Scouting the Trade Market: Zack Greinke

Before we dig into an intriguing and likely polarizing potential trade target, let's do a bit of housekeeping on where the Giants stand in regard to payroll room.  First of all, the Giants likely have close to unlimited resources for player payroll.  What held them back in 2018 was a desire to stay under the CBT threshold to avoid some nasty penalties that would kick in this year if they didn't.  You have to look at Cot's Tax Tracker shows that as of right now, they are committed to a bit over $168 M.  The Threshold rises significantly next year to $206 M giving them $37.8 M to spend before they reach it.  Looking ahead, they are committed to $132 M in 2020 and $96 M in 2021 so they are not in terrible shape in future seasons.  The Giants can also go as much as $20 M above threshold before the harsher penalties start kicking in so they might be willing to spend up $57 M for 2019 on player acquisition.

The conventional wisdom is that the Giants should start paring down payroll, try to dump big longterm contracts and set themselves up for a rebuild which would hopefully peak early next decade.  The problem with that scenario is the Giants have openly stated that is not an option.  They want to try to win in 2019 plus build for the future.  Crazy as it seems, if you look at the numbers above, they may well have the resources to do just that.

The D'Backs are openly considering a teardown of their current team as their window to win with Paul Goldschmidt is rapidly shrinking with must 1 more season before he becomes a FA.  The lions share of their payroll commitment is to one player, Zack Greinke.  If they are contemplating trading Paul Goldschmidt, then they almost certainly would jump at an opportunity to shed Greinke's salary even though Greinke has been earning his keep on the field.  Greinke has 3 years/$104.5 M left on his contract with an AAV of $34.4 M which is pretty close to his actual yearly compensation.  It's my understanding that some of that about $40 M of the total money is deferred beyond the end of the contract.  There is also a small bonus that activates if he is traded.

So here's the question: What if the Giants zigged when everyone says they should zag?  What if they took on Zack Greinke and all or part of his remaining contract?  On the surface, adding his contract would put the Giants right back up against the threshold all by itself which is clearly a bad idea.  But there's the question of how much overage the Giants might be willing to pay and their might be some ways to mitigate Greinke's cost.  As MLBTR pointed out, the D'Backs probably don't have to take back much of Greinke's cost because he appears to have plenty of value left but there might be some wiggle room.  They probably would balk at taking back the $73.3 M left on Evan Longoria's contract, but what if they took back Mark Melancon and the $31 M left on his deal?  What if they agreed to pay all or part of the deferred money?  Those scenarios could allow the Giants to add Greinke and still have money left over to upgrade the OF.  Let's break down what Zack Greinke brings to the table:

Performance:  Greinke is not what he was in his prime, but he's turned in solid numbers in his 3 years with the D'Backs with fWARs of 2.2, 5.1 and 3.5.  He's thrown over 200 innings in 4 of the last 5 seasons with steady K and BB rates with a modest GB tendency.  The one area in which he has been worse than in LA is HR/FB which should improve with pitching half his games in AT&T Park.

Stuff:  Greinke has excellent command of 4 pitches:  FB, Slider, curveball and changeup.  He has adjusted to the inevitable erosion of his FB velocity by gradually reducing how often he throws it and by relying more on a terrific changeup.  The curveball and changeup are his two best pitches.

Intangibles:  Zack Greinke will be 36 yo in 2019 and 38 in the final year of his contract.  He has aged very gracefully and seems to be in good position to maintain productivity through the end of the contract through adjustment in his pitch repertoire.  He fits in well with the Giants tradition of taking advantage of their pitches hitting abilities.  He is a bit of an odd duck personality with an open interest in Sabermetrics and commentary on management issues like the draft.  On the other hand, there has never been any hint of not fitting into a clubhouse or causing dissension.

Cost:  See discussion above.

Conclusion:  If the Giants are serious about contending in 2019, they should probably at least kick the tires on Zack Greinke and see how much of his cost the D'Backs might be willing to keep or take back in a swap of bad contracts.

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