from Brady Singer RHP and Jackson Kowar RHP from the 2018 draft.  2020 top pick, Asa Lacy, should be a fast mover.

Grade C+.

Spring Training Update: The Restart

You will have to excuse me if I find the current roster situation thoroughly confusing.  There is a 60-man roster which includes an active roster and a "Taxi Squad."  But, there is still a 40 man major league roster.  There will be a 30 man active roster, but only for two weeks, then it will be reduced to 28 and then to 26 after another two weeks.  But the total roster will remain at 60 through the season which means it will start out with 30 players and end up with 34 on September 1.  But wait! The Giants only named 51 players to their spring roster, so there are 9 open spots on the taxi squad which may or may not be filled as time goes by.  It seems from a quick perusal of the rules it is a lot easier to add players to the 60 man roster than take them off(it sounds like if a player is dropped, they cannot come back on for the remainder of the season).  Got all that?  Good, because I don't!

As for predicting specific roster makeup, I gave up trying to rosterbate a FZ constructed roster a long time ago.  There are just so many players who FZ and Kap say they have big plans for and I don't really see how they all fit on even a 30 man roster let alone 26.  I mean, we have Darren Ruf who mashed in Spring Training Round 1 and FZ thinks can be a great DH.  But, the DH is also seen as a boon to Hunter Pence who nobody was excited about playing LF and Pence has a guaranteed contract.  Then there is Yolmer Sanchez who plays great D and who the Giants coaches seem to think they can teach to hit, but where does that leave Mauricio Dubon to say nothing of Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano?  Well, I guess Dubon can play CF, but then what is Billy Hamilton doing on the roster?  Oh yeah, with that expanded roster he's going to be the designated runner at 2B in extra-inning games.  And none of this frantic rosterbating included Pablo Sandoval who can play 3B, 1B, DH, PH and oh yeah, he can pitch too now that he's had more time to recover from TJ surgery. Oh, and how were they going to get a read on Jaylin Davis again?  Austin Slater is the player rep.  Will he even be on the team by Opening Day?  Of course, all this is before the Giants sign Yasiel Puig the day before the season starts which pretty much blows the whole thing up.

I would imagine the Giants, and most teams to use most or all of the extra roster space on pitching which means there will still be no more than 14 position spots where all the versatility and specialty roles can be squeezed in.

I noticed something about the new roster rules that may be a big blow to FZ's plans for rebuilding the Giants.  Trades can be made and there will be a trade deadline, but only players on the 60-man roster can be traded.  Other minor leaguers are off limits.  If this is true, it could severely limit FZ's ability to add long term organizational talent via deadline trading.

Happy rosterbating, everybody!  Hope you don't get a headache from it like me!

Scouting the Draft: Comping Kyle Harrison

There has been some disappointment among Giants fans, including me, that they did not get more out of their two compensation picks in the draft.  If you look at them in isolation and who the compensation was for, it's not a good look.  I mean, Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith for Nick Swiney and Jimmy Glowenke?  Yeah, not a good look.  But let's shuffle things up a bit and look at the draft as a whole.  What if those two picks are what gave the Giants enough bonus pool room to land Kyle Harrison in Round 3?  Then it becomes Bumgarner for Harrison or Bumgarner and Smith for Harrison and Swiney with Glowenke as the equivalent of their 3'rd round pick.  Those comps don't look so bad.  You can even squint hard and see Glowenke as being a not half-bad third rounder.  You could take it a step further and move Harrison up to the second round and bump Casey Schmitt down to one of the comp picks. Now you have a late first round talent(who got paid like one) in round two and a couple of second round talents in the comp slots with Glowenke being not a terrible 3'rd rounder.  Got all that?  Good! If not, maybe this helps:

Giant Alternate Universe Draft:

Round 1 #13:  Patrick Bailey C, College(NC State).

Round 2 #49:  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

Compensation Round #67:  Nick Swiney LHP, College(NC State).

Compensation Round #68:  Casey Schmitt 3B, College(SDSU).

Round 3 #85:  Jimmy Glowenke IF, College(Dallas Baptist).

Round 4 #114:  R. J. Dabovich RHP, College(Arizona St).

Round 5 #144:  Ryan Murphy RHP, College(Le Moyne(Div III).

Just saying I feel like if that was the order of the Giants draft there would have been a lot less complaining about it.  At least that's how I'm rolling with it.

Which brings us to finding comps for Kyle Harrison.  With all this in mind, we are going to look for lefty high school pitchers of similar size and stuff who were considered first round talents and have found success at the professional level.  First, let's review Harrison's scouting report:

Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.  6'2", 200 lbs.

PG:  "Electric performance at PG National running his FB up to 93 MPH in two dominant innings."  "Solid, athletic build with long arms and legs for his height and some room to fill out.  Easy and fluid delivery....mid to low 3/4 arm slot....loose and clean arm action...low effort.  Tight slurve type breaking ball that is tunneled well with his fastball and resulted in weak swings.  Nice change up with some sink to it...Spotted just about every pitch where he wanted for two innings."

Another scouting report talked about him having both a curveball and slider and how he uses the curveball as a fallback pitch which seems to help him get the slider back if it's off early in the game.

Yet another scouting report talked about his big game mentality and how De LaSalle HS is an elite program with a lot of pressure in HS playoffs and how well Kyle handled that pressure.

Now the comps.  Let's start with the Big Kahuna himself, the guy Harrison is "replacing".  What did his scouting reports look like back in 2007?

Madison Bumgarner LHP, HS.  6'5", 220 lbs. Drafted 2007 #10 overall.

So, Bummy was a physical monster even in HS so the comp maybe should end right there.  If you compare videos, there are similarities in the delivery.  Both have mid-low 3/4 arm angles with very natural and easy arm action.  To my eye, Harrison does not get quite the extension on the backswing and cocks his elbow which Bummy does not.  Whether this increases risk of elbow injury I can't say for sure, but I feel like it does.  One he gets going forward though, Harrison quickly gets the arm extended and into that easy, natural looking plane that is Bummy's trademark.  Bummy is described as having "Mid-90's FB and a cutter with a sweeping curve and changeup mentioned as afterthoughts.  That's basically what he was in the majors too, maybe a little less velocity.

Mackenzie Gore LHP, HS.  6'2", 197 lbs.  Drafted 2017 #3 overall.

Same size.  The thing about MacKenzie Gore that stands out for me is he was always less about velocity than pitchability.  PG:  "94 MPH LHP and can really pitch. Good breaking ball."  Available pre-draft scouting videos of Gore have him more in the low 90's with an advance 4-pitch mix of FB, slider, curveball and changeup.  He has a much higher leg kick than Harrison and a more of a high 3/4 arm slot which may help him get more depth on the breaking stuff.  Still, the overall scouting profile seems remarkably similar except Gore was a #3 overall pick while Harrison was both ranked and drafted lower.  Was that strength of draft class or is there something I'm missing here?

Brett Anderson LHP, HS.  6'4", 210 lbs.  Drafted Round 2 by D'Backs.

Remember when Brett Anderson was a prospect?  Definitely bigger in size(appears much heavier than 210 lbs in videos), but the rest of his PG scouting report sounds very familiar:  FB 93 MPH.  "...very smooth pitching mechanics with clean arm action....command of all three of his pitches and an advance knowledge of pitching.  consistently seen in the low 90's this summer and has pitched at the highest levels with great success."  On video, Brett Anderson looks a lot heavier than Harrison or Gore and I would say has a little less arm extension and fluidity to his delivery than Harrison, definitely a lot less than Bumgarner. I am thinking Anderson's weight may have gotten in the way some and contributed to his injuries over the years.

There you have it.  I think Kyle Harrison compares favorably to these 3 pitchers with MacKenzie Gore coming the closest to a comp out of HS with the caveat that there was/is clearly something about Gore that makes scouts rank consistently rank him higher that is not apparent to me.

State of the Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are at the bottom of an epic teardown/rebuild.  2020 is likely not the year they start to show improvement at the MLB level.  Tigers fans will have to be content with an improving farm system bolstered by a series of very high draft picks.

Ownership: 

When long term owner Mike Ilitch died in 2017, "win one for Mr I" became a moot issue.  Team ownership passed on to Ilitch Holdings chaired by his son, Christopher, who is also the controlling owner of the Tigers.  Mike Ilitch made his stash, valued at $6.1 Billion in 2016, as the founder of Little Ceasar's Pizza.  Chris Ilitch recently proclaimed he intends to own the Tigers for the long run and pointed to farm system rankings as evidence the team is on the right track.

Grade C.

Management: 

Tigers GM is Al Avila a long time baseball executive who started out scouting in Latin America for the Marlins for whom he signed Livan Hernandez and Miguel Cabrera.  He was a protege of Dave Dombrowski and took over as GM of the Tigers in 2015 when Dombrowski left.  Avila tends to be more of a traditional GM who trusts scouting over data.

Ron Gardenhire is entering his third season managing the Tigers after a long run as Manager of the Twins.  He has yet to show anything special in terms of managing skills other than the ability to stick around for a long time.

Grade C.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine: Austin Romine C, CJ Cron 1B, Jonathan Schoop 2B, Jeimer Candelario 3B, Niko Goodrum SS, Christin Stewart LF, Jacoby Jones CF, Cameron Maybin RF, Miguel Cabrera DH.

Bench:  Grayson Grenier C, Harold Castro IF, Jordy Mercer IF, Victor Reyes OF.

Starting Rotation:  Matthew Boyd LHP, Jordan Zimmermann RHP, Spencer Turnbull RHP, Ivan Nova RHP, Daniel Norris LHP.

Bullpen:  Joe Jimenez RHP(Closer), Buck Farmer RHP, Gregory Soto LHP, Jose Cisnero RHP, Bryan Garcia RHP, Rony Garcia RHP, David Mckay RHP.

This roster rivals the Orioles for worst in MLB. 

Grade F.

Farm System: 

Years of high draft picks are starting to have an impact on the system as the Tigers accumulate high ceiling prospects they hope to unleash in a wave to open an window of contention.  #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson boosts the hitting side while RHP's Casey Mize and Matt Manning give hope on the pitching side.  2019 first rounder Riley Greene looks like a future plus bat too. The system probably needs a couple more top 10 draft picks to be top notch.

