It gets harder and harder to project draft picks the deeper you go into the draft. The first round is very hit and miss. By the time you get to the 3'rd round, it's already like finding a needle in a haystack. Still, you can get a general idea of what kinds of players may be available at that spot, which for the Giants is #87 overall. Here are some possibilities:
#87 on BA's Top 500 is Taylor Sparks, 3B, UCI. He's a college hitter who I like a lot. Don't worry about his numbers. He plays in an extreme pitcher friendly environment. You know Matt Duffy? Just look up his numbers at Long Beach State! There is a good chance that Sparks would turn into a terrific value for Round 3.
There are several college pitchers who might be available depending on which ranking you look at. The guy I would be most excited about if he was available is Zach Lemond, RHP, Rice. Lemond is 6'4', 200 lbs. He has been both a closer and a starter for Rice. His FB goes 90-95 and he has a curveball and changeup. His pitching line this year: 4-1, 1.34, 53.2 IP, 16 BB, 52 K's, 3 Saves.
Other college pitchers who may be available at #87 include:
Daniel Gossett, RHP, Clemson. 7-2, 1.93, 107.1 IP, 30 BB, 107 K's. 6'1", 185 lbs.
Jace Fry, LHP, Oregon State. 11-2, 1.80, 120.1 IP, 30 BB, 98 K's. 6'0", 197 lbs.
Aaron Brown, LHP, Pepperdine. 12-1, 2.07, 108.2 IP, 38 BB, 100 K's. 6'1", 220 lbs.
Wyatt Strahan, RHP, USC. 6'3", 225 lbs. 6-5, 3.28, 104.1 IP, 49 BB, 89 K's.
Strahan is a big boy with a big fastball, but with obvious command issues and a performance that does not match his stuff and scouting report. He's a guy the Giants might think they can fix with a few mechanical tweaks.
There are at least 3 HS pitchers who scout favorably with kids who are ranked much higher in most draft rankings:
David Peterson, LHP, Ryan Castellani, RHP, Trey Supak, RHP.
If the Giants took a hitter in round 1 then took 1 of Carson Sands, Mac Marshall or Keith Weisenberg in round 2 and then 1 out of the 3 kids named above, I would feel really good about the draft.
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Hi Doc, Yes I, too, would feel good about a haul such as you describe above. With pitchers being such a fragile commodity and with this being such a deep pitching draft, I don't think there is a huge difference in risk/reward with picking a high upside pitcher in Round 2 vs Round 1 this year, especially if we are talking about high schoolers who are so far from being finished products . I would have to qualify this by saying that the hitter taken in Round 1 would preferably not be a bat-only type (sorry, Mr. Conforto) since there would be a greater risk of a wasted pick if the bat does not develop as expected. Therefore, Derek Hill and Monte Harrison are starting to grow on me the closer we get to the draft. Even Brad Zimmer might be a nice pick given his toolsiness and the fact that the Giants' swing doctors have helped another lanky hitter with a longish swing and initially untapped power in Belt.
ReplyDeleteI'm to the point of almost praying for Derek Hill, unless of course Touki should miraculously fall!
DeleteWe are in the same boat with Hill DrB. He's become my favorite player available, just in the last week alone. The fact that he's rumored to the Giants makes it all the more sweeter. The videos I've watched of him impress me so much. He's not the biggest guy around, and he isn't the biggest name prospect, but that batch of tools, and the makeup he has to go along with it, I think would make him one heck of a prospect to follow. I love the Gustavo Cabrera comp you made the other night. I think you hit the nail on the head with that one. Two very similar sized players, with similar skillsets. Gustavo may still have a higher ceiling (if he's ever fully healthy again), but Hill might have a better shot to be a MLB contributor. He seems to have a very level head on his shoulders, and plays the game all out. I love it!
DeleteAlso, I think your argument here is solid bbjunkie. No Conforto/Fisher/Gillaspie for me... although I will say, one guy who has impressed me lately is Kyle Schwarber. That kid's power might be real, and he might be the one bat I'd make an exception for. Otherwise (if Hill wasn't available), I'd lean more toward a Pentecost, Turner or Zimmer, guys who play value positions and offer some athleticism as well. I think you're spot on with your idea to take a bat in round 1. So much pitching available, might as well get a hitter in a good spot, as they'll thin out very quickly after the comp rounds.
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