Friday, October 26, 2018

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Yusei Kikuchi

Lefties here, lefties there, lefties everywhere!  If Derek Holland, Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel aren't enough choices for you, there is a Japanese lefty, Yusei Kikuchi, hitting the market this winter who has caught some buzz.  Kikuchi is a relatively rare hard throwing lefty who is rumored to have hit 98 MPH with his FB, but usually sits more in the 92-94 MPH range.  He is currently 27 yo with a June 17 birthdate.  He has pitched 7 seasons in the JPPL.  He is 6'0", 195 lbs.

Performance:  Kikuchi had the equivalent of a Cy Young season in 2017 posting a 16-6 W-L record with a 1.92 ERA with a 10.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 187.2 IP.  His numbers slipped in 2018 with an ERA of 3.08 and a lower K/9 of 8.4.  His BB/9 remained steady at 2.5.

Stuff:  Kikuchi has a standard FB, Slider, Changeup 3 pitch mix.  From videos, all 3 offerings appear to be above average with excellent command.  His delivery is high 3/4.  His FB velocity is what sets him apart from other Japanese LHP's.

Intangibles:  Kikuchi is reportedly a competitor with excellent concentration at all times.  His 2018 was marred by 2 bouts of shoulder soreness which might give some MLB teams pause.  He reportedly did appear to be healthy in his final start of the season. As with most Japanese pitchers at his age, he already has a ton of mileage on the arm.

Price:  I've given up trying to figure out pricing on Japanese free agents.  I doubt we see the signing circus we got with Shohei Ohtani.  Kikuchi's expected contract would be more along the lines of Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers.

Summary:  The Giants reportedly had scouts at his last game along with several other MLB organizations.  Yusei Kikuchi is definitely a get if he is fully healthy, but personally, pitcher's with shoulder issues scare me.

16 comments:

  1. Sigh ... Two Vandy pitchers ,,, Dodgers get Walker Buehler and Giants get Tyler Beede ,,, Giants get Christian Arroyo and Dodgers get Bellinger ... there is a reason why one team has won the Division what six years in a row and one team has a $200M payroll and can't even play .500 ball

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    1. Giants need to draft better and a review of John Barr's scouting and drafting philosophy is in order, but the draft is enough of a crapshoot that you can't jus point to 4 random picks and say that's the problem.

      These things ten to go in cycles. Dodgers had some great drafts in the early 2000's. Then the Giants had a run of Timmy, Bummy and Buster with Joe Panik coming in 2011. The Giants then had a string of busts. So far, the last 2 drafts are looking better but we'll see.

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  2. I don’t root for the dodgers often but I have to admit I was rooting for them last night. The last time was last year against the Cubs in the NLCS and the time before that was in 88 when i had $20 against the A’s in the WS (I made the bet before the all-star break).

    As a die hard Giants fan I still want Boston to win the series this year but as a baseball fan I wanted the dodgers as NL West representatives to make this a good series. I also cant help but root for certain players on the dodgers as individuals. Must be from playing too much fantasy baseball..... am I a bad person because I dont hate the dodgers?

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    1. Am I a bad person because I don't hate the Dodgers? Probably not, but you also probably were not a Giants fan in the 1960's and through the Lasorda years.

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    2. Cey, Russell, Lopes, Garvey - longest tenured infield. One of them said, and the words rings in my ears 40 years later - "You guys (Giants) will never finish ahead of us." And as long as that INF was together it was true.

      I was there to see the Dodgers swagger into Candlestick. I was there for the Ivie PH GS and one Friday night when Herndon and the RF collided in the OF in the 9th inning to allow the Dodgers to tie it up, 1-1 or 2-2 only to have the G's win in the bottom of the 9th.

      I do not hate the Dodgers - I fear them and respect them. I hope the Sox win but it will not be the end of my world if the Dodgers win.

      Dodgers are good and lucky. Did they not claim Turner, Muncey, and Chris Taylor? Three players claimed off the scrap heap turn into productive starters? Is that right? Who else has done that? Good scouting plus a fair amount of luck.

      Then again Turner is in his mid 30's and goes from marginal player to superstar at about age 30? How often does this happen?
      Meanwhile look at all the (unnamed) Giants players who broke down in late 20's or early 30's.

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    3. am I a bad person because I dont hate the dodgers?

      Sort of like a resume:
      You wouldn't lead that on a Giants site like you wouldn't mention you're not good at decisions when looking for a job...

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    4. Speaking only for myself, I give the Dodgers credit when it's due, but I never, ever root for them to win....against anybody!