Grade B

State of the Indians

The Cleveland Indians are a perfect example of why I am not a fan of the AL.  Boring city, boring team, boring league!  They have been an AL franchise under that name since 1915.  They actually have an overall winning record since then with 14 postseason appearances, 6 pennants but only 2 WS wins, the most recent in 1948.  They won 102 games as recently as 2017 and won 93 last season but now seem to be entering a rebuild phase.

Ownership:

The Indians have been owned by Larry Dolan since 2000.  He is a lawyer by trade and was a partner in Cleveland law firm, but the deep pockets belong to his brother Charles who made his stash in the cable TV industry.  Charles shared his wealth with the rest of the Dolan family via a family trust which Larry used to become a MLB owner.  Larry has been accused of penny pinching at times but seems to have supported the team appropriately when it had a chance to win.  There is a lot of current angst among fans about Francisco Lindor.  Unfortunately it is a fact that most players who reach free agency do not sign with their current team and Lindor seems set of testing free agency, so it trading him before that happens makes perfect baseball sense.

Grade B

Management:

Chris Antonetti has been the President of Baseball Operations since 2015.  His assistant is Mike Chernoff.  I have to confess to not following the Indians roster closely but they have been competitive during Antonetti's tenure so far.  His real test will be how he handles the apparent teardown/rebuild.

Terry Francona has been Manager of the Indians since 2012(wow!  Has it been that long?).  He is widely respected as one of the better managers in the game.  He has led them to the postseason several times but has not gotten them the ring they have been missing since 1948.

Grade B+.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Roberto Perez C, Carlos Santana 1B, Cesar Hernandez 2B, Jose Ramirez 3B, Francisco Lindor SS, Jordan Luplow LF, Oscar Mercado CF, Franmil Reyes RF, Domingo Santana DH.

Bench:  Sandy Leon C, Jake Bauers IF/OF, Christian Arroyo IF, Delino DeShields OF.

Starting Rotation:  Mike Clevinger RHP, Shane Bieber RHP, Carlos Carrasco RHP, Adam Plutko RHP, Aaron Civale RHP.

Bullpen:  Brad Hand LHP, Nick Wittgren RHP, Adam Cimber RHP, Oliver Perez LHP, Emmanuel Clase RHP, James Hoyt RHP, Jefry Rodriguez RHP, Zach Plesac RHP.

Lindor, Ramirez and Carlos Santana are established stars.  How long can Carlos Santana keep cranking out great seasons at the plate?  Will Lindor get traded by the deadline?  The rest of the starting nine are significant question marks.  The rotation is not what it used to be but still above average with some depth.

Grade B.

Farm System:

Top prospect Nolan Jones looks like a 3-true-outcomes power hitter.  Beyond that the system is not impressive.

Grade D.

Scouting the Draft: Comping Jimmy Glowenke

The Giants second compensation pick, #67 overall, in the 2020 draft was a player not to many fans were expecting, IF Jimmy Glowenke.  That might be due to his #171 pre-draft ranking on MLB Pipeline.  The name alone conjures images of a scrappy player and it turns out he played for a college, Dallas Baptist, that seems to specialize in over-achieving, scrappy players.  I thought for the Jimmy Glowenke comp post, it might be enlightening to look at some of those Dallas Baptist predecessors.  Here is a partial list of players drafted out of Dallas Baptist University:

Freddy Sanchez 2B(Played 1 season in 1999 then transferred to Oklahoma City University for his senior season then was drafted the Red Sox in 2000).

Lew Ford OF 1999

Ben Zobrist IF 2004

Ryan Goins IF 2009.

First, we'll review Glowenke's college stats then compare them to these other scrappy Dallas Baptist alumni:

Jimmy Glowenke IF.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 185 lbs.

2018:  .336/.432/.546, 16 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 5 SB, 31 BB, 26 K, 229 AB.
2019:  .328/.429/.467, 16 2B, 6 HR, 2 SB, 31 BB, 45 K, 244 AB.
2020:  .415/.458/.509, 2 2B, HR, SB, 5 BB, 5 K, 53 AB.
2019 CCBL:  .296, 6 2B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 14 K, 135 AB.

Scouting report is he is a surehanded IF but probably lack range for 2B and might not have arm or bat for 3B so 2B is most likely pro position. The hitting skills are obvious with excellent plate discipline and line-drive/gap power.

Freddy Sanchez 2B.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 200 lbs.

Giants fans should like this comp. Freddy's Giants career was not long but it was certainly impactful. I cannot find DBU stats for 1999, Freddy's junior season there.  He transferred to Oklahoma City University for his senior season, 2000, and hit .434 with 13 HR's.  DBU and OCU were both NAIA schools at the time.  We know enough about Freddy's MLB career, though, to know he was a very similar player to what Jimmy Glowenke would comp to.

Lew Ford OF.  B-R, T-R.  6'0" 190 lbs.

Again, I can't find any Dallas Baptist stats for Lew Ford except he still holds the DBU record for BA with a .507.  He actually had a pretty darn good MLB season for the Twins in 2004 with a line of .299/.381/.446, 31 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 20 SB, 67 BB, 75 K, 658 PA.  Again, similar size and hitting style as Jimmy Glowenke with a bit more speed on the basepaths.

Ben Zobrist IF.  B-S, T-R.  6'3", 200 lbs.

2004(Senior):  .378/.448/.590, 15 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 22 SB, 29 BB, 31 K, 261 PA.

Significantly bigger size and a switch-hitter and more speed.  The overall batting line is similar, though.  Glowenke would be unlikely to have Zobrist's peak power of 27 HR's.

Ryan Goins IF.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 185 lbs.

2007:  .267/.353/.333, 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 17 PA.
2008:  .357/.404/.599, 14 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 6 SB, 17 BB, 41 K, 232 PA.
2009:  .371/.478/.765, 17 HR, 2 2B, 22 HR, 11 SB, 46 BB, 36 K, 270 PA.

Similar size as Glowenke but bats left and hit for way more power in college.  Goins has had trouble finding traction at the MLB level with 2017 with the Blue Jays being the only season he has not split time between the majors and minor leagues.  Career MLB slash line of .230/.279/.335.  Goins had terrific plate discipline his junior season but was terrible the year before While Glowenke has shown excellent strike zone control his entire college career.

Conclusion:  Glowenke produced competitive stats from a school that has produced several major leaguers with similar profiles.  I would estimate that his absolute ceiling would be somewhere between Freddy Sanchez and Ben Zobrist.  A more physical version of Freddy Sanchez with a bit more power.  Definitely less power potential than Zobrist.  His likely ceiling is more in line with Lew Ford or Ryan Goins although I think he has a significantly better hit tool and plate discipline than Goins.

State of the White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have had a troubled history dating back to the 1919 "Black Sox" betting scandal.  They are currently in the upward trajectory of a brutal teardown/rebuild phase with brighter days on the field ahead.

Ownership: 

Jerry Reinsdorf has been the principle owner for over 35 years.  He made his stash after leveraging his experience as a CPA for the IRS into a real estate tax shelter business conglomerate.  His main business holdings are now his sports team empire including the Chicago Bulls and White Sox.  He is generally considered to be a hardliner in labor negotiations with the MLBPA and is the architect of the CBT and revenue sharing schemes which has pros and cons but has been mostly successful in achieving goals of improved competitive balance.  He has generally been willing to spend money on his teams when they have a chance to be competitive.

Grade B+. 

Management:

Baseball roster decisions are made by Senior VP/GM Rick Hahn since 2013.  He unsuccessfully tried to build a winner in his first 3 seasons and made one huge mistake trading Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres for RHP James Shields.  He went into full teardown mode after the 2016 season which is now starting to pay dividends in a much more competitive team with some of the top young talent in all of MLB.

Rick Renteria has been the field manager since 2017 and seems to to a competent job of leading the team.

Grade B.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Yasmani Grandal C, Jose Abreu 1B, Nick Madrigal 2B, Yoan Moncada 3B, Tim Anderson SS, Eloy Jimenez LF, Luis Robert CF, Nomar Mazara RF, Edwin Encarnacion DH.

Bench:  James McCann C, Danny Mendick IF, Adam Engel OF, Leury Garcia IF/OF.

Starting Rotation:  Lucas Giolito RHP, Dallas Keuchal LHP, Gio Gonzalez LHP, Dylan Cease RHP, Reynaldo Lopez RHP.

Bullpen:  Alex Colome RHP(Closer), Aaron Bummer LHP, Steve Cishek RHP, Kelvin Herrera RHP, Jace Fry LHP, Evan Marshall RHP, Jimmy Cordero RHP, Carson Fulmer RHP.

That's a potential championship lineup but the pitching is very thin and not competitive with most other contending rotations. 

Grade C+.

Farm System: 

The farm system has an excellent top four in Robert, Andrew Vaughn, Madrigal and flamethrower Michael Kopech who is coming off TJ surgery. It tails off sharply after that.  The White Sox did address a relative lack of organizational pitching by drafting LHP Garrett Crochet and RHP Jared Kelley in the 2020 draft.

Grade B.

Scouting the Draft: Giants Sign Three More UDFA's

The Giants signed three more UDFA's in the last week.  Let's take a look at the newest members of the Giants organization:

Brett Auerbach C/3B/OF, College(Alabama).  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 190 lbs.

2019:  .270/.364/.341, 12 2B, HR, 9 SB, 28 BB, 36 K, 211 AB.
2020:  .388/.506/.642, 8 2B, 3 HR, 12 SB, 17 BB, 8 K, 67 AB.
2019 CCBL:  .297, 3 3B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 15 BB, 34 K, 145 AB.

Auerbach is a college senior from Mission Viejo who starred for 2 years at Saddleback CC before transferring to Alabama.  He appeared to be having a breakout season before the shutdown.  His primary position appears to be catcher but is athletic enough to play anywhere.  Intriguing SB numbers for a guy of his build who plays catcher.  Obvious comp that comes to mind is Craig Biggio.  Odds are long but we all know how much FZ values versatile players who can help out behind the plate.

*********************************************************************************

Wil Jensen RHP, College(Pepperdine).  6'3", 170 lbs.

