That performance came with some downside though as Pillar had a walk rate of just 2.8% which translated into an OBP of .287. The highlight reel catches masked a distinct lack of range manifested mostly by playing way too deep which allowed a lot of balls to fall in front of him. Add that all up and his fWAR was a pedestrian 1.5, which brings us to the question of whether the Giants should offer him arbitration and risk an approximately $10 M payout.
Now, if he repeats his 1.5 fWAR, he'll earn his $10 M and more and it's just a 1 year contract. On the other hand, does Farhan really want to spend $10 M he could allocate to, say, signing Gerrit Cole and take up a roster spot he could use for a cheaper, better alternative in CF and/or a much better hitting corner OF? Ha! You say. That's just the rub. There is no better, cheaper alternative so we're stuck! Pay him the $10 M and have faith he will perform to another 1.5 fWAR.
Here is my answer: YtY! Yes, Mike Yastrzemski didn't play much CF for the Giants in 2019, but he did not embarrass himself when he did. He also spent about 1/3 of the total innings of his minor league career playing CF. So, he should be able to play passable D in CF where his bat plays up. Joey Rickard has enough CF experience he can play the short end of the platoon in a position where his RH platoon bat plays up. Mike Gerber and Steven Duggar are still on the 40-man roster and CF depth. I would then try to sign Marcel Ozuna(Kylie McDaniel/Fangraphs estimated contract for Ozuna is 4 yrs/$70 M) to play RF in a reconfigured Oracle Park with Alex Dickerson and Austin Slater or Jaylin Davis forming another platoon in LF.
Conclusion: Do not tender a contract to Kevin Pillar and re-allocate the $10 M from his estimated 2020 salary.
Most likely worth 10M for a year BUT eats a roster spot blocking alternatives. Could put a real slug like Nicholas Castellanos in LF and back him him. LOL he can play a little 3B, too.
ReplyDeletePut the giants other power hitter behind him so they have to pitch to Nick -- oh, who's the other power hitter?
Castellanos will get a walk any time the game is on the line because the Giants can't get him home.
FWIW, Missouri Sports Hall of Fame Writer Rob Rains hangs it all out for how the NLCS losing Cardinals should improve including trading GG Kolten Wong, Carlos Martinez, and terrific CFer Harrison Bader for ONE YEAR of Mookie Betts.
ReplyDeleteInteresting read -- wonder if Farhan would dare something like this if he were in St Louis.
https://stlsportspage.com/2019/11/01/eight-moves-which-should-be-on-the-cardinals-to-do-list-this-winter-including-trading-for-mookie-betts/
Here's my hot take:
ReplyDeleteIt's really unlikely that Gerrit Cole is coming to SF. A guy like him can go to any number of exciting young contending teams, and his desire to come here at the beginning of what may be a significantly long rebuild is probably luke warm at best - even though the money may be here. As we saw last year with Harper, even when the Giants go all out in the media, and then add a higher price tag, guys are not excited about this team as presently constructed, and what's generally construed as a bit of a doll-drum clubhouse having not evolved much in the last 5 years.. That's been my view, anyhow, and I'm glad for a new start.
It's going to be a significant rebuild, and in the mean-time, I think it's going to be really, really hard to bring top FAs here. Rose colored glasses say all it takes is money..
That's OK with me, I'm patient on the rebuild as I was from 2007 to 2010, and it was SPECTACULAR. I won't mind seeing us become under-dogs again, and start sneaking up on people with young kids who no one has ever heard of. I think in the modern MLB, that's what it takes, you can't guy playoff wins, if the Padres have taught us anything.
I wouldn't mind Zaidi trying to field a competitive team for 2020. If so, I like Doc's idea to put YtY in CF and signing Marcel Ozuna. Here is my off-season wishlist:
ReplyDeleteSP - Madison Bumgarner 4/72 $18 AVV
SP - Takahiro Norimoto 4/48 $12
SP - Kyle Gibson 3/36 $12
RF - Marcel Ozuna 4/72 $18
RP - Drew Pomeranz 2/12 $6
RP - Sam Dyson 2/6 $3
C - Stephen Vogt 1/3 $3
Total spent: $72 mil, well under CBT for more moves at the deadline if needed.
Rotation:
Madison Bumgarner (L)
Johnny Cueto
Jeff Samardzija
Takahiro Norimoto
Kyle Gibson
Bullpen:
Drew Pomeranz (L) - Closer
Sam Dyson
Trevor Gott
Tony Watson (L)
Sam Coonrod
Jandel Gustave
Tyler Rogers
Lineup:
CF Mike Yastrzembski (L)
2B Mauricio Dubon
1B Brandon Belt (L)
RF Marcel Ozuna
LF Alex Dickerson (L)
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brandon Crawford (L)
C Buster Posey
Bench:
C Stephen Vogt (L)
IF Donovan Solano
OF Joey Rickard
OF Jaylin Davis
IF/OF Drew Robinson (L)
AAA Rotation Depth:
Shaun Anderson
Andrew Suarez (L)
Tyler Beede
Connor Menez (L)
Logan Webb
Tyler Anderson (L)
Dereck Rogdriguez
A lot will depend on health but I believe this team can be competitive for the 2nd WC. This is where having a Bumgarner is key--giving you a great chance to win the WC game and then beyond. The most tried and true formula for playoffs success has always been pitching and timely hitting.