Just when you were starting to think DrB is a hopeless curmudgeon who hates all free agents and doesn't think the Giants should sign anyone, here comes my White Whale for this offseason. Garrett Richards! After years of nursing along a torn UCL with rehab and plasma-rich platelet(or is it the other way around?) injections he finally gave in to Tommy John surgery late in the season. That means he is probably not going to pitch at all in 2019, or if he does, in September at the earliest. That's a bummer for him because this development just happened to come along in his walk year and now he's a free agent who is not going to play in the season following his free agency.
OK, remember I promised more on Johhny Cueto and HIS Tommy John surgery? Well, it turns out he has 3 things in common with Garrett Richards that should interest the Giants a lot: 1. They are both ace pitchers when they are healthy. 2. They are both going to miss all, or at least most, of the 2019 season. 3. They should both be healthy again in 2020! Now, I'm not necessarily ready to give up on the 2019 season just yet, but I also am looking ahead to to 2020, 2021 and beyond. What if, for a modest additional investment, both Johnny Cueto and Garrett Richards were both healthy for 2020.....in Giants uniforms! Here's the breakdown on Richards:
Performance: Richards has performed like an ace when he's been healthy which has not been often over the past 3 seasons. He seemed to be finally healthy to start 2018 and went 5-4 with a 3.66 ERA in 16 Starts with a 10.26 K/9 and a GB/FB of 1.57. His walk rate was up, but that may have been due to the loose UCL that finally snapped.
Stuff: Richards has always had premium velocity. His FB averaged 96 MPH in 2018 and he threw it about 50% of the time. He also mixed in a slider(39%) and a curveball(11%).
Intangibles: Full recovery from Tommy John surgery is not a given, but the odds are good enough that if you have a chance to stash an ace like Garrett Richards for a season on thee chance he will be healthy the next, you have to go for it if the price is right. Which brings us to.....
Price: The only precedent for this I can think of is last year when Michael Pineda signed with the Twins for 2 years/$10M. Hey! It only counts for $5 M against the CBT threshold! Pineda gets a nice paycheck for the year he is on the DL and the Twins have a pretty good shot at an ace pitcher for 2019. In a recent MLBTR Chat, the host opined that Richards would probably sign with some team for the same deal Pineda got. I'm not so sure he won't get a bit more, but even if the Giants had to go 2/$15 with an option/buyout for 2021, man, that's a gamble I'm taking in a heartbeat!
Summary: The Giants probably should not try to win a bidding war for Garrett Richards, but if the rest of the league is sleeping on him, they need to grab him! Selling Point: AT&T Park is a great place for pitchers to rebuild their value.
Come on, Kim! Get it done!
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Ah, so you think Kim Ng will get the job.
ReplyDeleteI'm rooting for her. I really don't know who the best person for the job is. I thought Bobby Evans' processes were fine, so what do I know? On paper, she has the qualifications and I think she would bring a unique perspective.
DeleteI am totally on board with Kim Ng. Given how male dominated the sport is, to do as well as she has, she must be very good. Hey, it worked with Renel.
ReplyDeleteRenel is fine, but who goes to AT&T to hear Renel (who wouldn't go otherwise)?
DeleteNobody goes to the ballpark to see the GM either. Before the Giants hired Renel and her predecessor(can't remember her name) no team had ever hired a woman to be a PA announcer. People just could not imagine hearing a woman's voice over the PA system. Now, while I agree nobody comes to the ballpark to hear Renel, I think she is one of the best in the business and is definitely part of the Giants Ballpark Experience.
DeleteAnyway, maybe I will write a post about why I think the Giants should hire Kim Ng as GM, hopefully before they actually hire someone!
Previous ballpark announcer: Sherry Davis.
DeleteShe was not a professional announcer, and she was not good. She mispronounced player names at an alarming rate.There is a reason why she was quietly let go when the Giants got to AT&T.
