While winning a second World Series Championship in 3 years is more than enough chicken soup for any Giants fan's soul, the season also could not have gone better if the team was in the depths of rebuilding as the Giants made significant additions to the long term core of their team. It was winning while reloading all at the same time as Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford survived numerous ups and downs to solidify starting positions into the future while Hector Sanchez, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and George Kontos added seemingly long term solutions to team depth. The result is that GM Brian Sabean goes to the hot stove poker table with a strong hand and very little need to make risky gambles. Here's how it stacks up:
C Buster Posey- This is Buster's first year of arbitration eligibility, but he is under Giants control for 4 more years. Only decision for Sabes is whether to go year-to-year or sign a long term deal. MLBTR's projected arbitration salary: $ 5.9 M.
1B Brandon Belt- Belt is pre-arbitration eligible meaning he will play for near minimum MLB salary next year. Made significant progress in his first full season as a starter.
2B Marco Scutaro?- Scutaro is a FA who has said he wants to re-sign with the Giants who have said they want to re-sign him. The extra money from the postseason should help get a deal done unless some other team wants to overpay like crazy. Ryan Theriot could be a cheap fallback option or there are several other decent 2B FA's on the market. Joe Panik is probably the 2B of the future although he's stayed at SS so far in the minors.
3B Pablo Sandoval- Pablo is under contract for 2 more seasons. I expect a huge breakout next year as he seems to be serious about staying in some semblance of shape and he does not have any more hamate bones left to fracture.
SS Brandon Crawford- Improved in every phase of his game as the season progressed. His defense was a difference maker in the postseason and he continued to get timely hits on the biggest stage possible. Pre-arbitration eligible.
LF Open- Gregor Blanco ended the season as the starter and his defense was a weapon in the postseason. Questionable whether his offense is what you want from LF long term. Could be a fallback option for CF if Pagan leaves. Melky could be a steal of a deal here, but if I had to bet, I would bet on him not coming back.
CF Angel Pagan?- There seems to be mutual interest in re-signing Pagan, but he will have suitors out there willing to spend some $$$ to sign him. The failure of the Giants to make a qualifying offer and Pagan's comment that he has a family to take care of could be signs that a deal is not a slam dunk. Also, it seems fairly clear that the Giants view Gary Brown as their CF of the future and they could view a long term deal for Pagan as blocking Brown and therefore problematic. He will probably test the market and get paid.
RF Hunter Pence- Pence has one last year of arbitration eligibility. His MLBTR arbitration salary projection is $13.8 M which makes you pause, but whether they go 1 year through the arbitration process or work out a long term deal, Hunter Pence will be the starting RF in 2013. Forget about any talk of moving to LF. Like it or not, he's gonna be the RF.
SP Matt Cain- 2013 will be the first year of a 5 year/$100 M contract with an option for 2018.
SP Tim Lincecum- Last year of a 2 year contract. Timmy will get a $4 M raise to $22 M in 2013. Forget talk of him moving to the bullpen. He'll be in the rotation, at least to start the season.
SP Barry Zito- Last year of his mammoth non-albatross contract(can't call it an albatross when the Giants have won 2 WS with it). He'll get a raise of $1 M to $20 M. Option for 2014.
SP Madison Bumgarner- Signed through 2017 for a total of $35 M but slated to make just $750 K in 2013. Team friendly options for 2018 and 2019 to boot. Wow!
SP Ryan Vogelsong- Will get a well deserved $2 M raise to $5 M with a team friendly option for 2014. I couldn't be happier that after all these years, Ryan is going to ultimately leave the game with some financial security.
RP Sergio Romo- 2'nd year of arbitration eligibility. Should get a nice raise from $1.5 M with his closer experience. Do the Giants try to buy out the remainder of his eligibility?
RP Santiago Casilla- Final year of arbitration eligibility. Negotiations could be contentious as he gained closer experience but ultimately lost the job. Do the Giants try to buy out his final year with a 2 year deal?
RP Javier Lopez- Final year of a 2 year contract. At $4.25 M.
RP Jose Mijares- Arbitration eligible. MLBTR's projected arbitration value, 1.6 M. That might be a bit steep, but Sabes and Boch love their LOOGYs so I expect him to be tendered a contract which might make Affeldt expendable.
RP George Kontos- Kontos is pre-arbitration eligible. He ate some big innings and got some big outs, even in the postseason. He's a lock for a bullpen job next year.
RP Brian Wilson?- Arbitration eligible, but he's coming off his second TJ surgery and MLBTR projects his arbitration salary at $8.5 M. I can't believe the Giants will tender him a contract at that rate. If they don't, he's a FA. He'll probably be looking for a 1 year "pillow" contract to rebuild his value. There could be mutual interest with the Giants for something like that with some incentives.
