We've talked a lot about the "post-prospects", players who have too much MLB experience to qualify as rookies and therefore don't conform to the "rules" of who can be included in prospect rankings. On the other hand, they have not yet established any role on the team and might well start the season playing in the minor leagues or they may well emerge as future Giants stars. Let's break it down and look at this group of players who could well determine whether the Giants have a successful season in 2025 or not. I am just going to run through the 40-man roster starting with the pitchers rather than trying to rank them.
Tristan Beck RHP. DOB: 6/24/1996. 6' 4", 165 lbs(he definitely weighs more than 165 lb!). Drafted 2018 Round 4(ATL).
2024(AAA): 0-1, 7.90, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9, 1.98 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 0-0, 1.69, 16.0 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.25 BB/9.
Beck might be a bit too established to be a post-prospect but since we love to talk about players we're all about inclusivity here. Beck pitched 85 innings with a 3.92 ERA in 2023 in a swingman role. He was expected to make the 2024 team in a similar role but experienced numbness in his throwing hand in spring training leading to a diagnosis of a subclavian artery aneurysm. Yikes! He underwent surgery and came back to pitch well in a small sample late in the season. If he remains healthy through spring training he is a good bet to make the Opening Day roster as a swingman/long reliever. He does still have 2 options despite being 28 years old which tends to work against him in this situation.
Hayden Birdsong RHP. DOB: 8/30/2001. 6' 4", 215 lbs. Drafted 2022 Round 6.
2024(AA): 4-2, 2.05, 48.1 IP, 11.36 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.
2024(AA): 1-0, 5.00, 9 IP, 14.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 5-6, 4.75, 11.00 K/9, 5.38 BB/9.
Birdsong was rushed into the gap when the Giants starting rotation fell apart and pitchers who were expected to recover from injuries didn't. He showed electric stuff with a FB that averaged 96 MPH, a diving curveball and a better than decent changeup, but his command was inconsistent. With Kyle Harrison likely ahead of him on the SP depth chart, he may well start the season in AAA barring an injury to the projected starting 5. Has 3 options.
Kyle Harrison LHP. DOB: 8/12/2001. 6' 2", 200 lbs. Drafted 2020 Round 3($2.5 M bonus).
2024(MLB): 7-7, 4.56, 124.1 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9.
I forgot Harrison spend all season on the active roster last season(except when on the IL). He started strong but faded in the second half with reduced velocity and eventually went on the IL with shoulder soreness which sounds kind of ominous. Report out of spring training camp have him in the Best Shape of His Life with his velocity back up. Harrison's explanation is he had an ankle injury that altered his motion that had a cascade effect. He says that's all corrected. He's the guy the Giants want to take the #5 SP role so it's probably his job to lose. Potential to be a Madison Bumgarner level ace if he stays healthy. Has 3 options.
Spencer Bivens RHP. DOB: 6/28/1994. 6' 5", 205 lbs. Signed as free agent out of indy ball in 2022.
2024(AAA): 5-1, 2.92, 49.1 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.95 GB/FB.
2024(MLB): 3-1, 3.14, 48.2 IP, 6.84 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.61 GB/FB, 1 Save, 2 Starts
Bivens has a great story line and pitched really well in multiple roles. His FB runs 95 MPH, he throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground. Throws 3 types of fastball, slider and changeup but relies on the sinker for 50% of his pitches. Really, really deserves to be on the 2025 Opening Day roster. 2 options.
Landen Roupp RHP. DOB: 9/10/1998. 6' 2", 205 lbs. Drafted 2021 Round 12.
2024(ACL): 0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 21.6 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.
2024(AAA): 0-1, 3.80, 21.1 IP, 12.66 K/9, 5.91 BB/9. 1.77 GB/FB.
2024(MLB): 1-2, 3.58, 50.1 IP, 8.40 K/9, 4.65 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.
Roupp has not been a highly rated prospect but impressed when thrown in the gap last year. He throws a 94 MPH sinker and a hammer curveball with an occasional changeup. Made 4 starts in 23 appearances and can pitch in a swingman role. There are only so many roster spots for that role though and he has plenty of competition. 2 options.
Keaton Winn RHP. DOB: 2/20/1998. 6' 4", 238 lbs. Drafted 2018 Round 5.
