Sunday, November 3, 2019

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Overview; Austin Martin

The 2019 draft was one of the weaker drafts in memory mostly because of an extreme weakness in pitching.  The college pitching crop was extremely weak and the HS pitching was possibly even weaker.  Just 9 of the 30 first round picks were pitchers and the first HS pitcher taken was at #18.  The Giants took just one pitcher out of their first 10 picks.  College hitting was probably slightly above average while HS hitting was about par.  A preliminary look at the 2020 draft looks like it is at least more balanced between hitting and pitching.  Whether that translates into overall strength remains to be seen.

The Giants are set to draft at #13 overall.  That would only change if a team above them exceeds the CBT threshold by more than $40 M and gets dropped by 10 slots, which seems unlikely.  Statistically, the top ROI comes from college hitters and it's not really close.  Next is probably college pitching then HS hitting with HS pitching bringing up the rear due to a frightful injury rate.  Having said that, pitching is currently extremely thin in the Giants organization, as weak as I can remember.  Organizational need should definitely not dictate the first round pick, but they might want to lean pitching in subsequent rounds all else being equal.

With that overview, let's get on with our draft prospect profiles.  We'll use the current Fangraphs BOARD rankings and work our way down the list.  As we profile new names we will develop our own ranking which may or may not be the same as the Fangraphs ranking.

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Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt):  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 170 lbs.

2018:  .338/.452/414, 14 2B, HR, 22 SB, 12.82 BB%, 16.85 K%, 273 PA.
2019:  .410/.503/.619, 19 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 18 SB, 12.84 BB%, 10.47 K%, 296 PA.

Based on Fangraphs scouting report, Martin brings a plus-plus hit tool with superior plate discipline and emerging power.  Fangraphs guys say his athleticism and overall fielding is behind Dansby Swanson at the same stage and could end up at 2B, but has more than enough bat to make that close to irrelevant.  On video he has a compact, yet powerful swing and is able to pull his arms in and get around on an inside FB.  So, Austin Martin has the pole position to start the 2020 draft cycle.

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