Joel Sherman who is a knowledgeable baseball writer who is no stranger to breaking big stories, wrote a speculative piece for the New York Post of trades he thinks the Mets, Yankees and Marlins could make this week at the GM meetings. And why do I or you care about trades the Mets, Yankees or Marlins could make? Well, because 2 of them involve the Giants. Here goes with my comments:
Trade 1: Giants trade Joe Panik to the Yankees for 2B/SS Starlin Castro, RHP Luis Cessa and 1B Tyler Austin. This may actually be a good trade for both sides. Panik is a native New Yorker and a Yankee fan. His left-handed swing is tailor made for Yankee Stadium. Heck, he might hit 30 HR's there! He's a better fielder than Castro. The Giants would get an immediate replacement for Panik who is almost as good. They also get a hard throwing RHP with significant upside who can both start and relieve. Austin is a power hitter throw in. I'm in! I'll add that part of the Yankees motivation is they have way too many MLB caliber players to fit on their 40 man roster so have to trade them before the Winter Meetings or risk getting nothing in return for them.
Trade 2: A 3-way trade that sends Johnny Cueto to the Cubs, Stanton to the Giants and Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist to the Marlins. Zobrist is salary relief to lessen the net cost of Cueto. I know everybody wants to find a place for Stanton and the Giants seem like a perfect fit, but if the Cubs really want Johnny Cueto bad enough to give up Ian Happ and with Zobrist as the salary dump, why not cut out the middleman, avoid the huge risk of Stanton's contract and simply trade Cueto to the Cubs for Happ and Zobrist? Happ is a plus defensive CF with tremendous hitting potential. Zobrist can be the everyday 3B until Christian Arroyo is ready, then go back to being a utility guy.
These 2 trades(my version) would fill the Giants needs in CF, 3B, and partially address pitching. They could then use the money saved to sign Tyler Chatwood, who I think would be terrific pitching half his game in AT&T Park.
Could these trades happen? Would you want them to?
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In Sherman’s scenario, would the Giants ge taking on the entirety of the Stanton contract? If so, he has the Giants giving up Cueto, Arroyo AND Corry for Stanton? That makes no sense. The Giants would be picking up 285M (before the 10M option buyout) in salary while only shedding 84M (before the 5M buyout) AND losing 2 decent prospects (one basically ready for graduation right now).
ReplyDeleteI think that's the idea. I think the theory is the Giants are more worried about the Luxury Tax cap than the salary and Cueto's AAV of $21 M almost offsets Stanton's $25 M for the next 4 years. After that, almost all of the Giants current large contracts are off the books.
DeleteBut yeah, I'd much rather have Happ than Stanton and his contract, so why not cut out the Marlins and just trade Cueto for Happ and Zobrist with Zobrist offsetting part of Cueto's contract? I mean, Zobrist probably is not ever going to be the player he once was, but he still would contribute to the Giants.
Zobrist makes a LOT of money in '18, less in '19, It is relief from Cueto especially long term risk, but does this make Giants a contender? If Cueto as a Giant has a good year (is that a big IF?), the Giants are back in the running, maybe, for a wildcard where anything can happen.
DeleteStanton is a BIG roll of the dice but it also is a, potentially, HUGE gain.
Marlins NEED pitching worse than the Cubs: how about Panik and any two pitchers not named Bumgarner for Stanton and Gordon? If the Marlins don't pick Cueto or Shark, they have to take Pence for the last year of his contract. If they take both (!), Giants rotation becomes Bum, Moore, Blach, Stratton, and (Andrew) Suarez, or Chatwood because there's a lot of money with >$40 million gone.
Stanton and Gordon are worth a run a game -- what the Giants need more than anything else!
Hello DrB,
ReplyDeleteInteresting post, to which I offer my take, FWIW…
Trade 1 (Yankees/Giants): Seems to me the Giants send a superior 2B (defensively for sure, offensively perhaps) to get an inferior 2B (defensively for sure). Starlin Castro is better as SS, but not nearly as good as Crawford. As for Cessna, he’s not really a high ceiling prospect (actually, he was signed by the Mets as a SS, but could not hit so he took to the mound). He’s more of a back-end starter who succeeds by limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Seems to me the Giants have a number of those types in the minors (Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, not to mention Garrett Williams and Matt Krook – both LHP, btw - at a bit lower levels). And they draft second this year – they can have their choice of any but one of the following: Brady Singer, Ethan Hankins, or Kumar Rocker (and it is conceivable they can choose from all 3 if Detroit goes with a non-pitcher). All 3 have much higher ceilings and are younger as well. As for Tyler Austin, he is already 25, strictly a 1B, and is more known for his power than his contact rate. That sounds a lot like Chris Shaw. So you the Giants would give up a more talented player (Panik) at the MLB level and get a less talented player (Castro) at the MLB level and two minor league players who are not upgrades over what they now have. I don’t see it.