2024(MLB): 3-8, 7.16, 55.1 IP, 7.81 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.67 GB/FB.
Winn has the size and stuff to be a MLB star. FB goes 96 MPH backed up by a splitter. His big problem is staying healthy. History of Tommy John surgery. His season ended in July with ulnar nerve transposition surgery. 2 options. It would not be a surprise to see him start the 2025 season in the 60-day IL.
Casey Schmitt IF. DOB: 3/1/1999. B-R, T-R. 6' 2", 215 lbs. Drafted 2020 Round 2.
2024(AAA): .274/.343/.469, 16 2B, 13 HR, 11 SB, 9.3 BB%, 20.9 K%, 335 PA.
2024(MLB): .252/.283/.477, 4 2B, 6 HR, 3.5 BB%, 22.1 K%, 113 PA.
Casey Schmitt has a pitchers arm with athleticism to play multiple infield positions including SS. He has toonder in his bat. His big problem has been swinging at absolutely everything in or out of the strike zone. As you can see his walk rate improved significantly in AAA and his swing decisions were noticeably better in a late call up last season. There is a back up infielder role up for competition. Can he sustain his newfound plate discipline enough to win it? He could be a terrific super-utility guy. 1 option.
David Villar IF. DOB: 1/27/1999. B-R, T-R. 6' 1", 215 lbs. Drafted 2018 Round 11.
2024(AAA): .260/.361/.441, 26 2B, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 482 PA.
2024(MLB): .257/.270/.457, 4 2B, HR, 2.7 BB%, 35.1 K%, 37 PA.
Villar is the forgotten man. He has consistently put up good numbers in the minor leagues but consistently struggled at the MLB level(although his cup of coffee last season was not THAT bad). His primary position is 3B which is now blocked and Jerar Encarnacion, of all people, is ahead of him on the 1B/DH depth chart. Fangraphs says he has an option but all other sources say he is out of options which, if true, means he probably won't be a Giant by the start of the season. I think he still has an Adam Duvall-esque future but like Duvall will probably achieve it with another organization.
Jerar Encarnacion OF/1B/DH. DOB: 10/22/1997. B-R, T-R. 6' 4", 250 lbs. Signed as free agent out of indy ball May 2024.
2024(AAA): .352/.438/.616, 10 HR, 12.3 BB%, 24.0 K%, 146 PA.
2024(MLB): .248/.277/.425, 5 2B, 5 HR, 4.2 BB%, 28.8 K%, 119 PA.
Encarnacion showed off light-tower power last season after the Giants signed him out of the Mexican League. Honestly, his numbers don't look much different than David Villar's but for some reason Bob Melvin is talking him up as a potential DH option with not one word about Villar which I am sure tells us something about their relative chances of making the Opening Day active roster. Encarnacion is also out of options. He is pretty much a one-dimensional player but it's intriguing to think about what he might do with 600 PA's in a season.
Marco Luciano OF. DOB: 9/10/2001. B-R, T-R. 6' 1", 178 lbs. Amateur free agent July 2018.
2024(AAA): .250/.380/.380, 9 2B, 10 HR, 4 SB, 16.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 384 PA.
2024(MLB): .211/.259/.303, 5 2B, 3B, 6.2 BB%, 34.6 K%, 81 PA.
What a long strange trip it's been for Marco Luciano. He was the Giants top ranked prospect for several years with glowing scouting reports, especially for the bat. He was in line to be the Giants SS of the future starting with Opening Day 2024 but between Nick Ahmed and a late spring injury that did not happen. He didn't start his minor league season until mid-May. When Ahmed collapsed and Luciano finally got a chance to start at SS he made a series of almost comical errors which opened the door for Tyler Fitzgerald who grabbed the opportunity. It all happened so fast it was hard to tell if it was just rookie nerves, the yips or he's just a bad fielder. After Jorge Soler was traded, FZ basically said the DH job was Luciano's to lose. He DH'd a total of 7 games then disappeared again. Was that Bob Melvin's decision or FZ's? Luciano is back in camp this spring saying he felt lost at the plate most of last season and worked all offseason to get comfortable again. Melvin says he will play exclusively corner OF. He has 1 option. Is his pro career salvageable?
