I have been openly intrigued by the idea of trading Madison Bumgarner since last offseason when I first proposed the idea. I don't know if I was the first blogger to propose it, but I think I was at least riding shotgun on that bandwagon. Since then, I have spent way too much of my time thinking about it from every angle. I've put together numerous hypothetical trades(BTW, it's way hard to make those realistic. You almost always end up either undervaluing your guy to get the other team to agree or you end up overvaluing to the point where the other team would hang up). I've scripted the outcome if the Giants don't trade him. Out of all that, I just know one thing for sure: The Giants should not, SHOULD NOT, give Madison Bumgarner the kind of large, longterm extension it will take to keep him in a Giants uniform for his career! So before we get to the smackdown, we'll stipulate that there is no 9 figure contract with the Giants in Bummy's future.
Resolved: The Giants should trade Madison Bumgarner this offseason.
This side of the argument rests on two pillars: 1. The Giants will not be competitive for postseason baseball in 2019. 2. The Giants will lose Madison Bumgarner after the 2019 season for close to nothing in return. If you believe in both of those two pillars, the decision is easy. Bummy gets traded. There are enough teams out there who are likely to think they are 1 ace pitcher away from a ring to start a bidding war and bring back MLB ready prospects who will not only jumpstart the rebuild, but might be enough of an immediate talent upgrade to make them competitive in 2019! Here are just 2 possible trade scenarios I have thought of. They aren't perfect, so don't start throwing the rotten tomatoes, but I think they are close enough to realistic to give us an idea of what is possible:
Trade #1: Madison Bumgarner to the Brewers for 2B Keston Hiura, OF Domingo Santana, RHP Aaron Brooks and C Jacob Nottingham. Brewers window of contention is obviously now. They desperately need an ace pitcher but don't want to pay a lot. Giants immediately upgrade the bat at 2B(though probably not the glove), a starting OF with power and speed an MLB ready SP and depth at C.
Trade #2: Madison Bumgarner to the Phillies for OF Odubel Herrera, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson. Phillies think their time is now and are making noise about signing Bryce Harper. Rotation was a weak spot after Aaron Nola and Bumgarner would make a nice LHP bookend the top of their rotation. Herrera's production has slipped but is on a very team-friendly contract through 2021 with 2 option years. The Giants also get a big upgrade on a nearly barren pitching side of their bullpen. De Los Santos could step into the rotation immediately or be a nice multi-inning reliever.
Other teams who might be in the market for a cheap ace pitcher for 1 year and have multiple good prospects to trade are the Yankees, Braves and Oakland A's.
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Resolved: The Giants should not trade Madison Bumgarner this offseason:
This side of the argument also rests on 2 pillars: 1. The Giants can put together a contending team for 2019. 2. An Ace pitcher on a cheap 1 year contract is not a bad thing.
Look, there is a reason why Madison Bumgarner has serious trade value. Think about it this way: Would you rather have an ace pitcher on a 6 year/$150 M contract or a 1 year $12 M contract? I think about 30/30 GM's would pick door #2 there. Besides, there is no guarantee that any of the your players you might get in return in a trade will pan out. If the Giants think they can contend in 2019, you are not going to find a better SP on a more favorable contract than Madison Bumgarner. You upgrade the OF and rest of the rotation through FA and/or trades, hope for good health from a few players and Voila! You're a contender! At the end of the season, you make a QO. If Bummy accepts, you have him for another year without a longterm commitment. If not, you re-allocate the money and are a year closer to being out from under CBT hell. Plus, you have Johnny Cueto back from TJ surgery(more on that in future posts).
Conclusion: If the Giants are serious about building a contending team in 2019, they should keep Madison Bumgarner. If they don't think they can contend in 2019, they should trade him. That's a big decision!
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another scenario that doesn't bring immediate help, but in the long term might be a very good trade would be to the Atlanta Braves for Ian Anderson (RHP), Austin Riley (3B) and Christian Pache (OF)/Drew Waters (OF).
ReplyDeleteDoc, if the 'can we contend question?' were answered based solely on baseball considerations, I think we all know what the preponderance of the evidence suggests. The answer to the question has bigger implications, as we all know. If the question is answered in the affirmative, the Giants will go into the free agent market and invest, and the investment will likely result in a contract of duration that exceeds the on field of the player. Such a move would make it even more difficult to field a competitive team in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
ReplyDeleteI like the trade anonymous suggests. On your trade #2, I would leave Herrera out and replace him with two or three lottery ticket players from the lower minors.