RP Jeremy Affeldt?- Affeldt proved down the stretch and in the offseason that he is much more than a LOOGY as he was able to get RH batters out and go more than 1 inning in an appearance. Giants want him back and he probably wants to come back, but he fired a warning shot by making it clear he will be looking for a multi-year deal. He will be testing the market. Giants have a track record of being willing to pay a premium price for LH relief pitching, but does the presence of Lopez and Mijares make Affeldt expendable this time?
RC Hector Sanchez- Hector was an unexpected luxury in 2012 and will continue to be a luxury for 2 more seasons before he becomes arbitration eligible. A mystifying anti-Hector sentiment arose on some Giants oriented internet sites as the season progressed, but make no mistake, the Giants know his value and their assessment is the correct one.
RIF Joaquin Arias- Arias proved to be an invaluable reserve for the Giants in 2012. He's arbitration eligible but should come at a reasonable price. Expect him back in 2013.
RIF Ryan Theriot?- Riot may have gotten frustrated with close to zero playing time down the stretch, but ended up being a World Series hero scoring the clinching run. Could be a fallback option if Scutaro ends up going elsewhere but Riot might want to shop for a reserve role that has more upside if Scutaro does re-sign.
ROF Gregor Blanco- Blanco was the starting LF in the postseason, but it's hard to imagine him holding down that role for a full season. He could be an option in CF if Pagan goes elsewhere, but his ideal role is probably 4'th OF. Arbitration eligible, but at a reasonable price. He'll be back.
ROF Xavier Nady? Frankie Pegs? Roger K? 5'th OF is probably the most wide open roster spot on the team. The possibility of competition for the starting LF role adds to the intrigue.
Summary: The 2013 roster is set except for 7 positions- LF, CF, 2B, 2 RP's and 2 position bench jobs. Probably the biggest offseason decision for Sabes and ownership is whether to use the postseason loot to buy a bat for LF. Affeldt may be the FA they can least afford to lose with Scutaro second and Pagan third. What to do with Wilson could get a bit dicey, but it seems clear that the Giants should not tender him a contract before arbitration.
Let the roster speculation begin(since we're trying to be a family friendly site, we won't call it by that other well known name)!
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This is my favorite time of the year. I love the excitement of what roster changes may lie ahead. I believe Scutaro stays and Affeldt and Pagan leave. Pagan seems to want a Rowand type contract (60m over 5 years). I do not think he will live up to that contract. Yes he will steal bases and hit triples but he won't hit for average and has little power. Ok, now for the Josh Hamilton rumors. This most likely won't happen. Although the idea of 5 years at 25 million is intriguing. The value he brings in power, hitting for average, and in marketing revenue is exciting. I would be 100% for it but I think he will get more money and years somewhere else. I think Bourn's value is in his legs and he is getting old for CF. I think he is not a good fit long term. Upton's power numbers, baserunning and defense are attractive but his BA scares me. I do think he is a better fit than Bourn. I like Affeldt but I think he is done as a Giant. I think we should extend Lopez if Affeldt leaves. I like Mijares and he is young and fairly inexpensive. I really like Belt but I think he should stay on a short leash. We need better power numbers from a corner spot. He showed very little this year. If by June he still hasn't found his power I think we should upgrade In a trade unless we have a sizeable lead in the division. I am a big fan on not changing if it is working. That was the Dodger's problem in 2012. His defense is great but I think we deserve a little more. How about giving Duvall and Dominguez time at first during Spring Training. Oropesa is a few years away. Oropesa's power is impressive. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteYou can put Josh Hamilton in my Do Not Want bin.
DeleteGiant free agent/player decisions:
ReplyDelete-Pagan - Let him walk, too streaky for a 10M+ a year for 3-4 years.
-Scutaro - Re-sign him 2 year/10M. He is getting better at his age. A true professional that is exactly the right role model for Panik to emulate/learn from in ST.
-Affeldt - Re-sign 2/10M with option, He is an expensive piece, but the bullpen was so strong and a critical strength of this team. Huge influence in the clubhouse too.
-Melky - let him walk, don't want to taint the clubhouse.
-Wilson - Re-sign on an incentive based deal.
-If can keep Affeldt, then see if someone will overpay for Casilla in a trade. I would be interested in a deal like Detroit's OF Brennan Boesch for Casilla.
Additons:
-I expect both Torii Hunter and Shane Victorino to be contacted early about a 2/20M deal to see who will sign first to fill either the CF or LF vacancies. The Giants have shown to prefer getting outfielder with CF quality defense.
-I also would be intrigued about Ichiro on a 1 year deal to play LF, but kind of feel that Blanco is similar for a fraction of the price.