Luis Matos OF. DOB: 1/28/2002. B-R, T-R. 5' 11", 160 lbs. Amateur Free Agent July 2018.
2024(AAA): .258/.328/.451, 22 2B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.5 BB%, 10.7 K%, 375 PA.
2024(MLB): .213/237/.347, 5 2B, 5 HR, 3.2 BB%, 15.4 K%, 156 PA.
Matos signed with the same international class as Marco Luciano. At one point Matos rose to near the top of several Giants prospect rankings. He has run hot and cold through most of his pro career and has had some extremely hot streaks at the MLB level which he was not able to maintain. He went on another tear in the Venezuelan Winter League with a .300/.345/.536 line with 20 2B, 10 HR in 235 PA. He has a better than decent chance to win a 4'th or 5'th OF role but will compete with Jerar Encarnacion, Marco Luciano and Grant McCray. He also has 1 option.
What a treat to see all the post-prospects summary all at once. Thank you for the informative post.
ReplyDeleteHarrison said that he and the coaches missed something that led to his drop in velocity. To his credit, he did not throw Price under the bus but Martinez was on the staff, also. It might have been from the ankle injury he suffered in June that led to some bad habits.
ReplyDeleteand Hjelle and Rodriguez and Wisely, plus last few seasons have seen debuts of Bailey, Walker, Ramos, Fitzgerald, also Bart -- the best worst farm system ever
ReplyDeleteThanks for this post. These players listed above are critical to how this season plays out. Here is my short list of make or break players:
ReplyDelete1) Marco Luciano_Luciano is going to have to step up, I hope he gets his bat together in Sacramento while he learns to play the outfield. If so, he could be a potent weapon or a trading chip to use when needed.
2)Luis Matos- I am a big fan of Luis Matos. I believe he has a higher ceiling than Yaz. I look for him to get hot, stay hot and minimize the mistakes he made last year.
3) Camilo Doval-Not on this list, as he is considered a veteran is Camilo Doval. If he can put his dominate game back on the table the Giants will have one of the best bullpens in mlb with Rogers, Doval and Walker in the 7th, 8th and 9th.
4) Keaton Winn -He is also a player that has a high ceiling. Pitching injuries will happen. The Giants will have a group of SP arms in Sacramento. Winn IMHO is one of the best arms in waiting that could provide an impact. Personally, I am glad Buster didn't plunk down huge $s for Corbin Burnes or some vet. I would rather see the arms listed above (Roup, Beck and Birdsong) get a chance and see what we have.
I am excited for what should be an interesting spring and compelling season.
I feel like if Matos and/or Luciano can just get over that last hump they have potential to be star players for many years.
DeleteDoc another great post > I am very optomistic > assuming the baseball Gods > the Two Willies are shining down on thhe team > health and the kids come thru!!
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
P.S. I am a proud Canadian, but Can't relinquish my life long love for the Giants!
Go Giants > Oh Eh!! Canada is not for sale!
We live in strange and troubling times.
DeleteGreat post! Looking forward to your predictions for the coming season …
ReplyDeleteI don't think you want to see my predictions. I am hopelessly optimistic and almost never right.
DeleteThanks for posting this Doc. Encanarcions power bat is intriguing and they don't have a clear #4 + #5 outfielder and out of options, good chance he'll make the team. Villar situation a little different while out of options, they don't have an ovious opening at corner infield spots. Luis Matos-breakout candidate after being named MVP of the winter league.he played in? He hasn't dominated in AAA. Is it better for his development to be an extra outfielder on Giants MLB roster.or get consistent Abs in AAA. He has 1 option. Marco Luciano- he needs to put on his hitting shoes to get back in the MLB conversation. Didnt understand his callup in 2024 after hitting 250 in AAA. If he hits like he's capable off they will find a position for him.
ReplyDeleteIn his interview with Brodie Brazil, Melvin sure sounded like he wants to give Encarnacion the opportunity.
DeleteHopefully Villar can get a lottery ticket prospect in a trade before he is eventually DFA'd after spring training.
ReplyDeleteJerar hit .297 with 4 home runs in 43 games in Dominican winter ball. He played 30 games in the outfield, mostly in RF.
ReplyDelete