Jeremy Hellickson has has his ups and downs since he was the darling of the sabermetric crowd as a Rays prospect in the late 2000's. Last year was a pretty good season when he pitched but he was limited to 19 Starts and 91.1 IP due to injuries including a hammy strain early in the season and a wrist sprain in August that he aggravated in late September. Here's Hellickson's breakdown:
Performance: After accepting a 1 year QO from the Phillies in his first FA season, he had a terrible 2017 with an ERA of 5.43. He was traded to the Nationals midseason. Last year he had to take a minor league deal with the Nationals. His ERA was a much improved 3.45 although is FIP and xFIP were 4.22 and 4.27 respectively. He has always been a control pitcher with low walk rates and 2018 was his best yet with a BB/9 of 1.97. His K rates have always been pedestrian at best and his 2018 of 6.41 was close to his career average. His has a small groundball tendency, but is better at inducing pop ups and short flyballs(more on that later).
Stuff: Hellickson features at least 5 pitches: 4-seam, 2-seam, Cutter, knuckle-curve and changeup. His average FB velocity was a barely passable 89.7 with his 4-seamer a tick higher. There is an interesting Fangraphs article from just yesterday looking at Potential Pitch Mix Improvements for Free Agents(Part 1). Hellickson topped the list with the observation that his 2-seam FB is just not very good. He only got a 2% swinging strikes out of it and just a 40% GB rate. The 4-seamer which he throws up in the zone is a much better swing and miss pitch and has a high soft flyball rate. Meanwhile his curve and changeup are both quite good with the changeup being his best pitch. The conclusion was that he could improve his numbers by ditching the sinker and relying on the other 4 pitches. I don't know if I am completely sold in that because he may need the sinker to set up the high 4-seamer, but it's an interesting take.
Intangibles: Hellickson is from Iowa but has spent his entire MLB career pitching on the East Coast. If he's willing to move out west, he may find AT&T Park, Dodger Stadium and Petco Park more friendly to his style of pitching as they should lower his HR/FB. He'll be 32 years old and you have to be somewhat concerned about a pitcher that age with borderline velocity coming off an injury plagued season but the injuries weren't necessarily the type that would be career threatening by themselves.
Cost: Hellickson took a minor league deal last year. I think he may get a low cost MLB deal this year, possibly with incentives. He may be looking for a 1 year deal to rebuild his value for one last big payday. If that is the case, AT&T Park and the NL West is a perfect place to do it.
Conclusion: Jeremy Hellickson is a reasonable bounceback candidate who should come at a relatively low price and could be a nice fit in the Giants rotation.
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2018 Baseball Winter meetings start December 9 in Las Vegas with the PBEO Job Fair and end Thursday, December 13 with the Rule 5 Draft.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that, by then, 6 weeks from tomorrow, we'll get an idea of what the Giants are going to do -- or do we know it's 2017-18 winter all over again but with real money available?
Nice being in Las Vegas: you can get a bet down on "patch-and-pray" and win 10 cents on a dollar!
It's hard to get excited about 2018-2019 FA's when who knows what SF will do...
Well, I hope the Giants have their new management team in place by the Winter Meetings. I have to say they are either playing their interview process close to the vest or they are weirdly moving at a snail's pace.
DeleteIn the meantime, it's an opportunity to scout out the free agent and trade markets just to get an idea of what's available and what might work for 2019 and beyond. The Giants obvious needs are for 2 OF's, C and 1-2 SP's. IMO they can make reasonable upgrades while limiting commitments to 3 years or less which would give the current core a fighting chance over the next 3 seasons without jeopardizing the future beyond 2021. Maaaybe one 5-year contract if they have a shot at AJ Pollock.
Winter meetings will likely be dominated by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado making the rest of the market late developing anyway. IMO the Giants should sit those circuses out. Harper is too risky for the kind of contract he wants and will get while Machado's prima donna antics this postseason have really turned me off. Do not want!
I too now feel I could do w/o Manny Machismo, as well as Harper. As to the Giants’ pace with hires, one possibility is that they’re interested in someone whose current employer is still engaged in post-season play. This hypothesized someone might be a FO member or a player who’s the object of a trade, e.g., Bradley Jr, on which a WS team FO would want to wait till the season’s over. Still another possibility is that the Giants want to wait till season’s end to announce a hiring or hirings that they don’t want overshadowed by what happens in LA/Boston.
DeleteOTOH:
DeleteLatest Update — Oct. 28 MLBTR
Kim Ng’s interview with the Giants is taking place today, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.
KNBR speculation this week:
Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod interviewed last week with the San Francisco organization, per Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. McLeod has long been seen as a strong candidate to lead a baseball operations department, though he has thus far remained content in his significant role with the Cubs.
Hard to believe Bosox trading Junior for 1-year of Bumgarner? Or take a chance that BB could stay healthy and pull the ball straight down the line plus be formidable in Yankee Stadium? Or Joe? Kinsler certainly isn't a lot of help, but for his error it would have been a sweep. Gotta like Holt, tho.
Interesting how Red Sox rotate their outfield with Martinez moving to the corner opposite the batter and Betts/Jr shifting to the batter side. JD was in RF checking his notes! They don't have to worry with that in their AL park, but works in LA -- not so much in SF,
Maybe part of the slowness is that the Giants want their GM candidates to spell out a strategic plan and wanted to give them some time to do their homework rather than coming in with little time to prepare shooting from the hip?
DeleteAs I've said before, I have no idea who the best person for the job is, but I hoping Kim Ng comes in today, crushes the interview and gets the job.
DeleteHellickson is a great example of a guy who just might have a shot at a real turnaround pitching at AT&T half the time. He might have an extreme home/away split, but a promising roll-the-dice candidate for sure.
ReplyDeleteWhat I want to know is where is the Giants' Max Muncy? A guy versatile enough to play 2B in the World Series and he hits 35 bombs. Pretty crazy.
Again, the Giants have not been chopped liver in the Dumpster Dive market. Seems like they had a couple of guys named Juan Uribe and Aubrey Huff a few years ago. Andres Torres? Ryan Vogelsong? Dereck Rodriguez? Derek Holland? The Dodgers success with Turner, Taylor and Muncy is impressive, but I don't think the Giants have anything to be ashamed of in the Dumpster Dive department.
DeleteAgreed Doc, but can I have a Muncy anyway?
DeleteNo Muncys for you! LOL!
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