Lineup:
Victorino/Blanco CF
Scutaro 2B
Panda 3B
Posey C
Pence RF
Belt 1B
Hunter/Boesch LF
Crawford SS
Arias/Hector/Blanco/INF/5th OF
Cain/Bumgarner/Linceum/Vogelsong/Zito
Romo/Lopez/Affeldt/Kontos/Mijares/Hembree/Wilson
I'm kinda hoping for Shane Victorino just to read Bacci's reaction. LOL! Seriously though. I do not want Shane Victorino! I would be OK with Torii Hunter on no more than a 2 year deal and Ichiro on no more than a 1 year deal. Still think Jonny Gomes could be a bargain in LF.
DeleteThe other bargain for LF... Wait for it... Scott. Hairston.
Deleteneither hamilton or the evil hawaiin punch midget are coming to sf.
Deletehairston would be a great buy...for 2 years
hunter or ichiro? isnt torii injury prone now? and i think ichro will stay with the yanks
i like gomes too
i would love bourn...not gonna happen
i expect to be surprised. no one called the torres for pagan or durty for melky trades and no one knew blanco from a hole in the wall
would love it if they could retain riot...giants are best when their is a cajun on the field. but for a guy who is constantly on the move, he is a very valuable asset and will probably get a nice deal as a utility elsewhere
thats right its me
Agreed on Scott Hairston. Can the Giants please sign this guy already so he quits bedeviling them as an opponent?
DeleteTorii Hunter has played at least 140 games every season except for 2009. Don't know if he might have had some nagging injuries but he played well in his 140 games in 2012. He's 37 yo. I'd take him on a 2 year deal to play LF.
DeleteBacci - I called the Pagan trade. Almost. Didn't include Andres, cuz I liked him so much. And Blanco was on Hector's team, his stats wuz getting followed over at MCC.
DeleteTori Hunter could provide some great value methinks. I would hope for a 1 year deal, but that might be unrealistic. At some point though, the Giants might be able to sell the "come win a ring" line. And the Yanks, free from Swisher, are most likely in hot pursuit.
Bourn's UZR ratings are out of control. I cannot escape the feeling he will be a terrible signing, as speed does fade, and if there is one knock, he's not quite a pie-thrower, but his arm ain't no cannon.
I can't help but make a Sabean joke on Ichiro. We will not. N.O.T. be signing that veteran Japanese OF.
I'm with ya'll on Jonny Gomes. I think that is the best bang for the buck, and a lot of fun to boot.
If you go way back to my early Hot Stove posts from last year, I identified both Melky and Pagan early as possible trade targets. I was a bit surprised(and happy) with who the Giants traded for them, but not at all surprised by the acquisitions. Shankbone was all over Pagan from the get-go.
DeleteMLBTR says that Dodgers are pursuing Torii hard, but have given up on Dempster already, though still in on Greinke.
DeleteNow it's turning out that maybe there was more interest in the Dodgers from Torii Hunter than there was from the Dodgers in him.
DeleteAm I right in recalling that a team forfeits a first-round draft pick if it signs a FA whose 2012 team has made a qualifying offer to him? That is, would we lose a first-round pick by signing Upton, Bourn, or Hamilton, et al.? In the discussions about going after other teams' FAs, I haven't seen much about this cost, which perhaps also includes the loss of a big chunk of the money allotted for bonuses to draft picks. Given that the Giants will have a pick near the end of the line in the first round, how much should this penalty--if I'm remembering it rightly--affect our roster debates (a family-friendly euphemism)?
ReplyDeleteWell, if you are really going to go for the downs and sign a Josh Hamilton, the draft pick is a miniscule factor. For practically everybody else, I think it becomes a significant deterrent.
DeleteYeah, if you lose the draft pick, you also lose the cap allotment.
It shouldn't go down from last year, where #27 pick was slotted at 1.675MM. Lot of dough in terms of the pool for the ten rounds. And, while we're at it, lets spitball what a Pagan comp pick would have brought - there are 9 players who received these qualifying offers - it looks like 3 will accept (Ortiz, Kuroda and possibly Soriano). Say 6 teams grab players, those teams picks go poof, and then its tacked on at the end... In this scenario the Gints #27 pick might become a #21 pick (1.825MM last year) and their comp pick would be around #32, assuming Pagan is the last guy. #32 last year would have been a slot of 1.55MM.
DeleteIn that scenario I assumed every team would be below the Gints, allowing them to move up, there could be the #28-31 picks going poof obviously. But I also assumed Pagan was the last guy in the supplemental comp, so those two would even out. But not offering Pagan the qualifying could end up costing the Gints the 32nd or lower pick in the draft as well as 1.5MM-1.8MM in bonus pool.
