One of the more interesting card games being played out this offseason is one with multiple players and seemingly endless permutations of possible plays, the CF position. The options in the deck of cards range from one of the elite players in the game, Josh Hamilton all the way down to the likely non-tender of former Giant Andres Torres. As Giants GM Brian Sabean ponders his moves, he has a nice little hole card sitting in his back pocket named Gregor Blanco.
It's a bit mystifying how a guy who is capable of providing plus defense in CF and 30+ SB's with a MLB career OBP of close to .350 was sitting out there amongst the flotsam of minor league free agents last offseason, but his signing by the Giants had as much to do with their championship run as any they made. Of course, almost every decision Brian Sabean made last year turned out close to sensational and he also made a great trade of the aforementioned Andres Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez for Angel Pagan and here's where it gets interesting this offseason.
There are certain code words in hot stove conversation that generally mean your favorite free agent player on your team is not coming back. When a player who is already being paid several $ million says he "has a family to think about", the translation into plain english is that he is probably going to sign with whoever offers the most money. "Testing the market" is generally another sign that he's looking for, and will probably get, more money than his current team is willing to pay. Now comes word via MLBTR(Buster Olney) that the Giants are uncomfortable with the number of years Pagan is looking for. Now, I'm not ready to bid good-bye to Angel Pagan just yet, but the tide definitely seems to be carrying him farther out to sea so to speak.
Brian Sabean is a guy who likes to get his ducks in a row early and he has a long history of being willing to overpay in order to accomplish that goal. So, why isn't he opening the checkbook for Pagan? Well, for one thing, CF's are not exactly flying off the shelves like discounted HDTV's on Black Friday. Josh Hamilton has the talent and track record for a massive 9 figure deal, but there's that pesky issue of his struggles with drug and alcohol addiction which keep re-surfacing that make teams hesitant to make that kind of commitment. Michael Bourn and BJ Upton are in the next tier, but they are both expecting contracts in the high 8 figures and they both have their warts too. In that market, Angel Pagan is seen by several teams as being a possible value option, which perversely raises his price out of the "value" range, especially with the evil visage of Shane Victorino lurking in the shadows. Add in Denard Span, Peter Bourjos and Dexter Fowler who may be on the trading block, as well as the aforementioned non-tender candidacy of Andres Torres, and a fairly extreme buyer's market is emerging for centerfielders, at least until the first couple of dominoes fall.
With Gregor Blanco already on the roster as a first year arbitration eligible player, Brian Sabean is sitting in the catbird's seat here. Worst case scenario is he can move Blanco's plus D, his Bill James' projected .346 OBP and 30+ SB's to CF and leadoff in the lineup. Blanco won't hit with quite as much authority as Pagan, but Pagan was not exactly an OBP machine leading off. Sabes can then look to fill LF which is generally easier and cheaper, thought not necessarily this year.
Of course, if Sabean waits until someone is left standing when the music stops and all the chairs are taken, he can get his CF on a contract that does not block possible future CF's such as Gary Brown. Blanco might not be the ideal LF, but his defensive value was evident in the postseason. With a middle of the order consisting of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and an emerging Brandon Belt, the Giants may have the luxury of turning LF into a huge defensive plus with Blanco patrolling out there. Then again, Blanco also makes an ideal 4'th OF who can play all 3 defensive positions, be a late inning defensive replacement in LF and allow both a Pagan and a more offensive LF to really juice this lineup.
Gregor Blanco puts Brian Sabean and the Giants in a commanding position to wait out the OF market this offseason while also not worrying about how much Hunter Pence is going to cost in arbitration.
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You're right, Blanco gives us a lot of value; and for Sabean, a ton of flexibility. Having Blanco as our CF/leadoff is not such a bad thing. And if Pagan does get resigned with little money leftover, having Blanco in LF isn't a bad configuration either. What we lose in offense is made up for with superior defense and the flexibility to upgrade at a later time.
ReplyDeleteRight now, Denard Span is my CF target. Assuming it wouldn't take Brown and/or our top 3 pitching prospects, he's got youth, defense, speed, and the ability to leadoff. However, he's not so prolific that it would (presumably) take trading the farm to get him. Pagan then becomes my second choice. If that doesn't happen either, my preference would be to just go with Blanco in CF and grab someone like Hairston, Ludwick, or (gasp) Victorino for LF.
Much as I hate to say it, I think Hairston is LF is a great choice as long as he's not too expensive. It kills two birds with one stone, so to speak. He's a modest offensive upgrade in LF and he's not out there killing the Giants anymore! Signing Victorino would be worth it just to read Bacci's reaction. LOL!