2017:  2-8, 4.61, 82 IP, 29 BB, 43 K.
2018:  5-0, 0.74, 48.1 IP, 8 BB, 33 K.
2020:  4-0, 2.19, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 26 K.

Tall, thin RHP underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018.  Came back at the end of 2019 to pitch 5.1 innings with 3 K's.  2020 was redshirt junior season.  Scouting report on Jensen gives him a 93 MPH FB with a potential plus changeup as well as a curve and slider.  On video he looks a bit more stout than his listed weight but is still lean and wiry strong with room to fill out. He pitches out of an upright "tall and fall" delivery showing loose arm action and a high 3/4 delivery.  This gives him downward plane on the FB and better depth on his breaking balls.  Jensen adds to a trend of the Giants under FZ looking for college pitchers who still have physical projection.

*********************************************************************************

Robert Emery C, College(USF).   B-R, T-R.  6'0", 215 lbs.

2018:  .150/.209/.175, 2B, 3 BB, 13 K, 40 AB.
2019:  .320/.386/.479, 16 2B, 5 HR, 18 BB, 41 K, 194 AB.
2020:  .381/.451/.540, 4 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 12 K, 63 AB. 
2018 NECBL:  .254, 7 2B, 6 HR, 14 BB, 24 K, 122 AB.

Older player who was a redshirt senior.  Has actually completed a masters degree in enterpreneurship and innovation.  Started his college career with Dartmouth in 2016 before transferring to his hometown college, USF.  His redshirt senior eligibility was extended due to COVID and he signed a letter of intent to transfer to Arkansas to play ball and work on a second masters degree.  He ended up signing with the Giants instead.  He's a local kid who grew up a Giants fan. There is a photo image of him out there sitting in a ballpark seat wearing a Giants cap when he looks like about 7 or 8 years old.  Most likely an organizational player.  I would say from his bio he is a candidate to be a future coach.

State of the Twins

In 1961 the Washington Senators moved to Bloomington, MN, a suburb of the Twin Cities Minneapolis and St. Paul.  The team was renamed the Twins and was one of the more successful franchises of the 1960's.  Since then, the team has had ups and lots of downs.  They won the World Series in 1987 and 1991 but had many last place finishes in the ensuing years.

Ownership:  Per Wikipedia, Carl Pohlad made his stash foreclosing farms during the Great Depression then investing in community banks.  Later he branched out and invested in a diverse mix of businesses which he and his family managed as active investors.  One of those investments was in the Twins MLB franchise which he purchased from Calvin Griffith in 1984.  At the time, Pohlad might have been the richest owner in MLB but had a reputation for penuriousness.  After his death in 2009, his business empire was divided between his three sons with Jim taking over as controlling owner of the Twins.

Jim Pohlad is involved in team operations but tends to leave baseball decisions to his managers.  He seems to be a bit more generous with the purse strings than Carl.

Grade:  B.

Management:  VP and Chief Baseball Officer is Derek Falvey and the GM is Thad Levine.  They have been in place since 2016.  Falvey got his start in baseball by independently scouting the Cape Cod League.  Since taking over management, Falvey and Levine have gradually built the team into a contender.

Manager is Rocco Baldelli who won AL Manager of the Year in his first season managing Twins in 2019.  At age 38, he became the youngest manager to win the award.  He is known to be extremely analytically inclined much like Gabe Kapler, current Giants Manager.

Grade B+.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Mitch Garver C, Miguel Sano 1B, Luis Arraez 2B, Josh Donaldson 3B, Jorge Polanco SS, Eddie Rosario LF, Byron Buxton CF, Max Kepler RF, Nelson Cruz DH.

Bench:  Alex Avila C, Marwin Gonzalez IF/OF, Ehire Adrianza IF, Wilians Astudillo C/IF/OF.

Starting Rotation:  Jose Berrios RHP, Jake Odirizzi RHP, Kenta Maeda RHP, Homer Bailey RHP, Randy Dobnak RHP.

Bullpen:  Taylor Rogers LHP(Closer), Trevor May RHP, Tyler Duffey RHP, Sergio Romo RHP, Tyler Clippard RHP, Zack Littell RHP, Rich Hill LHP, Michael Pineda RHP.

Josh Donaldson bolsters an offense that led MLB in HR's last season.  The bench is solid.  Some things need to go right for the starting pitching to be contending quality, but with the kind of run support they can expect, it's very doable.  Plenty of depth there when you factor in Rich Hill and Michael Pineda coming back from injuries.

Grade B+.

Farm System:  The top prospects in the Twins system need a bit more salt, but Royce Lewis is a 5-tool prospect who big things are expected of.  #3 Trevor Larnach is a top hitting prospect.  It gets a bit iffy after that.  Last years first round draft pick is #7 Keoni Cavaco who has a looong way to go.

Grade C.

Scouting the Draft: Comping Nick Swiney

Usually when we try to find a comparison player for a college draft pick, we scour the stat lines for similar college perfomances.  I decided to take a different tack with Giants Compensation Pick #67 overall, LHP Nick Swiney.  I decided to take what we know about his stuff and try to find MLB pitchers with a similar repertoire.  Here's what we know about Swiney's stuff:  He throws what appears to be a 4-seam fastball 91-93 MPH to both sides of the plate and likes to throw it up in the zone.  He also has a plus curveball and plus changeup which can both be out-pitches for him.  As near as I can tell, he does not throw any other pitches, not a slider, not a cutter, not a splitter(unless the changeup is a split change).  Now, in the Sabes/Righetti regime, the first thing the Giants pitching coaches would do with Swiney is teach him a cutter to give him a 4'th pitch and voila!  The FZ regime does not seem to be quite as enamored by the cutter, or even slider for that matter.  They seem to be harkening back to the old-school Dodgers under Ron Perranoski who refused to teach their pitching prospects the slider or sinker, preferring the classic 4-seam/Curve/Change combo so I am going to assume the Giants development guys will just concentrate on polishing up Swiney's current repertoire which seems to have an excellent chance of playing at the MLB level.

I then went to Fangraphs and looked up all every significant LHP I could find on every MLB roster(there actually aren't than many) and scrolled down their player page to the sections listing pitch types and percentages.  I was looking for for LHP's with similar repertoires.  To my surprise, I did not find that many.  Almost every LHP in the game either has 4 pitches which include a slider or cutter or they go FB/Slider/Change or FB/Curve/Slider, or they are 2-pitch guys like Drew Pomeranz.  I only came up with 4 names who have the classic 3 pitches and throw each of their secondary pitches at least 15% of the time:

Gio Gonzalez
The late Tyler Skaggs
Early Cole Hamels
Jesus Luzardo.

Luzardo's FB averages about 96 MPH so that's probably not a great comp for Swiney.  I believe Hamels threw a lot harder when he was younger too.  That leaves Gio and the late Tyler Skaggs as comps I was able to find.  Skaggs seemed to be coming into his own before his tragic death, so the performance part is a favorable comp.  Gio has been your classic #4 SP practically his whole career, but sure has been durable.  If Swiney has half of Gio's career, he would be a very successful Comp round pick. I seem to recall the reason why Perranoski hated the slider is he believed it was in injury inducer.  I would point out that current evidence suggests the #1 cause of arm injuries is velocity over 93 MPH, which could also explain some of the Giants recent draft decisions.  Of course, Swiney might be just like most other drafted pitchers and add a slider or cutter to his repertoire.  Then the comps are wide open, but a lefty with solid fastball command and two plus secondary pitches is a heckuva place to start.

State of the Rangers

The Texas Rangers plans to move into a new stadium this season were largely ruined by COVID 19.  More on that later.  The team reached a peak in 2010 when they lost to the Giants on the World Series and have been in a slow decline since.  Whether a recovery is around the corner or further decline remains to be seen.

Ownership:

The Rangers current ownership group is lead by co-chairmen Ray Davis and Bob Simpson who acquired the team for $586 M in a bankruptcy auction on 2010.  There Forbes valuation is currently $1.65 billion.  As for the new stadium, the city of Arlington's investment is capped at $500 M and projected costs are around $1.2-1.3 billion.  This has resulted in 2 separate capital calls to investors, again per Forbes, which makes the delayed season and likelihood of playing in empty stadiums fairly disastrous for the ownership group.  Talk about bad timing! Payroll has recently declined from upper 1/3 to middle 1/3 again per Forbes.  Whether that is by design or the normal ebb and flow of a rebuild/reload is unclear.

Grade C.

Management:

GM Jon Daniels has been at the management helm since 2005 when he became the youngest GM in history at age 28.  He has had his ups and downs but did get the team to the World Series against the Giants in 2010. We all know how that turned out!  Right now, it's a bit unclear if Daniels is orchestrating another rebuild or treading water.

Chris Woodward is entering the second year of a 3-year managerial contract.  Last year he led the team to a 78-84 record.

Grade C.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Robinson Chirinos C, Ronald Guzman 1B, Roughned Odor 2B, Todd Frazier 3B, Elvis Andrus SS, Willie Calhoun LF, Danny Santana CF, Joey Gallo RF, Shin-Soo Choo DH.

Bench:  Jeff Mathis C, Greg Bird 1B, Nick Solak IF/OF, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa IF.

Starting Rotation:  Corey Kluber RHP, Mike Minor LHP, Lance Lynn RHP, Kyle Gibson RHP, Jordan Lyles RHP.

Bullpen:  Jose LeClerc RHP(Closer), Rafael Montero RHP, Jesse Chaves RHP, Joely Rodriguez LHP, Brett Martin LHP, Luke Farrell RHP, Edinson Volquez RHP, Juan Nicasio RHP.

It's pretty tough to see any clear direction here with a hodgepodge of aging vets and one dimensional youngsters.  Danny Santana is probably the best all-around player.  The Rangers have made a concerted effort to build a rotation through signing mid-level free agents to 3-4 year contract and have had some success with that strategy.

Grade C.

Farm System:

When Josh Jung is your #1 ranked prospect, you probably don't have one of the top farm systems in the game.  Another head-scratching draft did not add much.

Grade D.

Scouting the Draft: Giants Sign UDFA Tyler Forner

Tyler Forner OF, HS.  B-R, T-L.  5'11", 185 lbs.