This is not a criticism by me, just trying to figure it out. I am a bit mystified by not offering, but it maybe they just see Pagan as a 3/24MM and are not comfortable with him accepting 1.5X their #. I always say go $ not years, so its not my first choice, but there maybe more in play at this time.
they put back in the loss of a draft choice? i thought the union was dead set against that...maybe thats why the giants didnt put in the qualifying for angel...good faith gesture
Deleteon the hard cap...arent posey, trout and harper arguments against the cap? havent they all pretty much earned those bonuses?
bacci the accountant
Here's the rule as it has been clarified at BA and MLBTR: If a team signs a player who has a qualifying offer with their current team, they lose their first round draft pick and it doesn't go anywhere. They just lose it. They also lose that first round bonus cap allowance. Top 10 picks are protected. If a team loses a player it made a qualifying offer to, it gets a supplemental round pick that comes after the 6 "small market" supplemental picks and it picks up that supplemental round bonus cap allowance.
DeletePersonally, I would have made a qualifying offer to Pagan, but I can see arguments against it. We'll see what he ends up signing for.
Yes, Bacci. The cap is stupid. A craven agreement between the MLBPA and MLB to keep all the money inside the club. You have to break into the club to get to the money. Since amateur players and minor league players were not represented at the negotiations, the little guys got the bad end of a raw deal. Ironically, it also hurts successful mid-market teams like the Giants who could otherwise use some of their loot from the postseason to go overslot in the next draft or sign a few extra international prospects, not that the Giants have ever used their extra money that way.
And more clarification... I was wrong. Here is the order of events: first round, then the Competitive Balance Lottery Round (6 picks), THEN the supplemental qualifying offer picks, THEN the 2nd Round, then the 2nd Competitive Balance Lottery Round (6 more picks), THEN the 3rd Round.
DeleteSo my scenario is jacked. Pagan would be the tail end of the supplemental qualifying, because its determined by team record not the signing team's order, so he would be in the mid 40s, say #44. That pick's bonus pool allocation was 1.165MM in 2012. So there it is, you have to weight an overpay on the player versus that reward. And as much as I am a grab everything you can with the draft type of guy, I have to lean towards OGC's view and say this is not that big a deal in this case.
The CBA is obviously set up to eliminate some of the draft games teams used to do, such as Tampa's flood a bullpen on the FA market, collect six extra picks. They threw teams like Tampa and Oakland a bone with this competitive balance lottery. But as the Giants were completely dissinterested in these type of games, the CBA should straighten out in our favor, where it is nothing but scouting versus scouting. Obviously last year's draft caused some arguments, due to the Giants a) playing it straight and b) avoiding all HS prospects.
The thing about them HS prospects, they do take time to develop. With the Giants being set up to be competitive the next five years, there are going to be some knocks for prospect loving fools, because the Giants will most likely accelerate their eyes on advanced college players who can contribute quicker, unless there is a huge value proposition presented to them.
For every Posey, Trout, Harper, there are one to two dozen more like Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, Matt Bush, Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller, Billy Rowell, Phillippe Aumont, Matt LaPorta, Kyle Skipworth, Jeff Clement, Wade Townsend, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Nelson, Thomas Diamond, Delmon Young, Kyle Sleeth, Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Ian Stewart, Bryan Bullington, Chris Gruler, Adam Lowewen, Clint Everts, Scott Moore, Drew Meyer, and that's just trolling through the drafts from 2002 to recent drafts for Top 10 picks that have flopped greatly.
DeleteOr lets just look at Posey's year, picked before him, Tim Beckham, still in minors, Pedro Alvarez, 0.8 WAR, .738 OPS in 318 games, Hosmer, 0.6 WAR, .730 OPS in 280 games, Matusz, 0.8 WAR, 5.36 ERA in 86 games, 1.52 WHIP, and they all got bonuses pretty close to what Posey got, as they were drafted ahead of him. Posey already has 12.1 WAR in roughly 2 seasons worth of games (18.0 WAR is what I have defined as a good player's threshold; bb-ref says 2.0 WAR is average and therefore good, so that is 9 average seasons, 7 seasons roughly at 2.5 WAR, 6 seasons at 3.0 WAR).
How about some speculation on who should be on the 40-man roster? There are currently 32 names on the list, of which 10 can be removed with little regret. This could be their first time I can't think of 40 guys I want to protect.
ReplyDeleteAnon #1
Not sure who all of the Giants minor leaguers need to be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, but yeah, the 40 man roster is littered with names like Brad Penny and Shane Loux who could be dropped and not missed.
DeleteOops! Take that back! Penny and Loux are not on the 40 man. There really aren't that many names I would want to drop. Maybe Petit? Otero?
DeleteManny Burriss? This is the year of decision on Conor Gillaspie as well. I love the fact that with Freddy and Huff no longer on the 40, Brett Pill is the 4th oldest position player, behind Whiteside (a definite candidate for removal), Pence and Blanco. But lets keep up the tired meme that the Giants hate young players.
Delete"the tired meme," which took a hit when the Giants effectually passed on Beltran, will renew its zombie demi-life if the team now goes for Ichiro and/or Torii Hunter on the FA market. Neither got a qualifying offer, so we would keep our draft pick, but both are likely to be costly as to salary and costly in a different way in that at their age, they may be fragile. Scutaro is enough for geriatric risk in 2013, I'd say.
