OF clearly has to be the Giants top priority this offseason, but SP is a not so distant second. As you saw from the SP Depth Chart, while it's not desperation time, there is a pretty big drop-off in reliability after Madison Bumgarner at #1. If the Giants want to compete in 2019, they need to bolster the pitching staff with more than just re-signing Derek Holland.
While Patrick Corbin has the most buzz of all the FA pitchers, there are quite a few others who may well turn out to be better options. In my mind, Dallas Keuchel should be getting close to the same attention as Corbin, yet you hear very little about him on sites like MLBTR. Let's break down Keuchel as a Free Agent:
Performance: Keuchel has been a mainstay in the Astros rotation for the past several years. While 2018 is probably perceived by many as a down year, it was still pretty darn good was he ran up an fWAR of 3.6 tied for second best of his career and also tied for 19'th best in MLB for qualified SP's. There does not seem to be anything fluky about his 3.74 ERA as his FIP and xFIP are very close. His K rate was down a tick at 6.73 but his walk rate was also down at 2.55. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with a GB/FB of 2.20 which was actually his lowest rate since his rookie season.
Stuff: Keuchel has alway been a classic soft tossing lefty with excellent command of a multi-pitch mix. His average FB velocity of 89.3 was actually a tick up from his prior 2 seasons. He mixes in a slider, cutter and changeup. Per Fangraphs, he has not thrown a curveball since 2013. Even with his great command, he is probably living on the edge of effectiveness with that FB velocity and any significant dip would jeopardize the effectiveness of his other pitches.
Intangibles: Keuchel is from Tulsa Oklahoma and pitched college ball for Arkansas. He's spent his career so far in Houston. I'm sure he's a great guy but he just strikes me as likely to be more comfortable in Texas than Northern California. I can also do without seeing the hipster beard every 5'th game. He missed some time with a pinched nerve in his neck in 2017 but has otherwise been durable. On the other hand, the Giants have successfully assimilated other players from the southeastern US so he might fit in just fine.
Price: MLBTR does not have their contract projections for this year's FA class up yet. I projected Corbin to get 5 yrs/$75 M which could be selling him short, but Keuchel figures to get less. We'll say 4 yrs/$60 M which might be a excellent value.
Summary: The Giants should let some other team overpay for Patrick Corbin and kick the tires on Dallas Keuchel. If his price is significantly less than Corbin's, it's a good deal.
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I'm trying to remember San Francisco's last significant FA signing who could be regarded as a "good ole boy" Southerner, born and bred, and I'm at a loss.
ReplyDeleteNot including resigns, extensions, or minor leaguers, who came here, especially since SF has gone so, well, so San Francisco?
The significant tax disadvantages of domiciling in California is foremost in every pitch from Florida and Texas, and states who aren't as burdened as high incomes are here.
SF is a great place to visit, one can do that playing anywhere, but the culture shock is significant, and, if you have kids, our education is not the "best" as it was in more golden years.
I'm a southern transplant, it was strange enough coming here @ 27 yo more than 50 years ago, but it was so different then, and I never intended to stay.
I fear the Giants would have to significantly overpay to get a Keuchel. Or maybe anyone!
Tim Hudson
DeleteTim Hudson spent most of his career in Oakland. I was actually thinking of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Belt and Matt Cain.
DeleteEach person is different. Cain fell in love with a SF girl who won him over to the city. Buster Posey was just the ultimate professional who was willing to adapt wherever his career took him. Belt seems laid back and jovial.....maybe a bit too laid back? Bumgarner is a good old boy at heart and seems to see his baseball career, at least from a financial standpoint as a way of funding livestock purchases for his farm.
Wasn't Jeff Kent from Texas and never quite got the Texas out of him?
Will Clark from Louisanna
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
Keuchel would give the Giants 4 lefties in the rotation with Rodriguez as the only righty (that is assuming they resign Holland and Suarez gets the nod over Stratton), not sure they would do that...
ReplyDeleteI believe Kent was born and raised in Bell or Bellflower, CA, son of a police officer. Then went to college at Cal. After he signed with the Astros he somehow acquired a Texas drawl which drew the ridicule of McCovey Chronicle followers who were not necessarily fond of Kent.
ReplyDeleteWell, the OC isn't too far away from Texas. Kent bought a ranch is Texas in 2008. I guess that's what I was thinking off. He also owns a motorcycle and ATV business so it all fits. On the other hand, he established a scholarship for women athletes at Cal so we'll give him a plus for that.
DeleteJeff Kent. Wow! What a hitter! Can we please get another 2B like him? Hitters won't come to AT&T Park, yet when it first opened Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent had no trouble putting up league leading power numbers year after year.
It's not the "park", it's the quality of the hitters. If you keeping talking about the difficulties in hitting home runs at AT&T because of the dimensions of the park and the wind, you set up an excuse ( at least for management) as to why top quality offensive free agents won't sign with the Giants. Good hitters on visiting teams don't seem to have any trouble hitting home runs at AT&T.
DeleteI still remember the three home runs hit by Kevin Elster on the Opening Day of the Park in 2000. On that day everyone thought that the park was going to be a band-box for hitters.
It's not quite that simple, Pete. Park Factors are calculated to account for the quality of the hitters. AT&T Park's factor for HR's is approximately 0.700 and Yankee Stadium's is approximately 1.3 which means the same player, on average, is going to hit twice as many HR's/Game in Yankee Stadium as AT&T Park. If you are a hitter and could choose either park to play in, which would you choose, especially if you think there is another contract in your future?
DeleteI think it says more about how great Bonds and Kent were.
I'm certainly not an "expert" in "Park Factors", but I believe it might have something to do with the number of home runs hit in each park. If that is the case, then the type of hitters playing in each park impacts the "park factor". Since over the last 10 years, the Giants have not had a team built around home runs ( they account for roughly half of the total at bats in the park), one can assume that their lack of quality hitters has driven the "park factor" number down significantly.
DeleteWhile overall HR's by the home team might contribute a small bias to Park Factors, the calculations are designed to account for that.
DeleteThe numbers I quoted above were ESPN's for 2018. Looking up historic Park Factors in Fangraphs, AT&T Park was still the hardest park for HR's in 2000 when Bonds and Kent were near the peak of their remarkable run.
Yes, Jeff Kent is a borderline HOF 2B, but his relatively short peak and A-hole personality might work against him. It might be a long long time before the Giants find another 2B like him, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteis he clean? he played when the league was dirty with Roids - if he played cleanly he should get in ...
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