Tyler Forner is a graduate of Camas HS in Washington state.  He has a PG profile where he is credited with a 6.69 60 yd dash, which is well better than average.  OF velocity is only 76 which leads to questions about whether he has the arm to play OF. Exit velocity is a decent 83 MPH.  PG scouting report includes the following comments:  "...showed speed and range very well in the outfield, made some nice catches going up in the alley's from centerfield."  "....developing arm strength....makes accurate soft on line throws."  "....very short swing with right centerfield orientation., has hand quickness and some bat speed..."  "...high contact approach."  Good student.

Apparently Forner looked at all the undrafted college players going back to school as well as undrafted HS players choosing college.  He figured the pros offered more opportunity regardless of bonus amount and signed with the Giants.

I wonder why he bats RH when he appears to be a natural lefty.  About 75% of matchups will be against RHP's and since speed is obviously such a big part of his game, he's be a step closer to 1B batting from the left side.  I wonder if it is too late to take up switch-hitting?

The odds are against him but wish him the best and we will follow his pro career with interest when and if....

State of the Astros

It's the best of times and the worst of times for the Astros as they are one of the most successful teams on the field in recent years but also embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal that all but negated their success and drew hatred from fans and opposing players around the league.

Ownership:  Owner Jim Crane made his stash in the logistics and transportation business.  He bought the Astros in 2011 and fully supported the teardown/tank model of rebuilding engineered by GM Jeff Luhnow.  Scandal is not entirely new to Jim Crane as his company was accused of discriminatory hiring practices and war profiteering, and his personal life has been a bit on the messy side.  Interestingly, he is reportedly a supporter of the Democratic Party and golfing partner of Barack Obama.

Although no evidence has surfaced that Crane was aware of the sign-stealing issue, his handling of questions around it has come under fire.  At one point during a press conference, he claimed the sign-stealing did not affect the outcome of games then denied saying it less than a minute later.  In addition, there are reports that Luhnow led a toxic management culture in the front office that Crane was, or should have been, aware of.

Grade D.  This is tough.  The Astros have had tremendous on-field success during Crane's ownership but that success will be forever largely negated by the cheating and other scandals.  When all is said and done, you can't give the guy at the top a pass on responsibility.

Management:  

The Astros are under new management, so there is no track record to grade here.  GM James Click comes out of the ubiquitous Rays shop where he was VP of Baseball Operations.  He would be reasonably expected to continue an analytic approach.  On the other hand, new Manager Dusty Baker is about as old school as you can get.  Dusty is more of a leader/personnel type manager than baseball strategist and has always inspired his players to play with enthusiasm.

Grade B(incomplete).

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Martin Maldonado C, Yuli Gurriel 1B, Jose Altuve 2B, Alex Bregman 3B, Carlos Correa SS, Michael Brantley LF, George Springer CF, Josh Reddick RF, Yordan Alvarez DH.

Bench:  Dustin Garneau C, Aledmys Diaz IF, Kyle Tucker OF, Myles Straw IF/OF.

Starting Rotation:  Justin Verlander RHP, Zack Greinke RHP, Lance McCullers RHP, Jose Urquidy RHP, Austin Pruitt RHP.

Bullpen:  Roberto Osuna RHP(Closer), Ryan Pressley RHP, Joe Smith RHP, Josh James RHP, Brad Peacock RHP, Chris Devenski RHP, Joe Biagini RHP.

Grade A-.  Pretty tough to find much fault with this outfit...well, other than the cheating scandal part.  Maybe some age starting to creep in, particularly on the pitching side.  Otherwise, it's an elite roster which should compete once again for a World Series Championship.

Farm System:  

The system has thinned out a lot with trades and graduations.  Forrest Whitley is MLB's top Astros prospect and he's become a bit of an enigma.  Urquidy and Abraham Toro follow at #2 and #3 respectively.  I don't recognize any names in the rest of the top 10.  

Grade C

Scouting the Draft: Comping Casey Schmitt

The Giants drew a lot of commentary, both positive and negative, for drafting another catcher in the first round, but their second round pick also drew some polarizing commentary.  While most Giants draft watchers were hoping for a future ace pitcher in one of the top two rounds, they went hitter again in round 2 and one that was not ranked in the second round by most pre-draft analysts.  The Giants countered by pointing to Casey Schmitt's power potential and tremendous arm strength which allowed him to double as the SDSU Closer.  They also dropped the name Matt Chapman as a comp, which if Schmitt turns out as good as Matt Chapman it would be a major draft coup.  So let's break down that comp a bit more and see if the analogy holds up.

Casey Schmitt 3B, College(San Diego State).  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.  Age at draft:  21 yrs, 3 mos.

2018:  .264/.302/.346, 12 2B, HR, 11 BB, 29 K, 182 AB.
2019:  .315/.415/.450, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 30 K, 200 AB.
2020:  .323/.386/.452, 4 2B, 2 3B, 7 BB, 13 K, 62 AB.
2019 CCBL:  .248, 6 2B, 5 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 129 AB.

Matt Chapman 3B, College(CS Fullerton).  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 215 lbs. Age at draft:  21 yrs, 2 months.

2012:  .286/.340/.370, 10 2B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 29 K, 189 AB.
2013:  .285/.415/.457, 11 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 34 BB, 29 K, 186 AB.
2014:  .312/.412/.498, 16 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 27 BB, 26 K, 205 AB.

The Big West conference is a tougher conference, especially for hitters, but these two batting lines are about as similar as you can get over a 3 year period.  We have less information about relative arm strength and range at 3B, but the scouting reports are similar with Schmitty's pitching chops proof he is competitive or more with Chapman in the throwing tool.  It will be interesting to watch Schmitt's numbers once we are able to see him play in the pros. Chapman's HR power had a huge breakout in his first full pro season in 2015 in A+ ball and he was able to maintain that.  Schmitt will need a similar breakout in power at some point to continue the comp.

Conclusion:  Casey Schmitt comps well to Matt Chapman, but Chapman's power did not emerge until after he turned pro and Schmitt will have to show a similar power surge at some point which is not a given, though plausible given his frame.

State of the Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have had their ups and downs since their addition to the AL in the 1970's.  They are currently one of the more financially successful franchises but are currently in a rebuilding phase of baseball operations.

Ownership:  The Mariners are owned by an investment group led by John Stanton who made his stash in the cellular phone industry.  The ownership group seems content to let baseball management make roster decisions and seems willing to spend money when/if necessary to field a winning team.

Grade B+

Management:  "Trader" Jerry DiPoto is the GM since 2015.  For years, he could be counted on to lead the league in trades but with mixed results.  After all those trades, the team did not seem to be any closer to competing than when he started.  Last year, DiPoto cooled off the trading and announced a more traditional rebuild with trying to build up the farm system.

Grade C.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Tom Murphy C, Evan White 1B, Shed Long Jr 2B, Kyle Seager 3B, J.P. Crawford SS, Kyle Lewis LF, Mallex Smith CF, Jake Fraley RF, Daniel Vogelbach DH.

Bench:  Austin Nola C, Dee Gordon IF/OF, Dylan Moore IF, Carlos Gonzalez OF, Mitch Haniger OF(could be starting OF if healthy).

Starting Rotation:  Marco Gonzalez LHP, Yusei Kikuchi LHP, Justus Sheffield LHP, Kendall Gravemen RHP, Taijuan Walker RHP.

Bullpen:  Matt Magill RHP, Yoshihisa Hirano RHP, Erik Swanson RHP, Carl Edwards Jr RHP, Brandon Brennan RHP, Taylor Guilbeau LHP, Nestor Cortes LHP, Austin Adams RHP.

It's a decent enough starting nine but the entire pitching staff appears to be subpar and not ready to compete for a postseason berth.

Grade C-

Farm System:

The Mets handed Jerry DiPoto a huge gift to jumpstart his rebuild when they gave him top prospect Jarred Kelenic in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade.  The Mariners have another elite prospect in Julio Rodriguez a physical monster of an outfielder.  Former first round draft picks Evan White and. Kyle Lewis are still prospects who should start on Opening Day for the Mariners.  Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are the top pitching prospects.  It's a very solid farm system with elite talent at the top and impressive depth.

Grade B+.

Scouting the Draft: Giants Sign Two UDFA's......So Far

After a lot of talk about recruiting local UDFA's, the Giants signed a couple from other parts of the country....oh, I forgot.  North Carolina is part of Northern California!  Anyway, let's get acquainted with the two players the Giants signed as undrafted free agents.  Hopefully we'll be hearing some additional names added in the near future and maybe a few from Northern Carol....I mean California.

Carter Williams OF, College(North Carolina Central- Senior).  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 210 lbs.

2017:  .351/.427/.459, 14 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 12 SB, 25 BB, 34 K, 205 AB.
2018:  .307/.407/.521, 13 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 12 SB, 28 BB, 27 K, 192 AB.
2019:  .328/.394/.475, 14 2B, 5 HR, 14 SB, 23 BB, 21 K, 198 AB.
2020:  .316/.422/.368, 2 2B, 3 SB, 5 BB, 3 K, 38 AB.
2019 NECBL:  .353, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 17 SB, 22 BB, 25 K, 150 AB.

Terrific size, athletic looking frame.  Solid, consistent numbers throughout college career.  Knock is probably lack of game power and strength of competition in a relatively minor conference.  I am intrigued by the 17 SB's in the summer league.  There is projectable power in the frame and I am sure the Giants development people can't wait to start trying to unlock it.  Undoubtedly a project but one that appears to have a high ceiling.  Likely a round 6-10 pick if the draft had been that deep.

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Ty Weber RHP, College(Illinois-Senior).  6'4", 215 lbs.

2017:  2-7, 5.51, 78.1 IP, 40 BB, 53 K.
2018:  4-3, 3.84, 82.1 IP, 32 BB, 53 K.
2019:  4-3, 3.28, 79.2 IP, 32 BB, 46 K.
2020:  2-0, 1.31, 20.2 IP, 2 BB, 15 K.

