Scouting the 2018 Draft: Rumors and Tea Leaves

We're starting to hear rumors about specific draft targets for specific teams.  While Casey Mize has emerged as a consensus Best Player Available for the Tigers at 1-1, the second tier is still unsettled, though there seems to be a strong trend toward college hitters as the draft approaches which happens almost every year.  Aside from Mize, the other highly ranked college pitchers seem to have faded for a variety of reasons.  Brady Singer has had a so-so senior season and questions about his delivery and ability to stick as a SP have gotten louder.  Logan Gilbert and Shane McClanahan who were red hot early on the college season have cooled off a bit in the middle.

On the HS side of the pitching class, RHP Carter Stewart has emerged as the top prospect with Matthew Liberatore slipping just a hair and Kumar Rocker coming more in the 10-15 range for reasons that are unclear as reports of his stuff continue to be positive.

On the hitting side, as reports on Nander De Sedas have soured a bit, Jarred Kelenic seems to be left as the lone HS hitter in the top 2 tiers.

That leaves openings for 4 college bats:  Travis Swaggerty, Nick Madrigal, Alec Bohm and Joey Bart.  All but Madrigal are having terrific junior seasons while Madrigal seems to have actually benefitted from an early season hand injury which has kept him out of most of his season.

All of the rumors coming out of the Giants camp point to them taking a college bat at #2 overall.  If I recall correctly, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs sniffed out the Giants plan to draft Christian Arroyo several years ago. He's saying the Giants will not draft Madrigal and are most interested in Swaggerty or Bart, with Swaggerty being the most likely pick.

So, let's break this down:  The Giants strongest draft tendency is to take up-the-middle players in Round 1.  MI, P, CF, C.  Conventional wisdom is they tend to draft college, but that is a much weaker trend than the up-the-middle trend.  They used to draft exclusively pitching in Round 1, but since John Barr took over as Scouting Director, it's been closer to 50-50 and actually leans more toward hitting.

While you expect to get a star player with the second overall pick, there is also a ton of pressure to not swing and miss, so floor becomes a significant factor which strongly favors college talent.  There is also the draft bonus pool to consider.  The second pick comes with a slot bonus allotment of over $7 M.  If there was a clearcut BPA at #2, you would just pony up the full slot bonus, but there isn't, which means it may be smarter to draft a player you can cut an underslot deal with and take your chances on projectable HS talent later in a deep draft.

All of this lends strong credence that Swaggerty and Bart are the Giants top 2 targets.  Swaggerty would seem to have the highest floor of the two although Bart has positional scarcity on his side and the Giants have to be thinking about the end of the catching part of Buster Posey's career.

So, let's take a closer look at Travis Swaggerty and Joey Bart:

Travis Swaggerty, OF, College(Univ. of South Alabama).  B-L, T-L.  5'11", 180 lbs.

2016:  .303/.431/.422, 4 HR, 20 SB, 42 BB, 49 K, 218 AB.
2017:  .356/.484/.571, 11 HR, 19 SB, 49 BB, 45 K, 219 AB.
2018:  .305/.476/.576, 10 HR, 6 SB, 41 BB, 27 K, 141 AB.

Swags is more of a gap power guy, although I've read that he generates impressive exit velocities for his size, and he is not a huge base stealing threat.  He does have enough speed to stick in CF.  His main attraction is his incredible command of the strike zone.  The obvious MLB comp would be Andrew Benintendi, who would be more than worthy of a #2 overall pick.

Joey Bart, C, College(Georgia Tech).  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 225 lbs.

2016:  .299/.351/.382, 1 HR, 8 BB, 34 K, 157 AB.
2017:  .296/.370/.575, 13 HR, 16 BB, 50 K, 186 AB.
2018:  .356/.470/.626, 12 HR, 30 BB, 40 K, 163 AB.

Bart is getting very high marks for his catching defense.  The power is obvious.  He has become a more well-rounded hitter in his junior season, but still has high K rates.  My comp is Mike Zunino.  That's not terrible, but a huge risk for #2 overall, IMO.

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DrB's Updated 2018 Draft Board:

1.  Casey Mize, RHP, College(Auburn).  Emerging consensus top 2018 draft prospect.  Given their draft history of taking college pitchers in round 1, the Tigers will almost certainly draft him 1-1, barring injury of course.

2.  Travis Swaggerty, OF, College(Univ. of South Alabama).  I'm not thrilled with his ceiling, but the obvious Benintendi comp is nothing to scoff at.  He has the highest floor in the draft and that's important too.

3.  Jarred Kelenic, OF, HS.  Very similar player to Swaggerty.  Possibly a bit more power potential, but college experience gives Swags a significantly higher floor.

4.  Kumar Rocker, RHP, HS.  Rocker is still my personal top HS pitcher in the draft.  That physicality is just not available every year.  Committed to Vanderbilt. Expected bonus demands are taking him off a lot of draft boards.

5. Carter Stewart, RHP, HS.  Seems to be the best combination of present performance and projectability amongst HS draft prospects.

6.  Matthew Liberatore, LHP, HS.  Does not quite have the velocity of Rocker or Stewart, but has some projection and seems to have more advanced current pitchability, plus he's a LHP.  Could be the fastest mover among the HS pitchers.  The comp to Madison Bumgarner might be too obvious.