This one probably doesn't even need to be written up. The Giants have SP slots 1-4 locked up for 2017 with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore. They are not going to spend good money on a 5'th starter no matter what and they have a couple of in-house options with more waiting in the wings in the minor leagues.
Make no mistake. Matt Cain will get his chance to win back a rotation slot, but he will have a short leash as the Giants seem to be itching to give Ty Blach a longer look after his spectacular late season and postseason success. They also have Clayton Blackburn and Chris Stratton waiting for shots and if Tyler Beede starts the season strong in Sacramento, he'll be knocking at the door. I think they will probably also find a way to keep Albert Suarez who did a pretty average 5'th starter's job last year when he was needed.
Oh, the Giants will probably bring in a guy or two on minor league deals just to keep people honest. They always do. Just who that might be would be like finding a needle in a haystack. Last year it was Suarez and he had a terrible spring training, but ended up spending most of the season in SF.
So that's it for the offseason. Barring a complete makeover of the team which there is not hint of coming from the front office, the Giants have a very short offseason shopping list, most likely beginning and ending with Closer.
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Chris Stratton is looking real good in the AFL. Nice slider. I think he is going to make a real good impression this spring and force his name into the conversation of 5th starter or more likely long reliever. Blach and Stratton might force Cain to take the position of paycheck collector/ team cheerleader like Peavy was toward the end of last season. I wish Cain would regain his 2012 form, but I doubt its going to happen. Weird how back in the spring of 2011 we thought Timmy, Cain and MadBum were going to be an elite 1-2-3 for a long time for the Giants. That sure didn't happen.
ReplyDeleteI have read good things about Stratton in the AFL. I think he may have a shot at a long reliever role next season at some point.
DeleteI was one of the few who was not thrilled about the extension they gave Matt Cain. He had a ton of mileage on his arm and was already becoming more reliant on secondary pitches that he often hung in the strike zone. I was also very relieved they never signed a long term contract with Timmy. I know this is heresy of the highest order, but I feel much the same way about Bumgarner. I know he deserves more, but from a pure management point of view, it would make a whole lot of sense to get two more years of premium MadBum at a bargain price then let him go in free agency.
Funny you mention that, a lot of clubs are doing that with pitchers now. Draft them high, get them up young, ride them then let them go. The reason being is that block-buster long-term pitching contracts seldom pay off the full value for clubs in that the front-loaded 'high performance' doesn't accrue enough 'WAR value' to offset the poor performance on the tail end of the contract, especially as pitchers are high-injury-risk players.
DeleteJohan Santana is a great example. He signed a big contract. Great first year. Second and third were solid. Blew his shoulder up, pitched poorly and missed the final two years of his contract and has been out of baseball since, despite trying with the Orioles and Blue Jays.
As Giants fans we, of course, have seen what happens. Except 2012, Zito didn't do much for the Giants. Cain gave us one good year then problems started happening. Cueto hasn't gone to pot and out WAR'd Bumgarner this year.
With all that said, I'd like it if the Giants resigned Bumgarner. He's got a low-effort type of delivery so is less likely to end up with shoulder or arm problems. I can see him pitching well into his mid-to-late 30s.
Agree completely with MoseZD. MadBum has a low effort delivery and should have a long career. Which is weird, because I remember reading somewhere, when he was still in the minors, that his arm angle when he pitches might lead to injuries. Go figure.
DeleteThat may be true, but for an effortless delivery, Bumgarner has been known to grunt rather loudly when he delivers the ball. I remember when everybody said Matt Cain is a horse and wouldn't get injured and that Timmy's delivery was so refined it took the stress off his arm. Pitchers are pitchers and they all tend to break down eventually. Not saying Bumgarner will, but the odds are not in his favor in the years beyond his current contract.
DeleteThe other thing about Madbum is he is kind of stubborn and I can see either hiding or trying to pitch through an injury and doing more damage at some point. Madbum or not, the odds on these types of deals are just not that favorable to the team giving them so I'd be leery as well.
DeleteBilly Baseball
Hi Dr. B,
ReplyDeleteWhen healthy, do you see Chris Heston figuring into this equation? If not, why?
Thanks
I see Heston as a fringy pitcher at best. I know he had a great run in 2015, but I think they may have had more to do with the league not knowing him yet than anything. I think several other pitching prospects have moved ahead of him on the depth chart.
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