I am not going to try to make up specific scenarios here. That is just way to complex to try to work out in a post. The purpose of this exercise is to see what might be available on the market at a reasonable price in terms of prospects, that the Giants might be able to afford.
Kevin Kiermeier seems to be the subject of perennial trade speculation. He is the one contract the Rays are committed to which means he is probably a trade candidate but it's a small enough investment that the Rays probably feel like they don't have to trade him unless someone is willing to overpay.
The Phillies have signaled they are willing to consider wholesale changes to their roster and are making noises about going all out for Bryce Harper. That may leave OF's Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr on the block. Any of them have the potential to be a significant upgrade for the Giants but also come with significant bust potential.
In Milwaukee, Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana will be out of options this spring. The BrewCrew has a ton invested in the OF trio of Braun, Cain and Yelich, so Broxton and Santana may well be available for trade. They both have nice power/speed combinations but both strike out a ton.
The OF situation in Washington is crowded with or without Bryce Harper. Michael Taylor could well be on the block, especially if the National re-sign Harper. Taylor has shown flashes of speed and power and is a top notch defender in CF, but has never quite gained traction on his career and injuries have slowed him down.
Billy Hamilton is coming off a wretched season at the plate but still gives elite defense and baserunning which produced a +fWAR again in 2018.
Relations between Dexter Fowler and the Cardinals are so bad, they may well be willing to eat most of his contract to get another team to take him. He could be THE buy-low player of this offseason.
Other OF's who might be getting too expensive for their current teams but could be a bargain for the Giants include Corey Dickerson, David Peralta, Avisail Garcia and Kyle Schwarber.
The Padres probably want to unload Wil Myers contract and might be willing to pay part of it or else take back a bad contract to get it done.
The Rangers have no less than 5 LH hitting OF's and would probably be wiling to trade at least 1 out of Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Drew Robinson.
Do any of those names interest you? Can you think of others who might reasonably be available in the offseason?
The only 2 names you mentioned that I would have any interest in are Will Myers and Joey Gallo (Peralta would be nice but unrealistic). I dont want any of the phillies or brewers trash and the rest of the guys you mentioned arent good fits for what this team needs (Power bats or a true top of the lineup option). Whit Merrifield was mentioned last year as a trade candidate in KC and if that isnt the case anymore how about Adelberto Mondesi who is very similar to Merrifield in skill set. Both can shuffle from infield to outfield and both could be solid leadoff or #2 bats in the lineup.
ReplyDeleteSomething that rarely gets mentioned about the 3 world series championship teams is that they all had highly effective table setters in the top two spots in the lineup. Torres, Sanchez, Scutaro, Pagan, and Panik were all over the bases throughout the playoffs each year we won. You could make a strong argument that they all caught lightning in a bottle and none of those players are sustainable at the top but the premise remains true either way. A solid hitter like Whit at the top would fill that role nicely. Adelberto hasnt shown he is quite the hitter yet but his tools are very attractive with speed and good power.
This team has to address its lack of power at some point but there is actually an abundance of power in the majors now and it is easier to find than we think. Top of the lineup bats who get on base and can set the table are fewer and fewer now and the Giants had close to the worst 1-2 punch in the league last year.
I have no idea what it might take to get Merrifield but start with Heliot Ramos and go from there. Then they could take a look at several lesser free agents like Steve Pearce, Marwin Gonzalez, and Yasmani Grandal who would all be reasonably priced and could all help fill the power void in the lineup as well as play corner OF.
Merrifield is a player I'd LOVE to have, but if a new GM trades Ramos for him, that person might as well just keep their things in boxes. They won't be lasting long.
DeleteCove Chatter
Why would KC trade Merrifield unless it was distinctly to their advantage -- as in get someone who is better.
DeleteIf the prospect or prospects are better, why would the Giants do that?
What hole does Mondesi plug?
I really hope you are right but Ramos could be Gary Brown 2.0! Jorge Solar is another comp that looks like a superstar at one level but never quite develops in the majors. Whit Merrifield is a great hitter and is young enough to build around going forward. He has the hit tool and plus plus speed with good power that could develop into 25+ bombs a year as his speed diminishes in 3-4 years. He can play almost every position on the diamond with the exception of SS and C. Seems like a class act from afar albeit but he did have nothing but respecful words and was apologetic towards MadBum after he hit that screamer off his pinky. He also has a great baseball name so I think that covers everything!
DeleteMerrifield is 30 and had a very good 2018 with the help of a .352 BABIP: he is at a age when most players have hit their peak and where the Giants would be buying high. He had a good 2017 but an undistinguished record before that. He has never hit 20 HRs in the majors, so where Anon’s stab at 25+ comes from, I have no idea. Because of his age, the BABIP-boosted stats, and the brevity of his high-performance record (two years!) I fear that Anon’s ecstasy is expensive hype for a short-term boost.
DeleteIf the Giants don't fix the OF, they don't fix 2018 for 2019.
ReplyDeleteThat was also the mantra last year.