DeleteGiants just waived Whiteside and the Yankees claimed him, giving them the Giants starting catchers from 2011, Stewart and Whiteside. The Yanks love defense minded catchers, they kept Jose Molina all those years as their backup guy, and I think one or two of their top pitchers insisted on pitching to him.
DeleteLOL Yankees dumpster diving for Giants extras.
DeleteJust a couple more names to think about out there. The D'Backs did not pick up Matt Lindstrom's option. He seems like a perfect project for the Pitcher Fixers. Andres Torres is being widely speculated as a non-tender candidate by the Mets. He could be available on the cheap.
ReplyDeleteDon't we already have a 4MM head case in Casilla who doesn't need any mechanical fixes?
DeleteTorres for sure. And... Nate the Great will most likely be cut loose by the Phils. Don't see that one happening though. Nate wasn't too happy with the BrainTrust, and I'm sure they noted his comments to csnphilly.
On the trade front, don't know how the Reds would line up, but Drew Stubbs is hitting arbitration, and has severely underperformed there. He might be a change of scenery candidate. After all, they have Billy Hamilton in the wings, and some serious expenses elsewhere. He's set to make 2.9MM estimated.
We'll see. If Affeldt and Wilson end up leaving, there could be room for both Casilla and Lindstrom in the bullpen.
DeleteDepends entirely on Lindstrom's salary demands. I bet he'll be expensive though. And RH bullpen arms are the easiest thing to replace in the majors. I think Casilla is trade bait #1, and I doubt the Gints want to pay him that arb amount. Maybe if they can buy him out on something like 2 yrs 7MM, but otherwise I think he's getting traded.
DeleteWhat is the projected budget for next years roster? This year was around 130 million so does it go up for next year? I hadn't seen Torri Hunter on the FA list but he would be a great option IMO. Could give us something similar to what Ellis Burks gave us for a couple of years. Burks wasn't an everyday player either but that right handed bat played well backing up Bonds and Kent for a couple years.
ReplyDeleteI'm OK with letting Pagan go as I would love to have him back but as you said Doc, he is getting paid. Scutaro is an easier one to resign, shouldn't take more then 2 years and even if he is a back up in his second year it will be worth it just having that guy in the clubhouse to rub off on Panik and Craw.
Blanco and Theriot are easy guys to resign as well and solid backups if they are accepting of their roles. I am also pro resigning Melky as I think he would be cheap and deserves a second chance. Otherwise Ichiro would be a pretty solid one year option. I would be thrilled with 2 of the 3 choices between Melky, Ichiro, and Hunter (assuming Pagan is gone).
All that said, this wouldn't be the worst lineup in the league and in fact could be one of the best:
Melky/Ichiro CF
Scutaro 2B
Panda 3B
Posey C
Pence RF
Belt 1B
Torri/Melky LF
Craw SS
With Theriot, Blanco, Arias, and Hector on the bench, there would be room for a guy like Gomes or a similar role player. It would also allow them to give someone like Pegs a bench role or keep another catcher like Whiteside. I'm not so worried about the bullpen or the starters, Bochy and Sabes have more then proven they know how to handle the pitching. I'm starting to think Sabes may know what he is doing on the offensive side as well....
As much of a good influence I think Scutaro would be on Panik and Crawford, I think he would have a bigger influence on Sandoval, being that both are from Venezuela and can speak much more easily given Sandoval's poorer ability to speak in English, than, say, Posey and Sandoval.
DeleteI would rather not sign Ichiro to play CF, he's played a lot more RF in the majors, so he's probably closer to average there defensively, probably below now that he's 39 YO next season. Even Torii is probably below average in CF now, I think I would rather have Blanco in CF, then I would prefer Torii in LF over Ichiro, if we are unable to sign Pagan to play CF.
But with Brown in the wings and looking good for reaching the majors in 2014, the Giants are probably not going to commit a lot to Pagan in terms of years or money, not with Blanco around, now that I'm thinking more about it. And the consensus appears to be that Pagan will get at least 3 years, which I think will put him out of the Giants range in both years and money.
As I said in reply to Shankbone above, I would like to see the Giants avoid the expensive aged, with increased propensity for DL time adding to their cost. Scutaro, fine; more fossilizing ex-stars, no.
ReplyDeleteHaving been watching Angels games a fair amount (they have some kid named Trout who is apparently going to be good), I was impressed with Torii Hunter this year. I agree that age should be looked at with a critical eye, but on a case by case basis, sometimes a little vet leadership is a good thing to give this young team some backbone. Hunter fills that good clubhouse part very well. He is also an excellent RF still, I think he would be a superior LF. He has that RH bat that allows us to balance out Belt, and I still believe RH power plays well at PacBell, even with us hitting the fewest in the majors, both overall and at home.