Only time will tell what the wisest course is. I openly admit I don't see a path to realistic contention for the Giants in 2019 or 2020. My belief is that it is time to bite the bullet and take one step back in 2019 to put the organization on the right path going forward, and that means trading Bumgarner is a step that must be taken.
What about Adam Haseley instead of Herrera from the Phillies? Would Philly include him in a trade?
DeleteAgree with Scott that the Giants should take a step back in 2019 and attempt to reload by moving Bumgarner. I also prefer the trade with Atlanta.
ReplyDeleteI would go even a step further and attempt to get Buster Posey to agree with a trade to Atlanta for two of their top minor league pitchers and another outfielder.
Trading Bumgarner and Posey to Atlanta makes this instantly competitive for the National League title and allows the Giants to add 5 or 6 quality prospects (Top 100) prospects, looking toward the 2020or 2021 season.
Nobody is going to trade for Buster Posey until he proves he's healthy.
DeleteI agree 100% with Scott Thompson. If we could get a v good deal from Milwaukee or Philly, who have parks where B’s bat would play well, we could even make him happy, at the cost of having to face him a couple of times per season. And if we can set up a small bidding war between Milw. and St L or Chicago, each team eager to get B and to keep him from the divisional competition, we might have extra leverage so as to overcome some doubts about B’s decline from his peak. Ditto a bidding war between Phil. and Atl.
ReplyDeleteA further advantage from trading B would be some replenishment of our inventory of prospects, to increase our depth with an eye to greater flexibility to make future trades.
Another possible reason to trade Madbum, especially if you don't think we can compete in 2019, is that you can get some value for him and then resign him when he becomes a free agent in a year. By then, we will have a better understanding of what our future looks like (how does Cueto and Shark look, the prospects from any deal,etc) and how he might fit into it. We will be better informed to make the commitment it is going to take to sign him when he dos become a FA
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
I guess I am not quite as pessimistic as most commenters here about 2019. It would take some very savvy offseason moves and a lot of things to go right, but we've all seen seasons where everything went right and others where everything went wrong.
ReplyDeleteI am OK with either trading Bummy or not keeping him for 2019. I just feel strongly it would be a huge mistake for the Giants to sign him the kind of contract it will take to keep him longterm.
It seemed like everything went wrong last year, yet they hung around 500 till Sept. Injuries are part of the game, but this team had more then their share of devastating injuries for some reason. For me this team has been too successful this decade not to be a little optimistic for 2019. I'm in a wait and see mode till they hire the new GM. If they hire the right person, that alone could bring new optimism to the franchise. I remember feeling awful about the team after they lost 100 games in 1985. Then owner Bob Lurie made the right move hiring Al Rosen as GM and Roger Craig as manager and they brought new hope to the team instantly. They won the division 2 years later.
DeleteAgree with your take on Madbum, They'll hang to him if they chose to compete in 2019. If not how about this proposed trade with the Yankees: Madbum for pitchers Domingo German, Justis Sheffield, and another Single A pitcher in their top 20.
LG
Doc, only time will tell who has this one right. In the meantime, thanks for providing a forum for us to show off our GM chops. LOL. What ever way you slice it, the next six months will go a long way to determining the course of the franchise for the foreseeable future. There is nothing wrong with a little optimism.
ReplyDeleteWhether the FO thinks the Giants can or cannot put up a contender, or the fans think the Giants can or cannot put up a contender, smart money will say the Giants will NOT admit they are NOT a contender in 2019 before August 31, 2019.
ReplyDeleteIf you accept this dictum, all but prescribed by Larry Baer himself, the Giants will hang unto Bumgarner until August. If he does well and the Giants are then "out of it" convincingly, he could be traded for at least half his value in the off-season (and maybe more depending on who is desperate, how desperate, and how loaded).
Doc has made an argument that Bumgarner could be traded and the Giants still be better in 2019, and a lot of us agree that "could" be true, but that ain't gonna help off-season ticket sales or bought into by the FO.
I don't think the Giants will try that.
BTW, aren't the Giants out of CBT hell if they "reset" this year? What is the cost of overspending next year?
With Pence coming off, a trade of one of their BIG salary guys (most likely Belt at $17MM), and jettisoning maybe Dyson and Panik for another $9-10MM off, voila, they have $45MM to spend!
The Giants have Mac @ 27 yo plus 7 players 25 and under knocking on the door for a very few open positions assuming they FA sign/trade for an OFer and and IFer (the 7: Hanson, Duggar, Slater, Jones, Shaw, Avelino, and Gomez).
Personally, I don't believe the Giants will contend in 2019 without a "BOLD" move or 2, but I even more believe the Giants won't throw in the towel this winter.