Trade 2 (Cubs/Marlins/Giants): From a Giant’s perspective, they give up Cueto and Arroyo to get Stanton. I think the Giants would make this trade (if they think they can replace Cueto from among their young arms in the minors and next year’s draft). Not sure if the Marlins would want to take on Cueto’s contract (unless the Giants throw in a contribution to that). This makes some sense.
As for the Cubs just sending Happ and Zobrist to the Giants for Cueto: Happ is a good athlete who could be a good (but not great) CF, but a case could be made that Steven Duggar is the same - Austin Slater also (like Happ, Slater started out at 2B, and moved to CF in the minors). And Happ’s 24 HR last season was impressive, but would he duplicate that at AT&T? And he struck out 129 times in 115 games. As for Zobrist: A placeholder until Arroyo is ready is fine, but the Giants already have several like that – Sandoval and Tomlinson – who could offer things Zobrist could not (Sandoval with more power, Tomlinson with more speed and as much versatility). And Zobrist will be 37 next May (Sandoval is 32, Tomlinson is 27). I don’t see it.
The only scenario that makes sense is one where the Giants get Stanton, even if they must give up Cueto and Panik and/or prospects (and some cash) to do it.
A few things I disagree with here:
DeleteCessa does throw 96 MPH and gives pitching depth both as a starter or reliever. Beede/Suarez MIGHT be that, but have no MLB experience yet.
I would not call Panik superior to Castro or Castro inferior. Panik is probably a bit better overall, but not by a lot. He would likely be MUCH better in Yankee Stadium than AT&T.
I like Steven Duggar and Austin Slater, but they are not in the same league as Ian Happ.
Sandoval and Tomlinson are not comparable to Ben Zobrist, even what's left of him.
Starlin's fWAR last year was 1.9, Panik's was 2.0. Also, I don't see why Chris Shaw would block Austin. One can play 1B, the other LF. Again, depth comes into play here.
Delete1. The Yankee deal sounds good. The Giants get a good replacement for Panik in Starlin Castro and 2 good young prospects in Cessa and Austin. Austin is probably blocked by Greg Bird at 1st base and Mr
DeleteJudge in RF. 2. I like Happ in the Cubs deal but wouldn't do it without getting pitching back for Cueto.
LG
Sorry to disagree, but I think; as of now, I believe Tomlinson is a better fit for the Giants than Zobrist. 36 yrs old hits .232 in Wrigley compared 27 yr old .258 at ATT.. Defense and speed favors the young guy! I don't even want to think about losing Panik. He might be one the best No. 2 batter the NL...
DeleteMost fans tend to be irrationally exuberant about players already on the team they root for.
DeleteBTW, Duggar and Tyler Beede both made BA's AFL Hotsheet today.
ReplyDeleteHere are the related excerpts...
DeleteSteven Duggar, OF, Giants
Team: Scottsdale
Age: 24
Why He's Here: .313/.389/.875 (5-for-16), 4 R, 3 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 SB.
The Scoop: Duggar got off to a slow start in the Arizona Fall League, going 2-for-16 to start the season. But the speedy center fielder has five multi-hit games in the past eight games. Duggar is now second in the league with 17 runs scored and third in the league with nine steals (in 10 attempts). Duggar is a legit center fielder with speed and on-base skills who isn't that far away from San Francisco. (JJ)
Tyler Beede, RHP, Giants
Team: Scottsdale Scorpions
Age: 24
Why He's Here: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 SO
The Scoop: Beede was sent to the AFL to make up for the innings he lost to a groin injury this year. After an awful first start, Beede has allowed only one run and six hits in his last nine innings. Beede hasn't shown a plus pitch in the AFL, but he does has a well-rounded repertoire with a fastball and curve that can both be above-average. (JJ)
Anyone alarmed by that description of Beede not having a plus pitch? Is he still being held back or is he what he appears to be, a solid above-average pitcher with no plus pitch?
DeleteCardinals really need to shed some OFers. They have an overload down their system. Randal Grichuk has played a lot of CF -- is he "good" there? Would they trade Pham?
ReplyDeleteCueto looked really good in a Red hat!
