Spring Training Game Wrap 3/2/2024: Padres 3 Giants 2

A late Giants rally to tie the game in the 8'th inning went for naught as the Padres scored in the top of the 9'th and held on to send the Giants to another spring training loss.  Key Lines:

Giants had 8 hits in the game by 8 different batters including doubles by Tom Murphy and Thairo Estrada.

Mason Black RHP- 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 5.40.  Black struck out the side in the first inning around a double.  The run was pure bad luck as Forever Giant Bryce Johnson hit a fly ball that Wade Meckler lost in the sun in LF.  He took third on a bunt single and scored on a wild pitch.  Is Black in the mix for n Opening Day rotation spot?

Taylor Rogers LHP, Camilo Doval RHP and Amir Garrett LHP recorded scoreless frames.

Jordan Hicks RHP makes his second spring start tomorrow against the Guardians facing Tanner Bibee RHP in Scottsdale.

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We've already hashed and rehashed the Matt Chapman signing in the Comments after yesterday's post.  Sine the Giants already had an incumbent 3B who Chapman will apparently replace, I thought we could do a smackdown and see just how much of an upgrade this move is.  I will say that if the Giants really, really wanted Chapman, which is how it appears, FZ emphatically won a very ballsy staredown with Scott Boras to keep the amount of guaranteed money far below industry projections.  

Matt Chapman 3B.  DOB:  4/28/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 215 lbs.  

2023(Blue Jays):  .240/.330/.424, 17 HR, 10.7 BB%, 28.4 K%, UZR/150- +8.7, fWAR= 3.5.  

2024(ZIPS):  .241/333/.438, 22 HR, 11.2 BB%, 27.6 K%, fWAR= 3.7.

Note:  Chapman hit 27 HR in 2021(A's) and in 2022(Blue Jays).  The only significant difference in his stat line from 2023 is HR/FB which fell off significantly.  That's a stat that is supposed to normalize so we should expect at least some positive regression.  On the other hand, Roger's Stadium is HR neutral while Oracle Park still pretty severely suppresses HR's.

J. D. Davis 3B.  DOB 4/27/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 218 lbs.  

2023(Giants):  .248/.325/.413, 18 HR, 9.5 BB%, 27.8 K%, UZR/150= 0.8, fWAR= 2.2.

2024(ZIPS):  .249/.334/.411, 14 HR, 9.9 BB%, 28.9 K%, fWAR= 1.8.  

Note:  although Davis had a neutral UZR at 3B last year ZIPS expects it to regress into negative territory this season.  

Smackdown Verdict: Two very similar players although Chapman appears to be a definite upgrade.  Whether that upgrade is large enough to justify the investment is debatable and remains to be seen. There does seem to be a larger WAR gap when using bWAR but I tend to believe fWAR is more accurate.   It does create an awkward situation regarding Davis' fate.  At this point it appears some type of trade scenario involving Davis is in the cards.  What can the Giants get in return?  3B is a fairly stacked position across MLB which is one reason why Chapman's market was soft.