Another college senior. Classic pitcher's size and frame.  Battled unimpressive BB and K rates through first 3 college seasons.  Appeared to be headed for a breakout senior season before shutdown.  Pitched shutout ball against Coastal Carolina and Texas A&M, both strong competition. Another project for the Driveline boys who definitely have something to work with.  Reminds me a bit of Joe Biagini.

State of the Angels

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have always been the "other" team in Southern California.  The Los Angeles Angels were originally an expansion franchise owned by western singer/media entrepreneur Gene Autry.  In their history, the Angels have won just one World Series championships much to the chagrin of Giants fans.  They currently seem to be in a no-man's land between rebuilding the farm system and spending big on veteran free agents.  Let's break it down:

Ownership:  Arte Moreno, who made a reported $8 billion stash on freeway billboards, bought the team from Disney in 2003.  He has been aggressive at spending money, and lots of it, on veteran free agent talent which has proven to be mixed blessing.  There is the thought out there that Moreno's free agent spending tends to be driven more by the marketing department than baseball operations. Sensing an opening when Frank McCourt owned the Dodgers, Moreno made a bid for regional supremacy in the baseball market by putting Los Angeles back in the name of the team but adding an odd twist with the Anaheim suffix.  He signed Albert Pujols for too much and too long about the same time. The move ultimately failed to alter the balance of power in the local sports dynamic either positively or negatively.  This offseason, he signed Anthony Rendon to another huge contract despite the Angels needing pitching much more than hitting.  He also reportedly scuttled trade with the Dodgers in a rage over Dodger delays that appeared to be a highly favorable trade from the Angels side.  Beyond that, Moreno is secretive about his personal life and has managed to stay out of controversy.

Grade B.

Management:  Billy Eppler has been GM since 2015. He has used the trade market to put veteran players around Mike Trout.  While the Angels have fielded good teams during his tenure, they have made just one postseason and suffered an early exit.  Eppler has also presided over a modest resurgence in the farm system.

Joe Maddon wore out his welcome in Chicago and now tries to work his magic for the team he coached for so many hears before getting a MLB manager job.

Grade C.

Current Roster:

Starting Eight:   Jason Castro C, Albert Pujols 1B, Tommy La Stella 2B, Anthony Rendon 3B, Andrelton Simmons SS, Justin Upton LF, Mike Trout CF, Brian Goodwin RF, Shohei Ohtani DH.

Bench:  Max Stassi C, David Fletcher IF, Luis Rengifo IF, Matt Thaiss IF.

Starting Rotation:  Andrew Heaney LHP, Julio Teheran RHP, Dylan Bundy RHP, Griffin Canning RHP, Matt Andriese RHP.

Bullpen:  Hansel Robles RHP(Closer), Ty Buttrey RHP, Keynon Middleton RHP, Noe Ramirez RHP, Justin Anderson RHP, Cam Bedrosian RHP, Dillon Peters LHP, Shohei Ohtani RHP.

The Angels roster continues to have a "stars and scrubs" quality to it and continues to have a yawning gap between the hitting and pitching sides of the plate.

Grade C+.

Farm System:  Jo Adell is one of the very top prospects in baseball.  He should be ready after a tad more seasoning on the farm.  Brandon Marsh and Jordyn Adams are also solid prospects, but it drops off dramatically after that and the overall system remains in the bottom half.

Grade C.

RIP Mike McCormick

The RIP's for players who I used to day dream about when I was listening to Giants games on the radio on summer afternoons in Northern California seem to be coming faster and faster.  Today it was Mike McCormick, a Giants lefthanded pitcher who had one of the more remarkable seasons I can remember in 1967.  McCormick died at the age of 81 of complications of Parkinson's Disease. 

Mike McCormick was a high school phenom from Pasadena, CA who signed with the New York Giants after graduation in 1956 for $50,000, a very large sum of money for the time.  MLB required that "bonus babies" had to remain on the MLB roster for 2 seasons after signing and as was the case with most of them, McCormick struggled.  After the move to San Francisco in 1958, he became a solid starting pitcher, though not exactly an ace.  His best season in that stretch was 1960 with a 2.70 ERA but with just a 15-12 record as he suffered from a lack of run support. 

A sore shoulder caused his performance to drop off in 1962.  Manager Alvin Dark thought he was malingering and he was traded in the offseason to the Orioles who then traded him on to the Washington Senators after one season.  He never regained his fastball and never pitched pain-free again, but learned how to rely on offspeed pitches, particularly a very good screwball, to get batters out. 

McCormick was traded back to the Giants before the 1967 season.  The Giants rotation featured the incomparable Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry who was coming off a breakout season in 1966 and Ray Sadecki who had come over in the Orlando Cepeda trade.  The Giants were hoping McCormick would extend the rotation just enough to get them out of their second place rut, an outcome that seemed more likely with the sudden retirement of Sandy Koufax from the Dodgers who had beaten the Giants out the previous two seasons.  McCormick did a whole lot more than anyone expected winning 22 games and the NL Cy Young award.  So, the Giants won the NL pennant going away, right?  Not so fast there, pardner!

Two things happened that season I have resented ever since.  You talk about a chip on your shoulder!  Man, that season gave me one that did not get even slightly smaller until the Giants finally won it all in 2010.  1.  1967 was inexplicably the only season in a fabulous run from 1963-1969 that Juan Marichal failed to win more than 20 games as he went just 14-10.  2.  Orlando Cepeda had a Hall of Fame season for the Cardinals to lead them to a wire-to-wire run to the 1967 NL Pennant by a easy margin. They went on the win the World Series against Carl Yastrzemski and the Boston Red Sox in 7 games.

Of course, Marichal bounced back in 1968 to have perhaps his greatest season but McCormick would never come close to his 1967 performance again.  He pitched decently for a couple more seasons before his stuff completely abandoned him.  He tried to mount comebacks via AAA for several more seasons but never made it back and finally retired in 1973 at the age of 34.

McCormick spent his post-baseball life selling business products in the Bay Area and doing promotional work for the Giants.

RIP Mike McCormick, a Forever Giant in my book!

Scouting the Draft: Shadow Drafting

Wow!  When the Giants went overslot to sign 3'rd round draft pick Kyle Harrison, they weren't just going a little bit over.  Word is Harrison's bonus is $2.5 M which is over 3 times the slot value for that pick.  This tends to confirm a lot of suspicions that the Giants other picks were all significantly underslot except possibly Patrick Bailey and it's likely his deal with come in a bit underslot as well.  So the question becomes, could the Giants have done better if they just played the draft straight and took the BPA who would sign for slot with each of their picks?  There is probably no way to know unless you did an exhaustive study of every bonus to every pick and who has time for that?  We don't know that information for most of the players yet anyway! 

Here is another way of looking at it.  Let's look at the 5 players taken after each of the Giants picks and see if we would trade the Giants pick for one of them at each level.

Round 1 #13.  Patrick Bailey C.

Justin Foscue 2B, College.  Big underslot deal. No.
Mick Abel RHP, HS.  A lot of people wanted Abel instead of Bailey, and he may have a higher ceiling than Bailey, but there is always a ton of risk with HS arms.
Ed Howard SS, HS.  Interesting player who I would have been happy with.  Bailey is much more likely to deliver the higher WAR value.
Nick Yorke SS, HS.  Waaay underslot and a head scratching pick for the BoSox.  Nope.
Bryce Jarvis RHP, College.  Now you're talking!  Love Jarvis and think he's close to MLB ready right now, but Bailey is at least 50-50 to have the better MLB career.

Conclusion:  None of the 5 picks to follow Patrick Bailey at #13 are significantly more likely to have a better MLB careeer.

Round 2 #49.  Casey Schmitt 3B. 

Evan Carter OF, HS.  Not even ranked on most draft boards. No.
Burl Carraway LHP, College.  Electric stuff but small size. Likely to end up in bullpen.
J.T. Ginn RHP, College.  Draft eligible sophomore, out with TJ.  Will likely require a mid-first round bonus to sign.
Freddy Zamora SS, College.  Out with injury.  Not a great hitter.  Nope.
Masyn Winn SS, HS.  Intriguing pick by the Cards.  Will he sign for slot or close to slot?  Would you rather have him than Kyle Harrison?  Probably not.

Conclusion:  You could make cases for Carraway, Ginn and Winn.  None are slam dunks to be better than Casey Schmitt.  Ginn and Winn are both likely to require overslot deals. 

Compensation Round #67 and 68.  Nick Swiney LHP, College.  Jimmy Glowenke SS, College.

Isaiah Greene OF, HS.  Interesting player who may well sign for close to slot.  Much higher ceiling than Glowenke.
Alec Burleson OF, College.  Don't know much about him but probably a better bet than Glowenke.
Samuel Infante SS, HS.  I don't know anything about him. 
Alex Santos RHP, HS.  Another interesting name who might sign for close to slot. 

Conclusion:  You could make a case that Greene and Santos were signable for close to slot and enough better than Swiney and Glowenke to throw Harrison under the bus.  Not an easy call, though.

Round 3, #85.  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

Tekoah Roby RHP, HS.  Waaay underslot. Nope.
Casey Martin SS, College.  Speedy but K's way too much.
Jordan Nwogu OF, College.  Did not scout him before the draft.
Blaze Jordan 3B, HS.  Country Breakfast Jr.  Probably requires overslot.  Huge bust potential.
Liam Norris LHP, HS.  Did not scout him before the draft.

Conclusion:  The game here is to get close enough to Harrison's value at slot to make you want to spend his extra bonus money somewhere else, like at #67 and #68.  Nobody here to make you begrudge Harrison's bonus. 

Round 4, #114.  R.J. Dabovich RHP, College.

Dylan Maclean LHP, HS. Another bizarre Rangers pick.
Carson Ragsdale RHP, College.  Intriguing size at 6'8", 225 lbs.  Otherwise did not scout him predraft.
Luke Little LHP, JC.  Probably could be signed for about the same bonus as Dabovitch. Little's ceiling seems higher to me.
Jeremy Wu-Yelland LHP, College.  Don't know anything about him.  Probably rather have Dabovich.
Matthew Dyer C, College.  Didn't scout him.

Conclusion:  I would have personally preferred the Giants take Luke Little here, but he's a lottery ticket too.  Just a pretty darn intriguing one at 6'8" and a triple digit FB.  Joey Wiemer OF and Ian Bedell RHP were the next two players taken.  Wiemer is very intriguing and I would have preferred Bedell over Dabovich likely for a similar bonus price.