I wouldn't. Living here in St. Louis, Grichuk is a major topic of the Cardinals sport fans and radio hosts. Basically, he teases then fails because he's got a giant hole in his swing:
Delete"We all know Grichuk’s tendency to swing and miss at the low, outside breaking balls (left heatmap, since 2015). It’s a massive hole that most pitchers can fairly easily exploit. But he has another massive hole on fastballs above his hands (right heatmap, since 2015). Put them together, and his whiff heatmap looks like this:
... (Graphic doesn't come forward)
That’s approximately three-fourths of the plate where Randal Grichuk really struggles to make contact. His map is a pitcher’s dream: he can go with the fastball up almost anywhere across the plate or with sliders that dive low and away. He just can’t miss between the knee and hip on the inside corner. Pitchers do miss sometimes, and when they do, Grichuk has to take advantage. Sometimes he does."
Grichuk has a 75% hole in his swing that the Cardinals haven't been able to fix despite three years trying. Get it in his wheelhouse, he'll crush it. Then he'll go 1-for-21 as pitchers constantly owne him. As a CFer, he's okay, but above average as a defender in the corners. In short, he's a 4th OFer.
Trivia: Grichuk, btw, was the player selected right before Mike Trout.
It was somewhat odd that it was the Halos that selected both Grichuk and Trout as late 1st round picks that year. Living in Hawaii, we get Halo telecasts and got to see both players break in to MLB. Grichuk didn't do much for the Halos though, so he got traded away.
DeleteLG
Trout makes me sad: one of the pre-draft speculative articles mentioned that the Giants were interested in Trout, though we ended up drafting Wheeler, I believe. Still, most of baseball whiffed on Trout, he was way in the back of the first round, if I remember right, as well as the Angels choosing someone else first, in their back to back picks.
DeleteThere is what? 23 teams that are sad over Mike Trout? If you had a do-over for the 2009 draft, he would be the clear #1 although Strasburg was not a terrible #1 overall. There must be something all those scouts and front offices missed on Trout. Goes to show how crazy hard scouting, drafting and developing players is. Although I will say this. I saw Mike Trout play at age 19 in the Cal League and he as clearly an elite prospect at that point.
DeleteI wonder if too many scouts get hung up on projectability and discount present physicality?
I am worried about trades for trades purposes. I get Stanton is a big time player, but I'm not sure he changes the nature of the game for us. Just too many holes. And if we give up too much for him, then we not only have holes now but holes later. Honestly, I've loved Panik since he was in the minors, was relatively early to say "watch this kid" and I see no reason to get rid of him. It isn't just about talent, of which there is plenty, but as much about heart and soul. We lost that when we traded Duffy and we really have to be careful about dong that (IMHO).
ReplyDeleteFor me, I think we need to give Slater, Duggar and Shaw a chance. I'd rather eat salary (cut Spann) then make bad trades. The only thing I'd try to do is dump Cueto's salary. I wouldn't really try to hard if it meant giving up anyone we cared about, but I'd certainly be ok taking less back. We need Beede or one of the other kids in the minors to take hold of that spot (btw, what do you make of Stratton now that he's been up for a while)?
I agree about taking on any more long-term multi-million dollar contracts - they always end up regretting it by the back end. I like your lean and mean approach and I like Stratton.
DeleteThe first trade I don't think does much to make us better and Panik is still pretty cheap. I would look for something else in return for Panik if they really want to trade him. Belt would be the obvious choice to dump and I really could care less what they get back for him. His contract looks much worse than Panik's and we have options to replace him so if they got a bullpen arm or 2 or a few mid level prospects I would be fine with that.
ReplyDeleteThe most interesting player in all of the rumors for me would be Ian Happ. If Chicago is really trying to trade him then I would first try to dangle Shark and see if they wanted to do a deal around Happ and Zobrist. If they don't take Shark then maybe Cueto but I would like a little more in return. Stanton isn't the answer unfortunately but if they can't get Happ I wouldn't mind Ozuna or Yelich....
My problem is all the baggage. I've been rooting for the 49ers, Giants and Warriors since '66. For most of my life all three teams got the worst of the trades. Some of the highlights:
ReplyDeleteOJ Simpson, worn-out and broken, for two years worth of top-picks.
Robert Parrish and the #3 pick (turned into Kevin McHale) for the #1 pick that landed us Joe Barry Carroll.
Gaylord Perry for some dude whom I can't remember.
So I really struggle with trade talk. I know we've had some good ones. But I think we've lost far more than we've won....
I rooted for the Cardinals from 1946 (yes, I'm that old) until the glorious improbable win in 1964 after the debacle of Stan Musial's last year in 1963, when StL won 19 of 20 to make an ugly home showdown with the Dodgers in September after 152 games.
DeleteThe ending was sad, much like much of my later life as a
Giants fan, but the wins that followed for the Cardinals were sweet like the 2010-2014 run with the Giants.