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    5. J asks a good question: who besides LAD has taken players from the scrap heap and made effective starters of them? Well, no one I can think of since the Dead Ball Era, when some one or other did that with whom? Andrew Torres, Grigori Blanco, and Raoul Vogelsong, or someone like that . . . But whose memories stretch that far back?

      As for someone who asks if it makes him or her a bad person to root for LAD, the answer is YES, YES IT DOES. A “good series” is one in which LAD is satisfyingly crushed, humiliated, and given a steaming tar rinse with a feather après-douche. This has been so since I first became a Giants fan when these Bums’ forebears were in Ebbets Field just after World War II, and I believe will long survive me.

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  3. If there is a shoulder injury discount, I'm all for the Giants going for Kikuchi. I don't need him to be prime Bumgarner or Kershaw, but a nice 160-180 innings middle rotation starter would fit well on the team. The Giants need one more and I think those other lefties you listed aren't going to be worth the price unless the Giants can swoop in cheap or in Spring Training.

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  4. Hey J,
    I was at that game where the OF's collided too! It was one of my first Giants-Dodger games and I have to say that nearly every Giants-Dodger game I've attended has been memorable in some way, especially the Brian Johnson HR game, Benito Santiago's game winning hit vs the untouchable Gagne, first game at AT&T, and of course the Bonds HR to break the HR record.
    And yes, I, like many Giants fans, abhor the Dodgers. But I also love baseball. So a part of me has to admit I begrudgingly respect what the Hated Ones have done over the years... they have positively impacted the game in many ways in acquiring talent- Jackie Robinson, Hideo Nomo, Fernando, Puig, and others, and now in their scrap heap reclamation projects, drafting injured pitchers, and seemingly crazy trades that work out.
    Indeed, if they were perennial losers and an inept organization, Giants fans would probably hate them a lot less.

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    1. that collision game is the most memorable game ever - i was living in san carlos, a high school junior (Bellarmine) ,,,and went with two guys, one of whom just moved to SC from LA --- we were in a little sports car and before the trip he placed two Dodger caps in the crease where the little trunk closes.. traffic to get to the Stick was jammed so we two Giant fans hopped out with half a mile from the park.My friend pulled one of the caps out as we exited the car and he desecrated the cap in the stadium. Anyway when the collided everyone was on their feet ,,, place going nuts ... the hitter got an inside the park HR ,,, and somehow the G's came back for a walk off win ...that year (1978) was the first year since 1972 Giants had a winning record...so morale was high ,,, that may have been the Vida Blue joined the team and there was a buzz at the park

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    2. Doc - if you have a slow news day would be fun to see a thread on "best Giants game you ever saw" - to feel the nostalgia ...

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    3. I was also there for the Ivie Grand Slam in 1978. I can give you the date without looking it up: May 28th. It was my 12th Birthday and I was in the upper deck, reserve, Section 11. The stick absolutely went ballistic. One of the best days of my life.

      I'm almost sure Ivie gave away a Chevrolet too, as it was the giveaway inning. (Giants hit a HR in the giveaway inning, a winner got cash. A Grand Slam and the winner got a Chevy.)

      And yep, 1978 was the Vida year. And Vida had "Vida" on the back of his uniform, which is about the coolest thing I'd ever seen.

      1978 was a magical year for me because there was a buzz. The Giants had been bad for as long as I'd been a fan (since 1974).

      Also remember my first game at the Stick, August 1975, against the Expos. Couple of thousand people in the park. That garish blue-green carpet shinning in the sun. But, like Billy Crystal points out in "City Slickers," you never, ever forget when you walk into an MLB stadium for the first time, as the field comes into view...

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  5. I have too have begrudging and total respect for the Dodgers. (Once they got away from the Colletti days of luring ex-Giants to LA, they started to do things correctly.)

    And look at them. Won the division 6 years in row. And with the core of that team (Kershaw, Hill, Jansen, Turner, Puig and the young up-and-coming talent, Urias, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler) They are going to continue to win the division for the foreseeable future.

    It's also hard to believe they have three reclamation projects (Turner, Muncy, Taylor) performing as stars or regulars. Name another team that has been able to accomplish mid-career turnarounds like the Dodgers have with these guys.

    Giants need to figure some things out. Dodgers have made that clear.

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    1. Turner/Taylor/Muncy is impressive, but the Giants have a long string of dumpster dive success stories: Torres, Vogey, Blanco, Strickland, Dereck Rodriguez, Derek Holland.

      I'm also pretty sure most of the Dodgers core players you mention were acquired before they "started doing things correctly."

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    2. dodgers win 6 divisions in a row and they're half way to being the Buffalo Bills of Major League Baseball.

      Anyone think 6 divisions in the decade is better than 3 championships?

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