Black Friday did not materialize in MLB's free agent market as the waiting game continued. While we continue to wait, here are 5 free agents likely to give their new teams buyer's remorse:
Eric Hosmer, 1B. 28 yo. 2017: .318/.385/.498, 25 HR, 6 SB, 9.8 BB%, 15.5 K%, .351 BABIP, UZR/150= -0.4, 671 PA.
If you are a GM who thinks Hosmer can put up a fWAR of 4.1 every season, then you might be happy to spring for MLBTR's projected contract of 6 yrs/$132 M. But Hosmer's fWAR's for the past 5 seasons are 3.2, 0.0, 3.5, -0.1, 4.1. You also might want to take a hard look at that BABIP and ask yourself what happens if it regresses to the mean. There are other reasonable 1B options on the market projected to get less money including Yonder Alonso and Carlos Santana. A GM who is thinking about signing Hosmer to a contract like this should be frantically trying to reach Bobby Evans to see if Brandon Belt is available.
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Yu Darvish, RHP. 31 yo. 2017: 10-12, 3.86, 186.2 IP, 10.08 K/9, 2.80 BB/9.
MLBTR projects Darvish to get a contract of 6 yr/$160 M. That's way too much for too long for any pitcher, and Darvish, while he is very good, is not quite one of the elite SP's in baseball. While it is probably not rational to get too hung up on his WS performance, it was awful. Team's thinking of signing Darvish to that kind of contract should be looking at Tyler Chatwood, Juan Nicasio, Alex Cobb and Jhoulys Chacin who should be available at a fraction of the price.
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Jake Arrieta, RHP. 32 yo. 2017: 14-10, 3.53, 168.1 IP, 8.71 K/9, 2.94 BB/9.
2 years ago, Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball, but his velocity has been declining while his ERA has been rising. MLBTR's projected 4 yr/$100 M is payment for past performance. As bad as Darvish's projected contract is, this one may be even worse even at 2 yrs/$60 M less. The same alternatives as for Darvish apply here.
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Wade Davis, RHP. 32 yo. 2017: 4-2, 2.30, 58.2 IP, 12.12 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, 32 Saves.
Despite the increasing reliance on bullpens, especially in the postseason, investing big money like MLBTR's projected 4 yrs/$60 M for Closers is always a bad idea. This contract would be only slightly less likely to bust than Arrieta's above.
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Lance Lynn, RHP. 31 yo. 2017: 11-8, 3.43, 186.1 IP, 7.39 K/9, 3.77 BB/9, BABIP= .244.
MLBTR's projected contract of 4 yr/$56 M is considerably less than for Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. It's still a bad contract for the signing team. Just say no and call the agents for Chatwood, Nicasio or Chacin.
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Desperation leads rational people to emotional mistakes.
ReplyDeleteNine teams made the playoffs last year who didn't win it all -- how many GMs believe their team is but a signing maybe 2 away from the ultimate prize?
How many teams who didn't make the playoffs are but a stud and some luck from getting in -- since "we" believe the Giants just 2 losses short of 100 can do it, doesn't everyone?
That's the fab-5 above will get their payday and some exceed what MLBTR projects.
That's where the Giants will get the CBT space to dream about an absurd trade for Stanton and Gordon -- someone will give them a CFer for Cueto and his contract, then they will follow Doc's advice and get Hundley and Chatwood.
We talked a little baseball over turkey Thursday and the unanswered question:
ReplyDeleteHow to bat Posey-Stanton.
3-4? So the opposition has to pitch to Buster, no more getting him to chase to get that lonely runner home, or at least to 3rd.
There was no unanimity!
If it comes to pass, I will do the math, but you definitely want your top power/RBI threat hitting 4'th and you want your top 3 OBP guys hitting in front of him.
DeleteIf Stanton shows up here, and if he's going to continue his 2017 performance...I worry about a kind of a Bonds situation developing. I don't see any bats here to protect him, especially with Posey hitting 3rd.
DeleteWell, the Sabers say there is no such thing as lineup protection. I disagree, but it works both ways. Stanton in the 4-hole would create opportunities for other hitters that just did not exist last year, or the year before. Think of it this way: There are probably less than 10 hitters in all of baseball who could make opposing teams feel forced to give Stanton a pitch to hit.
DeleteQuestion: if you were the Giants' GM and Lorenzo Cain weren't a FA, would you trade Cueto even up for him (for Cueto's contract)?
ReplyDeleteWould you trade Panik for Dee Gordon?
The Cain question isn't entirely academic because it could, effectively, be done: given the lack of sterling quality FA starting pitchers -- everone has an asterisk of some sort -- you could probably trade Cueto for a player to be names later and use his money to sign Cain.
A Panik-Gordon swap would solve two problems for the Giants: a lead-off batter and some speed.