DeleteThere are some red flags with Hunter. His ISO is declining the past 3 years, his BB/K ratios are going the wrong way, and he is 37 and will most likely require 2 years. Still, this team has shown the ability to overcome 2 year albatrosses. If Pagan does walk, I say give Hunter a look, but don't go bidding against the Angels or Yanks.
Would love to keep Scutaro and Affeldt. We might overpay for both because of their late and post season heroics, but those heroics are why I want them back. They are not blocking anyone from the minors either. I assume Panik is still a year and a half from the big leagues and then he could learn from Scutaro for half a season. Mixed feelings on Pagan. He's going to want a 3 year deal most likely. I feel like he is the least likely to repeat his performance of this season; I am basing that only on the two slumps he went through this year. He would also block Gary Brown.
ReplyDeleteFree agent dream: Josh Hamilton. Stick him in left and in the middle of that order with Posey, Pence, and Pablo, that would be a formidable lineup. Bochy could keep him clean. I know that won't happen though. Giants are already close to their budget cap, so I doubt we will see any major moves.
Its always easy to dream on Josh Hamilton. When he's on, he's the best hitter in the game. But you have to budget 1/4 of the season for injuries. That is frustrating. You have the addiction issues. That is scary. You've got the crazy expense. And I can't help but look back on 2010 and 2012, and our pitchers just buzzsawwing some of the most hyped, best hitters in baseball. But I'm with you on that dream. Just don't see it as a reality.
DeleteAm I just being nostalgic or would it be worth the Giants having a look at Cody Ross for LF? He hit .267/.326/.481 in Boston with 34 2Bs and 22 HRs. Definitely not a long term guy but surely worth a punt at 5-6MM?
ReplyDeleteHitting pop-ups over the Green Monster is a far cry from trying to blast dingers out of AT&T.
DeleteYes, you are being nostalgic. He hit a puny .256/.308/.422/.729 against RHP, but he killed LHP as usual. But RHP is what most teams put out there, so most of the time he's a below average hitter in the lineup.
DeleteAlso, his numbers in 2012 were boosted by his home park:
Green: .298/.356/.565/.921
Roady: .232/.294/.390/.684, which means that he's a lousy hitter half the time, overall.
That adds up to a lot of time that he's not a contributor to the lineup of your team. He's ideally a platoon player with a lefty hitter, and he'll get most of the playing time when he is hot. But for us, Blanco doesn't even hit RHP as well as Cody, so Ross would be a full-time starter for us. He would have been good splitting time with Schierholtz in the OF for us, or as the 4th OF, ready to start if necessary (i.e. high floor replacement), but he's not so good as a starter, which is why he's never really been the starter for a whole season.
Also, he wants 3 years for $25M, and he would laugh at your offer (though when January swings around, I would bet he would take your offer, that is, if it were real :^). This sounds like a repeat of last off-season when he wanted a multi-year contract and ended up with nothing much from the Red Sox. This reminds me a lot of Rich Aurilia, when he went free agent, he was asking the Giants for 4 years and $40M (or something like that) and he ended up with a lot, lot less.
Ross is dreaming if he thinks he can get 3 years, $25M, he should be expecting more like what the Giants were offering platoon type players like Roberts and DeRosa, 2-3 years at $6M (maybe with inflation, $7M) per. He and his agents are probably hoping that teams will be spending that extra money that they get from the ESPN contract, and his great numbers in 2012, but teams should be more sophisticated now, able to see like we can that he was horrible away from Boston. He and his agents are misreading the market - again - and that should make it harder for his agents to get clients, you can't be so disconnected from the market.
DrBGiantsfan: Personally, I would have made a qualifying offer to Pagan, but I can see arguments against it. We'll see what he ends up signing for.
ReplyDeleteI don't get it. At the end of the season I thought it was a foregone conclusion that there would be a qualifying offer for Angel Pagan. At that point the worst case scenario would be we get a compensation draft pick. But, when I heard that the Giants wouldn't be giving a qualifying offer it made absolutely zero sense to me. You say that you can see arguments against it, please explain. Or anyone else who can please chime in.
I threw some stuff up above. Basically it looks like that Pagan comp pick is going to be in the mid 40s, and the bonus money attached to it is about 1.1MM towards the Giants pool. Weighed against that reward is the risk he'd accept. I've come to the conclusion the Giants are comfortable at 3/24MM, and at 8MM annually they don't see the reward in chasing the draft pick and having him accept 1/13.3MM, or less than half for one year what they are considering for 3. I am a big Pagan fan, but look at his negatives - 31 years old, not a ton of track record, and more of a tweener if he is moved off of center. He made the leadoff role work, but isn't the greatest at OBP, he played a nice center, but isn't a superior CF, and his baserunning is superb, but looking at aging into the 30s, speed guys can be a big risk because if that goes, their entire game goes.