Round 5, #144. Ryan Murphy RHP, College. 

Thomas Saggase, SS HS.  Another bizarro Rangers pick.
Baron Radcliff OF, College.  Who?
Shane Drohan LHP, College.  Ranked #146 by MLB Pipeline so maybe?
Brandon Pfaadt RHP, College.  Hey!  I'd draft him in round 5 for the name alone!
Eric Orze RHP, College.  Who?

Conclusion:  Eh, nobody here worth getting our tails tied in a knot over, but would love to have the Pfaadt kid for the name.

Overall Conclusion:  The Giants draft sequence to meet Harrison's bonus demands was probably as good or better than any reasonable alternative not including Harrison.  They probably could have had Harrison and still drafted Luke Little or Ian Bedell in Round 4. I would have preferred either to Dabovich but that is purely personal preference and no major game changer in draft value.

State of the Athletics

The Oakland A's are an ongoing embarrassment for MLB as they have been stuck in a terrible stadium situation for reasons that are not entirely clear.  This is a reason/excuse for ownership to severely limit spending on player payroll which ironically has led A's management under Billy Beane to be the darlings of the sabermetric world due to Beane's ability to field winning teams despite the aforementioned limitations.

Ownership:

Current owner is John Fisher, a billionaire worth an estimated $2.5 B.  His parents made their stash as owners of the Gap stores.  Per Wikipedia, his first job was working in the mailroom of the Republican National Committee.  He eventually got a business degree and his main holdings now are in real estate including the Fairmont hotels in San Francisco.  The A's were one of the first teams to announce a cessation of paying their minor leaguers.  This was reversed last week, possibly due to pressure of public opinion or because Fisher realized not paying his minor leaguers might have a chilling effect on signing a bunch of UDFA's for $10 K each.  Oh, and he reportedly donates very large sums of money to Republican dark money funds.

Grade F.

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Management:

The A's are still under the management of Billy Beane who has moved up in title but is still very much involved in player personnel decisions.  While Beane is respected for his baseball acumen, gotta wonder to what extent his baseball brilliance and savvy has enabled terrible ownership.

Bob Melvin has been Field Manager since 2011 and sports a winning record of 731-664 for a .524 winning percentage.

Grade A.

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Current Roster:

Starting Eight:  Sean Murphy C, Matt Olson 1B, Franklin Barreto 2B, Matt Chapman 3B, Marcus Semien SS, Mark Canha LF, Ramon Laureano CF, Stephen Piscotty RF, Kris Davis DH.

Bench:  Austin Allen C, Chad Pinder IF, Tony Kemp IF/OF, Vmail Machin IF, Robbie Grossman OF.

Starting Rotation:  Mike Fiers RHP, Sean Manaea LHP, Frankie Montas RHP, Jesus Luzardo LHP, AJ Puk LHP.

Bullpen:  Liam Hendricks RHP(Closer), Lou Trivino RHP, Yusmeiro Petit RHP, Jake Diekman LHP, Joakim Soria RHP, Daniel Mengdon RHP, Chris Bassitt RHP, J.B. Wendelken RHP.

The A's might have the most interesting roster in MLB.  It's a combination of established stars and young players, including several rookies, who are looking to become stars.  The risk is in the starting rotation where seeing Mike Fiers listed as the #1 starter is a red flag.  If all the young pitchers looking to bounce back from injury pitch up to their potential, Fiers could drop to #5 and it could be one of the best rotations in baseball.  If Fiers is still #1 at the end of the season, it could be one of the worst.

Grade B.

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Farm System:

3 of the top 4 prospects in the system, Sean Murphy, Jesus Luzardo and AJ Puk, will have major roles on the Opening Day roster.  That leaves a thin system.  The A's were the beneficiaries of Robert Puason's contract with ATL being vacated as part of the commissioner's punishment for cheating in the international market.  Puason should be a fairly fast mover in the system, but there are not many recognizable names after him in the MLB top 30 list.

Grade A-.

Scouting the Draft: Comping the Draft- Patrick Bailey

Comps are not a good way to analyze players but it sure is fun!  Even Farhan Zaidi can't seem to resist as he's been quoted giving out comps to several players the Giants drafted this week.  He laid a Yasmani Grandal comp on Patrick Bailey which gives poor Patrick some pretty big shoes to fill.  Still, it's a lot of fun.

Gotta admit, whenever I read about a switch-hitting catcher, it gets my heart beating a bit faster.  There's something almost mystical about a good hitter who can mash from both sides of the plate.  Just the idea of having the upper hand in any pitching matchup is pretty darn neato.  Historically, there have not been many really good ones and the number who can do it equally well from both sides of the plate is even smaller.  When you add in the relative rarity of a plus hitter out of the catcher position, it's like the holy grail of hitting!

I looked up a list of all-time catchers ranked by fWAR on Fangraphs.  There are not too many who were switch-hitters, although I probably missed some.  Let's take a look at some of the better ones.

1.  Ted Simmons.  fWAR= 54.2.  Drafted out of HS by the Cardinals, Round 1 pick #10 overall.

.285/.348/.437, 8.8 BB%, 7.2 K%, .152 Iso.

Ted Simmons is one of my favorite players of all time.  He was overshadowed in his career by Johnny Bench who hit for much more power, but Simmons was an incredible hitter.  He was also a great athlete and versatile as he played catcher, 1B, 3B, LF and RF over the course of his carer but mostly catcher.  He was more of a contact hitter with a decent walk rate but an extremely low K rate.  He had 20+ HR power at the peak of his career but was more of a gap-power hitter.  He was just elected to the HOF but won't be inducted until 2021 due to COVID shutdown.  He was in my HOF a long time ago.  Still the gold standard for switch-hitting catchers. He is the #11 highest career fWAR all time for catchers.

2.  Yasmani Grandal.  fWAR=  32.6.  Drafted out of college by the Reds in round 1, 12 overall.

.241/.348/.446, 13.9 BB%, 23.5 K%, .205 Iso.

Grandal is still playing and just signed a 4 years contract at age 31 with the White Sox so has a chance to add significantly to his career fWAR total.  Grandal is a classic Moneyball type hitter with high BB%, high K%, low BA, high Iso.  He has averaged right around 30 HR's per 600 PA's for his career.  He also has strong defensive numbers including high framing stats which is something that was not measured when Ted Simmons played.

I looked up Grandal's college stats just for fun:

2008:  .234/.358/.452, 6 2B, 7 HR, 22 BB, 31 K, 14.38 BB%, 20.26 K%, 153 PA.
2009:  .299/.414/.599, 11 2B, 16 HR, 33 BB, 37 K, 13.75 BB%, 15.42 K%, 240 PA.
2010:  .401/.528/.721, 24 2B, 15 HR, 57 BB, 35 K, 20.14 BB%, 12.37 K%, 283 PA.

Since we are comping here, let's also look at Patrick Bailey's college lines:

2018:  .321/.419/.604, 8 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 32 K, 187 AB.
2019:  .288/.390/.513, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 41 BB, 43 K, 236 AB.
2020:  .296/.466/.685, 3 2B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 54 AB.

Bailey's stat lines were better early on, but Grandal had the huge breakout his junior season.  We won't know what Bailey would have done over the course of his junior season.  He almost certainly would not have hit .400 like Grandal but the OBP and SLG% were right there with Grandal's in an extremely SSS.  Bailey's reputation for catcher defense is strong, so the Grandal comp does not look too farfetched.  Grandal has been crazy valuable over the course of his career.  Grandal stands at #37 in career fWAR all time for catchers.

3.  Mickey Tettleton.  fWAR 28.5.  Drafted Round 5 #118 overall by the A's out of college.

.241/.369/.449, 16.5 BB%, 22.8 K%, .208 Iso.

Hailing from Oklahoma, The Mick was, in fact, named after The Mick and was also a switch-hitter.  Tettleton's offensive profile is closer to Yasmani Grandal than Ted Simmons.  He played mostly catcher but also 1B, OF and DH.  He did have some positive defensive seasons but I don't think they measured defensive stats the same back in Tettleton's day.  Overall he had a poor defensive reputation.  I was not able to find his college stat lines.  He stands at #47 in catcher career fWAR.

4.  Victor Martinez.  fWAR= 26.9.  International signee.

.295/.360/.455, 8.9 BB%, 10.9 K%, .160 ISO.

VMart's batting line was more like Ted Simmons with low K's, high BA and more gap power although he hit 32 HR's one season.  VMart was a terrible fielder at every position, especially later in his career and was really more of a DH, although it appears he was a decent defensive catcher early in his career.  He ranks #57 in career fWAR for Catchers.

5.  Jason Varitek.  fWAR= 21.6.  Drafted Round 1, #14 overall.

.256/.314/.435, 10.5 BB%, 20.8 K%, .179 ISO.

Slightly above average defensive catcher.  More inconsistent offensively.  Had 3 consecutive seasons of 3.5+ fWAR at his peak.  Offensive profile more like Grandal and Bailey.  As for his college stats, Georgia Tech has had a lot of very good catchers, but Varitek was probably the top statistically as he hit over .400 for all 3 college seasons and is the school career leader in hits, doubles, HR's RBI, Runs and Total Bases.  Varitek ranks #76 in all time catcher career fWAR.

6.  Matt Wieters.  fWAR= 17.4.  Drafted Round 1 #5 overall.

.250/.313/.411, 8.3 BB%, 19.1 K%, .161 ISO.

I bet you did not know Matt Wieters' put up a 5.7 fWAR in his 3'rd MLB season in 2011.  He followed that up with a 4.5 in 2012 but then tailed off to 2.0 in 2013 and then suffered a series of injuries that have largely derailed his career.  He also has gone from being a major plus defender to being a liability, I think mostly due to framing data.  He is still playing, now with the Cardinals but is widely considered an enigma.  #100 in all time career fWAR for catchers.

Others:  Todd Hundley fWAR= 14.2, #141 overall.  Alan Ashby fWAR= 13.1, #147.  Chad Kreuter fWAR= 9.1 #194.  Hank Conger, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Dioner Navarro, Ryan Doumit.