I think Yogi said that the it's hard to predict, especially about the future, but for the Giants NOW, they won't get back to the 3-of-5 success without a bold move.
It might not work, but is not doing anything a solution?
I acknowledge the emotional weight of Moses’ half-century of often justified trade dread but I think the current Giants FO has been doing well. My semi-expectation is a trade of Belt to Boston for the defensive whiz (who also can hit) Jackie Bradley Jr. and a re-signing of Nunez, whom I prefer to a late-30s Zobrist at a much higher salary. Nunez can keep 3B warm for Arroyo. The Giants would save ca. $10M, as I recall, by swapping Belt for Bradley. Re-signing Hundley would take a bit of pressure off finding a Belt replacement by freeing Posey for more 1B duty, such as he had in 2017. Span and Slater then share LF, or Slater and (if ready) Shaw; or conceivably, Slater in RF, with Span and Pence sharing LF. This minimalist scenario leaves the team a bit more money for a regular 1B (conceivably Shaw) and a bit of pitching help.
DeleteI like that rumour about Jackie Bradley Jr for Hunter Strickland - that'd take all the pressure off the CF and OF worrying. Even better, trade Belt for your CF. I think you've got to keep Cueto and hope for Bumgarner and Cueto best #1-2 pitching punch in baseball that they are supposed to be - then you've got Samardjiza, Stratton and Blach and move Moore to long relief. Span to LF, Pence one more year in RF, Austin Slater as 4th OF. Panda/Posey 1B, Panik 2B, Crawford SS and Panda/Tomlinson/Arroyo 3B and bring up Arroyo if Panda sucks. Re-sign Hundley and use him like last year. They can win without spending more.
ReplyDeleteJBJ has three years of Arb left and is a year removed from being a 5 WAR player.
DeleteIt’d take a lot more than Strickland.
The Giants need about 30 more wins to get to the playoffs, not to the NL West championship, but to be a meaningful playoff team.
ReplyDeleteYou can quibble around the edges, but winning less than 90 games doesn't get you a ring too often. It can happen but you need a lot of luck because you're NOT the best team. Or even in the top 6.
Without a trade where will the wins come from?
Say, optimistically, 10 for a healthy Bumgarner all year. 5 for a healthy Cueto (even more optimistically?), 3 for a productive Moore, maybe 3 for an effective Melanson, and 2 for Smith, 2 for Belt, and a couple more for the rest of the infield. None for the outfield. No more for Posey.
That makes 30 but everything has to go well. BABIP gets neutral, you can't ask for more.
So if most everyone is healthy and does better and luck doesn't go awry maybe this team will make the playoffs.
Maybe catching the Dodgers for the West isn't possible no matter what, maybe the vagaries of the wildcard and the rest of the playoffs is good enough.
Was 2016 satisfactory to you? Not to me.
The team has to get better.
Arroyo? Duggar? Parker? Sandoval? Pitchers named xyz? It's not poker -- you can't win with a bluff.
Do the Giants need to get better externally?
Where?
That's what is intriguing about Stanton. Interesting.
But, he would come with tremendous risk - maybe not for 2018,or 2019, bur for the decade of the 2020s?
Would a win in '18 or '19 or both be worth the risk?
If not, what is the alternative?
Where will the wins come from?
10 wins is peak Koufax. That’s not happening.
DeleteI do not care about the Panik trade. I have no problem with trading him, especially to the Yankees, which is his boyhood team. And he would love that RF.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a lot of problems with Castro. I believe we are taking on a lesser player here, worse defense in particular, perhaps similar enough hitter in terms of OPS, but lesser hitter in that he strikes out a heck of a lot more, and does not get on base at an elite level as Panik does. He would be a step down from what the Giants said they were working on, moving the runners along.
My main problem is that de also costs a lot more, he's at $11M this season, and Panik is projected at $3.5M. That will take up most of our budget space before we go past the CBT threshold.
If I'm taking on a lesser player (he's older too) in a number of aspects, then I would want some pretty good prospects coming back in return. Austin is interesting, but hasn't really done that much in the minors (only #16 NYY prospect in BA 2017; was released by the team after 2015 because of his injuries that slowed up his development, and he missed half the season in 2017, was he sitting on the bench or injured? I do't know). Cessa is a nothing prospect, hasn't done much of anything in the minors, he's a project, as he had a 3.0 BB/9 in AAA, and that wildness showed in the majors, 95 MPH is nothing if he can't control it.
If we make such a trade, either the Yankees are taking Span off our hands, or they need to give us much higher prospects, I would want Top 10 prospects for a proven hitter like Panik who gets on base at an elite level and plays good defense to boot.