DeleteThat's why I think they are going to make a fair offer that will most likely be dwarfed by other teams hungry for some CF action. The Giants have Gary Brown in the wings, they also have Frankie Peggs, who could be a nice platoon with Gregor Blanco, who might be a 4th OF, but the playoffs and the tail end of the season - it might have been his coming out party. Having the luxury of these options, as well as other options on the FA and trade market, allows the Giants to hold the line on Pagan. I love that (if what I'm saying is not total garbage) because it shows yet more discipline on contracts, something that has actually been excellent in the past few years for Los Gigantes.
My argument would be that Pagan might well accept the offer, and the Giants would end up paying him $13.3M for a one-year rental of his services. Pagan, in this scenario, would take the offer because
Delete(1) $13.3M is almost surely more than he would get on the open market,
(2) the market itself would be depressed by a team's having to forfeit a first-round draft pick in order to sign him,
(3) a good 2013 season would put him, at his age, in a pretty strong position to go back into free agency next year, with ample reward in the large 2013 contract for postponing free agency till then, and
(4) the likelihood that he would add to the sum by getting some post-season money from the Giants next October.
If the Giants want to talk long-term contract with him, furthermore, I doubt that they want to do it after effectively stating that he's worth $13.3M to them for next year. Nor do they want, I wouldn't think, to have to offer him a long-term contract plush enough for him to decide that the extra years are worth sacrificing extra money in 2013. How large a two or three-year contract would one have to offer to counterbalance a one-year contract at $13.3, with the opportunity of going back on the FA market next year at 31 (is it?) rather than two or three years from now?
Yeah, I think Shankbone and Campanari summed up the counter arguments quite well.
DeleteIf you believe in Fangraphs WAR based formula for player salaries, then Pagan earned well over the $13.3 M in 2012 and his average WAR over the last 3 seasons is right about at break even. I believe there is a reasonable chance that he will earn that much in WAR points again, so I would have rolled the dice and made him the qualifying offer then tried to work out a longer term deal for less/yr or else hope he takes a multi-year offer elsewhere and take the draft pick.
Again, I can see both sides of the argument, so I'm not going to get too worked up over it.
According to BA, the comp picks are right after the first round and then the competitive lottery picks. I was right the first time. Pagan would be somewhere in the mid 30s, net about 1.5MM give or take to the pool. I personally would favor offering him the qualifying, but I can understand passing.
DeleteI think we have to look to Sabean's history here - Vogelsong has shine through success. Reaction: go sign ex-Gint farmhands galore. Welcome back Boof Bonser! Huge success with trading for younger OFs - what will he do? I think we need to look at arbitration costly OFs in an age profile of 26-30, who can field their position well and have been offensively up and down. Drew Stubbs, Denard Span, those types of players.
I see both sides, and usually I would be on the get draft picks side, been dreaming about it with both Melky and Pagan. Now that its not happening... Eh, let it go. Lets see how Gary Brown's hitting mechanics are working themselves out. That's more important at this moment in time.
Denard Span is a good guess.
DeletePagan had a career year and I would be leery of signing him to anything more than a two year contract. Not only is Gary Brown likely to take over the CF job at some point soon, but Blanco is a perfectly capable fill in until that happens. I also think Frankie Pegs is going to get some play during spring training and Roger K is also in the mix, which makes overspending on an outfielder or two unnecessary. I like Pagan and would welcome him back, but if he leaves for greener pastures, it won't be the end of the world.
ReplyDeleteSomeone explain this to me:
ReplyDelete1) How does Angel Pagan's qualifying offer become 13.3 million for one year?
2) Who are your favorites to be the 6th starter should we have some injury issues to the starting rotation?
According to the new agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, the qualifying offer has to equal the average of the top X salaries in baseball for 1 year. This year, it calculates to $13.3 M. It could be higher than that, but there is no reason to make it higher unless you are negotiating a real contract, which you can still do at the same time.
Delete6'th starter? I'm guessing they will make several minor league contract offers and see who shows up in spring training. Beyond that, you're looking at Mike Kickham, Chris Heston, Chris Gloor or Eric Surkamp sometime mid-season.
Hacker took off DrB, do you think the Giants can retain Bonser and/or Petit?
DeleteIn normal circumstances Affeldt would be a luxury we probably can't afford, with Mijares and Lopez in the team adn Runzler in the wings. But the fact he pitches lefty is a bit of a red herring because he's not a LOOGY by any means, I prefer to think of him just as a good reliever, full stop.
ReplyDeleteBut I think with the uncertainty around Wilson the Giants will reach deal with Affeldt, I guess a 2/11 kind of thing. Affeldt can work in a committee, can pitch a full inning to any lineup as a setup or middle reliever, can work as a LOOGY, could close games if needed, he's fairly reliable, and he's much-liked at the club. Those are big assets for a bullpen in a bit of an uncertain position. The alternative is that the Giants are left very exposed if Wilson breaks down or is ineffective.