Conclusion:  Given the similarities in college stat profiles and the strength of conference play, Yasmani Grandal is probably the closest comp to Patrick Bailey, as comps go.  That is probably his absolute ceiling.  If his career comes close to resembling Yasmani Grandal's, it's a great pick.

State of the Nationals

We'll return from intensive draft coverage to continue our State of series.  We'll wrap up the NL today with the 2019 World Series Championship Nationals.

Ownership:

The Nationals are owned by the Lerner family since 2006.  Patriarch Ted Lerner made his stash on real estate in the Washingon DC area.  He's now 92 years old and his son, Mark Lerner, is the principle owner now.  The Lerners have been willing to spend a lot of money on player payroll both to acquire free agent talent and to keep homegrown players...up to a point.  Unlike many owners, they seem to have a relationship with agent Scott Boras and are willing to sign his players.  They have tended to use a lot of deferred salary as a way of making the total package acceptable to Boras and his clients while keeping yearly spending under control.  Whether that will eventually catch up with them remains to be seen.  It doesn't seem to have yet.

Grade A

Management:

Mike Rizzo has been GM since 2009 and Team President since 2013.  He has kept a competitive team on the field most of his tenure through aggressive free agent signings, trades and a strong farm system fed by both drafted and international players.

Grade A

Current Roster:

Starting Eight:  Kurt Suzuki C, Eric Thames 1B, Starlin Castro 2B, Carter Kieboom 3B, Trea Turner SS, Juan Soto LF, Victor Robles CF, Adam Eaton RF.

Bench:  Yan Gomes C, Ryan Zimmerman 1B, Howie Kendrick IF/OF, Asdrubal Cabrera IF, Michael Taylor OF.

Starting Rotation:  Max Scherzer RHP, Stephen Strasburg RHP, Patrick Corbin LHP, Anibal Sanchez RHP, Joe Ross RHP.

Bullpen:  Sean Doolittle LHP(Closer), Will Harris RHP, Daniel Hudson RHP, Tanner Rainey RHP, Wander Suero RHP, Roenis Elias LHP, Austin Voth RHP.

The Nationals felt they could only keep one of their elite free agents and opted to re-sign Strasburg and let Rendon go.  They think they have a replacement for Rendon in rookie Carter Kieboom.  That's a big load to put on the rook!  Otherwise, they will try to repeat with the formula of lower cost veteran talent complementing a core of stars.  As Giants fans know, it's crazy hard to repeat.

Grade B.

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Farm System:

The system has thinned out quite a bit and drops off dramatically after #1 Kieboom.  Gigantic pitcher Jackson Rutledge, 2019 first round draft pick, is probably the second best prospect in the organization.

Grade C.

Scouting the Draft: Day 2 Review

It seems like the Giants draft strategy for Day 2 was to look up all the players DrB profiled and ranked in his draft board, then make sure to pick different ones!  Gotta admit, there was more than one WTF moment as I checked the Draft Tracker through the afternoon.  As I start the Day 2 recap, I honestly don't know what my opinion will be in the end, so let's get right to it and break it down.

Round 2 #49.

Casey Schmitt 3B, College(San Diego St.).  B-R, T-R, 6'2", 200 lbs.

2018:  1-1, 0.28, 32 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 9 Saves.
2019:  3-3, 3.77, 43 IP, 16 BB,  44 K, 8 Saves.
2020:  0-1, 3.75, 12 IP, 5 BB, 10 K, 6 Saves.
2019 CCBL:  1-0, 2.45, 22 IP, 10 BB, 26 K, 3 Saves.

2018:  .264/.302/.346, 12 2B, HR, 11 BB, 29 K, 182 AB.
2019:  .315/.415/.450, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 30 K, 200 AB.
2020:  .323/.386/.452, 4 2B, 2 3B, 7 BB, 13 K, 62 AB.
2019:  .248, 6 2B, 5 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 129 AB.

Casey Schmitt is a college Closer. The Giants need pitching in their system...wait, what?  Casey Schmitt is also a legitimate 2-way player so of course the Giants drafted him as a 3B/hitter.  Although he has some pop in his bat, when you consider he played for San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference, it's pretty easy to think he might be a better pitcher than hitter.  The Giants think there is more power to unlock here and he's got the size to back that up.  The history of 2-way players is not great, but maybe Schmitty will beat the odds?  So where did Fangraphs have him ranked on their board?  #87.  MLB Pipeline had him at #117.  Now, rankings can get it wrong, but it seems like maybe this was an underslot target for the Giants?

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Compensation Pick #67.

Nick Swiney LHP, College(North Carolina St).  6'3", 187 lbs.

2018:  4-0, 3.52, 30.2 IP, 18 BB, 37 K.
2019:  7-1, 4.61, 56.2 IP, 31 BB, 95 K.
2020:  4-0, 1.29, 28 IP, 6 BB, 42 K.
2019 CCBL:  1-0, 2.70, 3.1 IP, 1 BB, 5 K.

Nick Swiney looked like he was breaking out as a SP with NC State before the shutdown.  His FB was a tick slower as a SP running 89-93 MPH, but he backed that up with a "wipeout" curveball and added a changeup MLB called a "revelation" with "deceptive fade."  In his first two collegiate seasons, his FB topped out at 95 MPH as a reliever.  The size and scouting report reminds me of Noah Lowry.  Memba him?  Gotta wonder what Lowry would have accomplished if his career hadn't been derailed by a degenerative condition in his cervical spine.  Andrew Suarez is another comp that comes to mind.  This is probably good value at this slot as Swiney as a couple of prominent mock drafts placed him late in the first round.  Still, I was kind of hoping for more than a high floor/low ceiling college pitcher in this slot.  And Will Wilson, Patrick Bailey, Nick Swiney, what's with the North Carolina St obsession?

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Compensation Pick #68.

Jimmy Glowenke SS, College(Dallas Baptist).  B-R, T-R.  5'10", 185 lbs.

2018:  .336/.432/.546, 16 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 31 BB, 26 K, 229 AB.
2019:  .328/.429/.467, 16 2B, 6 HR, 31 BB, 45 K, 244 AB.
2020:  .415/.458/.509, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 53 AB.
2019 CCBL:  .296, 6 2B, 2 HR, 135 AB.

The name alone screams of scrappiness.  One of the better hitting college shortstops who profiles more as a utility player.  Best tool is hit, but with very limited power projection and not enough range to stick at SS in the pros.  Probably an underslot target here.

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Round 3 Pick #85.

Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.   6"2", 200 lbs.

We'll start with the PG scouting report.  FB velocity 93.  "Electric performance at PG National running his FB up to 93 MPH in two dominant innings."  "Solid, athletic build with long arms and legs for his height and some room to fill out.  Easy and fluid delivery from a low 3/4 arm slot.....loose and clear arm action....hides the ball well....low effort.  Tight slurve type breaking ball that is tunneled well with his fastball and resulted in weak swings.  Nice changeup with some sink to it."

Harrison made one start in 2020 before the shutdown and reportedly maintained 93 MPH velocity into the 5'th inning.

Prospects Live had him as their top ranked HS lefty.  They mocked him to the Nationals at #72 and called him "an absolute steal" there.

I guess my comp is Seth Corry with a lot better control and command at the same stage.  If he's a better version of Seth Corry, that's actually amazingly good!  My concerns would be 1.  His ceiling seems a on the limited side for a big overslot deal and 2.  What was the opportunity cost to the Giants in getting the bonus pool money to work out?

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Round 4 Pick #114.

R. J. Dabovich RHP, College(Arizona St).  6'3", 215 lbs.

2019:  7-1, 4.75, 53 IP, 26 BB, 47 K, 3 Saves.
2020:  0-0, 0.77, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 17 K's, 4 Saves.
2019 CCBL:  1-0, 3.31, 19 IP, 5 BB, 29 K.

Big bodied college closer with two plus pitches and 97 MPH FB velocity.  High ceiling if control/command issues can be corrected, but that is never a given.  Dominated the Cape Cod League.

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Round 5 Pick #144.

Ryan Murphy RHP, College(Le Moyne).  6'1'', 190 lbs.

2018:  7-4, 2.60, 90 IP, 16 BB, 81 K.
2019:  7-4, 4.07, 90.2 IP, 24 BB, 98 K.
2020:  2-1, 3.91, 23 IP, 4 BB, 36 K.

Small RHP starter for a DII school.  Lower end velocity on the FB but has a full 4-pitch mix with good command.  These types usually have a ceiling in A+ or AA, but we'll see.

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I like Kyle Harrison, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed with the overall talent haul here.  I considered this a deep draft with a great opportunity for the Giants to turbocharge their farm system.  I feel they whiffed on that opportunity.

Contrast this with what the Cardinals did, and I think we would all agree the Cardinals have a record of draft savviness, as they took high ceiling HS talent Masyn Winn and "Tink" Hence in rounds 2 and 3 and then Ian Bedell, a personal fave of mine in round 4.

Gotta admit it was a strange draft all around for me as more than a few players who I had ranked fairly high fell to the lower reaches of the draft or went completely undrafted, I assume due to signability issues.

Scouting the Draft: Post First Round Thoughts

Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St).  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 207 lbs.

2018:  .321/.419/.604, 8 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 32 K, 12.56 BB%, 14.35 K%, 223 PA.
2019:  .288/.390/.513, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 41 BB, 43 K, 14.55 BB%, 15.25 K%, 282 PA.
2020:  .296/.466/.685, 3 2B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 23.29 BB%, 24.66 K%, 73 PA.

If you would like to read my pre-draft profile on Patrick Bailey, you can find it linked to the left, posted December 28, 2019.  Bailey is a plus defensive catcher who started switch-hitting at age 11 when a coach told him the second fastest route to the major leagues is switch-hitting catcher.  The fastest?  LHP!  I had Bailey ranked #10 on my draft board and had him mock drafted to the White Sox at #11 along with most other late mock drafts.  Fangraphs had him ranked at #12 and MLB Pipeline had him at #17.  So obviously, I think the Giants got nice value with the pick.  I mean, I had only 12 players in the entire draft ranked higher than #13 and Bailey was one of them!  Of course, I also had 3 other players ranked higher than Bailey who were also available at #13, Bryse Jarvis RHP, Garrett Mitchell OF, Cole Wilcox RHP.  Jarvis lasted until #18 to the D'Backs, Mitchell fell to #20 to the Mets and Cole Wilcox did not hear his name called on Day 1. So it's likely that Bailey was indeed the BPA on the Giants board here.

