Scouting the Offseason: Free Agent Bargains

I thought it might be fitting on "Black Friday", a term I hate BTW, to take a look at some potential bargains on this year's free agent market.  These are not necessarily names that fit for the Giants, just ones I think are likely to bring positive value to any team that signs them.

Cameron Maybin, OF.  31 yo.  B-R, T-R, 6'3", 215 lbs.  2017:  .228/.318/.365, 10 HR, 33 SB, 11.3 BB%, 20.9 K%, 1.2 fWAR, BABIP .274, 450 PA. CF UZR/150= 10.0.

Maybin is listed outside MLBTR's top 50 FA's. He did get an honorable mention.  They are predicting the guys at the bottom of that list to get contracts with AAV's in the $5-6 M range.  Maybin has had some trouble staying healthy but his injuries are not of the type that are generally recurrent and cause production decline.  Compare his numbers to Billy Hamilton who the Giants are believed to be pursuing and who they would have to give up prospects for.  If you project the SB's to equal PA's, Maybin isn't even that far behind in that category. Hamilton is probably a better fielder, but Maybin still has a positive UZR in CF.  A 3 yr/$15 M deal for Maybin would likely give a positive return over the life of the contract possibly by a large margin.

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Sergio Romo RHP.  35 yo. 2017:  3-1, 3.56, 55.2 IP, 9.54 K/9, 3.07 BB/9.

Sergio Romo finally wore out his welcome in San Francisco and signed with his boyhood favorite team, the Dodgers last year for 1 yr/$3 M.  He then did what any good secret agent would do and blew up his ERA to over 6.  He ended up with the Tampa Bay Rays and immediately started putting up vintage Romo numbers:  2-0, 1.47, 30.2 IP, 7 BB, 28 K's.  Romo ain't getting any younger, but he will likely be available for a 1 year deal at no more than $3 M.  That's a risk worth taking on a reliever with his track record.

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Nick Hundley, C.  34 yo. 2017:  .244/272/.418, 23 2B, 9 HR, 303 PA.

Hundley doesn't seem to be on anybody's radar as a FA.  He's probably not the guy you want to be your starting C, but he might be the best backup catcher in baseball.  He can probably be re-signed for about the same price as last year's 1 yr/$2 M contract.  The Giants might want to sweeten the deal to 2 yrs/$5 M.  He'd still be a bargain at that price.

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Tyler Chatwood, RHP.  28 yo.  2017:  8-15, 4.69, 147.2 IP, 7.31 K/9, 4.69 BB/9, 58.1 GB%.

Chatwood is my white whale of this offseason.  His overall numbers have not looked that great and he tends to walk too many batters, but he has been hurt tremendously by having to pitch half his games in Coors Field.  His away ERA was 3.49.  He has a TJ in his history, but is just 28 years old, averages 94. 7 MPH on his FB and can erase a lot of those walks with GIDP's due to a huge groundball tendency. Oh, and he has absolutely shut down the Giants whenever he's faced them.  MLBTR predicts he'll sign for 3 yrs/$20 M, and that's a bargain.  The team that signs him will be getting a guy who is as likely as anyone out there to be a solid mid-rotation SP over the course of the contract.  If the Giants could trade any of their SP's for something of value in return and then sign Chatwood they would likely be getting just as much production for a much lower price and could re-allocated the difference.

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Jake McGee, LHP.  31 yo.  2017:  0-2, 3.61, 57.1 IP, 9.10 K/9, 2.51 BB/9.

McGee is a big lefty reliever with a FB that averages 95 MPH.  He struggled to adjust to Coors Field in his first season with the Rockies but bounced back with a strong campaign in 2017.  He was even better outside of Coors with a 2.64 Away ERA.  MLBTR projects him to get 3 yr's/$18 M.  That's a bit rich for a lefty reliever, but not by a lot and he could become dominant in an environment like AT &T Park.