DeleteNY Post beat writer said that Hairston is looking at 2/8MM! Yikes! With the Red Sox and Yankees as the new bargain basement shoppers (Yanks are apparently in on Hairston) what is Sabey Sabes supposed to do?
DeleteI am trying to go look at Victorino's B/R page and make some rationalization for having him but I just can't stomach it.
Great analysis of the CF market, and you're spot on about Brian Sabean and his ducks in a row. That tells me they are higher on their own prospect than the pro-am scouting community, and they want to save a spot for him. Now this has blown up in the past, but Belt and Crawford breaking through should remind us this isn't our Grandpa's Giants farm system!
Read today that the Yanks are in on Jeff Keppinger, of all people! Yet another Giants castoff. Man, they is really scraping the bottom of the barrel now!
DeleteBTW Shankbone,
DeleteSaw a mock draft today that has the A's taking Phil Ervin with the pick right in front of the Giants. I could see that happening.
I could see em taking Andrew Mitchell. Hey, that is exactly the pitcher Kyle Crick could have ended up with a couple years college ball. Although that Garrett Williams guy mocked a couple spots in back really had a nice crack on his bat in the Klima vids.
DeleteOops, I meant Justin Williams. Both those guys are prepsters from LA. If Garrett can add a bit of velocity he could go top ten I bet. LH pitchers are one of the strengths in the 2013 draft.
DeleteMayo has a new top 50 up on MLB. I don't think his rankings are always accurate but it's a great place to see quick vids and get familiar with the big names.
Looking through the Mayo guys, I have to say I like some of the college guys more than the HS this year. The Gonzaga lefty looks smooth, Mitchell or Ervin look good. Hopefully the Stanford guys will clog up the early part and the teens, bumping some better talent to us. I think this Sean Manaea might be the best pick in the draft. Don't think he's getting back to us though. The HS guys I will follow with interest are Hart, DeMerritte and Justin Williams on the hitting side. Pitching I really like Brett Morales and short-dog Kaminsky. But there is some interesting college talent this year. Go look at the mlb video of Lorenzen and then tell me who you see? That guy is a definite Giants look I think.
DeleteOh, I really like this draft from the perspective of a team like the Giants who is "stuck" with a low first round pick. The top 5-10 is really weak though, so all the draft experts are calling it a weak draft because the top 10 is 90% of what they pay attention too. With the new draft bonus rules, though, a team with a top 10 pick who isn't digging the top 10 talent can go underslot with a signability pick then spend more in subsequent rounds which is what a lot of teams did last year, particularly Houston.
DeleteBut yeah, I think there is a lot of interesting talent that goes all they way through round 2 or even later.
Thanks, I'm starting to get excited about the upcoming College/high school baseball season.. Hawaii is moving from the WAC to Big West Conference in 2013.. I'm looking forward to seeing this Michael Lorenzen kid from Fullerton.. Aaron Judge (Fresno St) is a nice prospect too.. His scouting report talks about his power potential but this kid showed a nice approach at the plate too hitting to all fields.
DeleteFYI - BIG LEAGUE FUTURES lists a high school kid by the name of Kean Wong.. He is Kolten Wong's younger brother who is draft elgible and signed to play for Hawaii in 2014. I'm keeping an eye on him because that family starting from his dad Kaha Wong have pro baseball experiernce
LG
Playing for Hawaii worked out real well for Kolton Wong, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his lil' bro do the same thing. Aaron Judge is interesting. I'm just suspicious of whether hitters who are that tall can control the strike zone at higher levels.
DeleteLG - looking at Kean Wong for sure! Hawaii has a great recruiting class, a mix of Socal guys and natives like Wong and hopefully Marcus Doi. Looking good for you guys, that move to the Big West should be fun to watch.
DeleteNames like Hairston and Victorino being thrown around are making me queasy, and I don't think it's the leftover stuffing. Blanco is the ultimate fourth outfielder, awesome D, good speed, pesky hitter. I'd be fine with him as a starter too, but the Gs would need some kind of offense from the other outfield spots. Pence is streaky. G Brown isn't ready yet. Is BJ Upton too much to hope for?
ReplyDeleteWhatever the Giants limit is on Pagan is as much as they are going to spend on the OF this offseason. Pence is a stretch, but they will make it happen. If they can keep Pagan at a reasonable price, they'll do that too. Beyond that, I do not expect any major splashes in the OF. It will be value guys and dumpster dives. I'm actually OK with that. I think Sandoval, Posey and Pence provide a solid middle of the order and I expect Belt to progress toward becoming an offensive force too. Giants don't have to have all-stars and/or big contract guys at every position.