The difference for 2019 being the effort to get below the CBT threshold last year. Which, apparently, they did. Let's hope so.
For 2019 payroll, Longoria is up $1MM, Melancon is down $6MM, all the other big numbers are the same.
Not signing Bourjos, Blanco, Hernandez, & Tomlinson free $3MM and trading/releasing Dyson frees $4.42MM more.
Panik, Smith, & Holland (if signed) will cost more, Watson is up a half mill, maybe Strickland, too, if arbitrated.
The CBT threshold goes up $9MM in 2019.
All that, with Pence gone, they might have $30MM to spend and stay under CBT.
Would the Giants overspend, temporarily?
At $20MM there is an extra penalty applied to the 20% "tax" for going over $206MM.
Draft picks are not affected until overspending reaches $40MM.
What we don't know is how much of the $206MM the Giants will spend nor will they go $10-20MM over, so everything is a guess!
Samardzija and Melancon come off in 2021 ($34MM) so there will be some relief then, with Bumgarner providing some relief in 2020. That will help the payroll and maybe a rejuvenated Cueto will fill that Giant hole.
If GM, I would go after Pollock (age 31) and McCutchen (age 32) to team with Duggar in the OF with all the resources the Giants are willing to spend with the shortest contracts possible, but get them both.
I would not trade any prospect who is in DrB's top 20, unless I couldn't sign the 2 OFers I wanted, and then, it would be with great reluctance.
I do like Peralta.
I am going to presume that the Giants will not contend in 2019 to the degree that would pay them to keep Bumgarner and get nothing for him. Therefore they should trade him for a future-oriented deal, such as the one a blogger suggested for DrB’s Smackdown debate: to Atlanta for three top prospects with a 55 forecast (roughly equivalents to Bart and Ramos—and no one else among Giants prospects). Then: they should not look for immediate help among players over, say, 25 or 26. So, Joey Gallo OK or Adalberto Mondesi, but not Merrifield or Myers. For the near term, more probably, vets on affordable contracts with a 3-year max. I would like to see them go for depth rather than gamble on the health and general consistency of single high-impact, high-cost stars (Harper, Machado). And I would like to see them with dynastic winning as an imperative goal, rather than familial sentimentalizing about old favorites with animal nicknames, plump scrapbooks of past-triumph memorabilia, and record-setting rehabs.
ReplyDeleteBrewers are thin on starting pitching - maybe they are good trade partner.
DeleteNow you're talking: trade Bumgarner to Atlanta for top prospects but make them take his battery mate, too.
DeleteThe Giants (including this anon) will miss them both mightily and SF will suffer at the gate but it lights both end of the competitive candle: prospects plus significant payroll relief.
Could throw in another piece that Atlanta could use in the short run that the Giants won't need for the 2 years left of his control: Will Smith, and get another good prospect.
Braves need another starter? How 'bout Stratton, a local fellow from nearby Mississippi. He should be worth a prospect.
Any prospects left worth getting? Offer Strickland (Georgia boy), Dyson (Florida boy), and/or Watson (Texas) for prospects.
One stop shopping and Atlanta can knock off LA next time then win 2 consecutive World Series for the first time since 2000 when the Yankees repeated.
My concern with the Giants picking up a player like Taylor or Altherr is how is he different than Mac? It’s still a young player with talent and Boch will just go back to the vet at some point. They’ll end up with a Chase D’Arnaud type who makes the team out of spring training and “earns” a starting gig. Why would he hand a job to a player coming into the organization when he never hands one to a prospect coming up?
ReplyDeleteTaylor at least gives you plus D. I regard both him and Altherr as lottery tickets if the price is low. I wouldn't give up much for them but if the Phils and Nats want to give them away or include them as throw-ins in a bigger deal, I would be all for it. I like both players and think they have some breakout potential, but then I've thought that for 2-3 years now.
DeleteOne wonders if David Bell’s departure from his briefly held Giants FO job, to manage the Reds, makes the Giants’ top job more attractive. The incoming GM/CBO will be able to choose someone whom she trusts and who shares her agenda for the farm system and, I imagine, draft strategies. If the changeover involves not one person but three, a Chief of Baseball Operations, a GM, and a replacement for Bell, the new regime may be better able to avoid nostalgic or habitual continuity in the way the FO operates, and brainstorm more genuinely anew.
ReplyDeleteI would not be surprised if the open GM job played into David Bell's decision to explore the Manager market. He may have figured a new GM would want their own person in that position and got out while the gettin' was good.
DeleteThere is a verse in the Old Testament of the Bible about that: "....and there arose in Egypt a Pharaoh who knew not Joseph..."
Plus, this move will make David Bell a 3'rd generation Red. His dad, Buddy, still works in their front office.
DeleteOut on a limb here, but I'd at least kick the tires on Odubel Herrera. Depending on how the market goes, he could end up being a bargain. Yeah, it's a gamble, but I'd do a small wager. (If the price is up, forget it.)
ReplyDeleteI agree.
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