Fangraphs posted stats yesterday of how many DL Trips and Days Lost for each team in 2017. In discussions regarding what the Giants need to do this offseason, we've had a vocal contingent saying the biggest problem last year was injuries. If the Giants just keep the gang together and they stay healthy, voila! They're contenders again! Bruce Bochy has made several comments this offseason blaming much of the Giants 2017 problems on a succession of injuries. Now, maybe the Giants injuries just happened to the wrong people at the wrong times and therefore had more impact than other teams' injuries, but by sheer numbers, it wasn't the injuries!
The average number of days lost to injuries last year in MLB was 1061. The median was 1035. The Giants lost 1001 days to injuries, just a bit below both the average and median.
Conclusion: The Giants poor record in 2017 was most likely not due to injuries.
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Were the Giants unlucky in 2017? Well, yes they were. If you remember, when we did our midseason series on What Went Wrong, we pointed out the unusually low hitting BABIP for the Giants coupled with an unusually high pitching BABIP. Those numbers improved in the second half without an improvement in W-L, but overall, the Giants were at least moderately unlucky on BIPs. The Giants final hitting BABIP was .294 against an MLB median of .303. Their pitching BABIP was .308 against a MLB median of .298. It wasn't all luck as their horrendous OF defense contributed to the high pitching BABIP and explains why they are so intent on acquiring a top defensive CF. But their record should be significantly better with league average BABIP's on both sides of the ball.
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Wrong players hurt?
ReplyDeleteSituational hitting bad BABIP?
No ACE?
NO POWER!
Bumgarner, Panik, Pence, and Span for Stanton, Gordon, and an OFer?
I, respectfully, disagree with your conclusion that the Giants poor record in 2017 was most likely not due to injuries....
ReplyDeleteI believe that the Giants suffered not from injuries, but the wrong injuries. For example, they were plagued by poor OF defense the whole year - unusual for the Giants in the recent past. Just take a look at one of their biggest problems going in to 2017 - they needed a LF that could hit a bit and play good defense. Jarrett Parker had a great spring and got the opening day job. Then, in mid-April, he breaks his clavicle running into the wall to make a spectacular catch (he held on to the ball). Goodbye April, May, Jun, July. Comes back in mid August, and hit well (he cut down dramatically on his strikeouts and had a number of game winning hits when he did play). Then came Mac Williamson. A bit of a streaky hitter, in need of AB's. Then he got hurt. Then came Austin Slater - he hit well, and fielded well, also early on. Then he got hurt. And what of the guy we all wanted to see - Steven Duggar? Well, at the end of spring training... he got hurt (flexor tendon). Then he came back and, in his rehab assignment... got hurt (hamstring). Any one of these guys could be a candidate for heir apparent in LF, if only they can stay healthy. One can say the same about Christian, the guy the Giants would like to anoint as the heir apparent at 3B. He showed promise, along with a need for more seasoning in AAA, and then... he got hurt.
It seems to me that a case can be made that the Giants could have developed at least 2 good young OF's and a good candidate for 3B - yes, two of their biggest needs going into 2018 - if only they could stay healthy.
Duggar, Slater, Parker (he was assigned to playing in the Domincan Winter League, but has played only one game - early on - so he may be hurt again) could all be legit OF prospects - perhaps not great but good - if they could just stay healthy (not unlike the Cardinals situation last year). At times, some of these guys showed as much promise as Adam Duvall did. They may just need consistent AB's (yes, Bochy may be to blame for part of that, but it is fair to say that the injuries severely limited what Bochy could do).
So I believe that injuries - the wrong injuries - were indeed a big part of the Giants problems last season.
That's a nice theory, but unless/until you go down a team-by-team analysis of every injury like you just did for the Giants, completely unprovable. The point is, all teams have injuries. The Giants actually had fewer than most teams last year. The good teams have backup options. The Giants did not.
DeleteAs for OF defense, a huge part of that was Denard Span in CF. That was due to a slippage in talent, not injury, at least not injury that occurred during the 2017 season.
I don't buy the injury excuse either... Look what happened with all the Dodgers injuries?
DeleteWell, the Dodgers are a whole different story. More than a few people believe they were using the DL for an R&R program in the second half of the season.
DeleteWhen a national sports writer weighs in on my team, I think to myself, well, you don't know the team up close and personal like I do. One national writer speculated that the Giants came out flat in April after losing in quite dramatic fashion to the Cubs in what I think was a winnable series. The writer parked the whole thing on that tough loss that ended SF's season. I said, no way, but when you're a team that's been chasing playoff berths since 2009 and fighting through 3 gritty World Series runs, I wonder if the air didn't come out of the team after losing to the Cubs. And sheer talent wasn't going to cover up their lack of drive. I don't know; just a thought.
ReplyDeleteThe thought that the Giants deflated throughout all 2017 because of the season’s end in 2016–that thought not only indicts the professionalism of the team, I think, but certainly ignores a half-season of pratfalls after the All-Star break in 2016, prior to the Cubs series. Moses’ argument,that injuries kept the Giants from dealing with the critical positions in LF and 3B, not to mention the rotation minus Bumgarner and Cueto, rings true to me, but ignores the 2016 half-season flop; and DrB’s rejoinder, that good teams have depth but the Giants do not, complements rather than argues against Moses’ arguments. With an able left fielder and a nimbler Pence in RF, some of Span’s inadequacy in CF would have been compensated for, because they could have caught balls that he couldn’t get to near their areas; and with depth, Span could have been platooned more or moved to LF.
DeleteWhatever happened during the 2016 All Star break, from then on the Giants were terrible!!! Chemistry?? The team has been so stoic since then and created a work attitude instead of a play attitude!!!!
ReplyDeleteI am sure it is complicated but I agree some air seemed to go out of the tires at the All-Star Break in 2016 and they never re-inflated. My pet theory is that Bochy has been in a psychological funk since losing his homeboy from the 3B coaching box. If true, it's probably only part of the dynamic.
DeleteIt's kind of funny, 2016 was lost by not having a closer, so Giants got a closer (with mega mega bucks) and didn't fix the closer!
ReplyDeleteNot having guys to fill in -- other than C, and he didn't get hurt -- amplified the injury problem: no one for Pence, no one for Span, no one for Belt, no one for Crawford, no one for Panik, no one for 3B, no one for LF, no one for closer, no one for Smith, no one for Bumgarner, no one for Cueto.
Funny, though, how strong the catching was and that's supposed to be THE vulnerable position.
Power and speed, get some power AND some speed, some how.
And don't rely on ONE guy, imagine having Stanton behind Posey! Or Bryant, or Bonds!
Agree with Doc that injuries didn't cause the poor record. The Giants lost a whole bunch of games in 2016 since they led the league in blown saves. Analysts have said that those type of loses are the hardest for teams to get over. Ive wondered if this was also a contributing factor to their 2017 woes as well.
ReplyDeleteLG
i think the bochy and the giants will be parting ways if 2018 is more of the same. the front office not committing to a rebuild might only make matters worse and could end up like the phillies or the niners for the next few years
ReplyDelete