DeleteToo bad about our plans for draft picks getting scuttled on Melky and angel, but flags fly forever.
DeleteI agree, no need for a big splash in the OF. Pence, Blanco, Brown, Peggs and Roger K is a nice start, supplement as necessary. I'm not a big fan of the Jason bay project - I think he is done. It is funny, the entire Gints blogosphere was yelling run away from Ryan Ludwick when sabes was kicking tires last year. Well, he is set up for 2/12MM now...
Presumably we do have the money to pay Pagan 5/60. If Sabes and the office chooses not to, do you see the money getting spent in another area? What position could use an upgrade other than the OF? Just off the top of my head, i'm not sure the Giants think Romo is durable enough to close full-time. Could the Giants make their strength stronger and pursue a backend power arm possibly? Maybe an upgraded utility man?
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think we let Pagan walk for that type of cash, especially with Brown down on the farm. Save the money now and get get another 3rd starter type when Vogey ultimately is just old or Timmy walks... Blanco is a nice piece for us, but I think we are in a better position with him as 4th outfielder, maybe platooning in LF and CF?
Thoughts?
It sounds like the sticking point with Pagan is years rather than $$$/yr. If they let Pagan go and move Blanco to CF as a placeholder for Gary Brown, then I think they try to modestly upgrade LF. Personally I would like to see one more strong RH arm in the bullpen. I might be inclined to trade one of the lefties, most likely Mijares, and replace him with a power RHP.
DeleteOh ok, that makes sense with the $$$/yr. Great blog you got going here, I'll have to make a profile sometime soon.
DeleteI agree we need a power righty in the pen. Casilla is hot and cold and obviously Wilson can't be counted on. If you would trade a lefty who would be a target? I think targeting a bullpen arm has to be the hardest thing, as Sabes always finds gold just lying under rocks. We'll see!
Speaking of gold lying under the rocks, I'm really liking this kid Fabio Castillo who Sabes picked out of the Rangers organization on a minor league FA deal.
DeleteI'd prefer Bay on a flier to Hairston for LF. I am not interested in either for more than a 1 year deal.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I've been looking at Bay for the right price too. Agreed on 1 year deal for Bay to see if he can rebuild his value. I think it would take at least 2 years to sign Hairston.
DeleteGreat comment over at a Niners site on Harbaugh going with Kaepernick at OB.
ReplyDelete"This reminds me of Bochy benching Timmy in the playoffs and going with his best players. Managers who have the balls to make big decisions are the ones that win."
Well said!
Smith is a safe guy who will get the Niners to the playoffs, but if they want to take that next step and take it all the way, Kaepernick is the guy who has the tools to take them there. Gotta go with Kaepernick's ceiling and the sooner the better.
DeleteThe Niners may have gotten a steal drafting Kaepernick. I remember him during his days at Nevada tormenting Hawaii with his great talent. He was always a tremendous runner with the football.. The question with him at times was the accuracy of his passes.. I'm sure that Harbaugh and his staff have been working with him to improve in that area.
DeleteLG
And Bill Walsh had as big a balls as any coach/GM in any sport, with his philosophy of getting rid of good player one season ahead instead of one season behind.
DeleteAs the Seifert/Lott mistake showed, you also had to be good at evaluating when a player don't have much left in his tank and not just follow the rule for the sake of following it.
Why not Victorino? This guy reminds me a lot of Pagan actually with the tools he brings and his attitude. He has passionately hated the Giants throughout his career so why not turn him from the dark side! He would probably be much cheaper in years and $$$ and could play CF or LF while contributing either at the top of the lineup or 6th.
ReplyDeleteMuch like Pence, I think his passion was being wasted on teams like the Phillies and Dodgers who are filled with egos and zero chemistry. The Giants have a chemistry that withstood a complete lineup change between the 2 WS teams with the exception of Posey. I haven't heard many people talk about that maybe because there are so many other amazing things about last year to focus on but it should be clear that a guy like Victorino is much more capable of fitting in then a guy like Beltran.
I don't mind if Pagan doesn't return and I have liked Blanco ever since he started last spring on fire. Take a flyer on Torres if they feel the need to go cheap or throw some money at Torri Hunter. I won't be upset though if they don't make any big splashes this offseason but I would love to know if they have a plan to target a huge bat in the next 2-3 years. Money should be there by next year or the following at the latest and there could be some interesting names in 2-3 years. The Giants are probably in a better spot then most teams with key positions like C, SS, and 3B locked up with flexibility everywhere else to be able to break the bank should the perfect player come along.