About Stanton trade talks, I'm with DrB in that the contract scares me. Then again, all the big long-term contracts the Giants have gotten into scared me, except for Posey and Bumgarner (Bonds, Nen, Durham, Alfonzo, Benitez, Zito, Rowand, Renteria, Cain, Lincecum, Pence, Melancon; I'm sure I've left out a number). Also, as much as I love the long ball (my first baseball prospect love was a speedy power hitting Dave Kingman), I don't think the Giants need power, they just need their guys to be hitting and healthy (once Panik started hitting, after two months of meh, the Giants averaged 4.5 runs scored until Belt was DLed; that's enough to win with good pitching). But that's the rub, there just seems to be so many injuries, every other year.
ReplyDeleteAs for the cutting out the middleman, I'm OK with trading Cueto as long as there is a plan to get some sort of replacement. Say, if we somehow sign Otani. Chatwood would be an interesting signing, couldn't expect him to replace Cueto's production as co-ace, but could be a nice add to the rotation.
I'm OK with Zobrist, but he's a huge risk at $29M for the next two seasons, and his hitting went down precipitously in 2017, one of the worse since he was starting out, meaning he could be no better than a Sandoval for the next two seasons, but at Panda salary.
Ian Happ is a very interesting prospect, but the BA 2017 prospect guide called Happ "defensive-challenged", though perhaps that because he hasn't been an OF for very long. UZR has him as a plus CF, as does DRS, so perhaps his speed helps him play well in CF. Speed and power, that's a lot of goodness, only 22 YO, wow, I think I would do the trade if Zobrist wasn't involved, as that would free up a lot of budget for us. And they don't have a lot of dollars committed to the 2018 payroll, so they don't need to dump salary other than to try to stick us with it. I would do the deal straight up for Happ, but if we take on Zobrist, then they need to take on Span.
They are in greater need for Cueto than we are for Happ, at the moment. We could go for Bradley or Hamilton, and I would be OK with Jarrod Dyson in CF, platooning with Slater or Williamson. As I believe we need the defensive boost in the OF, though a nice offensive boost would be even better.
And a Belt for Bradley trade seems doable, just based on players involved, plus it would reduce our payroll.
But I don't see why Boston would do it, do they have another good CF waiting? I know they can use a 1B like Belt, he would be a big upgrade for them over Moreland. Benintendi played the most CF in Bradley's absence (he missed about a month of games, assume he was injured), but he's horrible defensively in CF. They do have Rusney Castillo in the minors, who was once projected to be a starting CF, but he doesn't hit for much in AAA and is already 30 YO for next season, so it can't be him, but he played the most CF in AAA for them, and the next was a 33 YO. And neither guy in AA look ready either.
Oh, OK, Mookie Betts has played CF before, and at above average DRS and UZR, so they could move him back there, and use someone else in RF. So I can see this working as a trade, other than I don't know what they feel about their payroll commitments, but they are below the threshold by a good amount, even with Sandoval and Castillo as two big contracts with no value.
Seems like there could be a possibility for a 3 way trade here. If NY wanted Panik and Cincinnati was willing to give up Hamilton for a package around Castro we could have our leadoff hitter and CF. Open's up 2B for Arroyo or Tomlinson or potentially someone they acquire in a future trade and gives us the CF we need defensively with a spark at the top of the lineup.
ReplyDelete"Per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, via Twitter, the clubs (Marlins/Giants) are discussing Giants prospect Heliot Ramos as a possible element of a hypothetical return for Stanton."
ReplyDeleteHope this is just silliness.
Stanton is not worth one legit prospect. That contract...anyone willing to take it on, well, good luck. Giants give up Ramos AND take on the contract, and they will have lost it.
The addition of Stanton to this team will not nearly be enough to make this team a serious playoff threat.
I would be crushed if the Giants traded Heliot Ramos. He's the first complete CF prospect I can recall the Giants having since, well, since Willie Mays!
DeleteThe thing is, the Ramos is getting pretty rave reviews from many, many sources. Very early in his career, obviously, but people like what they see so far.
DeleteI hope the Giants have the patience to see Ramos all the way through. The speed at which they gave up on Fox is a little troubling.
Actually, can the Giants even trade Ramos at this point if they wanted to? I thought there was a restriction on newly drafted players. Something along the lines of they have to stay in the drafting organization for a full year. Is there a restriction?
Just looked this up, in case anyone is still tuned into this thread.
DeleteUntil 2015, drafted players were required to remain in the drafting organization for a full year.
Now they just need to remain in the drafting org until after the World Series.