The day after the World Series ended, Justin Upton decided to not opt out of his contract with the Angels and accepted an additional guaranteed season. Essentially, the Angels converted an option year into a guaranteed year which changed the contract from 4 guaranteed years totaling $88.5 M to 5 guaranteed years at $106 M. With an AAV of $21 M, this values Upton at an average WAR of 3 over the course of the contract, which is not unreasonable. He will be 34 years old in the final season of the contract.
Upton is coming off his second best season by fWAR in his career at 5.0. His fWAR's have ranged from 1.6-6.3 over the last 9 seasons so he has run a bit hot and cold, but an average of 3.0 over the next 5 seasons, while not a great bet is not a bad one either.
Upton's signing probably sets the market for JD Martinez who is the same age and whose fWAR's have ranged from 1.8-5.0 over the last 4 years.
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Johnny Cueto has to decide by tomorrow whether to opt out of the 4 years/$84 M left on his contract with the Giants. There is actually more demand for pitching this offseason than hitting so Cueto has to be looking at Upton's contract and wondering if he can do better on the open market. The major difference being that Upton is coming off a good season and Cueto not so much. Cueto has hinted that he would like the Giants to make a similar move as the Angels and guarantee a 5'th year when he said negotiations are still required. I would hope the Giants would not do that as Cueto will be 36 years old by that time. There is a high probability that Cueto's contract will be a sunk cost by the 4'th season let alone 5'th. Stay tuned! A lot hinges on Cueto's decision. If he stands pat, the Giants are not likely to make any expensive acquisitions this offseason. If he opts out, it makes something as big as a trade for Giancarlo Stanton at least thinkable.
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I was wondering when you were going to start Hot Stove. I heard about the Upton thing this morning. All the ESPN radio announcers thought the Angels were smart and they thought it sucked that the Cards wouldn't have a shot at him this year.
ReplyDeleteTanaka signs, making Cueto more valuable in thin market.
ReplyDeleteFunny that Johnny thinks Giants actually might want him to sign!
What do you think?
Which do the Giants want Cueto to go?
If 2017 is any indication, out years look really bleak!
I think the Giants are probably OK either way, but would not be heartbroken if he opted out. From what I've read, they assumed he would opt out when they signed him and even slightly frontloaded the deal to make it easier for him. I think there is a better than even chance he bounces back from last year and still has a good year or 3 in him. The Giants should absolutely not guarantee that 5'th season if that's what it takes for him to not opt out, though.
DeleteI will say it won't be that easy to find a replacement for him in the rotation if he does opt out.
DeleteIf Cueto opts out, that's a "Get out of Jail Free" card.
DeleteGiants Guarantee that 5th year, and man, do I want to sit across from them at a poker table.
This is just a thought, but I think his odds of opting out might have increased just a little with news that Tanaka is opting in to the rest of his contract with the Yankees. You say pitching is in higher demand than hitting, which I agree with. So with one less big arm on the market, Cueto might have a bigger shot at a larger contract.
ReplyDeleteCoach B
We won't have to wait long to find out.
Deletew-a-i-t-i-n-g
DeleteIf he says nothing, he stays, right? He has to take action to opt-out?
We will hear nothing, it will just pass into the night. No celebration, no fanfare, nothing will happen.
Wonder if the Giants will make comment when JC don't do nuttin'
Waiting the full 3 days implies, perhaps, that he wants to stay and with the rumors he wants the final year guaranteed, he's waiting for that (or something) to happen.
ReplyDeleteMy bet: the Giants don't and Johnny does.
Please opt out - the Dodgers would buy him to replace Darvish - Bumgarner, Samardjiza, Stratton, Blach and Moore could be a winning rotation - bullpen should be stronger with Melancon and Will Smith back - see what Curt Young can do with Osich, Okert, Crick, Dyson, Gearrin, Strickland, Maronta. Probably would have to deal at least Panik in a trade for Stanton but could pick up Howie Kendrick and you still have Tomlinson for 2B.
ReplyDelete