Well, unfortunately Torii Hunter is already taken by Detroit. 2 year deal. I don't recall the $$$'s but my impression is they overpaid.
DeleteI don't think Victorino is the player he once was but I would be open to him being a Giant. It's kind of like John Kennedy choosing Lyndon Johnson to be his VP, "I'd rather have him inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in." LOL! It didn't quite work out that way with AJP, though.
Alright, I'll go look at his B/R page. But I'm not going to like it... And I do think he's cooled off considerably and you have to look at Citizens Bank Park hard on some of his stats.
DeleteI'd like to see opinions, of which there are so many and so easily to be had, backed up by facts and logic, which apparently are rarer commodities. Otherwise, everyone is shooting the breeze. Case in point: If Victorino is close enough to Pagan to be a reasonable substitute for him, wouldn't one expect him to be close too in price? If not, why not? Why should he be, as Pato claims (with no supporting argument) "much cheaper in years and $$$"? It's not as though he has been on the outskirts of GMs' consciousness over the last few years. If he is "much cheaper" than Pagan, therefore, the likelihood is that he's much riskier, perhaps because one doesn't know if his mediocre year in 2012 was an aberration or a harbinger. And if there is such added risk, can the Giants afford to give him a multi-year contract, such as Pagan wants, even if for fewer years than Pagan wants?
ReplyDeletePagan's numbers last year were shinier, but in trying to project for the future, the only difference in their performances was about 50 points of BABIP. So, it's certainly possible that Pagan will get a bright and shiny bonus in his contract, but you make a good point. They are similar players in both style and performance and should get similar contracts. Timing and market demand may be factors here too. At this point, I'd say chances of either one signing with the Giants is waning. We'll just have to see how the market shakes out. It sounds like Upton is going to sign with someone this week and that will probably start the dominoes tumbling.
DeleteVictorino is not a product of Citizens Bank. Very neutral splits actually. A tad more OBP but only a few points BA, and SLG almost a match. My only complaint (besides his personality) would be his arm, Pagan definitely has a much stronger arm. I would say they are very similar players overall, Pagan and Victorino.
DeleteEven though I provided no evidence I dont think many will argue that the expectation is for Victorino to get less money and years because of his performance in comparison to Pagan last year. You know as well as any of us Campanari that there are all sorts of deciding factors that go into why one player makes more then another with similar skill set. Did Rowand really make an extra 10-15 mil because he ran into the wall in CF once? Pagan made himself an extra 20 mil or so with his ability to lead off in the second half last year and I fully believe that Victorino could do similar in that spot at less $$ and I don't see that as a huge stretch.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise I have no problem with riding Blanco out until either Brown comes up or they find someone better. I would like to see a big splash at corner OF but then again we do have Pence so can't exactly say we don't have at least one good piece there. Pretty hard to go against Sabean now and whatever move he makes so I have no expectations other then he will get it done.
Sure, Pato, the expectation is that Victorino will be cheaper than Pagan; and while I agree that irrational factors affect salaries, my point is that the discrepancy between the expectations for P and V is likely because of a cost-benefit analysis that extrapolates from the most recent evidence. After 2012 V looks riskier than P, on this hypothesis, because he looks like a guy on the edge of decline (evidence: his numbers but maybe also maybe what he looked like at bat and in the field) while P looks like a guy who's at or near his peak. If so, and if the Giants are leery of giving P the years he wants, despite his being a current fan favorite in SF, then a fortiori they might be even more leery about giving V a competitive contract. Could V do something similar in 2013 to what P did in 2012? Sure. Is it riskier to predict that he will? Very likely. You may "fully believe" that he can do something similar to what P did, and GMs may fully believe that in giving him a contract they have a greater probability of being stuck with an expensive lemon.
DeleteHere the fact, as opposed to opinion and belief, that affects my judgment is Dr. B's discovery that "the only difference in their performances was about 50 points of BABIP."
With the OF market waiting for dominos to fall, Jon Heyman rumors us in on Swisher. 2 years ago I would have been ecstatic about this move. Now I am not so sure. At a price, it seems OK, but past 3 years on the deal it looks like a pretty big risk. I view Swisher as halfway to being a permanent 1B, his defense looks that shaky. Still, a dependable switch hitting bat is pretty nice, and they are obviously looking at LF on this one. I bet they're keeping the iron hot to cover themselves for Pagan falling through.
ReplyDelete