It was the novelty that was embraced with Davis.
That said, Ng is a professional who appears to have credentials. If she has the fire of someone something to prove, I’m all for her.
I don't really remember Sherry Davis but IMO Renel is the best and enhances the overall Giants experience in her role.
DeleteThat could be a key to 2020 if there is no 2019 rebound. ;<)
ReplyDeleteWant a positive review of 2018?
Here goes:
At the end of day July 1st, the Giants were 45-40, coming off their best month of the year, and, they were 20-10 for their last 30 games.
The IF was the All Star guys plus Sandoval filling in most of the month for ailing Longoria, OF of McCutchen, Hernandez and a rotation in left, pitching was good with Bumgarner coming back, Cueto and Shark gone, Rodriguez beginning to shine.
The point is, sans McCutchen, this is 2019 plus a full year of Bumgarner, Rodriguez, maybe Holland, the whole 'pen, potentially a revitalized Longo, and Mac and the kiddie-corp with some experience. And Shark?
Getting a couple bats for the outfield, a semblance of stability and Belt and Buster could make a contending team.
Too much to ask for? There is a fair amount of money coming free, and hope for some rebounds and some good luck.
In other words - if the FO is willing to spend $200M !!!! and a few regulars such as Buster rebound hey can be a .500 + team.
DeleteMy take: every playoff team has young guns that form a "Core" (love that term, thanks Larry Baer).
Acuna for Atlanta is an example. Other playoff team have bona fide MVP players in lineup - Yelllich for MIL and JDM for RedSox.
Who do the Giants have???
nobody - no Studs...
I say do not bother trying to contend next year. Shoot for 2020/2021 when Bart and others should be putting up VG numbers.
Isn't the FO is willing to spend $200MM if it will sell tickets?
DeleteWon't playing on the high side of .500 keep the Giants "in contention" or near?
Isn't the FO goal maintaining at least strong 30K crowds?
Can't they do at least that as long as they're in contention?
IMO, the Giants will NOT throw in the towel before they have to and to keep people coming in the Giants have only to have promise.
They have a ton of money to spend without getting back into CBT with only 8 players ($127MM) with guaranteed contracts without options.
If they don't make a splash with free agency, they can invite an army of hopeful veterans to camp to supplement the kids, but they can't go with what they got and be competitive -- they might not even stay ahead of San Diego.
I'm not sure why so many people seem so convince that if the Giants would just tank it for the next 2-3 years, they will almost surely win 3 more championships in the 2020's. I really like Joey Bart as a prospect, but Joey Bart is no slam dunk to be the kind of cornerstone that Buster Posey has been. And who are the "others" we're talking about?
DeleteI just don't see the Giants being in great position for a tear-down/rebuild. They just don't have that many elite prospects and they don't have enough tradable assets. A teardown will require either eating a ton of money or getting nothing in return. You end up with 2-3 last place years followed by another 2-3 year rebuild with no guarantee of success.
OF Free Agency: Pollack v McCutchen
ReplyDeletePollack is younger (1 year), has more power, is a lot better fielder, and probably faster.
McCutchen is more durable, gets on base more, and reportedly is a good club house presence.
Pollack will cost a lot more but will only produce more only if he plays. He has played as an All Star level once.
McCutchen will reliably give you more than replacement level but his All Star days are behind him.
Pollack is a roll of the dice: could give you a 5-7 WAR or could only make the field 100 times.
McCutchen is likely to give what he gave the Giants last year which helped make them a .500 team but not a contender. He should play LF in a park like AT&T.
I like Richards he is nails when healthy but rarely healthy. If he came cheap he would be a great insurance plan for 2020 when MadBum will possibly be gone. I saw a few other names on mlbtraderumors that caught my eye for next season. Steve Pearce, Marwin Gonzalez, and Yasmani Grandal. Instant power and all 3 can play the OF. Sign those 4 guys and see what happens next season
ReplyDelete