Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Steven Duggar. The Giants have had a string of young OF's get hurt just as they seemed to be settling into a starting role. Duggar's injury, a dislocation of his left(non-throwing) shoulder, should be one he's fully recovered from by spring training. Here's how the CF Depth Chart shakes out:
MLB: 1. Steven Duggar- played plus defense in CF and hit sustainably well with some speed on the basepaths. Comps to Steve Finley seem legit. Should be the starter in 2019 unless the Giants sign AJ Pollock and move Duggar to RF. 2. Gorkys Hernandez- Hit 15 dingers and stole 8 bases last year but fell off badly in the second half with a .162 BA with 4 dingers. He's an OK 5'th OF but even that could be upgraded.
AAA: Empty(Peter Bourjos is a FA).
AA: Ronnie Jebavy- Fine defensive CF, but the bat has never gotten any traction.
A+: Bryce Johnson- has a knack for getting on base despite close to zero power. Stole 31 bases for SJ in 2018. Johneshwy "Tools" Fargas- finally got over the SJ hump with a .288 BA with 8 HR's and 47 SB's. May be a minor league FA after 6 years in the Giants system. Should get a shot at AA if the Giants keep him.
Low A: Heliot Ramos- Held his own at age 18 in a very tough hitting environment. 2017 first round draftee. Do the Giants move him up to SJ or keep him in Augusta another season? I currently have him as the #2 prospect in the Giants organization.
Short Season: Aaron Bond- flashed power and speed with 14 dingers and 11 SB's. Intriguing size at 6'5", 195 pounds. Jose Layer- Career .296 BA in 3 minor league seasons. Can he carry that up to full season ball in 2019?
Rookie AZL: Alexander Canario- Very toolsy 18 yo CF. Got off to a hot start in Arizona flashing power and speed, then cooled off. Might be better served by staying in camp then going to Salem-Keizer in 2019. Patrick Hilson- Toolsy HS draftee struggled in his pro debut. Longterm project.
DSL: Richgelon Juliana- Love the name. Showed a nice combination of power and speed at age 18 on the DSL.
Free Agents: AJ Pollock is a guy the Giants might, and probably should, go after in free agency. If they do, the Giants need a RF with CF speed so either he or Steven Duggar could move over to RF. Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen are not really CF's anymore. If the Giants sign either, it should be to fill a corner OF spot. The rest of the CF FA class is made up of the Usual Suspects.
Summary: I haven't really dug into the trade market for CF but it's likely that either Steven Duggar or AJ Pollock are the Giants best options for 2019. If the do sign Pollock, one of the two should play RF.
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A reasonable yardstick for Pollock: Lorenzo Cain got 5 years/$80MM last winter.
ReplyDeletePollock is more than a year younger, close to 1.5 years.
Surely AZ will give him a QO: $17.9MM.
Cain also has had some health issues.
Pollack might get more, but health-wise has the possibility of becoming another white elephant.
That said, to compete in 2019, the Giants need a signing like Pollock, but given the thinness of the upcoming class it's likely to take 9 figures.
If it fails, it adds to the Giants top-end overloaded commitments.
McCutchen to play LF would cost half, and for fewer years, but the Giants need power or more move-the-line guys.
BTW, any penalty for any team who signs a FA who rejected a QO is AFTER THE FIRST ROUND -- a team's highest first-round pick is always exempt from forfeiture, regardless of the team's finish the previous year.
ReplyDeleteIf the Giants did not exceed the CBT last year, they will lose their second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If they sign two such players, they will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658
OK, I understand that since the Giants stayed under the cap this season, they reset their penalty down to 20%, but doesn't it just start escalating again after that? If they sign players to multi-year contracts that put them back over the cap in 2019, they will also likely be over in 2020 and 2021 and won't the penalties for 2021 be severe again?
DeleteCan someone disabuse me of this notion?
If they go over in 2019, they'll probably be over in 2020.
ReplyDeleteFor 2021 they lose Samardzija and Melacon ($34MM).
Depending if Panik and Dyson are still around (2019: ~$10MM, 2020: ~$12-14MM) and not signed that could reduce payroll up toward $50MM (plus Pence) for 2021.
With Pence's $18.5MM beginning now, that's a lot of FA money by 2021 if spent this off season and next.
If Kim Ng shops like my wife and sister-in-law, we'll be in CBT hell forever.
(The last part is supposed to be funny.)
Bumgarner's (most likely) coming off in 2020, but Smith (if re-signed), Holland (if signed), and other arbitration increases will eat that up.
DeleteTo contend, with Duggar in CF, the Giants must get "good" hitting (.275+) in the corners, at least positive+ fielding in RF, and power+ in one or the other corners.
ReplyDeleteThey had none of that in 2018, and they didn't contend.
In the last 2 years the Giants have been next to bottom in runs scored (14th of 15 in NL): that HAS to go UP.
Either better hitting throughout the line up (2018 TOP 2 qualifying SF BA's: .284 & .255, overall 10th in NL) or more power (2018 top: 16, 15, 15, 14, 10 HRs for 14th of 15 teams).
That won't win with middle of the road pitching.
It could be fixable, but Harper is a bad OFer. Pollock, IF HEALTHY, would go a long way (big IF), but some one has to produce in LF. Another D'back, David Peralta, might fix that if AZ decides to unload this year. Could Williamson, Shaw, Slater, and Hanson combine to hit 30 HRs while playing LF?
Conceivably, Giants could get Pollock AND McCutchen for what Pence and McCutchen cost them in 2018.
ReplyDeletePolloch/Duggar in C-RF, McCutchen in LF takes care of the OF no matter what happens with Mac, Slater, Shaw, Jones, Hanson, et al.
Cutch leading off (and getting on base at a higher ratre than any likely Giant lead off), followed by Pollock fortifying a rejuvenated Posey and the IF All-Stars, might score 4 runs.
That will be a contender.