So, do you think we are starting to see a type for FZ's first round draft tendencies?  Patrick Bailey and Hunter Bishop are remarkably similar hitters.  Extreme 3 true outcomes! Do you get the idea FZ does not care about BA or K's as long as the OBP and SLG% are there?  That's old school Moneyball there and don't you forget it!

Lots of complaints on other sites about using a first round pick on a catcher when Joey Bart is already in the system.  First of all, Jarvis, Mitchell and Wilcox notwithstanding, Bailey was very likely the highest ranked prospect on the Giants draft board when their turn came.  Best.  Player.  Available!  Simple as that. Secondly, Bailey and Bart are both athletic enough to play other positions at least part of the time so there is room for both on one future roster.  That will be even more true with the almost certain advent of the universal DH.

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Other picks I liked:

Max Meyer RHP, Marlins #3.  Most mocks had Asa Lacy here.  I had Meyer ahead of Lacy so obviously think the Marlins made the right pick.

Bryse Jarvis RHP, D'Backs #18.  Actually I didn't like this pick.  I mean, I love Bryse Jarvis and all, but I hate that he ended up with the D'Backs.  Mike Hazen strikes again!

Jordan Walker 3B, Cardinals #21.  The Cardinals are a savvy organization.  I am pretty stoked that my bullishness on Jordan Walker was validated by the Cardinals taking him at #21 overall.  That might still be undervaluing him.  Some bust potential here, but the ceiling is to die for.

Bobby Miller RHP, Dodgers #29.  Again, I love the player, hate the team.

Justin Lange RHP, Padres #34.  Padres just keep adding high ceiling talent after high ceiling talent.  One of the more projectable HS pitchers in the draft.  Hey Farhan!  You might want to pay attention to what the Padres are doing in the draft because it's working!

Picks I did not like:

Heston Kjerstad OF, Orioles #2.  Hey!  I admit Austin Martin has his warts, but Kjerstad at #2 overall is a huge overdraft.  Kjerstad was mocked to the Pirates on quite a few boards.  The Bucs ended up with Nick Gonzalez.  The Orioles did the Bucs a favor!  Just sayin'

Reid Detmers LHP, Angels.  I actually liked the pick because it guaranteed the Giants would not draft him.  Multiple red flags that his stuff is not going to translate to the majors.

Garrett Crochet LHP, White Sox.  OK, I liked this one too.  Not only did it guarantee the Giants would not draft what I consider a huge injury risk but it enabled the Giants to take Bailey at #13, a player I ranked at #10.

Nick Yorke 2B.  Red Sox.  Truly bizarre!  This was such a bad pick that Dan O'Dowd actually speculated out loud on MLB's own channel that this might be a forfeit pick punting to a compensation pick in next year's draft.  Apparently that is not the case, but we'll see. Wow!

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As Day 2 dawns, let's look at who might be available to the Giants at #49 which is the 13'th pick in the round.  As I have been saying and as I predicted, college hitters have been jumping up the draft and HS hitters have remained surprisingly strong which means pitchers are piling up.  Of the top 15 remaining prospects, just one, Dillon Dingler, is a hitter.  Here's what I have with their placement on my draft board:

9.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Soph eligible).
18.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
24. Dillon Dingler C, College.
25.  Kyle Nicolas RHP, College.
28.  Ian Bedell RHP, College.
29.  Chris McMahon RHP, College.
31.  Franco Aleman RHP, JC.
33.  Tanner Witt RHP, HS(2-way player).
34.  Ryan Hagenow RHP, HS.
38.  Cole Henry RHP, College.
39.  Alex Santos RHP, HS.
40.  Alejandro Rosario RHP, HS.
41.  Nick Griffith LHP, HS.
43.  JT Ginn RHP, College(Soph eligible/TJ).
45.  Dax Fulton LHP, HS(TJ).

Usually when players of Wilcox and Kelley's caliber fall this far, it's because they are unsignable, so they may be effectively off the board for the Giants.

Scouting the Draft: Live Blog

Hey everybody!  We'll try some live-blogging here.   Just got home from work and the board is already blown up with Orioles taking Heston Kjerstad at #2.  Suspect this is an underslot bonus situation.

Tork goes #1 overall, so no surprise there.  Great anchor to the Tigers future lineup.

I had Max Meyer as my #1 pitcher.  The Marlins agreed and popped him at #3.

Royals grab Asa Lacy when he falls to them at #4.

How's everybody doing?

BJ's were linked to Max Meyer but he went off the board at #3 so they settle for the consensus #2 ranked player in the draft.

Everybody thought Mariners would take Nick Gonzalez if he was on the board, but we have a run on college pitching.  Emerson Hancock is the most projectable college pitcher in the draft.  Current mid-upper 90's velocity but the frame is incredible.  There is a lot more in the tank there.

....and Gonzalez goes to the Pirates, a very Piratesy pick!  Very limited physical projection and he's limited to 2B, but the bat could be special.  Concerns about strength of competition and environment at New Mexico St, but he also hit well in the Cape Cod League.

Hey! I got one right!  Sweet swinging Robert Hassell to the Padres who continue to rake in high ceiling players.  He's from Tennessee and committed to Vandy but Padres must believe they have a deal.

Most boards had Zac Veen ahead of Hassell.  Now he'll get to inflate his numbers in Coors Field.  Reminds a lot of people of Christian Yelich.

Whew!  I don't have to worry about the Giants making a huge mistake and taking Reid Detmers. Angels take care of that!  ....and now I've hit on 2 of the last 3 picks.

Dodged another bullet with Crochet off the board.  Tremendous size and stuff for a lefty, but risk is sky high, IMO.

Gettin down to it.  Early on I thought Austin Hendrick was the Giants target and I still think the Soderstrom rumors may be a smokescreen.  Hendrick still on the board.  Kelley and Abel the two HS pitching studs are still there too.

Hendrick off the board at #12 to the Reds.  Do Giants go with Soderstrom, a pitcher or do they go underslot?  I'd love Cole Wilcox or Bryse Jarvis!  Studs galore with multiple HS hitters, pitchers and College pitching studs.  Don't forget Garrett Mitchell too!

Longenhagen says Patrick Bailey..... and it's Bailey!  Tyler Soderstrom except 3 years closer to the majors.... and I had him at #10 on my board 2 slots ahead of Soderstrom!

I thought Bailey would go to the White Sox at #11 so he was not on my board for my mock draft, but love the pick. Giants get great value and can probably sign him modestly below slot.

Ha!  Foscue to the Rangers at 14! Love it! I can see the rationale, but I would have been disappointed with Foscue.  MLB panel seems pretty lukewarm about Foscue.

Mick Abel first HS pitcher off the board to the Phillies.  Most projectable HS pitcher in the draft.  Reminds me of Michael Kopech in terms of projection at time of draft.

Ed Howard to his hometown Cubs.  Interesting pick for the Cubbies.

Garrett Mitchell dropping.  Is it because of the Type 1 DM or lack of game power?

Wow!  Red Sox go WAY off the board with Nick Yorke 2B, HS.  Nick who?  I profiled close to 100 draft prospects and he was not one of them.  HS 2B?  They must REALLY believe in the bat!

D'Backs take one of my favorite players in the draft, Bryse Jarvis.  Not good news for Giants fans.

Pete Crow-Armstrong was born to play in The Big Apple!

Garrett Mitchell finally goes to the BrewCrew.

The run on college pitchers kind of fizzled.  Looks like there could be a whole flotilla of them available in Round 2.

Whoa!  Looks like somebody with a pretty darn strong track record in the draft also likes Jordan Walker!  Most physical player in the draft.  This year's Jo Adell.  Cardinals crush the draft once again!

Cade Cavalli to the Nationals.  Big, physical pitcher who some mocks had going to the Giants.  Has had come injury issues in past years.

Indians go for HS SS in Carson Tucker.  Not going to make Indians fans forget Francisco Lindor.

Nick Bitsko is the second HS pitcher off the board to the Rays.  Very projectable RHP but needs development.  Rays are loaded with pitching prospects, so they can be patient.

Braves take Jared Shuster, a late rising college lefty from Wake Forest. I had him at #35.

Soderstrom to the A's at #26.

Aaron Sabato to the Twins.  Great bat, bad body.  There's gonna be a huge run on college pitchers. When does it start?

Austin Wells to the Yanks.  Love, love, love the bat.  Where will he play?

Bad Guys are up....darn!  Big physical college RHP, Bobby Miller.  Very projectable.  I'm sure the Dodgers will develop him. #22 on my board.

Not a big fan of Westburg or what the Orioles are doing in this draft.

This may be the start of the college pitcher run.  Carmen Mlodzinski, a burly RHP from South Carolina to the Bucs at #31.  Pairs up with Nick Gonzalez at #7. Nice hitting/pitching combo picks.

As I predicted, lots of college bats being drafted higher than I had them on my board, but what do I Know?  Nick Loftin to the Royals at #32 to back up Asa Lacy at #4.

D'Backs get two very solid college pitchers back-to-back Bryse Jarvis with a more projectable Slade Cecconi.

Ugh!  Another HS talent with a sky high ceiling to the Padres in Justin Lange RHP.  Padres already had one of the top systems in all of baseball and they just got a whole lot stronger!

Rockies going for HS position players.  Drew Romo is a defense-first prep C who might hit.

Not that there is anything wrong with Tanner Burns but I'm underwhelmed by the Indians haul here after taking Carson Tucker at #23.  But who cares about the Cleveland Indians?

Rays go for Alika Williams.  True college SS but bat is on the weak side.  Probably an underslot deal to help them sign Bitsko.

That's it for Day 1.  Patrick Bailey is not a flashy pick but Giants got him later than I had him on my board and my mock draft so gotta love it. Once again, FZ goes for a 3 true outcomes college hitter who can play up the middle.