As for what happens with Pagan, I have no idea. Pagan will rightly demand good money and a 3+ year deal, and someone will give it to him. The Giants can afford that, but a lot will depend on their evaluation of Gary Brown. Personally I would be just about ok with Blanco as the starting CF next year, assuming there's a good chance Brown will be ready in 2014 and that we get a top quality bat in left field.
Two other factors help to make Pagan more expendable if he is too pricey.
DeleteFirst is that since Blanco can take over CF and be as good defensively, the Giants could look for a better hitting LF to replace Pagan's bat in the lineup, while taking a hit in LF defense. Nady probably would take a crack at that, plus Peguero and Kieschnick. And the Giants seem to find spare OF's easily.
Heck, Ishikawa is a free agent, had an OK season with the bat, we could move Belt to LF and play Ishikawa at 1B, where he would platoon with Posey again, much like 2012's scheme. That allows us to start Belt full-time without worrying about what to do with Belt when Posey needs a blow but we want him still in the lineup. Or heck, Adam LaRoche is available again.
Second is that the Giants offense in 2012 was able to take a hit on offense before picking up Pence and Scutaro, so they could do the same in 2013 without Pagan. Give the spare players their shot at taking the starting LF spot, but if nobody steps forward, then we troll the trade market for someone we can pick up for a high level prospect, like Heston, Gloor, etc, during mid-season. That gives our prospects a chance - heck, if Brown dominates in AAA early, he could rise to starting by mid-2013, pushing Blanco out of CF and into the LF competition.
All in all, I would rather keep him. As noted, the money is there, though if he gets more than 2 years, he will be blocking someone. But I'm not willing to overpay for him either, the Giants are not that desperate for his skills. It is nice but not necessary to continue to be competitive for the playoffs. I would prefer the Giants expend their negotiating energy towards signing Posey to a long-term contract into his free agent years.
Dodgers's deal for League makes Affeldt probably want more, though the Bums have been referring to him as a closer, so that helps to separate him from Affeldt in comparison. But given Jeremy's performance in the playoffs this year, he's probably going to want a bigger bump up than 2/$11M. I think 2/$12M is the minimum he will want but about the maximum that the Giants are willing to pay, maybe as high as 2/$12.5M, but $13M seems too high to me and so I don't think the Giants will go that high.
DeleteBut who knows, with an extra $10M or so from the playoffs revenues and probably another $10M in World Series knicknacks that they have been selling, and ESPN's extra $10M TV money or so, they might decide that they can go higher on Affeldt (I just don't see that happening with Pagan, though, as replacements appear to cover if he's gone, but I don't see Runlzer or Mijares as replacements for Affeldt, though perhaps Hembree might be considered a replacement).
I expect the Giants to have their numbers ready, with a short period for the agents to shop them. Then a counteroffer, and then its off to Plan B. Sabean has never been one to be patient with filling in the priority positions on his list, and I don't think that will stop. I think unfortunately Pagan is priced out of our market, he is great for a price, but you can't go chasing him into that middle market, thats the danger zone.
DeleteI agree, the more I think about it, the more Affeldt is the most valuable guy. I think its higher. I think its 2/12MM to start, and they are arguing back and forth for a third year or option/buyout.
As much fun as it is to make fun of Ned Coletti, if he lands Grienke the Doyers have a big piece, and they have the money to absorb mistakes and not even think twice. They will be formidable.
Some observations on this year's free agent crop: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8595489/putting-price-josh-hamilton-zack-greinke-michael-bourn-other-top-free-agents
ReplyDeleteIt cuts you off after Hamilton but gives you everything else that he notes.
News on the Giants, Sabean quotes! http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8605310/brian-sabean-says-hunter-pence-san-francisco-giants-next-season
ReplyDeleteHe must hate this part of his job, refuting idiots thinking that the Giants were going to non-tender Pence. Just didn't see it happening in this universe, don't know why the media makes such observations. Sabean also notes that he is optimistic about signing all three free agents.
There is also ESPN's evaluation of the Giants: http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8605431/mlb-winter-forecast-teams-national-league-west
Ugh, still with the Zito putdowns. And, wow, how the mighty has fallen, Lincecum is now a huge question mark! And this writer is smoking some good stuff, he also named Keppinger as a good OBP source!
Two more roster moves: http://www.csnbayarea.com/baseball-san-francisco-giants/giants-talk/Giants-send-Burriss-to-Fresno-Hensley-he?blockID=799075&feedID=2796
ReplyDeleteBurriss assigned to Fresno (thought he might elect free agency) and Hensley electing free agency. I thought we might keep Hensley around, but we are solid with Romo, Lopez, Mijares, Konotos, Casilla, and there are many vying for a spot, Hembree, Otero, Bochy, Runzler, plus there is Wilson too. Edlefson and Machi too.