The 2011 draft did not quite have the spectacular successes that 2010 had with Harper, Machado and Chris Sale, but it was much deeper with the majority of first round picks enjoying significant MLB careers. The Giants were drafting way down at #29 after winning the 2010 World Series. Gerrit Cole was the #1 overall pick by the Pirates. Danny Hultzen(#2) was a bust. Other "successful" picks included Trevor Bauer(3), Dylan Bundy(4), Anthony Rendon(6), Archie Bradley(7), Francisco Lindor(8), Javier Baez(9), George Springer(11), Jose Fernandez(14) and Sonny Gray(18). It was a bit of a mixed bag after Gray went to the A's at #18:
19. Matt Barnes(Red Sox).
20. Tyler Anderson(Rockies)
21. Tyler Beede(Blue Jays)- did not sign.
22. Kolten Wong(Cardinals)
23. Alex Meyer(Nationsals)
24. Taylor Guerrieri(Rays).
25. Joe Ross(Padres).
26. Blake Swihart(Red Sox).
27. Robert Stephenson(Reds).
28. Sean Gilmartin(Braves).
Nobody anticipated the Giants pick at #29, Joe Panik, a SS from St John's, who was not expected to stick a the position. The pick left the TV commentators practically speechless. John Barr or Brian Sabean or someone came out and said they took him for his bat but thought he could stay at SS. Panik quickly moved to 2B and rose quickly through the Giants system but not without some criticism, especially of his performance in AA. He was a big part of the Giants 2014 Championship run, especially on defense. He was an All-Star in 2015 and won a Gold Glove in 2016. His 2017 season was pretty good but 2018 was marred by injury and poor performance. Still, looking at the lists above, he was probably the best player drafted after Sonny Gray at #18.
John Barr and the Giants had no control over who got picked ahead of Joe Panik. As with 2010, I want to look at who was drafted later to see if they missed a better choice. Here's the list:
30. Levi Michael, Twins- Bust.
31. Mikie Mahtook, Rays- Bust.
32. Jake Hager, Rays- Bust.
33. Kevin Matthews, Twins- Bust.
34. Brian Goodwin, Nationals- Limited success.
35. Jacob Anderson, Blue Jays- Bust.
36. Henry Owens, Red Sox- Bust.
37. Zach Cone, Twins- Bust.
38. Brandon Martin, Rays- Bust.
39. Larry Greene, Phillies- Bust.
40. Jackie Bradley Jr, Red Sox- Very good player.
So, much like in 2010, you have to go 10 more picks before you get to a player who might have been a better pick than Joe Panik, and that is probably debatable. There were some nice picks later on like Michael Fulmer(44), Trevor Story(45) and Blake Snell(52).
Other Giants draft picks of note from 2011 include Kyle Crick(49), Andrew Susac(86), Josh Osich(207), Ray Black(237), Derek Law(297), Kelby Tomlinson(387) and Joe Biagini(807).
Conclusion: Short of knowing the future, the Giants took the Best Player Available with Joe Panik. In fact, you could make a strong case that Panik should have gone as high as to the BoSox at #19. While you could argue they might be better off today with Bradley, Fulmer, Story or Snell, it is highly unlikely that a different scouting and management team would have done better in this draft.
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I still love Panik and think his best Giants seasons are still ahead of him. Crick got us Cutch, who got us the guy from the Yankees whose name I've forgotten. Susac got us Will Smith. Osich has been a bit of a bust. I think that Law and Black could be important pieces in the bullpen for years to come. Though the leash on Law is short. Tomlinson has had his shot and it's time to move on. Biagini? Never caught on here and is now in Toronto.
ReplyDeleteJust my thoughts.
I am with you on Panik
DeleteI expect if healthy a big bounce back.
This maybe more of me wishin and hopin!!
Richard in Winnipeg
P.s. Steve Pearce hurt the Bums real bad.Nice!!
I am a believer in Panik - plus he has a professional demeanor in clubhouse. BoSox have issues at 2B as well as Catcher and 1B in my opinion. If Giants decide to tear down the team I think Bosox would be interested in Panik, Posey, and Belt.
DeletePanik arguably represents the Giants' only major draft success of this entire decade. And now yet another generation of Giants fans has taken over the wait for the mythical Giants OF Draft Product. Meanwhile the Dodgers can field an entire OF with draft products in Pedersen, Bellinger and Kemp. None of them were high draft picks but their scouts saw something in them and their player development system nurtured them into quality major leaguers. Lately the Giants haven't even been successful drafting pitching, which was once their strong suit. Sure the draft can be a crap-shoot in some ways but when the outcome of year after year of the draft is more crap than straight shooting in certain player archetypes it is imperative that the incoming GM needs to scrutinize the entire process..
ReplyDeleteAgreed that Giants scouting and draft strategy needs to be near the top of the list for the new GM to evaluate.
DeleteOn the other hand, As long as the Giants draft and develop infielders, catchers and pitchers, they should be able to fill in the OF with FA's and trades, which they have largely failed to do.
...and we'll get into later drafts that are more problematic for Barr and the Giants as we move along on future posts.
DeleteKemp's draft is a long time ago and his road back to the OF in LA has been pretty long. But you could add in Puig to that OF and it's 4 deep in Dodger prospects turned into major contributors.
DeleteThe Giants still have Posey, Belt, Panik, and Crawford with BackupPanda or Jones at 3b, with utility Tomlinson around the infield, and until they sign/trade for OF's the OF is also homegrown with Slater, Duggar and Williamson. The team could be fielding an entirely homegrown lineup on days Longoria rests next year. The difference is: will they produce? Will we get a 20 HR or 20 SB or .800+OBP out of that bunch of OFers or aging IFers?
I'm also willing to give Duggar, Williamson, Slater, and Shaw their due shots.
ReplyDeleteThe jury is out on picks after Panik, but many are still in play (somewhere) or were traded for some ML talent:
ReplyDeleteCrick, Susac, Osich, Black, Tomlinson, Stratton, Williamson, Blach, Duffy, Arroyo, Jones, C Johnson, Slater, Garcia, Webb, Shaw, Suarez, Duggar, Miller, Quinn, Howard, Ruotolo, Reynolds, Ramos, Gonzales, Corry, Cave, Barr, Bart,